When a launch box product becomes widely available (as many as you want), it paradoxically creates challenges for retailers because the scarcity-driven urgency that drives initial sales disappears, leading to slower inventory turnover and requiring different business strategies to manage excess stock.
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Deep Dive
What Happens When You Can Get EVERYTHING YOU WANT?Added:
Well, Jay, you don't always get what you want.
>> Yeah, true.
>> But in this case, most of the time, in this case, you can have everything you want.
>> Oh, okay.
>> Nice. Nice.
>> Yeah. So, like, you know, you're like complaining. You're like, "Ah, man. You know, kill team Delin."
>> Yeah.
>> We can only get five.
>> Okay. You know, I guess I'll take whatever. Okay. Uh, only ate the filers.
>> Oh god, don't remind me.
>> Would have loved to sell like 30 or 40.
Okay, cool.
>> Games Workshop calls up and says, "Hey, Jay, I got great news for you."
>> Oh, did you get the pre- pre-sale call?
>> No, not yet.
>> Not yet. Not yet. No, that's probably this week.
>> We must fell off.
>> Yeah. Yeah, we're way delinquent.
>> The delinquent delinquent. You don't even call me. I heard Timmy got the pre call or whatever.
>> Well, you know, they they know there's a new guy there. No, he he didn't he have that accident.
>> Self-inflicted. He I heard he walked in.
He walked in traffic, right? New way to call it selflaughter.
>> Whatever. Tommy.
>> Yeah.
>> You know Tommy is hanging out with Timmy's wife.
>> There's too many names. I can't keep up with it.
>> All right. That's what I heard. That's what I heard.
>> You have all the Lord balanced in your head. I do. Yeah.
>> I don't.
>> Um so yeah. Anyways, they call up and they're like, you know, Jay, uh I got great news. You can have as many Armageddon box sets as you want.
>> Oh, that's not the box I want. As many as >> Okay. All >> I mean I want some.
>> What about the filers?
>> Well, sorry.
>> You used up all the printing time.
>> We did on Armageddon. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry.
Sorry. Yeah.
>> God damn.
>> So, we we have this like interesting situation where >> I would say like probably like half of all 40k new releases are kind of selling out right now. There there are there are some ones that are sitting for a little longer like some of the battalion box sets and things are are kind of like taking a little longer to >> True. I think I think we're finally down to our last uh Costco code battle force.
>> Nice. Tuck tuck those away in the Warhammer bathroom.
>> You know, people are like, "You got to sell everything full price. You're crazy." I was like, "Yep, still going to sell out." So, I get to make all the money.
>> Yeah. Making sound really >> just that much just that little bit closer to that switch to we'll never get >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's just out of always out of reach.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh but yeah, so so so we have this interesting situation now where you know you're you're kind of putting in these numbers every week and you're like they're telling you, "Oh, you want that? Too bad you get this.
Okay, you want that. Too bad you get this."
>> And now all of a sudden you can you can have all the all the Armageddon you want. You know, like you can eat at the Armageddon trough >> and you it's it says Warmer 40,000 on it.
>> It's just the donuts being shoved >> and you can just go hamburger pork chop all over this release.
>> Cool. Go. What are you going to do? You going to get 200?
>> What a number to start with.
>> 200.
>> I'm not whing games.
>> No way games. Well, last time they did that, it worked out horiz at least. Probably more. They're probably going to 2k that one.
>> Well, I mean, >> kind of a small warehouse.
>> They have the benefit of uh I wouldn't say benefit. I don't really like they can discount. can discount to $1 if they want to, which is insane. But >> yeah, >> it's really good for shops.
>> Interesting calculation.
>> Yeah. So, uh >> yeah, you know, I actually I can I should do everyone would love that, wouldn't they? Another some sort of analytical video, but uh I think what we've seen in general uh if we're talking about Armageddon specifically, this this being a launchbox product. So, so first off, you you expect there to be a very large number because it's a launch product item for their flagship game.
