Tesla Is Worth the Same as November 2021. Five Years, Net Nowhere.

[00:00:00]out. Let me gripe with some charts, okay? We're going to do that. We're going to We're going to augment my complaining with some charts. That's what I do. So, we're going to start with the ES. Here is exhibit A.

[00:00:10]Uh that is not a huge range. It's basically about a 400-point range, which is like 6% or so.

[00:00:19]Uh another way to think of it is like a line plus or minus 3% per week after week after week since the beginning of May.

[00:00:26]And we're in the upperish part of that, if you think of it as sort of a 0 to 100 range. We're at about 80 right now.

[00:00:32]Um the uh death knell of the bears would be, of course, a breakout from this range to the upside because there's a lot of pent-up energy in that range.

[00:00:42]The death knell for our bullish friends, of course, would be a failure of that range. It's not a beautiful top uh at all, um but I would certainly take it if if it came to that. [clears throat] But, it's uh near the end of the show, we'll look at the INTC instead, which is a much cleaner chart to look at. But, the ES is huge. It's very important, and it's maddening.

[00:01:04]Uh here's the IWM.

[00:01:06]Trend line's broken. That's fine, but we've also spent weeks just kind of grinding around the same zone here as well. Uh I actually don't have any big ETF positions at all unless you count my puts on SMH.

[00:01:23]But, you know, Diamonds, IWM, Spider, anything, no. Uh I I have I've cut risk by about half.

[00:01:30]Um just cuz I would really like to see some of this fog clear.

[00:01:35]It's It's very opaque as you look ahead to the markets, and I'm hoping lots of earnings data will will shake the market out of its quagmire.

[00:01:44]Um and the the dull part of earnings season is behind us. You know, I don't care what Wells Fargo's earnings are. I could not care less what JP Morgan's doing.

[00:01:52]Give me a Give me an Amazon. Give me Give me a Google like this afternoon.

[00:01:56]Um let's get some household names going out there to really get things going.

[00:02:01]So, that begins this afternoon. The cool part of the earning season is about an hour away.

[00:02:06]Um here's SOXL, very important.

[00:02:10]This is the leverage instrument on semiconductors. It is down hard from its peak, but it's up a lot from Friday morning.

[00:02:18]It has basically gone up pretty persistently since Friday morning.

[00:02:21]Friday, Monday, Tuesday, now.

[00:02:23]And we've got a bullish engulfing pattern here and it is threatening to push into this topping pattern.

[00:02:33]The perfect thing for the bears would be, for whatever reason, a fall by Google, for example.

[00:02:39]A tumble away from this from this pattern.

[00:02:43]It isn't as important as like SMH cuz this is a leverage instrument and there's some some warping and distorting that always goes on.

[00:02:51]But as leverage instrument goes, this is a quite clean pattern. And as I say, yes, we've gone up a lot on semiconductors. We kind of need to start going down soon on this for this to retain.

[00:03:04]Um China continues to be decent to me.

[00:03:08]We're down again on this little more than half a percent. We peaked at Monday's high and tagged the bottom of that massive distribution top. We're starting to move lower and as I've said, my biggest options, actually second biggest now cuz I've added more to SMH, but I have a large options position FXI September $36 puts.

[00:03:27]And within the realm of China, the couple of individual shorts I've got are doing okay. Here's Alibaba, down about 1 and 1/2% today. And here's Baidu, down about 6/10 of a percent today.

[00:03:41]Um I also noticed that the US in a fit of pique has slapped 50% tariffs on on Canada again.

[00:03:49]I was curious, well, is that affecting the Canadian stock market are they plunging or whatever? Not really.

[00:03:55]Um they were at a lifetime high earlier today and it's up a little now but suffice it to say that the the giant tariffs have been met with a gargantuan shrug.

[00:04:05]Um so yeah, immaterial.

[00:04:08]Now, crude oil has been raging higher for obvious reasons.

[00:04:13]Um and the market doesn't seem to care that much.

[00:04:17]Uh crude oil has blasted higher over the past several weeks.

[00:04:22]Um but you know, the YM's green right now and the other markets are down, you know, fractionally.

[00:04:28]As a chart, what is important is this trend line here.

[00:04:33]Um just to review, so this gap is when the war was rolled out on the weekend. So there was a price gap between that Friday and Monday.

