The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE ratio) measures market valuation by comparing current prices to 10-year earnings averages, smoothing out market cycles to identify potential bubbles. Currently at 42.78, it is near the dot-com bubble peak of 44, suggesting markets may be overvalued. However, technological revolutions like the internet have historically elevated valuations above historical norms, raising questions about whether this time is truly different or simply reflects new productivity gains from AI and digital transformation.
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Iran Talks Collapse, Strategy & Saylor finally sells BTC, Hyperliquid surges into top 10 | 02/06/26Añadido:
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The Moonshot Dispatch is back again.
We're watching, frantically, watching Jared be frantic.
>> He said he's had everything ready, but there we go. It wouldn't be the beginning of the Moonshot dispatch if Jared wasn't fiddling around with some dials. All right, this week it's not been great. Let's be honest. We are down. Not just because Jared didn't get the start of the didn't nail the start of the dispatch. We're down 7.8% on Bitcoin, man. And Sailor has sold. ETH is down. Well, you know, used to that.
Fear and greed 29, whatever. You know, you know what's crazy actually this week, this is this is the odd part. The NASDAQ five, so the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are both hitting record highs simultaneously >> by crypto week hitting the skids.
>> Yeah.
>> Now, look, I've prepared a story about this and I know we're going to talk a little bit about the Schiller PE ratio, which everybody wants to talk about.
>> Everybody, including a special guest today. Actually, no, he's got something better for us. Skynet. Actually, the main thing I want to introduce today is we have Skynet. So Skynet is a regular contributor to this show particularly in the comments. Uh very knowledgeable chat particularly in crypto and we're really excited to have him here. But before we go across live ask our ask Skynet a few questions. I just want to remind all the Sheila PE we all want to know about it.
What you know we all know what it is. We all love it but we are going to spend some time drill into it. What is it?
What it's all about? Because it actually is going to be a repeating theme for today. And once you get to the end of this episode you will also be just as excited about the Shilip as we are.
Importantly, the Shilip is currently at 42.78.
Now, put you built this thing up so much. Anyway, please continue. I want to hear more.
>> Never have you ever been so excited for a ratio number. I mean, it is a good number. 42 is a great number.
>> 42.78.
>> Take 42. That's a good number. So, once we got that closer to 43, but just keep that number in mind.
>> It's going to come back and it's going to have particular significance in a moment now. All right. Live cross Skynet, are you there?
Good afternoon, gentlemen. How are you guys? Plug >> your headphones.
>> What does Jared will all do? What?
>> Can you hear me, guys?
>> Yes, we can.
>> All right, we can hear you. Yes.
>> Welcome.
>> Thanks.
>> Uh, where'd you been for the last few weeks? Actually, Skynet, we've we've missed you.
>> Yes, I was traveling in Japan. So, whenever you did your live event, I was watching it the next day, unfortunately.
So, no commenting from you. Well, I mean, Japan does have internet and >> Yes.
>> No, I'm just kidding. I'm kidding.
>> Shame on me.
>> Yeah. Surely this is the most important part of your life watching this.
>> It is. It is.
>> Well, the markets are down, but your audience seems to be going up, so that's a good thing.
>> Yeah. Thank Thank you for noticing that.
We were actually surprised. We we we just assumed our audience tracked the uh the market, which was not a good sign, but you know, here we are. Um so Sky it's great to have you along and it's and it's and it's yeah really great to have you contributing. Uh I think plan was today we wanted to have a quick chat to you about hype market because one of the bright spots sparks in the market bright spots in the market absolutely right now has been hyperlquid the team over there seems to be kicking goals and what they're building seems to be pretty pretty significant and it's getting a whole bunch of uh I got some questions around I guess the the reg regulatory clarity but also just you know maybe some technical side of things. Do you want to just should we start there?
Sure. I'm not really the correct user demographic for I'm not a trader. I'm more invest longterm. But I have friends who trade and they use hype and when I ask them aspects that they like about it, you know, it's all the things you speed performance access to real assets I think is is probably the newest aspect of it. A lot of people trading the SpaceX IPO.
Yeah, I think that's a really interesting sort of aspect of what hype is allowing us to do these days, which is trade these things that we couldn't previously trade. You know, something like the SpaceX IPO, good luck getting an allocation kind of thing. You need to be pretty big player. Um, and you can sit there and and you know, degen your way in with a 100 bucks of USDC and, >> you know, have have a go, which I think it's just it's this real democratization of of those kind of markets that previously were locked away for a lot of people. Um, I think that's one of the big things I know. So, as far as I know, like um the SpaceX and the RWAs and all that kind of stuff isn't actually on Hyperlquid, you know, itself. It's on one of those HIP3 or HIP 4, I'm forgetting now markets where they um they kind of it's like something >> yeah something is built on top of Hyperlquid. So like trade XY Z or whatever might be one of the platforms where you can do a lot of this kind of DGEN trading. Um and and I wonder if you know if we look 10 years down the track and assuming Hyperlquid's still around um it's going to be a case where the actual hyperlquid markets are kind of small and it's really everything that's been built on top of them that that has just you know captured the imagination of everyone and captured the mind share and captured you know people's dollars.
Um yeah and people you know you might not even know you're trading on Hyperlid you're just trading on some platform which which is awesome >> and and you know you can use crypto to get involved.
>> Yeah. I think they somehow found to generate a fly during what's otherwise a fair market for most other assets and they're getting attention and that gets more attention because the usage they have a buyback function for hype and that pumps the price up >> as more usage goes along and it's uh it's sort of this flywheel between buyback attention more usage um >> yeah how does do you know anything about the buybacks because I know it's like you know hyperlid that or the hype team didn't invent buybacks, right? There's been a lot of protocols that have done it in the past and a lot of them have sort of gained flak for it. Mainly, I'm guessing because, you know, people are sort of suggesting, look, you're doing buybacks, which is nice if you're just trying to pump the price of this token, but really we want you to be investing this money into making the protocol better kind of thing. And and so it it hasn't been, you know, this this all-encompassing, you know, up only kind of mechanism. It's it's it hasn't worked out that well for a lot of other tokens.
Whereas for Hyperlquid, it's a real selling point as you say, like you know, it's one of the first things you mentioned. I know like I think last week we spoke about it. They're doing something like 97 to 99% of the revenue like the the platform fees that they earn are just going straight back into buying hype.
>> Yes.
>> Why is it different? Why do do you have any thoughts on that?
>> Um I'm not entirely sure about their exact buyback mechanism and whether it's published. I'm sure I'm sure it is, but there's that they're doing meaningful percentages of centralized exchanges as a as a decentralized uh uh place. So, it's kind of kills off the the old DeFi, which was you'd have to trade off between performance and self-custody. This seems to be somehow straddling both those worlds where it gives you performance um and self-custody. So, um, you know, subsecond finality, it's it's its own layer 1 onchain order book. Um, and it's it's not just hype that's kind of catching a bit. This this whole idea of decentralized purp and lighter and those two are, if you look at the charts of those projects, they're they're doing similar things just not at the same scale as hype.
>> Yeah. Right. So the market seems to be interested in this this this idea of a decentralized herb exchange.
>> Yeah. Okay. I did read something about Aster the other day because I kind of forgotten about it. I know like back in the day when we first started talking about Hyperlid, Lighter was, you know, a big competitor. Then we had the what was it the October 11 flash crash or whatever they're calling it. And um and uh Lighter and Hyperlid had very different kind of ways of liquidating or at least >> Yes, >> it seems that way. Um, and so there's a lot of chat about that. Like, you know, lighter sort of got into them into the, you know, the mind share at that point, but I really haven't heard anything about it recently. And to be honest, I thought Aster I didn't realize Aster had been doing well. I haven't been checking the price. I think I do own some AA actually. I might have bought some.
Yeah, I've got some >> at the beginning. I'm assuming I'm like 80% down, but maybe I'm not. Maybe I'm rich now and I need to go and check.
>> I haven't been able to check log into a few accounts lately. I just haven't. I shouldn't say I'm not able to. I just haven't.
>> Yeah, you've decided not to. Fair enough. It's good for your mental health.
>> Correct.
>> What do we got here?
>> Quick uh comment from the comments. Oh, look. And we've got a new camera.
>> Uh back to eating ramen, guys.
>> Back to eating ramen. It's tough out there.
>> It's tough out there, folks. Stay safe.
Uh Skynet. Well, first question. How well have we captured your likeness with this image of you? I imagine it's pretty close. Yeah, Jared asked for something to put on the screen, so I thought I'd uh instead of just being the T800, I'd put on a skin suit, and I chose Brave Heart as a skin suit.
>> Yeah, makes sense.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. And okay, so back to sort of the hype hyperlquid um discussion, there seem to be moving or making a gamble on moving into the prediction markets as well, taking Koshi and the like uh you know, head on. What do you think about that move? Yeah, there's actually a crossover topic here, which is um the the Michael Sailor selling or strategy selling their their Bitcoin this week.
there was a a market on poly markets for that exact outcome and you could bet on the particular dates and the the one specifically that was um meant to resolve to yes has actually resolved to no and it's under dispute at the moment.
