FOMC Day: 99.6% No Move — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's First Meeting

[00:00:00]The other conference though is going to be the FOMC press conference at 2:30 p.m. the first one led by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. He's also going to be giving us the first rate decision under his tenure half an hour before that at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. 99.6% of participants expecting rates to be held steady, not super surprising. We've got a 0.4% chance of a hike. No rate cut odds are being put in here for today's meeting.

[00:00:23]If you look further down the line, December we're seeing that rate hike.

[00:00:27]That's been fairly steady as of late. No cuts being anticipated here going forward. I think the first cut we're seeing even maybe slight chance of would be in June 2027. So, pretty hawkish look going forward. Now, furthermore, I was seeing apparently on Kalshi this was as of 9:00 a.m. or so, so this could have changed, but roughly 70% of traders on Kalshi thinking that we could actually get unity at the Fed for the first time in a while. We've had seven straight meetings with at least one dissenting vote. Now, we actually have some Kalshi traders thinking that with Kevin Warsh here we could have zero dissenting votes. That would be a significant change. We'll have to wait and see if we get another meeting of dissent or if we get zero dissenting votes. Again, we'll learn that in about 3 hours from now at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with the rate decision and the summary of economic projections.

[00:01:12]Back to you.