>> Yep.
>> So, that's going to happen. Um, and in previous years, obviously, we had eras in Dominus or Dark Imperium Indominus, uh, even Leviathan where uh, that the the number they made wasn't enough actually and and people were like upset. Now, obviously, not everything's apples to apples because the contents vary between them, but we've seen uh I think it's a trend now.
>> Mhm.
>> That that we've seen our own pre-order lists go from like, you know, 50 60 names to 40 names to 20 names like rather like in short, not short order, but over the decade.
>> And I, you know, I think that's that's just like a thing. I don't I don't even know if it's a because the quality I wouldn't say the quality of the box is worse. I don't think there's I don't think that's a valid >> I always make the case that like Scaven Tide to me was one of like the best art like launch boxes I think I've ever seen the actual model >> and they had to give that away they had to give that away at Adeptic.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. Like Yeah. Let's side tangent. the scape the contents of scaven and tide are are should be in the hall of fame of of of products or whatever cuz it's >> an outrageous number of things and they and the and the and the quality and the sculpts are just absolutely incredible.
So that's that's not just me as a biased AOS fan. Like that is a box I will happily keep in the closet for the rest of my life until >> that one moment where I decide to paint them.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh and there's no surprise you see them all over Golden Demon or whatever. But um no, I think I think you've seen that that number going trending down and you know we have some ideas here as to reasons why and it has nothing I don't think has anything to do with the fact that necessarily there's orcs and space marines boring space marines or whatever. That's also been like kind of completely nuked by the fact that common space marines out sell everything by themselves which we talked about recently. Uh and the new works are cool.
I think uh and and we've brought this up and you brought this up with Ash and whatever. It's it's just like how is that this launch weekend unique now compared to every other weekend of the year?
>> Yeah.
>> It used to be the big deal because it was the big deal.
>> Yes.
>> And now it's kind of not >> u comparatively. Right. So >> really it feels like it it's like it it's it's now it's basically just 11th edition the Kickstarter.
>> Right.
>> Right. It's kind of what it is. Right.
It's kind of just like, oh, you can get your uh rule book and your card pack early.
>> Mhm.
>> Right. Cuz the general release won't be that week. So, if you want it to be the the, you know, the vanguard, especially like if you're a tournament player and you're you know, you want to get your hands on a stuff earlier and that kind of thing, like you're going to want to buy as early as you can.
>> Yep.
>> And then, you know, it's it's the typical GW like and it's a great deal.
Um, which you know, we can watch you can watch our hobby channel, Lords of War Hobby Channel.
>> Is it worth it?
>> Breakdown. Is it worth it? The Armageddon box set. And you know, I'm not going to tell you personally that it's worth it for you, >> but like from like a pure dollars and cents standpoint, like I don't know how you can argue that it's not worth worth the money.
>> Yeah.
>> Even even in crazy inflated GW bucks, whatever you want to call them, >> games dollars, >> you could you could take the number and slash >> Cuban convertibles or whatever.
>> Cuban convertibles.
>> GW convertibles.
>> Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
When you go when you go to a country and you you give them your US bucks and they and they give them the their currency back and you're like this is worthless or whatever.
>> It's like one to one or whatever with US dollar just to protect their own currency that's like 30 or 40 to1 or >> whatever. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> But either way, uh no, even if you slash that number in half, it's still >> still way over the the MSRP or whatever you want to call it. But uh but either way, yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Stands. It Yeah. It's it's it's it's a it's a great value, which is what we always say.
>> Value. Yeah. But yeah, I I think I think you're right.
Like the the so much more like wait and see now >> stuff. Like we've had there's there's let's just say there's a number of things working against this product, right? In a sense that not that I don't think it's going to do badly or anything like that, but the fact that uh people have a sense right now because quite frankly like we all have recency bias in our brains, right? And we're always going to remember the last couple of sets. Well, the last 40k boxes of Leviathan. You could buy those on a retail shelf for like at least a calendar year after it came out.