So um technically he sold those those coins in the last week in the in the month of May which you would think the the yes would have uh would have won out but now it's under dispute and um it's going through a stress test of you know how well is this decentralized external oracle with a voting governance system going to be applied and I think this is where if if they don't handle that correctly the the um hyperlquid HIP4 or markets which is the part you're referring to where you can you can generate essentially a poly market on hyperlquid um might be uh where people put their faith in. I'd be interested to know if the hyperlquid betting markets had the same, you know, the same bet, the same market and whether it, you know, resolved correctly or not. But this is something that's always interested me how like something that's open source can has to be anchored to real life in some way for these betting markets. You have to have someone some, you know, you can be as decentralized as you want, but there's got to be some kind of central authority almost saying, you know, this happened and and we agree this happened and and therefore this these people won and these people lost kind of thing. And now we're going through this yeah as you say this sort of um dispute process where where you know uh Poly Market said one thing and a bunch of people were like nah that's [ __ ] I I actually I won I didn't lose and yeah now how do you how do you get your money back like who do you sue because poly market's not available and you know we can't get in Australia you can't get in the US it's a lot of places you can't actually so I'm guessing if you're in Australia you can't really sue them because you're not supposed to be using them in the first place >> what's to stop Sailor himself from going, "Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna sell on June the 3 and put all the bets on himself."
>> 100% insider trading.
>> Okay.
>> Um, nothing's to stop him. Nothing nothing can stop him. However, obviously like, you know, if if this market was regulated and it's well, even if it's not regulated, he could be, you know, he would be investigated for fraud basically. So, this like the the courts, someone would sue him. The courts would say, "Look, you know, you've clearly tried to manipulate markets here." Um, >> look, this seems to be part of the the bigger question that we're sort of seeing now, not just for um, uh, poly markets like Hyperlid, you know, has thrived really in an offshore unregulated market as have all these platforms. The bigger question to me at the m the moment is like how is this going to cross over into, you know, a regulated environment.
>> You know, we just saw the CFTC come out and uh provide approved regul regulated per on Coinbase and everything like that. So how does that affect the go these kind of projects and their crossover into this more regulated world for this kind of issue?
>> I mean Hyperlid there was some news recently and honestly I didn't look at it too much maybe Skynet knows more about it but um they did there was some regulatory stuff coming through where the governments were looking like the US government was looking at doing something with Hyperlquid and everyone was like oh that's it it's done it's it's it's all over. No it's all over.
People were saying no it's it's you know they're going to get regulated into obscurity kind of thing. they're not going to be able to do anything. And that I think the price of Hyperlid was like $57 at that point. And here we are at 75 or whatever we're at now. Um so it clearly didn't clearly wasn't a problem.
And it turned out as you as you say it was a it was a it was a productive thing for the Hyperlquid token. Um do you know anything more about that one? Yeah, I think what you're referring to is um when people were reading the details of the markedup clarity bill and part of the uh qualifications for um a uh something that would be approved by the clarity bill is decentralization and meaningful decentralization. So there's some wording or or or sentences in there about um the ability to roll back chains and uh the number of validators in governor. So on hyperlquid, if I'm not wrong, I think it's 24 or 28 validators that control the the entire process. Um, and so I think under the the language that the clarity bill went through under or or passed was um it would not qualify because it's not sufficiently decentralized enough.
>> In fact, I think it was only two networks that actually got the tick. Um, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
>> Yes, I do remember that. Um, I think we spoke about that one last week as well.
Obviously, you wouldn't know because you weren't listening last week. Well, oh, I suppose you listened afterwards, so I can't really have a go. You weren't listening along.
>> Yeah, I listened the following day to keep your stats up.
>> Thank you.
>> All right, you're doing your part. I get it. Yeah, we talked about the last week how sort of Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be the only two that actually showed up.
Bitcoin obviously is, you know, this, as far as we're concerned these days, like a store of value type um crypto.
Ethereum was the only one that has smart contracts and you can do like real fancy finance stuff on it. So really, it was in a bucket of one like of these of these networks that actually got the green tick. Um, Hyperlquid, yeah, in my mind is certainly not decentralized.
Like to get these crazy, as you were talking about before, the sub-second finality and amazing stats that allow you to do onchain liquidations and all these fancy things for perpetuals markets, which we'll talk about later.
Um, you need you kind of can't really have a fully decentralized system because it just can't, you know, they're not it's it's almost the blockchain trlemma, right? You can't you can't have one thing. You can't be awesomely fast but also extremely decentralized. it it you just you know something's got to give and we don't Hyperlink would have done a good job at trying to get the tech there and and I'm guessing like any crypto project and I don't know the details of this but I'm assuming their road map has you know further decentralization that they're planning on bringing out um you know that currently they probably have some three of seven multic that underpins the whole thing now I'm guessing and I'm guessing about that but um yeah it's it doesn't surprise me that they didn't they didn't tick the box of being decentralized enough because they are fully centralized They have a very relatively small validator set.
>> Uh okay. Well, the bigger question then, or did I say bigger question, a bigger question is so Hyperlid has undoubtedly been the standout performer certainly this week. It's up 20% or something this week and everything else has, you know, what the bed uh and then some. And like I guess the question is like does you know hyperlquid or you know does it success genuinely represent uh I think I even put this question down shift a shift towards onchain financial infrastructure >> or is it just simply a market darling?
>> No I reckon absolutely shifting. I think we're seeing a lot of the traditional finance sort of um regulated entities looking paying attention to this and going a crap we got to do something because these guys are going to eat our lunch. Um, and they are eating like, you know, Hyperliquid's already bigger than Coinbase from memory, like in terms of trading volume. So, these guys have got to pay attention. There's no there's no like, oh, we can ignore that anymore.
>> Um, they they're just too big. They're doing way too much volume. There's so much interest. People are actually able to trade what they want to trade. Um, >> you know, like if you want to buy, you can. And now with the R RWA stuff, it's not just these crypto people who can get involved. You can buy real, you know, you can buy uranium or copper or whatever. You can buy all this other, you know, real world stuff on there and take a position in in some kind of asset class that's not that has nothing to do with crypto. All you're doing is using the crypto rails, which is kind of the thing, you know, crypto guys have spoken about for probably a decade now, where, you know, the idea is you'll be using crypto, but you won't even know it.
Well, this is this is, you know, the step one. You're dipping your toes into that arena where you're starting to use crypto for stuff that has nothing to do with crypto. At the moment, yes, we absolutely know we're using crypto for it. you got to send USDC from your MetaMask wallet or whatever. But um you know it'll it'll become a time when you're trading on this stuff. Um and you have no idea because you know Ethereum and and again I've hiked back to this a few times. Ethereum have all this great technology that allow you to do amazing things like you know account abstraction and and you can end up with some kind of software on your computer and you have no idea using crypto because it's all just so well abstracted away from you.
Um and yet you know you're actually trading on Hyperlquid but you have no idea.
>> Yeah. So what are your thoughts on that Skynet? I mean again I guess just to repeat the question I mean given Hypes's standout performance do you think this is a genuine shift or is it is it just a market dial and catching a bid for the for the sake of >> Yeah I I tend to agree. I think it is a a shift. But I I guess I'd put the question back to you cuz you would have customers who are like me who just buy assets to just hold them long-term storage for savings and and that sort of purpose. But a portion of your customers are probably dual users. They use Hyperlquid to to DGEN and to trade and to get access to things that they they just wouldn't normally have access to like oil. I remember when Hyperliquid was all over the the timeline when the straight of Hung closed and everyone was making bets either way on which way oil was going to go. Um, and slightly before that, I think you mentioned the uranium trade as well. People were sort of looking at how data centers and all these other infrastructure are sucking up electricity and they assume that the the downstream effect of that is we're going to need to turn on a lot more nuclear generation. So they're they're betting on uh just straight up raw commodities, but I don't think people even know what they're doing when they're on a per exchange. They're not buying the underlying asset. They're just buying the price exposure and they don't care. So you you have this sort of uh two worlds where there are people that are in it for decentralization and uh self-custody and they store all their assets on a on a treasure or a ledger or something like that and then you've got the people who will use hyperlquid and I don't think I don't think the majority of the people on there care about any of that stuff. They care about speed, performance, price and access to to markets so that they can trade. But I guess the question is back to you. Do do you have customers that say the reasons why they would be using Hyperlquid?
