Housing Market Crash? Here's What Actually Happening!

[00:00:00]real quick while the housing market ain't going to crash. There's a lot of people out there uh I should say a lot, but there's quite a few people especially YouTube channels out there and they're like sky's falling. They've been saying this for 5 years. Listen, I'm going to tell you really simple why the housing market would crash. What would cause the housing market to crash and what to look for before the housing market crashes, right? So, one, why hasn't the housing market crashed? For one, the economy is stable. The massive amount of people that own homes, have jobs, and quite simply, they can they can pay their mortgage payment. For 14 years, they left the interest rates below 5 and a quarter%. People bought houses. That's what pushed up prices.

[00:00:44]People have lower payments. Those payments in just about every place in the country. The payment on the average house that somebody's lived in is literally less than they could go rent.

[00:00:53]that payment and that home homeowner has also been in their house longer than ever before. Longer than ever recorded history or homeowner staying in their house is longer than ever because what happens is you look at well my payment's 2,000 now if I got to move up to another house we may get a pool but hell that pool it's going to cost us $4,000. Let's just put a pool in we'll pull some equity out. That's why you're seeing so many the remodeling business is going crazy. If you're a contractor out there give me a thumbs up. You probably are turning down business because people want their kitchens, baths remodeled.

[00:01:22]They're putting pools in. They're doing all kind of they're making additions.

[00:01:25]They're doing all this because they're living in their houses. There are fewer houses on the market for the most part.

[00:01:30]We're getting up there as far as numbers, but I'll give you some ideas.

[00:01:33]Like nor New Orleans, metro Louisiana, literally seven, eight years ago, the inventory was 11 12,000. Now it's hovering about 6,000. And so anybody that tells you otherwise and they're not in the residential business grinding every single day. I don't care who they are. You've got to know the numbers. You see the numbers. It's you'll probably agree. And if so, give me a thumbs up, a like, or a comment. How many houses do you see in your area on the market, unless you're in certain parts of Florida, that's where it's heated up as far as a a home, a buyer market, because there's more homes on the market. And I'll explain that right fast. It's because Florida is one of the leading states in the country with second homes.

[00:02:15]People buy homes for vacation.

[00:02:18]to have a second home. They don't even rent out and they buy investment properties. So, people buy investment properties all over the country, but in Florida, they buy investment properties because people flock to the beach.

[00:02:29]Listen, the beach, the ocean, the sand, it gains attention and money flows where attention goes. And Florida has a lot of attention because it's beautiful place to live and people buy there. What happens is if there's any kind of cut back, a lot of people bought Airbnbs now counties, cities, they can't. So, you can't Airbnb like literally, you know, like unless you're grandfathered in.

[00:02:48]They said this two or three years ago in New Orleans. No Airbnbs in New Orleans.

[00:02:51]There was people that bought houses and they were like pleading, you know, help me because I just bought this house and I don't want to be upside down. I want to be able to literally, you know, do an Airbnb. So, there's places out there you can't do an Airbnb until people literally cannot pay their mortgage payment. That's when you see a housing market crash. A housing market crash.

[00:03:09]And I've been in the real estate business for 30 years. I've sold over 4,000 houses. I've been through just about every up and down in market imaginable, right? And I can tell you that in 2008, here's how the market crashed in 2008. They used to have what they call BC lenders. So, if you had a 540, 550 credit score, you have maybe less time on your job. There's a thing called ninja loans. And if you're a lender out there, a real estate agent out there, and you've been there, you've done that, you've watched this, ninjas stand for it, it's literally it's abbreviation ninja loans, no income, no job, no assets. Like literally people were it was crazy. They'd have a little bit of cash. They didn't have to prove income. It was a BC lending nightmare.

[00:03:49]And not only that, but you had a lot of mortgage fraud. I can tell you personally, I was in Hendersonville, Tennessee, living right outside of Nashville, and I had the FBI come in my office one day. Why? Because literally there was a real estate mortgage company, lender, title company, attorney, builder, appraiser, home insp.

[00:04:10]All of them were in in in cahoots, man.

[00:04:13]As they call it, cahoots. This is what I mean. They put a house, they builder would build a house. They'd take the house, nobody would move in it. They'd create a fictitious buyer. And if you think I'm blowing smoke, man, just Google straw buyer. S t r a w. straw buyer. I don't even know why it's called straw, but they call a straw buyer that's non-existent. So, literally, they give a loan to a non-existent human being to buy the house. They loan the money, and then everybody shares in the profits that was down on it. The house appraised, the builder built it, the title company closed it, the lender gave the loan. Yeah. You know how much of that stuff was going on? I'm talking hundreds of thousands of houses. And maybe if you're a real estate agent, chime in and say, "Yep, they did it my town. Yep, they did it in my town." I'm talking brand new houses. You ride by, they'd be half a million dollars and all of a sudden they're foreclosed on.

