Zambia’s soya beans is expected to find a stronger export footing in the East African market

[00:00:00]A significant piece of analysis has just emerged from Commodity Insight Africa, one of the most respected independent agricultural commodity intelligence firms operating across sub-Saharan Africa. Their 10 June 2026 Africa Grains Report has identified a clear export opportunity for Zambian soybeans and soya meal into the East African market.

[00:00:27]The timing matters. It comes within days of the announcement by the president of the Republic of Zambia that Zambia's soybean production target for the next 5 years has been raised to 3 million tons by 2031 as part of the broader 10 10 5 3 3 1 1 1 economic framework being unveiled in his program for 2026 to 2031.

[00:00:57]>> As Zambians through vote, we ask you for another mandate, we will more than double the size of your economy.

[00:01:13]1 million jobs we created under difficult under debt burden under drought, our target is to create millions more jobs now going forward.

[00:01:26]That's our target.

[00:01:27]>> Before we get to what the CIA Africa Report says, it is worth understanding who is saying it and why their voice matters. Commodity Insight Africa, abbreviated as CIA Africa, was established in 2006 to provide reliable and up-to-date intelligence on soft commodities across sub-Saharan Africa. They cover South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and the wider region, they track maize, wheat, soybeans, soy meal, sugar, and other agricultural commodities, as well as some hard commodities, including copper and coal. Their reports are used by traders, banks, financiers, processors, exporters, and government planners across the continent.

[00:02:20]>> The market guess Malawi could have a 60,000 ton exportable soy meal surplus.

[00:02:26]And both Uganda and Ethiopia are on 50,000 tons. Therefore, Zambia, Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia a combined soy meal exportable surplus of around 240,000 tons, as indicated in the top half of the table.

[00:02:44]How big is the import need for Tanzania, Kenya, and Rwanda?

[00:02:49]>> When CIA Africa publishes a market outlook, the regional trading community pays attention. Their analysis is not promotional.

[00:02:58]It is commercial intelligence based on real trade flows, harvest focus, and on-the-ground contacts. That is why what they are saying about Zambia this week matters. Their analysis projects that Zambia is set to harvest a soybean crop of around 450,000 tons from the 2025-2026 farming season.

[00:03:21]>> Should India not export to East Africa next 12 months?

[00:03:25]It is possible that India could be back in the soy meal export market by the first half of 2027.

[00:03:33]In conclusion, we expect healthy demand for Zambian soy meal from Tanzania and to a lesser extent Kenya and Rwanda short-medium term.

[00:03:45]The graph This graph indicates the Lusaka soybean and soy meal price history.

[00:03:50]Despite a relatively big expected Zambian soybean crop, the price trend is already higher during the back end of the harvest campaign. See the blue circle.

[00:04:03]We foresee price support for both soybeans and soya meal short medium term.

[00:04:08]>> Approximately 400,000 tons will be crushed locally with the remaining 50,000 tons potentially flowing into Tanzania through informal trade.

[00:04:17]Zambia's installed soybean crushing capacity stands at over 1.2 million tons. The 400,000 tons that are crushed are expected to produce approximately 300,000 tons of soya meal. Local demand for soya meal in Zambia is around 220,000 tons.

[00:04:35]That leaves an exportable surplus of approximately 80,000 tons of soya meal for export markets. This is where the East African opportunity comes in.

[00:04:46]According to CIA Africa, Tanzania has an annual soya meal input need of around 200,000 tons, Kenya around 150,000 tons, and Rwanda around 20,000 tons. Those three markets need approximately 370,000 tons of soya meal every year, okay? The combined exportable surpluses from Zambia, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia total around 240,000 tons. The regional shortfall therefore stands at approximately 130,000 tons. India, which has historically supplied some of its gap, is largely out of export market in the short to medium term because its own crop has been small and prices high. In simpler terms, East Africa needs more soya meal than the region producers can supply. Zambia's soya meal is positioned to find ready buyers in Tanzania, Kenya, and Rwanda. Prices are already firming.

[00:05:47]CIA Africa's outlook anticipates continued price support for both Zambian soybeans and soybean meal in the short to medium term. This is the commercial reality on the ground today. Now, place it against where the country is heading.

[00:06:03]The framework is captured in a single sequence of numbers.

[00:06:07]10 10 5 3 3 1 1 representing seven core production and growth targets for the next 5 years. 10 gigawatts of power generation, 10 million tons of maize production, 5 million tourist arrivals, 3 million tons of copper production, 3 million tons of soybean production, 1 million tons of wheat production, 1 billion US dollars of beef exports.

[00:06:33]Combined, these targets are projected to generate an additional 65 billion United States dollars in economic value over the next 5 years. This is a meaningful upgrade from the previously communicated ambitions. The earlier soybean target was 1 million tons by 2031. It has now been tripled to 3 million tons. The tourism arrivals target has moved from 3 million to 5 million. The numbers are bigger and they are being communicated openly to the country and to the investors. The President of the Republic of Zambia, Mr. Hakainde Hichilema, has put the targets on the table publicly, quantitatively, and with the political accountability that comes with a manifesto commitment for 2026-2031.

[00:07:20]Okay?

[00:07:21]>> 100 megawatts, plus another 100, 200 megawatts.

[00:07:25]Bansa, 50 megawatts.

[00:07:27]Milo, so many megawatts. Across the country now, for the first time in the history of our country, we have solar power stations coming up everywhere.

[00:07:41]It's not by chance.

[00:07:43]It is what we designed to be following the drought. And going forward, we'll continue even more.

[00:07:51]Let me put an example back home.

[00:07:56]Each constituency will have not less than 2 MW.

[00:08:01]Now that we have increased the constituencies to 226, you multiply 226 by 2.

[00:08:09]How many MW are you going to get?

[00:08:12]Right?

[00:08:14]Close to 500.

[00:08:16]Close to 500. No, more than more than there about.

[00:08:21]MW in each constituency in every part of Zambia, there will be a solar plant there.

[00:08:28]That is where we are going.

[00:08:30]>> This is exactly what the CIA Africa report ultimately tells us. The agricultural transformation Zambia is pursuing is no longer theoretical. It is showing up in commercial trade flows, in price movements, a regional shortfall analysis, in the attention of independent commodity intelligence firms whose business depends on accurate reading of the real economy. The opportunity is real. The opening is now and the framework to capitalize on it is the one the president has just placed before this country.