>> Um yeah, I don't know. I actually haven't spoke. We we do have so I like I do a bunch of stuff on the OTC desk as well and um we we definitely have a bunch of interest in Hyperlid. Something I've been noticing, you know, like one of those onchain metrics is how much of an asset is stored at exchanges and how much gets, you know, um withdrawn from exchanges. And generally when um for example like if there's a lot of Bitcoin at an exchange, people equate that or liken that to people wanting to sell. So a lot of Bitcoin at exchanges, a lot of Ethereum at exchanges is not a good sign usually. Um and when the exchanges have low Bitcoin and Ethereum, then usually that's sort of suggesting that people are looking to hodddle and and not looking to sell, which is generally, you know, a good thing. Um, something I've noticed recently is we are au we have been a net accumulator of Hyperlquid on on our exchange. So, we're constantly our hot wallet constantly getting too full and I'm having to like send more and more to our cold storage because it's just just people just keep buying it. And I'm and my theory is that it's not that people are look bringing it on to sell because the price just keeps going up and up and up. It's more that people are buying it and I guess our market makers are having to bring more and more onto the exchange because they're selling to our customers and um the customers don't withdraw because you know it's it's an asset they want to hold. It's not really a productive asset. I think you can um stake hyperlquid and get earn a little bit of yield but it's a bit more difficult. So most people just um are looking for you know looking to get exposed to the price. M >> the other obvious thing is that it's just a bright spot in an otherwise dreary market and so it's it's obviously going to attract uh like flies to a moths to a flame. There's there's a few little pockets of uh themes that are that are doing the opposite of the broader market. Privacy being one of them. Zcash seems to be doing pretty well. Um so you get these sort of uh little small pockets of uh of positivity in when the majors are down which is interesting.
>> Yeah. Well I was looking at this as well. So Bitcoin dominance is down recently. Um and you know I guess superficially you could look at this and say okay it's you know why is Bitcoin dominance down? everything's down, but is it just, you know, the the the hypes and the zedcashes of of the market that are really holding up the altcoins and um and it's Bitcoin, you know, and it's just not going up as much as Bitcoin or down as or it's going up much further than Bitcoin is, obviously. Um, as far as I can tell, it's probably not that simple. So yes, hype and zedcash are doing some amazing things especially in this kind of market, but um it seems like a lot of people are moving from so so Bitcoin um dominance is down which kind of suggests that alts are doing better than Bitcoin. I don't think it's that alts are doing well. I think it's just they're not doing as poorly as Bitcoin. Um but it also suggests that uh people are moving from their alts and their bitcoin into uh stable coins and in you know the bottoms of the bare markets when things are not looking good people exit their stable coins into the fiat system because they're like you know I'm done for now kind of thing.
>> Um but we're not really seeing that. It seems like a lot of people are just exiting the crypto the risk assets going into the stable coins and just sitting there and and it's like they're holding on to this you know dry powder. Um, and so that in my mind is kind of good news in a way. Like it's it's a pretty crappy market. But >> I'm glad you raised that point because I've got a I've got a do I have a story for you which come ties back into our favorite ratio of all time.
>> Go on, >> she'll appear. No, not now. I'm saving it.
>> I know that's kind of that's kind of my point. Um I've Yeah, it just seems like people aren't really exiting the stable coin because stable coin market as as we all know is going from strength to strength. Um it's it's really booming. I was Look, I was going to use that as a segue, but I realized we've got some comments. So, we need to take a segue via the comments.
>> Okay.
>> Uh, so Skynet, in fact, this week you can help out with the comments because I'm sure you probably know about this as well. Jared, I think there's one.
There's a comment there. I can't quite see from who says, "Any word uh any word on poor STS?" Oh, yes. With the Bitcoin fork, someone was paying attention. This is you, Nick.
>> Stalks fork.
>> Ecash.
>> All right. Um, yeah. Any any thoughts on e-cash?
No, >> I don't know anything about it. I haven't I haven't read what it is or what I know the basics is that you've you've mentioned before, but >> yeah, sure. All right. Um, no, I don't think there's any any word on the on the e-cash store fork. I've never heard that name before, but um yeah, for those who don't know what it is, essentially ecash is this fork of Bitcoin that this guy Paul Stoz is proposing. Paul's not a just a random guy who's like rocked up and said, "You know what? I see what you're doing here and I can fix it. Is um he's been around for a long time.
He's been in Bitcoin for probably over 10 years now. Um he has proposed this thing called drive chains which is his his solution to the uh security budget problem. Security budget problem is that you know bitcoin is getting used less and less. So there's less and less fees going to uh going to the miners. And if there's less fees going to minor, miners shut down. The less miners we have the less security there is on Bitcoin. and you get into this kind of, you know, spiral of death basically where where um no one's securing Bitcoin. So 50% attacks become more viable, etc., etc. Um Paul Storz has has just, you know, says this is a problem. And to be honest, I kind of agree. I don't love the way we're going right now with at the uh with the um Bitcoin fees. At the moment, it's not such a big deal because we've got the block reward, which kind of um offsets by far any of the fees that are earned. But when as you know the block reward gets harved every four years it becomes more and more important that we have decent um fees for the miners to keep them interested and keep them actually profitable. Um the drive chains idea is a way for way to fix it.
So it's a way to create like side chains on bitcoin uh and and these extra side chains generate their own fees and those fees kind of go directly to the miners without the miners having to do anything which is the important part. So someone who's interested can set up their own drive chain. miners don't have to sit there and research and figure it all out and blah blah blah. They just sit there and continue mining and through this blind merge mining process they earn the fees. Paul Stoz has been trying to push this drive change thing for a long time now. Um many years. Uh and recently he's finally got the shits and said look no one seems to be interested in doing my thing. Um no one's got any, you know, any reason not to as far as he's concerned. I haven't looked into it super deep technically, but as far as he's concerned, no one's provided any reason why not to. So he's decided he's going to go out on his own and create a fork of Bitcoin which includes drive chains. So his proposal is essentially that it's going to be exactly Bitcoin.
There's going to be no changes except for two things. One, the drive chains soft fork code is going to be enabled on on this ecash thing. And two, to try and generate a bit of interest, he's um picked I think 50% or something of the Satoshi era wallets and said 50% of these coins gets distributed to anyone who's like interested in helping me build this project. So he's and and people are sort of calling it that he's stealing Satoshi's coins, right? It's quite like a salacious title there, but I mean the reality is it's not Satoshi's coins. It's in a fork, an ecash fork of of Bitcoin. He's not even trying to call it Bitcoin fork or something. He's he's changed the name completely. He's like, "Look, I'm not trying to >> coin."
>> Yeah. Stocoin.
He's keeping it separate. Um to his credit and and not trying to sort of do any kind of affinity scam, but >> um yeah, this this is the general idea.
Has anything happened? No. I think there's something like 60 something 60 70 maybe days until the date of the fork. So, at this point in time, I'm guessing Paul Stoz is just doing his best to try and drum up as much attention on to this chain as possible.
The worst thing that can happen for him is, you know, attention dies out and no one listens to him and everyone just forgets it's even happening. He needs to do his best to try and, you know, keep everyone talking about it. Um, as far as I'm aware, nothing's changed. He's just pro proceeding ahead with his plan. Um, yeah, if he was making changes to the protocol design now, I think it's probably too late and people wouldn't take him seriously. This kind of thing, you know, you need to figure out ahead of ahead of time and and then present your plan and stick with it. Um, but yeah, sorry to answer that in a long way. That's the answer.
>> No, no, now answer in a short way because I believe you went the long way first.
>> All right, so the short way is any word.
No, >> we could have started there. Uh, no, that's uh Well, hang on. I bet you were you expecting that? That is quite a comprehensive answer. I mean, you should be charging for that kind of stuff.
That's the That's the That is the full brief.
>> Um, all right. So, quick crossover to some questions here from uh Tik Tok. So, Sik six >> kicks kickst not sure. Anyway, thoughts on AUD stable coin. AUD stable coin. All right, I'll uh I'll jump in there. Uh it's going to also please feel free at any point to jump into this. Now, my thoughts on AUD stable coins. So, we we know the team from AUDA. They've been kicking around for quite some time. Um there are I guess four probably made stable coins right now, Australian dollar stable coins. There's AUD, AUDM, AUDX, and AUDF. Um, so I think you know if I was being candid, so AUD is maybe a little bit different to the other ones and it's primarily deployed on Stella I believe. Um, correct me if I'm wrong on Stella. They're on they're on like multiple chains.
>> They're on multiple chain. I think they're on multiple chains. Anyway, my point being >> Stella XRP, Ethereum, Salana, Hideera, Bass, and Red Belly.
>> Awesome. Thank you. Yes, that's why that's why we had you Scott because there someone clarifying. Thank you.
>> That's because I've got their transparency report up in front of me.
That's why >> 13.3 million total liquidity.
>> 33.
>> I think the >> 13.3 are you chat GPT?
>> No, I'm human.
>> GPT correct answers. So >> yeah.