[00:05:01]Nobody's ever lived in them. They haven't even had a shirt hung in a closet. So, you have to look for the downturn in the market. That's why it's a little bit different. They are offering USDA loans where you can get basically no no money out of pocket. I tell people you typically need like $500 deposit, $500 to do a home inspection.

[00:05:19]But what it all boils down to is that we're not going to see a housing crash until we see an absolute massive influx of people, millions, millions of people who can't afford their mortgage payment because that's when the market crashes. The market crashes when all these homeowners cannot pay their payment. And when they can't pay their payment and there's not enough buyers buying, guess what happens to the prices? It plummets. it goes down. And I know there's a lot of people out there like, "Man, the prices are too high and greedy homeowners and all this." And listen, I don't care who you are. If you were in the same position you own that house and you're a buyer saying that, trust me, you wouldn't want to let the money go either because you've worked hard. You've bought that house. You own that house. They left the interest rates too low for too long. And they blamed it on COVID and they blamed it on the economy and getting back from the housing crash and and you know literally for 14 years interest rates never went over five and a quarter percent. 64% of the people that have a mortgage right now in the United States have less than a five and a quarter rate. Their payments low. So until we have a huge mass exodus of jobs and crashing and people can't afford their houses and buyers not buying them, that is a housing crash. and and we don't see that happening right now. We actually see the opposite happening. We see the Aussie market actually picking up. People are buy and more homes are sold literally this year in 2026 than have been sold last year at the same time and we're rolling into to July. So the point I'm trying to make is you have to look for that. You have to look for the crash.

[00:06:55]You have to look for job loss. You have to look for fuel prices. A lot of people don't realize this, but fuel cost. Hang on just a second. We got some some dudes.

[00:07:11]I like my quiet golf cart. Y'all probably agree that stuff gets on my nerves. So, until we have a mass exodus of people that can't afford their payments and you have to look at oil prices because everything in this country is put on a truck, put on a boat, put on a plane. And sure, it has to be trucked. It has to be transported.

[00:07:35]But the big thing that people don't understand is that crude oil, plastic is a byproduct of crude oil.

[00:07:43]This golf cart has plastic all over it.

[00:07:46]And what it what's it made out of? Crude oil. Like everything. And until they come up with something where they're not relying on that to make everything, our glasses, contact lenses, lipstick, I mean, you name it, it doesn't matter.

[00:08:02]It seems like about 99% of our products have oil in it and we just rely on oil.

[00:08:08]Hell, the water bottles we drink out of.

[00:08:10]Like, think about all that. Everything is plastic. You know what's so funny though? You buy a shower, bought a shower head the other day. Sucker look, chrome is beautiful. Plastic. I I was at uh Ferguson the other day, plumbing store. $1,350 faucet. I I was like, "Wow, $1,300 for a faucet. Plastic." So until we you have to look at fuel cost is until we change the whole dynamic of of things like that fuel cost plays a big difference. When fuel goes up everything goes up. When gas goes up it goes up. So it's good to see fuel prices come down. Some numbers to think about.

[00:08:46]In 2007 2008 crude oil got to the highest it's ever been in the history of the country.

[00:08:56]And you can't help but wonder, was it done on purpose? Because crude oil hit $144 a barrel and that's the highest it's ever been. People don't realize, and if you're watching this, give me a thumbs up, chime in, because I remember when diesel in Nashville, Tennessee, diesel fuel was literally $5 a gallon. And that was in 2008. And so people complain, they look at prices, they look at this right now, but I can't emphasize enough.

[00:09:27]Every time you look at the housing markets and the eb and flow, so much of it follows the oil, follows the crude oil. So will the housing market crash? I don't foresee it happening. And I've been in the real estate business for 30 years, sold thousands of houses. I see people stable. I see people comfortable.

[00:09:45]I see not too many people selling their houses to move up from one house to another as much as they did. Sure, there's estate sales. Sure, there's people that are going through divorce.

[00:09:55]There's all kind of reasons why people sell their houses and have to sell their houses. And sometimes, if you're a first-time home buyer, you're like, "Well, listen, it is what it is." Like, you know, we have to pay a little bit more, but at least we have the equity to put down to make up the difference. And oftentimes, and let me share this with you, and this is kind of off the cuff, kind of off the off the uh off the whole title of the video, but listen to me here. So many people credit card debt.

[00:10:20]So many people have credit card. The average person has about nine $10,000 in credit card. So the average household has about $18,000 in credit card. And if you're paying credit cards, you're pro I promise you're paying 18 plus%, right?

[00:10:32]You're paying 18 19 20%. Maybe even 25 26.

[00:10:37]What it boils down to is look at this.

[00:10:39]Look at do you have a boat? Do you have a motor home? Do you have credit cards?