>> Yep.
>> Nothing really urgent there, right?
>> Number two, Scaven Tide was even more recent than that. We all know what happened with that box, right?
>> Uh so there's at least like a really recent track record of these boxes like just being printed like to oblivion literally >> and they're they being readily available. So no one no one that's buying this is like I don't want to miss out, right?
>> It's not a miss out product. No.
>> And part of me is like that's kind of good. Like I I I prefer business to be in that situation. Maybe it's not as it might not be as lucrative for us, but like it's more honest and genuine. Like the people that are buying it actually do want it >> for what it is, right? So that there's there's that nice thing going for it, right? I think I think that this is a if we're if we're talking like as stores or whatever, if we're all store owners, I think >> one thing I think there's a truth that it will it will because of the point you just made, it will gradually sell fine.
Like here's the tricky part. Here's where like I well, you know, us, we're generally pretty like conservative with numbers of things cuz we're we're just like we like having some cash left over to feed our families or whatever. Well, there's that. Yeah.
>> Uh, and pay mortgages, blah, blah, blah.
And I I think that there is definitely I think if you're like, "Oh, I need to get as many as I need to get those 200 boxes to capture this market now." I think is uh is is a little crazy to be honest or just a little over aggressive like there's they made they've made a lot of them probably and they'll last and I think it will sell over time. I think actually there will be another jump. I think you'll have launch day and you'll sell your whatever like to your your little 30% of your inventory of it quickly because of the people that are excited >> and then I think the remaining you know let's say you got 10 boxes just for easy math. I think the remaining six boxes will will just chump chip away through the summer. People are going to swing back around. I think once they also release those >> like hivestorm >> like hive stom >> hivestorm really did pick up a lot more steam a couple months later.
>> Yeah. Yeah. and and but but you know when that marine and and orc codeex come out >> which you know they will have out and then they'll have some other goodies.
They'll probably have a few more model kits that they haven't told us about that'll like go to complement the >> the Armageddon box. Uh and maybe and I'm sure there will be a couple of new also like $300 or whatever $280 like army boxes to go with that as well. I think pretty soon people are going to be like, "Holy crap, I can actually build a match play a good match play army out of these two things rather quickly.
>> Uh, and it's it'll be very meta related.
You know, there's going to be some big tournaments over the summer and I think little by little people are going to start actually need what's in here." Um, or they'll figure out splits with friends or whatever. So, I think that that remaining inventory will will sell through just fine. The problem is is do you want to tie up so much money so quickly right away knowing that I it won't be a surge back in your pocket?
It's going to take it's a slower burn uh is is my hypothesis on this.
>> Well, and as we're going to talk about in the next video we do this week, the price is also a consideration, right?
It's also the most expensive launch box they've ever released, right?
>> It sure is. Yeah. So, >> and I would say the other thing I think that's like maybe hurting the initial sales of it but might make it like you said sell better in the long run is the fact that it feel it feels more starter set than previous iterations of launch boxes.
Uh especially with the Space Marine contents like it it it they there's like there's almost like a classic vibe to the box where it has like you know your regular intercessors. You've got like, you know, your Vanguard veterans, but they're fairly simple looking. Uh you've got the basic landspeeder. You've got some uh heavy boys with heavy bolters or whatever. And you've got like your your classic characters in there. Like it just to me it screams like starter sets.
So I think it it should do particularly well with the like new player update uptake um demographic. I mean the the curious thing will be what will the uh post launch box uh starter box uh set look. So you know the intro uh the intro starter and ultimate starters. I assume they're going to do a three tiered box set.
You know I feel the middle and the middle >> there's some rumor that they they actually might just be doing combat patrols but uh like one player starters this time.
>> Yeah. I don't know how much I like that, but >> I Yeah, this is one I mean, historically that $130 one is >> is money in the bank.