>> Yeah. So I think look the thing with uh the AUD st AUD stable coin like any stable coin right now is big question is well who's going to mint it who's going to use it who's going to hold on to it all right we have the question in my like right now as we all know USDT USDT in particular is the most prevalent stable coin of any kind uh and there's a huge race on for just competition just for US dollar stable coins um so if you get down the list of I guess demand then at some point there's going to be some demand for AU dollar stable coins as well so the big question is, is there enough room in the market and demand in the market for people who want to mint these AU Australian dollar stable coins other than people who are just using them for proxies because they have trouble getting banking or something like that. That's being super candid here. And I think there is a space for them. I do think there is a space for them right now. You know, if I look at those particular projects, I think they're all good projects. uh and you know whether you're choosing AUDM or AUDX or AUD they're all reputable businesses and the good projects and all that kind of stuff. Um but in terms of how they will perform over the long term, I think it just comes down to demand, right? And right now I think there is some I think I can call it nent demand, it's not overwhelming. I mean there all those projects are looking for market fit where they're going to get the most demand from it. I think it's probably a fair way to say, >> you know, they're all starting out. Um, but I think there's going to be room for it and and but I think maybe the rails into how people get those stable coins and I guess the places they're going to take those stable coins is still being built out.
>> They need some killer app. They need some something that really kickstarts demand.
>> Um, I thought it was interesting like can you name four um or let's say five uh US stable coins?
>> Uh well, USDT, USDC, RLUSD um USD is that one?
>> Athena. It's a bit different but yeah.
Uh, and did any of the banks like uh I don't know, Bank of America or someone issue?
>> You see, like I feel like, you know, and to your I think I'd be the same like struggling when you get to sort of four or five. We have four in Australia.
That's a lot, right? Like the competition in for the Australian >> um stable coin market is tough.
>> That's a great point because three in the US.
>> No, I mean there's lots more. We got D, we got um >> Oh, D of course.
>> There's there is actually quite a lot.
There's liked digital. There's >> there's there's a number of um >> and that's Mega >> USD ones. But but like in terms of you know there's there it's it's a long tail, right? Like and they're all kind of tied.
>> I totally forgot about D. That's called something else though now.
>> USDS.
>> USDS. Yes.
>> Yeah.
>> There's a question again from six um and he's asking about RLUSD.
>> Um and asks does have any intention of bringing RLUSD to the platform?
That's well 66 doesn't obviously know independent reserve very well because we've had RLUSD on platform for a long time. In fact, I think we were one of the first places to list it in the world. Um I think there was maybe I'm going to say like three exchanges that listed it all at once when RLUSD was um launched and we were one of them. So yes, we do have plans but those plans were actually a long time ago. Um >> all right, who Oh, Thanos. I love Thanos. Came for the Lambo, stay for the revolution. He don't have a choice, I guess.
>> That's right.
>> Like the rest of us, >> if you don't sell, you haven't lost >> like Jared.
>> Wow.
>> I wouldn't It wouldn't be It wouldn't be It wouldn't be a regular episode if I'd get stuck in your Kadano once. Your ADA.
Sorry.
>> I sold a long time ago. What are you talking about?
>> Now, as advertised, I I promised you ratios, specifically the Chilipe ratio. Oh, I can't wait for this. This is going to be amazing. So, what is the Chilipe ratio?
You might I hear you all asking for the internet.
>> I never never did >> what.
And why does it matter? Well, actually, I'm going to take all take us all back on a little history tour back to the 1990s. The late 1990s when there was a little thing called the dot bubble raging. I guess it wasn't called the bubble then. It was just called the tech boom.
>> Sure.
>> Yeah. It wasn't a bubble yet.
>> Only in hindsight. Now, at that time, uh I don't know how many people are old enough to remember this. I wasn't even old enough to remember this. So I had to just do my research. Warren Buffett was famous now quoted for like staying out of it. Baronss, you know, the Baron's Weekly was saying, "What's wrong with Buffett?" Like what? And he was just, you know, you know, basically everyone was piling him saying he's missing the boom. He's he's fund Berkshire Hathaway had underperformed for a couple years in a row while everyone else is getting rich. But at the time and he has obviously he was obviously vindicated after that because he famously sat on the sidelines with billions hundreds of billions of dollars worth of cash missing out on the uh the well what turned out to be the dotcom boom.com bubble sorry >> um do you know what the shilip ratio was at that time?
>> No I don't. Please tell me.
>> At the peak it was 44.
>> Student listeners where are we now?
>> 42.78.
>> Now here's where it gets you a little interesting. So what is the Chilipe ratio? In really simplistic terms, what it is is an attempt to measure the price to earnings ratio, but on a kind of averaged out over 10 year basis. So it kind of goes, you know what, over the course of 10 years, we appreciate there's going to be, you know, market fluctuations and cycles. So we try and get the valuation over a broader period of time to get a more of a a fair comparison of where we're sort of sitting.
>> Now look, that last pick, that was the dotcom bubble, which Warren Buffett famously set out.
All right. So, what are the analogist points? Man, I just I'm really struggling.
>> I'm really interested in the 1930s bubble. Was that like a a washing machine?
>> No, that was that was the great that was the that was the um that was the Great Depression. That was just before the Great Depression, the the 1920s stock price.
>> So, that was the 20s, right? But like to the end of the 20s and 30s. We spoke about this a long time ago when strategy first became a thing. And there was this so the the idea behind the treasury the you know the treasury companies going out there and buying buying this asset and putting it on their bank sheet and um then buying more and kind of creating this self-fulfilling prophecy. That same thing happened back in the back in the late 20s and I reckon that was probably that um that big bump there.
>> Yeah. And and then like after that happened and that big crash that happened after the like in the early in 1930 early 1930s that was when a bunch of the SEC regulations came out to stop that kind of stuff happening again because people were just doing like completely unrealistic things. Um sorry to go back to that um can we just go back to that Schiller ratio and you've lost it and >> oh okay so I'll add a little bit more context into this. So you go, okay, great. Well, look, the PE rat if we this PE ratio is back up to where it was.
Now, there's probably a few little differences between the dot bubble then and the do well whether it's a bubble now. Look, I don't know. We've got AI right now. Uh we've got a few other things that are definitely keeping the market up, but we also have some tech titans that are genuine produ genuinely producing cash flow. Now, back in the dotcom bubble, I mean, it was all built on hopes, you know, there was a lot of businesses out there that was like, you know, and I guess the question at the time was going, you know, Warren Buffett's an idiot because valuation has changed, man, right? It doesn't matter about actual cash flows and stuff. Just things are just different, right? This time it's totally different. Like these these businesses don't have cash flow, but you know what? The internet's here and it's going to be great. And that's what kind of drove those crazy valuations back at those times. So the question is is it the same or is it a bit different this time because I know obviously there's a lot of value there's a lot of we have you know the what are they called the magnificent seven you know Amazon and Facebook and those ones they are generating genuine multi hundred billion dollar profits year on year out we have the AI boom which potentially is stretching some valuations but this is the question right this is the big question so is are this time actually different or are we just kind of seeing the same thing again >> I mean isn't that the specific reason for this the PE ratio and spec and you know the Schiller's PE ratio is that you know yes they are stretched like that's this is a direct measurement of how stretched the things are because if you if you have a high price to earnings ratio it means the prices you know for your stock are way over what you're earning. So yes they are you know they're earning stuff but they can't be earning that much because look at that PE ratio >> it's way too high. Um I don't know this is and sorry Jared if we just throw back to that PE ratio I know where everyone's loving it right now. Um what I wanted to point out here and and I might be way off base but if you look so on the screen there you can see a faint line just before the.com bubble which is around oh and we've lost it again. Um which is >> hates that he can't wait to get rid of it. Just sort of early 90s there you see that line. So, um, 1992, I'm going to say 1992 is kind of when the internet started taking off, right? When I was a kid, that was about when I first started using the internet. I might not have even have it at home, but like my mate might mates would have had it maybe or I would have known someone and we would have mucked around it and downloaded some websites or whatever using Alta Vista or Netscape Navigator or whatever it was. That was kind of the start. Now, if you look before that line, before that 1992 line, I reckon the average is pretty flat, right? We're sitting at about 15 forever. Yes, there's troughs and peaks and whatever and it goes higher and it goes lower, but it sort of seems like we're around 15 for a long time. How long is that? Like a hundred years where the peak ratio is about 15.
>> A long time.
>> After 1992, like that's just we're starting in an up only mode. And you know, am I wrong? But I'm probably wrong. But um but but to me, I'm like, okay, we've invented the internet.
started the technological advancements have started becoming exponential and we are doing some crazy stuff and yes you know PE ratio by definition says things are overstretched and need to come back down again but as you say maybe it's time we start rerating this stuff and maybe things you know I don't know maybe this is another bubble and we head back down to 15 again or or under 15 but if you look at the trend from 1992 we've now suddenly started going up and the average is closer to like 2530 instead of being around 15.
>> So maybe this is just like the human race is now becoming I'm going off on a tangent here. The human race is just becoming more productive and we're doing these crazy things with the internet and technology.