[00:10:44]Do you have a golf cart you're paying on or whatever it may be? Whatever you're paying payments on, homeowners don't realize that they have equity in their house that they can roll that equity and pay off debt and tell their lender they want to pay off debt. And it all happens at closing. So, here's what happens. You got this house right here on the market and you want to put that home on the market. You got $150,000 in equity. You want to put $100,000 on another house.

[00:11:11]You got $40,000 in debt. Let's say you owe $12,000 on a jet ski, $18,000 on a credit card. You can go to a lender and say, "Hey, it looks like I got $150,000 in my house equity. How much can I be approved for based on what I make right now if I didn't have any debt, but my mortgage payment, but a mortgage payment?" So, what a lender does is to prove you, they look at all your income and all your debts, and they determine your debt to income ratio. But what if you said, "Look, we're going to pay off the truck. my wife's car is paid for.

[00:11:43]We're going to pay this and that and that and then that's going to leave our our income is this. So they subtract all the debt and they said, "Well, if you did that, this is what the house you could buy." And then you're like, "Wait a minute. What would the payment be on the house?" And then you look at the payment on the house and the payment on the new house is the same, if not less, even though the rate may be six and a quarter% and you're sitting on a five.

[00:12:05]you're sitting on a 4 and a half because you took your equity in your home that you just sold and you put it down on this house and you took your equity and you paid off all your debt. So now instead of paying 15, 18, 20, 25% in credit cards or whatever it may be that you're paying on, you don't have all those payments. If you're like me and anybody else, payments are stressful, man. I don't like payment. I don't like debt. I don't like paying anybody. I like it minimum, minimum, minimum. If you do, give me a thumbs up or say yes, Wayne. I agree, man. minimum minimum.

[00:12:35]But that's what I can't emphasize enough. Lenders have been doing this forever. And I'll tell you a quick story. Here's how I learned this. I've learned this because I've seen people do this literally before I got my real estate license 30 years ago. And when I seen people do that, I thought, well, that's pretty cool. And then here I am right now today and you've got, yeah, we got assumable loans. You don't have to be a veteran to assume a VA loan. You can assume FHA loans. You got to make up that difference in the equity. But what about if you're a homeowner wanting to sell your house? So many people and listen, if you if you learn anything, here's what you have to do.

[00:13:07]You have to be disciplined not to not to put more stuff on credit because that's where it's going to hurt you.

[00:13:14]Because if you keep those credit cards, oftentimes a good lender be like, you got to cancel these cards. And then they'll look at, okay, if you cancel the cards, then this is what's going to do your credit score. Because this is what you have to be, this is what you have to really hang on to is the simulation process. Now, I use my FICO. I'll put a link below. You can click on it. It's literally my favorite because it shows me all three credit reports. Equifax, Experian, TransUnion, and it shows you what a lender sees. It's called a trige credit report. And once you know that, then it's like, okay, well, here's my credit. And then you have a simulator on there. You can say, okay, what if I pay down here's all my debt. So, what if I pay down this and this and this and this? It'll show you what your credit score is going to jump to. It'll show you if you cancel these cards what it's going to drop to. So, a good lender knows that. That's why we tell people, listen, if you need help, go to contactwayne.com. We connect you with a lender. We connect you with agents. We can do all that stuff if you need help.

[00:14:05]If not, we don't care either way. But if you need a good person, we can help you sell your house. We can help you buy a house. It's just a part of the process and the system that we do. Been doing this, like I said, for 30 years. Not trying to brag or anything. Just trying to let you know that what you learn from me is actual real life tried and trueue uh hands-on experience. But you sell your house, you put equity down on another house, you take some of the equity, you've paid off your debt, you bought that stuff anyway. So now you have no credit cards, no payments, no nothing.

[00:14:32]Pretty cool, huh? So that's what people need to look into cuz so often times we don't we don't think about that stuff.

[00:14:40]Nobody tells us that information. It's fact. It's true. I live it every single day and I have for the last 30 years of my life. So listen, I hope you've enjoyed this video. Housing market's not going to crash. Lots of opportunities out there whether you're buying or selling a house. Lots of opportunities if you're a real estate agent. Um, you know, I've got a real estate agent channel. It's called Just for Agents, and I teach real estate agents because it's it's not a it's not a market problem. It's a marketing problem. You got to promote market access, all this stuff. Literally, I show people how you can spend $300 a month and and uh and literally have three to six new home buyers and sellers literally on a daily basis. Like, it's not that hard, you know? So anyway, if you're an agent, go to four agents or just Google. Uh I'll put a link below, but um if you have any questions, anybody and when it comes down to selling your house, buying a house, go to contactwayne.com. We'll be glad to help you out. Thank you for watching. Hope you've enjoyed the video.

[00:15:37]Please subscribe to the channel, give me a thumbs up, and share it with somebody that you think would benefit. Until next time, thank you. May God bless you.