[00:04:42]We we exploded higher in a matter of few days cuz there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear, what's going to happen, what's going on.

[00:04:48]And um then we began declaring victory, you know, dozens of times along the way and over the course of time um we crafted this right triangle. So we had our nominal peak here but this is kind of a noisy mess. The real peak was really on this day which sounds silly cuz it's lower than the other peak but I think you know what I'm saying. This is just uh kind of a heart attack but the actual market you can pretend that bar doesn't even exist and the chart still makes perfect sense.

[00:05:18]So we had this peak here and a lower high and a lower high and a lower high and down we go. We still are configured for a lower high but we're approaching that trend line and we could cut above it. And if we do, um it doesn't mean some explosive move higher but it definitely dis- dispatches that as a reason to reverse and of course if we if we cross say higher than say this bar, um then you you've done away with lower highs as well. I have no energy positions. I have tried recently. I shorted S H E L yesterday, got stopped at a loss this morning, and I shorted APA on Monday, got stopped at a loss on Tuesday morning. I've had enough. You know, I don't want to lose money every day on energy shorts. Thanks a lot, but uh so zero positions at all, just kind of watching from a distance, interested just as a as a chart exercise.

[00:06:09]Um here's XLE, and it also has engaged in a series of lower highs from its peak back here on the 30th of um of March.

[00:06:20]Um which I guess was coincident with uh this mega rally we saw in equities. So, just to to repeat that, XLE peaked at the same time that equities in general were were bottoming for this latest run higher. Let's just toss a um a trend line there real quick just to just to do our job there. Okay, you can see we're getting pretty close.

[00:06:41]Pretty close to a break out there potentially or a reversal.

[00:06:45]Uh it's indeterminate now because we're approaching the line but haven't crossed it.

[00:06:50]Uh as far as gold goes, it's enjoyed four green bars in a row. It's been a while. Um as I mentioned this morning, I don't think there's any sort of um fundamental change in the direction of this. It It's got its own right triangle top on this, which it's well well below. Um I long term measured in years, absolute precious metals bull, {exclamation mark} no doubt about it. Short term, I don't think it's done finding some ultimate low here.

[00:07:20]Uh as far as cryptoland, uh IBIT um is a little bit soft now, uh down more than 1%. We've been zipping higher on crypto for the past few weeks. We're getting a little bit of weakness right now, and you can see this in a different fashion, in an upside down fashion, with BITI, which is the bearish on Bitcoin fund, uh this is the inverse Bitcoin fund, which has the makings of an inverted head and shoulders, but it it kind of dropped the ball. Um so, to examine this, we have the left shoulder, the head, the right shoulder.

[00:07:57]Had we burst above this line back around June 25, that would have completed the pattern. And it was a nice setup. Instead, it just just did a stack of dishes and dropped them on the floor and they shattered, you know, it it it didn't break out, messed around for a couple more days, and then we began red time. So, this went down down down down down, maybe bottomed yesterday. And we're starting to see a little bit of buying.

[00:08:22]Uh I I want to emphasize this is the bearish fund. This is upside down. So, if you're bearish on Bitcoin, this is this is the fund for you, but it has not um uh run away with it. The pattern flopped as of now, and now we're kind of trying to figure out what's next.

[00:08:39]Uh although strangely strategy, uh MSTR, um has not had the kind of gusto that Bitcoin in general has, even though it is principally a leveraged Bitcoin play.

[00:08:51]Um it's been a mess.

[00:08:53]So, we're down on this one. I'm I'm short this. This is um I shorted this yesterday.

[00:08:58]Um and we're down 1 and 3/4 on this for the day. Um so, it's interesting because it is is clearly weaker than you would expect. We aren't that much higher on this than we were at the depths that we were when when Bitcoin was like $8,000 below present prices. So, it's it's not doing very well.

[00:09:20]Um I've got a bunch of short positions as as is so often the case, um 35, I think. Uh it changes day-to-day, so it's easy to lose track. Um here's a few of them. Uh Shopify, I shorted this one uh either yesterday or the day before, but it's down almost 4% right now.

[00:09:38]Uh DT, I mentioned this one yesterday.

[00:09:40]I'm going to mention it again cuz it's still doing nicely down about 3%.

[00:09:45]Uh mentioned this one, too, DB. Um this has been slipping pretty steadily for the past several weeks. So, we're down again on this one a little more than 1%. Um this one is a nice surprise.