>> I mean I could everyone anyone I'm sure everyone could talk about how much productivity gains people are gain with claude right for example. It's just insane. It is insane.
>> Um but maybe you're right. I mean the tech the 1992 is a fundamental shift in how humans do business >> and share information and all kinds of things. So >> maybe you've just cracked a cracked a really interesting code there.
>> I mean the PE ratio is going to be like forwardlooking, right? So it's not what we're doing, it's what people are expecting us to do because you know it's it's how how overvalued uh companies are.
>> Or are we just falling in the same old trap of thinking this time is different?
>> Yep. Another very valid option.
>> Don't know.
>> Any thoughts, Skynet?
>> No, not really. It's I think you're using a a method that was established in a a time that's very different to now. And so you've got things now like accounting changes, share buybacks. These things all all change how uh the baseline on on these things, but I don't really have a a good take on the Schiller PE ratio. But I'm glad you did bring up a topic that will rival uh Nick's quantum.
>> Oh wow.
>> Nick's got one that will will put you to sleep and now you've got one that will put him to sleep.
>> The world loves ratios. I'm telling you the golden ratio, the schle ratio.
>> It does go. One thing it does suggest though is that there's this constant doomerism online about we're almost at a top. We're almost at a top. And uh Michael Bur seems to be the type of person like this. He's, you know, famous for the big short and he's out there saying AI is overvalued and uh he gives you a laundry list of reasons why, but it just keeps pushing higher. So >> uh there's this old adage that what's that thing a clock is right once or twice a day.
>> Twice a day. Broken clock. And so twice a day, >> you know, or the other one that's a bit more spicy is people say this person's predicted 46 of the last two recessions.
>> Exactly. Exactly.
>> Yeah. And look, the fact that it's expensive now doesn't mean it can't get more expensive, right? Um >> Yeah.
>> So, all right. The that was amazing cuz we, you know, everyone loved that. Um but importantly there is there is another there's still more to talk about the Schiller PE ratio cuz Schilla who tremendous bloke old man of mine he also created had a hand well guiding influence on another topic that we have just been discussing which is the purpose market I believe.
>> Yeah. So this not just a guiding topic this guy invented it.
>> So back in the 1990s like the early 1990s he um decided he was going to invent a new way to do futures markets.
So prior to that, I'm going to rival I'm going to rival your PE ratio. Boring boring topic with a perpetuals. Now this is something I thought was quite kind of kind of interesting because prior to BitMEX, the the idea of a perpetuals market didn't really exist. If you look back far enough, so to the 90s, the guy who invented perpetuals was the same guy who did this this PE Schiller ratio is Robert J. Schiller is um like 80 years old now. He's he's like a um Nobel Prize winner for economics. He's just he's doing everything. He's he's a pretty good guy. Pretty impressive guy.
>> Robert, can you get a photo of him?
>> It's too hard.
>> I don't want to touch anything.
>> Oh, no. Um, yeah. So, this guy's done done, as you say, done a lot. I thought I thought it might be interesting to talk about perpetuals markets and how they work. So, um, a futures market, which is what it's based on, is the idea where you're kind of predicting what the future price of an asset's going to be.
So, a futures market always has an end date. So you say like in six months time I think the price of wheat is going to be you know $7 a bushel or whatever. Um and I'm going to place my bet and then at and uh when the six months time like when that comes up you kind of have to settle with the bushels of wheat. So you go okay I thought it was going to be seven bucks. It's now six bucks and you pay the difference. And if you you know if you're right you win more you know blah blah blah. So if you're if the price is higher then you win. If it's lower you lose. Um perpetuals market is the idea that futures is cool because you don't actually you can do some trading without actually mcking around with the physical underlying you know wheat. Um but uh you don't want to you don't want to have this end date. You don't want to have to settle at any point. So the idea behind a perpetual market is it's a futurist market with no end date. Um how does it stay in line with the price you ask? Well that's a great question and this was the kind of thing that old mate Schiller had to solve. So again, every time it's >> this is the whole thing. He has to figure out, okay, how do we do a perpetual how do we do a futures market where there's no settlement because the settlement is really the anchor in time.
It's it's the time where you redeem the goods for money.
>> Whereas in a a perpetual market, you never do any redeeming. It's just goes on forever. So how do you make sure the market stays in line? So this is where he invented a couple of things. One was um the funding rate. So funding is if the price is too much too high above the actual rate of the underlying asset um then it it's it becomes expensive for the people who who are who are buying and if it's too low then it becomes expensive for the people who are selling. So it kind of forces it in line.
>> Um and what was the other way you do it?
So I've written written some notes here but forgotten.
>> Um >> oh and it's and and the indexes the index price so the underlying price is linked to liquidations. So you will you will get punished if you if you if the price is too far out um of what the actual index price is. So yeah, he's it's a pretty cool invention. It didn't really get used anywhere. It was just kind of this academic idea that that existed and then there was a Bitcoin um inverse perpetual market created in like the mid 2000 mid2010s I think. But really where it exploded and has just become this thing now that exists in the market was when BitMX did it. So again, for those who don't know, BitMX was this massive futures market for Bitcoin. Um there were claims and and we can do like a little history lesson here. Maybe um Skynet knows more about this than I do, but back in the day there was this huge liquidation event and um BitMX turned off their servers. They basically shut the market down because they knew that if the liquidations kept happening, it would be an actual problem for Bitcoin price because the the perpetuals, you know, forces the real price like they're both in tangent, right? and this thing was just going too low. And so they were like, you know what, we're going to shut this thing down before anything crazy happens. Let the market settle and then we'll turn it back on again. And and it became a real big problem, right?
Because they were kind of manipulating the market in that way. So in in one sense, people were like angry that they suddenly can't trade. You know, price of Bitcoin is dumping then and this this is happening back in like 20 I'm going to say 15 or 16 or something. It's a long time ago.
>> Um the the the price was dumping. Things were getting really bad. people wanted to get out of their positions and they turned they turned the servers off. But the reality is the alternative was potentially worse where Bitcoin could have gone down to such a low level that people were just like this thing's dead.
>> Yeah. It doesn't exist anymore. So it was this weird kind of piece of history where where Arthur Hayes who like spent some time in home jail I believe um for his actions during you know his tenure at BitMX um actually made this call like it was a big deal call or he's like you know what we got to do something we got to do something drastic here or where like the market is in a lot of trouble and like in traditional markets this stuff exists right like you've got um what are they called short circuits right like where the market moves too fast it goes you know it's moving in one direction too quickly um and you have a short circuit protection which kind of stops it from doing that. Um he kind of just manually did this, you know, with like I'm gonna just pull the yank the plug out. I was like, "No, no, thank you." Um but yeah, it's interesting.
Anyway, um the perpetuals were kind of first really used on BitMX and um and and these days, you know, they exist in Hyperlquid. Obviously, BitMX is still around, but Hyperlid is taking everyone's lunch. Um, and they're they're are basically a market of perpetuals perpetual contracts um that that were invented a long time ago but only really used in crypto. I always found that weird like crypto usually follows what traditional finance does but in this case they picked up this bit of technology this thing that that old mate Schiller invented back in the 90s and and go like that's a cool idea. We could actually make use of that here.
>> Absolutely.
>> Has this guy spent his entire life promoting his ideas? Would he be >> stealing his own ideas? Oh >> yeah, very good.
>> Well, he's an academic, so I guess I mean this I remember reading about the Schiller PE ratio in finance class at Union, >> but I don't know. I don't think so. It's it was like like Nixon, it was kind of confined into academic textbooks and the theory, but it was never really done in practice.
>> Yeah, rich.
>> I looked up his net worth actually, just coincidentally. Um doesn't look like he's very rich. So he's he's got like maybe a million bucks to his name or something like that. like, you know, he's not he's he's he's okay, I guess, but he's not mega wealthy. He hasn't sit there and used his PE ratio to trade and make make squillions.
>> That that reminds me of something I've just recently seen. And it's a it's an American talk show uh talk show program where they bring on people who have got financial troubles and they're really blunt about uh how they're going. And um it was this older man, he would have been maybe late 40s, uh marrying a 26y old person straight out of university.
She had 120K in debt and he had a net worth of about $600,000 with his IAS and and properties and stuff like that. And and he was asking the host, should I get a a prenup? And the host just laughed at him and said, you're not worth enough.
And then just laughed at him and they moved on to an ad break. It was great.
Anyway, >> so she's just out of university at 26.
Was she like a doctor?
>> Uh, a nurse, I think. Yeah.
>> Wow. Like that's a lot of university.
She's either not doing many not doing very well and failing classes and having to retake them or she's doing >> four year course took seven years.
>> Yeah. Or she's doing a big course.
>> Yeah. Um, yeah, fair enough.
>> What about >> Yeah, those guys love the PE ratio, I believe. Um, huge Schiller fans just like everyone.
