Why I Avoid New IPOs

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Any thoughts on if and when SpaceX and Anthropic IPO go public? I've talked about IPOs quite a bit. I don't like IPOs. I don't touch IPOs. I try and get in on companies prior to IPOs. Right now, there's a little bit of a like this I don't talk about this very often because it's a little bit of an untested area with like the new like the deregulation that has happened recently that allows makes it easier for retail traders to get into private companies.

[00:00:26]There's a lot of potentially unreal equity. Like Anthropic just released a statement like two days ago, basically said if you think you own Anthropic and you don't directly own shares from like us, then you don't own any Anthropic.

[00:00:43]Like your shares are void and invalid.

[00:00:45]If you own it through any like SPV or anything like that, which is like I don't I I don't know how that works.

[00:00:53]I don't know what those legal battles are going to look like because when you get retail investors in something and then they lose money on it. Class action lawsuits just go crazy. And so I don't I don't know what the resolution of that's going to be. I I believe I >> [laughter] >> I believe I have some ownership of SpaceX, you know, that came from pre-IPO. I It was from XAI. I owned XAI and allegedly those are shares of SpaceX now, which allegedly are, you know, going to be going public here. But given what's just recently happened with Anthropic, it's like who knows? That might just be that might just be zero. Like I I may not actually have any SpaceX. And so So but no, I don't like investing in IPOs because it tends to be an exit.

[00:01:37]Like if let's say I actually do own shares of SpaceX, I'm going to be looking for an exit when they go public because it's going to be worth a lot more than what I paid for it. And so I don't know what the lockup period will end up being. They're trying to shorten it, you know, maybe it might be like but IPOs tend to be exits for early investors. And so so I don't like to be the bag holder, which typically happens with IPOs. If I like the company, I like to try and wait to see if it'll it'll tank after like 6 months or a year before before getting into it.