[00:09:58]Meta is down about $17 or 2 and 2/3%.

[00:10:03]The chart is a stinking mess, but the point I made to a few days ago um explaining my short on this was that yes, very short-term, it seems to be recovering nicely, but if you really back up, you can see that it has been in its own private bear market for a while.

[00:10:20]Um the tippy top was last summer when they were handing out nine-figure checks um for people to join their stumbling AI effort.

[00:10:31]Um that madness has ended. I can tell you for a fact. Um and uh but that was the tippy top. For some For some reason, they were just on top of the world, but since then, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, down it goes. And um so, I shorted this uh about a week ago.

[00:10:50]So far, so good. I'm hoping for much lower prices, but that's that's It's a messy chart as you can plainly see. Uh Carvana continues to be a beloved friend. Um These are my September puts um moving down nicely over the past five trading sessions. Down again today, 3 and 2/3%.

[00:11:09]Um as I said, um I think earnings on this are I want to say the 29th. I think next week.

[00:11:16]Um and obviously, I'm hoping for a surprise there in in the down direction, but those are going well so far.

[00:11:24]So, we've got a couple of big earnings tonight, and I don't have anything dramatic to say about either of them.

[00:11:31]And I'm not in position in either of them. It would be nice if they fell because that just helps the bearish cause in general, but let's just talk a bit about those two big big fellows.

[00:11:41]One is Tesla.

[00:11:43]Um this is a messy and inscrutable chart and I don't trade it.

[00:11:48]I will share this one fun fact as I was looking at this.

[00:11:51]Um this stock is worth the same price it was in November 2021.

[00:12:01]So, if you had bought in November 2021, which is roundabout here, actually just below that. Um and held tight through all the ups and downs and all the news that's taken place over the past 5 years, which is a lot, unchanged.

[00:12:17]Um there was a time that Tesla was the hottest stock around.

[00:12:21]It was Nvidia.

[00:12:24]Uh it was the Nvidia of its day, but even Nvidia's not Nvidia anymore, so it won't be long for me to come up with a better example. But it in 2019-2020, it was on fire. It went on a split-adjusted basis, it went from like 10 to about what, 400?

[00:12:38]Um everybody loved Tesla. Everybody loved Elon. And that magic, that is kind of like Cathie D Wood, you know, you get a lot of attention back in 2021 and it sticks, irrespective of what you do afterward. And so everyone fell in love with Elon and that that that um social capital has flowed right into SpaceX, of course, which is why it was worth $3 trillion um when it came out.

[00:13:02]But it ain't working now and Tesla has been the 5 years bobbling about and going net net nowhere.

[00:13:10]Uh as far as Google goes, um Alphabet, again, no position, no strong feelings about it at all. Um I shorted it here and just by dumb luck and no skill whatever, it fell hard and I covered the next day. Just just lucky, nothing but.

[00:13:28]Um I will say that this little zone represents resistance.

[00:13:34]Um but uh so if we do rally, I would look to that as an important resistance point.

[00:13:39]But that otherwise, I got zero to say about that one.

[00:13:42]The NQ, we are at an important level here.

[00:13:46]Um it would help a lot if we fell tomorrow because we are just beneath an important cluster uh which is our range we were trapped in for quite a while. So a big update tomorrow would be a bad thing for the one or two bears that are left. Um whereas a down day would really put some wind in our sails. So it it's kind of up to Google probably. Um Tesla used to be Tesla used to be the stock market. Now it's just like, oh yeah, they still exist. So not that big a deal. Google's a very big deal.

[00:14:15]And speaking of Elon, our last chart of the day, I wasn't going to bother with it, but I had to look and I was like, goodness gracious me, there it is again.

[00:14:23]Yesterday, a rare exception, a little pop. As I mentioned yesterday, didn't mean a thing and it doesn't mean a thing because we're at a lifetime lows again.

[00:14:33]And this has lost one and a half trillion dollars in shareholder value since its peak back here on June 16 and it's a sad sad sight. So August uh 4, I think, uh 13 days from now is the first earnings announcement. That will be closely watched and then shortly thereafter the first unlock for anybody who wants to sell at the price they're willing to give. So that's it for me.

[00:14:58]Good luck to any Googlers out there and I will see you tomorrow. Bye-bye.