Yes.
>> Yeah. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's why negotiations are broke down because >> No, no. The the Iran just said, "Mate, bring Robert to the table or we ain't talking."
>> Yeah.
>> You heard you first.
>> Uh yeah. What about Iran? So, negotiations are broken down. Trump, I hear, has said he doesn't care anymore.
And then in the next breath, he said he the negotiations are going really quickly and well, so just classic Trump moves. No one listens anymore. Um there's a there's a yeah it's it's bearish times in terms of like macroeconomic views I think. Um >> you know previously we've always got some kind of nice thing on the on the >> on the horizon but right now as far as I know where we've got a bunch of ceasefires but there's still missiles flying. So I can't wait to see what it looks like when there's no ceasefires.
Like if this is what a ceasefire is going to be some bad news for people.
>> We also touched on our newsletter uh the chances of clarity going down. I heard >> down to 55% >> talk about clarity as well and I threw up in my mouth a little bit because we promised we'd never talk about this again.
>> Maybe maybe we can technically skirt us talking about it by asking Skyn to talk about it.
>> Yeah, through technicality.
We've done it to death.
>> I agree with you. Let it be.
>> Yeah. Anyway, I >> Are you trying to say this is not the most important part of our weekly broadcast?
>> How about strategy? That's the topic everyone wants to hear about.
>> Yeah. Yes. Let's talk about strategy.
>> Strategy indeed. So, Michael Sailor F how many times unlike Labour who promised I'd never bring a negative gearing. Did Sailor ever come out and said I'm never selling? And how many times did he say?
>> I'm sure. I don't know how many times, but like in the story we've got here, it's sort of he said you should sell your kidney before selling Bitcoin kind of thing.
>> Oh, maybe I doubt he sold his kidney.
>> Yeah, exactly. Well, this week he has come out and look you know there is some precedence here. Look markets get to jitter has been like titans of a particular industry changed their tune.
Berkshire Hathaway famously sold some uh Apple position back in 2024 and the you know after calling it one of their best investments and then the stock took a tumble brief even if slightly because you know people would wait oh Warren's doing something >> right now strategy sold just 32 bitcoin of a the 84 let me say this out loud 843,76 bitcoin stack they sold but 32 a tiny in absolute terms >> but enormous in symbolic terms M >> so this has been framed as supporting their yield preferred BTC stock I believe uh and part of a broader balance sheet management move but what what's your take on this?
>> So I saw an interesting idea about this one Jared if we've got my photo of the threebody problem. So um this someone's describing this or likening this to the three body problem. So, for those who don't know, three body problems, this famous kind of physics parable or or riddle almost um or not riddle, it's just just a concept where if you have two bodies in space acting on each other with gravity, it's fairly easy to predict how they will move. But the second you introduce a third body into it, it's it's essentially chaos. The third body makes all of these weird things happen and you can't suddenly it becomes extremely complex to try and predict where these three bodies are going to move next. Um, and Sailor's kind of got this three-body problem with um with his with the way he's set everything up. So, his three bodies are the MSTR equity. So, that's the price of his um strategy stock uh called MSTR on the on the stock exchange. His Bitcoin stack, so that's obviously what underpins his whole business, the actual physical Bitcoin that he owns, and his preferred debt stack. So, this is the STRC, and there's another one, I can't remember what it's called now. um his uh like these these yieldbearing um uh offerings that he has. So he's got to somehow hold up all three. But the fact is to you know to to hold up one he's got to knock down another. So he's got this kind of issue here. The the general solution is and we can probably get rid of that image now unless anyone wants to read it more but um the general solution is you know he needs a bunch of cash to underpin the requirements of his business. So the yields, you know, if he wants to buy Bitcoin, he needs cash. If he wants to um uh pay the yield on the on the STRC, he needs cash. And if he wants to show the market that he's, you know, got a a business that runs properly, he needs, you know, to show that he can service those other two things, which will, you know, in turn allow his MSTR, the MSTR stock to go up because people have faith in the business. So he's really struggling at the moment um with the way, you know, the price of Bitcoin is kind of going down. he's opened himself up to all these other instruments. So, back in the day, he didn't have, you know, the SDRC.
So, it was a much more simple problem.
But now that he's got these three things, it just becomes much more difficult for him to juggle. Um, and one of the big issues that he has is that um he he did and and we've spoken about this one before. He has this sort of cash buffer and it was something like one point I'm going to say 1.4 billion dollars. I think it was up to like $2 billion um more recently. But he doesn't like money. He, you know, this he doesn't want to have money sitting on his bank balance. He wants that in Bitcoin because he thinks money is just a dead weight on his balance sheet, right? So, it's it's this weird kind of >> pull and push on from either side. He needs this this latent cash to service these these this threebody problem, but he doesn't want this latent cash because, you know, his whole ethos is about Bitcoin is everything should be in Bitcoin. So, >> he's it's it's he's in this struggle street at the moment. Um, as you say, he sold 32 Bitcoin, which is dust. And and obviously for, you know, anyone who's looking at this, um, realistically, this is not a a big sell at all. This is this is an ide ideological kind of idea that he's brought in. He's he's telescoped to the um market a few weeks ago that he was, you know, going to sell. So, he's kind of prepared everyone for it. He's gotten everyone ready. It's not this surprise thing. And then he's come in sold his sold his little bit of Bitcoin to show that he can do it. Um the thing that I found interesting here is that so the S&P have these two different bodies.
One is um one is like a a group that decides whether you get in the S&P 500 or not kind of thing and they they you know have their own sort of process.
There's this other group of S&P called the innovation something oh no what's it called?
>> I can't remember what it's called now governance something or other that decide that um looks at creditworthiness of of um companies and one of the things so obviously strategy is trying its best. it wants to be in the S&P 500, right? Because if it gets in there, then it's suddenly everyone's a forced buyer of the S&P um of of the sorry of the strategy shares. Uh but it's not there yet due in technicalities. So it it's big enough to be in there, but there's a couple of technicalities. Um one of the things that the credit rating part of S&P said about strategy was that um one of the weaknesses is that he said he's never going to sell Bitcoin. And that ends up becoming a weight on the business because if you can't sell, then what's the point in holding it? like it's it's it's pointless holding this asset you're spending all this money buying that you're never going to realize the the gains on.
>> Um and so this kind of people are sort of looking at this and going, "Okay, he's trying to appease the S&P group and say, look, no, no, we are we aren't a weak business. This isn't a weakness of ours. We can sell if we want to."
>> Um I'm not sure if that's really where it's going. I think he does actually need to sell because of this threebody problem. And so he's just trying to ease ease it into the market and go, look, I can do a little bit here. Look, we're not, you know, this is not the end of the world. He spent a bunch of his cash buffer buying back some of his um preferred debt at a discount. So he's used up a lot of that. Um I think he Yeah, it was up to two two billion at one point. It's now down to 8 or 900 million. So he's used up a lot of that money buying that stuff. Um yeah, that's probably my take on it. I think it's it's a difficult and complex situation.
and he's he's he went from juggling two two things which is the MSTR stock price and Bitcoin and now he's got three plates up in the air and he's constantly trying to you know service each one and make sure they don't fall over and that that was me spinning the plates in the air by the way just imagine there's poles here and here and um >> yeah cool nice in post-prouction um yeah so it's he's got a tough tough situation ahead of him he's got to figure out how to make this thing not fall over and you know as long as soon as Bitcoin starts going up again it's Happy days for him, right? But right now, he's in the depths of this bare market. He's >> I saw a post on Twitter saying Michael Sailor selling what? 60 Bitcoin. 32.
Well, even less. Uh when he's got a pile of however many hundred thousand >> is kind of like converting all your old meme coins to dust just for USDT for gas.
>> It's it's nothing. It's a drop in the bucket.
>> Yeah. But as I say, it's not about the money. He's not he wasn't raising money.
He's more just raising the idea of of of being able to sell. and and look that he does actually have a sell button.
Everyone thought he he only had buyers on his computer, but now actually there is a sell button there.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and can happen.
>> Well, I mean this bare market, right?
This is bare market vibes. There's lots we all know it's a bit of a bare market.
In fact, Glass Node came out this week as another article I'll segue into uh mentioning that recent buyers are slowly capitulating. Uh about 40% of Bitcoin holders are currently underwater.
>> Right. Yeah, that was the one of the most one of the most bearish articles I've ever seen. It was like paragraph after paragraph of new reasons why you should be bearish and you're we're all going to be poor. I was like, "Oh man, didn't want to I just had to stop reading."
>> Well, it's too depressing.
>> Historical hing cycle data is inconclusive. Let's put it that way.
But, you know, in 2012, here's some stats I pulled up. In 2012, the cycle bottomed at a similar point to now, right? The amount of people. But in 2016 and 2020 when I crunched the numbers the cycle meant that we kind of had a few more months to go.