>> Very easy to sell.
>> Such a good box.
>> And this one should be the ultimate one of those ever. Or like if they want to go back to the to this mega successful whatever loss leader. They're such an they're like we're not we don't lost lead anymore here at Games Workshop.
We're >> that's for loser companies. You're a loser. You got lost leader.
>> You have to give it away. Wow. What a loser. What a loser. Yeah. Uh >> but I imagine in my head in my in my mind palace like what if you have a box that has the space marine captain librarian and the 10 tack marines and like maybe the three heavy intercessors.
And then on the other side you got like the work war track and some bikes or something and 10 boys and whatever. And that's 130 bucks and has the little rule book in it.
>> Like you should be slinging those.
>> It's like a Black Reach 2.0. We have Black Reach 2.0. It should be easy to sling those. But >> but you know what? They've probably done some calculations and say that doesn't matter anymore. We're going to get your money anyway because >> RIP is so strong and >> like I don't know. It's it's such a different time selling the product. It is, >> you know.
>> I'm really curious. This is this to me these this actually if you go on to our Patreon you can check out we do like a weekly store update video and actually this one I just posted yesterday I was talking about uh without giving away all the good stuff um the really interesting dilemma that store owners are going through right now with this >> yeah it >> it's a very >> it's like a daily conversation >> it's a very difficult >> like you as a consumer you're like what's the big like obviously it's going to be really good for you M >> but there's there's a lot of uh kind of like factors at play here. You know, there's there's there's way more stores than there used to be. Um everybody's if everybody can order if we can order a lot, everybody can order a lot. So, you know, you're dealing with uh all the game emporiums and stuff all over the place having tons of these on the shelf and and that's sort of like a concern, right? And then you don't know how long after Games Workshop's just going to start slamming out all the contents separately and >> maybe make it more or less desirable. It depends on how those products go. You know, you you don't know. There's a lot there's just so many unknowns, right?
>> And then ultimately you're like, well, uh it's not like we're uh City Bank or whatever. We don't have like an unlimited resource of money to so so you know even 10 extra copies for us is like $2,000 in working capital >> that's just sitting there >> that we can't spend on paint that we can't spend on the next >> week of releases that might move a lot quicker, right? So it's these are always the things we're kind of uh thinking about, right? So, every store is kind of racking their brain right now >> and feeling like uh there's no good decision to make here almost.
>> Yeah. Doesn't seem like it doesn't.
>> But isn't it funny that you can have as many as you want and everybody that complains about not having enough, the minute they get as many as they want, all of a sudden they're just like struck with unbelievable anxiety about what to do. Yeah. Yeah.
>> Uh, >> so I, this is what we talked about in previous videos is like >> I don't think a lot of hobby owners realize the period we're in right now and how lucky they are actually.
>> Um, that things do sell out, you know, like the sellrough rates on things are are kind of obscene, right? So, >> yeah.
>> And and and be careful what you wish for, I guess, you know, careful what you wish for. So, >> yeah.
>> There you go. You got it, guys. You have as many as you want.
>> Enjoy. Build your pyramid.
>> Build your pyramid.
>> Build your pyramid.
>> I hope you have a big bathroom.
>> Oh, you Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Massive.
>> That's no longer available to customers.
>> Cannot be used anymore. Yeah.
>> Uh, what do you guys think about Armageddon? Uh, I know we've asked this a million times. Um, are you picking one up? Are you not? What do you think of the box? Uh, what do you think about our reasons for yes or no kind of thing.
And, uh, if you like these videos, please like and subscribe. We appreciate it. Check out our Patreon, which I mentioned earlier, where we do a weekly store update and what's going on, a little bit more behind the scenes. And you can also uh support us by going to lords wargames.com and buy something.
You get something, we get something.
That's pretty cool. And if you're outside of Canada, you can email us at lords wartogmail.com. We'll see you guys next time. Bye.
>> Thanks. Bye.
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