>> Now Tom Lee has come out. So Tom Lee he's a if nothing else Tom Lee is optimistic.
>> Is he not? I mean sure >> he if there was a per person of his optimism it's up.
>> His optimism it's up only >> now. All right. So what did I say before at the beginning? ETH was down 5.2%. But you know Tom Le has come out there and this is my quote from from the week crypto winter rage quitting. This is it.
He said we're done with the crypto winter because it's just people rage quitting at the end. Uh others are floating a short squeeze apparently. Now this is cope if everyone seen it isn't it? Isn't it? Look a bit of cop in there. It's a bit of co there but you know what um every after every if we it considers you know bitcoin or something like that anything in commodities there is always boom and bust cycles in commodities and after every boom and bust cycle we see people asking the question is this just typical market volatility or is this a structural change >> in 1986 for example and you know I love my historical anal analogies do you know what happened in 1986 Jared not you weren't born you weren't born then were you born then was that the year you were born I was I was barely walking but sure.
>> Do you know what was going on in 1986?
>> Duran Duran >> probably. Yeah, probably. There was an oil crash. There was a massive over supply of oil and price of oil back in 1986 crashed from 1930 $36 a barrel down to 10.
>> Wow.
>> Right. Huge huge over supply. Of course, it had massive implications for oil producing countries but not so bad for I guess countries that depended on it.
which led people at the time to say they ask the exact same question and you know is this a was this a structural change or was it you know people just don't need that much oil anymore like we just have too much oil well you asking about Iran fast forward I mean my middlely it has been 40 years but we are still structurally very dependent on oil >> and the price is sitting around what is it 90 odd bucks a barrel now >> more I think >> well doesn't the price dropping to $10 because of supply suggest that the world's oil cartels are keeping the price at a particular price.
>> Oh, maybe they just can't get it out of the straight. It's called hum. I look, I don't know, but it's good question. I mean, this is the point is maybe maybe I guess my question is really like these structural questions, you know, how apt are they? Skynet, I know you got a you've got we've definitely got thoughts on this.
Uh well, how weird is it that we've in the space of 5 years gone from record oil to negative priced oil? If you remember that in 2021, oil went negative because there was nowhere to put it. And apparently you can't just shut these valves off. They must continue to flow otherwise >> it takes uh a long time to restart them.
So yeah, wild swings.
>> Wild.
So, you know, I guess the analogy there is that look, crypto is like anything else, it's volatile. Like, >> is it structurally changed this time?
Probably not.
>> And if it's not structurally change, why why all the why all the panic?
>> I mean, you did talk about booms and busts like, can you point at the last boom in Ethereum?
>> It seems to be a one-way market.
>> In 2021, I believe we hit 6,000. has little blips every now and then, but >> there was a boom.
>> It just doesn't seem to be following the similar pike of boom and bust, just mostly once a boom then a bust.
>> So, yeah. Yeah. So, talking about um Ethereum, Jeffrey Kendrick is a guy from some company called Do you have that article?
>> So, what's his name?
>> Jeffrey Kendrick. He's um >> Oh, from Stan Charters.
>> Stand Charter. That's it. Yes.
>> See, look, I did the research this week, Nick.
>> Yeah. Thank you. because I I have one throwaway line from this, but he's very be uh bullish on Ethereum or at least he's he's trying to buck the trend and he's um and he's saying that, you know, it's not me, it's just it's you and it's Ethereum is like, you know, it's it's going to come good. Don't worry, guys.
Trust me, bro kind of thing.
>> He did say trust me bro. In fact, you know what? He compared it to Amazon.
>> Yeah.
>> Oh, man. I looked I deep I dug into Amazon as well. Everyone loves Amazon now. Everyone knows I don't have to tell you the story of Amazon. Nick, what were you doing in the early 90s?
>> Amazon fell. Okay, so this again I did my research this week, Nick. Good. Here we go. Amazon fell 94% from its peak through its drop in 2000 to 2001.
>> Is that because were they only selling books back then?
>> Was it back OG Amazon? It was right.
That was way before AWS.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. So they were just a book company.
>> Yeah. So yeah, you're quite right. So Jeff, uh, big old big old Jeff, he's come out and said he compared ET's current position to Amazon during the 2001.com bust.
>> And we're not talking about Jeff Bezos, we're talking about Jeffrey.
>> Jeffrey Kendrick. Yeah, the best Jeff.
>> Best Jeff.
Goff, sorry. No, there's no J. He's definitely a Geoff. So Goff is saying he's targeting 4K by the end of the year. And guess what he's saying by just in a mere four years away.
>> How much?
>> 30K.
>> Beth, >> correct?
>> Oh my god. No, >> I think he's posted 40k.
>> Correct. Thank you. Thank you. I I misqued myself here. 40k. Thank you.
>> Quoted ge off.
>> Geoff. Yeah, sorry. Ge off. Thank you for correcting that. Yes. 40k he's predicting by that's 40k US.
>> Wild.
>> Twothirds of a Tom Lee who's predicting 64k.
>> Oh man. So this is what my only comment on this was basically Geoff is Tom Lee with a wig. It's like Tom's come in put a wig on and gone, "Hey guys, I'm from Standard Charter and I ears doing really well. Yeah, if I had more time, I was going to mock up some Tom Lee with a wig image for you, Jared. But >> well, look, look, I hope Goff is right about ETH. But look, if Gay Off is correct, and it is similar, you know, do you know what?
>> What's the PE ratio on that? Maybe.
>> Well, since if you' have bought some uh bought some Amazon um from the original Goff. Oh, no. He's a Jeff. He's a Jeff.
He's a Jeff. From actual Jeff.
>> If you had bought in that two in that.com bust, you'd be up a lazy 100,000%. What? Yep. 100,000.
>> That's what That's That's what your sheet says. Yes, I know. But >> is that according to Santos?
>> That's according to >> Oh, what's it now? It got down.
>> 100,000. Wow. Okay. Yeah, they were on death store then. I'm surprised they survived.
>> How did they do that?
>> Yeah. Many did not recover though. So, that's uh you know, many did not recover.
>> True.
>> Yeah. Incredible story for Amazon.
>> Someone fact checked out 100,000. That's that's a lot.
>> Is there any existence >> run your calculator of it >> of companies that died during the internet com burst bubble >> squillions >> and then but then Lazarus their way back into a successful tech company later on.
>> Sure. Micros Micro Strategy >> Oneell.
>> No way.
>> Cisco >> Cisco.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh, strategy was around and Micro Strategy was around during the com this great thing and maybe you can do it for the short, but one of my favorite memes is this this um Chinese store where they're selling bootleg copies of Windows and on the um it's a physical bricks and mortar and on the window it says Microsoft binos.
>> Yes.
>> So good. My favorite thing, Microsoft.
Anyway, that's incredible. Uh, what was else? Oh, my favorite com stories was pets.com. Do you know what pets.com sold for? Just the domain sold in >> 54 million >> 300 million.
>> Oh, >> because >> just the just the URL.
>> Just the URL because at the time, okay, so it was a bit like the first time I ever used the internet. I remember going to a friend's place and he's like, "Hey, do you want to get on the internet?" I'm like, "Yeah." And he goes, "Well, I got to go do some. I'll just I'll set you up." Cuz I was at his place. He goes, "I got I'll be back cuz I got to go do some chore or whatever." So, he just kind of turned on the internet and went, "Remember the noise?"
>> And and then but he didn't tell me I had to get on a web browser. I had no idea.
Just playing solitary.
>> You just typing boobs into a notepad >> pretty much. Well, I pull out my calculator like 58008.
>> But like I didn't know what to do. I remember sitting there. I was like, "Oh shit." All right. Well, and then I'm like, "Oh." I'm like looking at, you know, looking at internet someone. Um, and then I was like, oh, Internet Explorer. So, I'm like, I should probably click on that. And I clicked on it. And then, but then I was kind of like I was I opened up my first ever web browser and I'm like, where the hell do I go now?
>> Yeah.
>> Right. Where the hell? It's not like Google and stuff was around then. And so, I just kind of was like, I don't even know. I can't remember what I did.
I think I just went to like the university homepage or whoever it was I linked through and be like, >> this sucks.
>> Yeah. Yeah, because universities were like the original internet sort of providers back.
>> The internet was so I went through the we went through the local uni. I just kind of picked they had a website real basic website I guess for whatever it was and I think they had a really simple search function which allowed me to type in something like I think I typed in like Tiger Woods or something cuz I was into golf >> and then but there was there's hardly anything I was like this sucks man and I tell my friend I'm like you know it sucks man >> Tiger Woods too definitely a bubble.
>> There's a couple photos of Tiger Woods like swinging a golf club. There was no videos or anything.
>> Photos, please.
>> You're lucky to get photos. Yeah. Half an hour later when they all downloaded.
>> Yeah.
>> All right. Thanos, what does Skynet think about the Earth price performance?
>> This is the first time we've ever had a commenter talk to another commenter.
>> Can we just leave >> commenter inception?
>> Um, well, I'm ETH Bull. I I run ETH validators personally, so I'm obviously in it for the for the long haul. And it's been a uh a painful 5 years going nowhere. Um long term, I don't know. I you hear these predictions from Tom Lee and the guy you just mentioned from Standard Chartered and they they seem ridiculous, but when you look back at um what the price has done, it's it's not even a a hundth of uh that price performance. So, can it get there? Um I don't know. You'd have to look at the market cap of what what would it be valued at at $40,000 in today's market cap and does it deserve that? It would have to be hosting a hell of a lot of the uh financial infrastructure on top of it.
So I think his predictions that they're all derivative of uh this wave of um usage coming on top of the network.
>> Um whether that actually ends up playing out that way or not, hard to say. Yeah, I think um I think like to me it seems inevitable because everything seems to be pointing at Ethereum. This is kind of what I've said for a long time. Like, you know, I joke about the Ethereum price being so low, it can't go any lower, etc. But Ethereum is, you know, there's a reason why everyone uses it.
There's a reason why so much activity happens on it. The price of the ETH token doesn't seem to reflect that. And my sort of vague high level thinking about this is that you know if you look in the past what is what is ETH used for? Okay, it's a gas token. That's that's its utility. You can use it to do transactions on the network. Um and transactions used to cost a lot more. So people used to have to spend a lot more of Ethereum and used to buy it used to have to buy it meaningfully to actually do their onchain transactions. I remember paying like 10020 bucks to do a DEX transaction back in the day. um you know at its peak and and it was painful but sometimes you know if you're doing like a million dollar trade for someone what's a hundred bucks like it you just have to get it done um whereas these days because of the advances in the ETH's technology it you know things just don't cost nearly as much yes activity is down a bit but you know the active addresses are like I remember last week I think we talked about active addresses were like super >> alltime high and the amount that's staked or validating on the network just reached its highest level ever which is a third so about 33%.
>> So Ethereum Ethereum is is scarcer than before. So much is getting staked.
>> Obviously at the moment we're not seeing real burnbacks from the what was the EIP 59 or whatever >> the burn is um yeah it's it's net inflationary at the moment but there was a period of time where it was deflationary when you were talking about those high gas prices.
>> Yeah, exactly. The the deflationary stuff really requires that high gas price to happen. So because of these tech advances, we're not, you know, we're probably not going to see deflationary ETH for a little while.
We're going to have to have some serious activity happening on chain.
>> But do you see that as as as a reason why the price of ETH just seems to languish because, you know, people just don't need to buy as much of it anymore because because gas is so cheap.
>> I think a couple of things are happening at the same time. one is that Ethereum chose a scaling strategy of layer 2 centric um and so they they allowed all these layer 2 ecosystems to be built up and essentially get um uh they ride for free. they they weren't paying the security costs and they could attract all the users and and out of that base and >> the two ones that it seems to have succeeded >> but at the cost of uh less or lower fees on the base chain. So >> um the the the burn is not offsetting the new issuance. So that period where it was going down the the issuance was negative deflationary uh is over and it's it's inflationary but they're correcting that now and they're going more with a I think the theme they use in the developer calls is return to mainet do all your transactions on mainet but I guess if you're a big financial institution like black rockck or uh standard charters or bank of America what sort of uptime would you need to move your business onto that technology rail. Is 99.76 good enough for you or do you need 99.9 or >> 99.99 the only smart contract that has 100% uptime and so I think the bets that Tom Lee are making and this guy that you mentioned before uh they're just looking at the competition out there obviously Bitcoin has its its one primary use case which is a store of value um but it's not really the greatest at hosting smart contracts. it's only got very limited ability and so the only real option for these organizations is to build on on the base chain. Um >> yeah, >> that makes sense. I totally agree. And yes, the L2 thing was pretty interesting. they decided to scale with L2s and then you know I think it was a couple of months ago Vitalic wrote some long piece about how um L2s shouldn't exist unless there was a specific alternative like use case for them from memory.
>> Yes. Yeah. He wants them to be more less general purpose and more appsp specific the way Hyperlid is app specific.
>> Lighter. Yeah. Exactly.
>> Or lighter. And just regarding the price performance, I think it's also a bit short-term uh weighted because Ethereum's been around about 10 years. Bitcoin's been around what six are we in year 16. Um the and a lot of people say that um Bitcoin's outperformed Ethereum, but if you if you look at it um if you had $100 to put in to Ethereum at the beginning of its network versus $100 to put into 26x on that. So it has outperformed that out performance was weighted at the early stage of the network.
>> How sorry can you explain how you got to that number? So, you know, both were both were worth zero at the beginning.
So, how >> I'm saying at the point in time where Bitcoin existed and then Ethereum >> Oh, I see. I see. I see.
>> The way that you acquired the Ethereum token was through Bitcoin.
>> Yeah.
>> One Bitcoin, I think, Ethereum.
>> So, you have to >> Yeah. Okay. Got it. In the launch. So, it it had an early an early run that was um um that that gave it most of its its returns and it's been sort of languishing trying to to to solve the scalability problem.
>> But I think it's getting there because being being a validator, you somewhat have to pay attention to the developments. Um you got to update your node, you got to run um patches and things like this. So, uh, I follow that and, um, uh, yeah, I think, uh, the gas is, uh, is extremely cheap now, so it's it's preparing itself and and they're actually scaling it another two or three times over the next 12 months. So, >> yeah, I definitely respect that. Like, you know, they could just stop doing work on this gas problem and probably make people pay more and, you know, force the price up a bit, but they're not. They're sitting there. They're playing the real long game >> and saying, "Look, if we want to host, you know, the entire world's finance system on us. We need to be as cheap as possible, as scalable as possible, as decentralized as possible."
>> And so, regardless of what this means, short for the short-term price. Um they they keep shipping these these updates that that aren't great for it, but you know.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh Jared, did did you um and I know we got to wrap up soon because we have been going for plenty of time. So, oh, Duke, did we get a photo? That photo we had of uh um uh Vitalic, if you didn't believe he was in it for the tech.
>> Oh, yeah. No, I didn't get it ready. I'm sorry.
>> Never mind.
>> Because I know you're going to ask.
Let's quickly do the Asia crypto roundup and then we uh then we'll have to thank our guests and wrap it up >> for the cameras.
Should I look? Where do I look? Anyway, the crypto round this week. Uh so standard charters not but this time not ge off. Uh so standard charter launches its first institutional crypto custody in Hong Kong from a globally now start again. Um so standard charter this week has launched its first institutional crypto custody in Hong Kong uh which is its first from a globally systemic bank and South Korean crypto volumes have collapsed.
>> This is crazy. So they've gone from 320 23% of stock market volume in November just in 2024 down to just 8% today.
>> You reckon it has to do with tax?
>> Well, I mean their tax is still so good and and it's not even So the new tax regime which everyone's complaining about over there is going up to 22 or 23% or something capital gains tax. Man, I wish we had 23. Like I'd be laughing.
>> Be laughing. Anyway, yeah, those guys are real cryb babies if they've stopped trading just because they might go up.
It's not even in, you know, not even in full force yet.
>> And look, China is examining new judicial rules for crypto and Binance is entering the Philippines via black shells. There's there's the roundup.
>> All right, >> we got another comment here actually.
>> We got another comment.
>> Um, Thanos, can I borrow your Lambo when you do the re Okay, that was another commenter talking to another commenter.
And we've got a um >> All right, >> Jared's just doing some fancy stuff.
>> We'll throw it up there. But um All right, crowd. Well, should we go this last comment and then wrap it up?
>> Sure.
>> And thank you very much, Skynet, by the way. Thank you for Thank you for stopping by, first of all. It's been great to actually talk with you. Uh we love it. We love that you're always here commenting and adding value to the show.
It's really very appreciated. Very much appreciated.
>> Definitely.
>> Um yeah, and extra time for hanging around and talking talking nonsense with us.
really really appreciate it.
All right, what have we got? Last question. Wait, wait. Ethereum is decentralized because you can do updates every 3 weeks.
>> Really, really decentralized. Uh, I feel like that's not really a question. That seems a little more >> Yeah, that might be a little bit more shots across the bow.
>> You won't catch me this time.
>> Spelling of Ethereum there says it all, I think.
>> All right. Again, thank you special guest Skynet. Really do appreciate having you around. That was amazing. And you've also test you've also become our guinea pig. Now we know we can do live crosses to people live on air. So you've just helped us level up.
>> It was a little bit more advanced than when we called you and just had it playing on the TV and hoping it came through.
>> Uh and we will be back next week with hopefully not so many bare market vibes. What ratio will we do next? You wonder. Whoa.
>> What's Schill going to invent next?
>> Who knows?
>> We'll see you next week. Thank you very much. All right.
>> See you.
Leah Nick with
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