"연준이 정답을 말했습니다" 마크 모스의 2026년 비트코인 분석

[00:00:00]is that everyone's been talking about this uh four-year cycle of Bitcoin, right? But the calendar was [music] never the mechanism, right? Markets, they don't know what calendars are. It's the same question. Who owns real assets when money gets [music] easier? Now, Bitcoin is just the fastest horse in the race.

[00:00:20][music] [music] The reason why this matters is because we need to know the price of money so we know where the money supply is going. So we know where asset prices are going. So the government uh they dropped the number. The June inflation report came out and headline CPI as I said typically CPI it fell. It fell 0.4% in a single month. Now I know that that sounds minuscule. It doesn't sound like a lot but it's the biggest monthly drop since April of 2020. Now think about that.

[00:00:57]April 2020, that was right when you know the depths of COVID came down, the the lockdowns, all of that. And it was the biggest drop since then. And we saw inflation went up 4.2% down to 3.5%.

[00:01:11]Now, the thing that catching everybody off guard here is that Wall Street expected the opposite. They expected well, they expected a drop of barely, 0.1%. So they got four times more drop than what they expected. And so when you open up the report, the source is pretty obvious. What why did CPI drop? Well, energy fell 5.7% in one month. Gasoline, what you pay at the pump, dropped 9.7%.

[00:01:36]But that's what did the work here. Now, real quick, I decided to make this video because everybody online is calling this data fake, right? The Fed's faking it.

[00:01:43]They just want coverage so they can start lowering rates again, all of that.

[00:01:46]And again, like I said at the intro, I'm the first person to call them out. CP lie, as I call it. They change the basket all the time. Um, but this one, this one matters. This print is telling the truth this time anyway, right? And the composition is how you know gas prices collapsed in June, right? And and you saw that you noticed gas prices coming down hopefully. And the report is just finally catching up to what you see your own life. And nobody's saying, of course, that your gas is cheap. It's still pretty expensive. Energy is still up 15.7% from a year ago. But the question isn't whether prices are high.

[00:02:20]The question to be asking here if you want to know where asset prices are going anyway is which direction the prices are moving and then more specifically why. Now 24 hours before this report dropped oil jumped 9.4% in a single day. Again this is the biggest 1-day move since April. Then the ceasefire with Iran. It broke down on July 8th. We saw tankers getting hit in in the straight of four moves. Uh and the market instantly started to flip. We went from pricing rate cuts in to all of a sudden a better chance, a one in three chance that the Fed is actually going to hike this month. But look, this is still the same economy. It's the same week.

[00:02:59]The inflation data says the one thing and the market is betting on the opposite. So everybody's picking a side here. Half the comments say the numbers are rigged. The other half say oil's going back up, so inflation has to come back up. So then, of course, the Fed has to hike. So both sides are arguing about the same number. But what people seem to be missing is that the referee in the game, the referee got changed. The Fed that everyone seems to be modeling, the one that reacted, you know, in the past to every headline, they got replaced in May. And the new the new referee, the new Fed, they're playing a completely different game. They're playing by a different set of rules. Anyway, now for the last, let's say, four years, the Fed ran on one single doctrine. Any inflation from any source, um, it demanded some sort of response, right?

[00:03:44]Jerome Pal, he would stand up and go to Jackson Hole uh like he did back in 2022. And he told you exactly what that meant. He said fighting inflation would quote bring some pain to households and businesses. Okay, it sounds pretty bad.

[00:03:58]This means that pain was the tool, right? If the Fed would raise rates, making money more expensive, then they could crush demand. And that demand got crushed because people like you and I, we're broke. And uh all of a sudden, those people, well, lots of people were put out of work. And so they were broke.

[00:04:14]And so demand dropped. Now whether the inflation came from too much spending or a broken supply chain, the playbook, it didn't care. Didn't play where it didn't didn't care where the inflation came from, the response was always the same.

[00:04:26]But that's the old rules. And here's what happened to those old rules. The referee changed. Kevin Worsh took the chair on May 15th. At his very first meeting on camera, he rejected the entire framework. He called the inflation versus jobs trade-off a cruel choice. like why do we got to make people broke here? It's cruel. He said that the Fed doesn't have to make that choice. And then he did something that got almost no coverage at all. He launched five task forces to rebuild how the Fed operates. Now, one of them is re-examining the inflation framework itself. And buried in his comments is the line that matters most. worse, he drew a distinction between prices the Fed can't control, oil, eggs, and and the Fed's actual job, stopping those shocks from spreading into everything else. You see, the old Fed, they responded to the source of inflation.

[00:05:17]But the new Fed, they respond to the spread of inflation, right? That's the entire regime change right there.

[00:05:23]Sources versus spread. Now, watch how clean the proof is here. This year, we've seen it play out three times. The experiment ran three times. We saw late February we had war break out with Iran right the straight of hormuz closed and that was roughly about 20% of the world's oil. Now of course when that happened supply shock inflation runs up to 4.2% by May but then June 17th we got a deal signed the US Iran signed a deal and then oil round trips all the way down to the pre-war premium. WTI actually closed below where it sat the day before the war had started. Now 3 weeks later you get the biggest inflation drop in 6 years. Then July 8th, well the ceasefire collapses and then uh war breaks out again and oil jumps 9% in a day. So we saw three doses and we saw three responses. But as you can see the inflation rate of the United States has been tracking one single waterway the straight on the other side of the planet. So I mean of course no demand story is going to survive that chart. The economy though here in the US, it didn't overheat in March. It didn't cool off again in June. It was the straight closed and then the straight opened again. So if the Fed can't control the straight, if the Fed can't control oil, then what's the new trigger? Well, there's one number, core inflation. Everything except food and energy. The number analysts used to strip out and nobody talks about, right?

[00:06:48]This morning it printed 0.0 for the month, which means of course was flat. Now, year-over-year was about 2.6%. And the context here, it makes it land. At the June meeting, the Fed's own projections feared core running at 3.3% this year. And that fear was, of course, the oil shock. They thought the oil shock would leak into everything else in the economy, but it's not. It's not leaking. You see, but under the old rules, today's report is ambiguous.

[00:07:17]Headline collapsed, but oil spiking again. So, I don't know. Who knows? But under the new rules, it's a green light.

[00:07:25]The shock isn't spreading. It's not spreading into the rest of the economy, into the rest of the prices. And that's the only question that the new Fed wor the the worst Fed is asking. But let's play out both parts here. If the war premium in oil unwinds again, you already watched this once, right? Crude gave back most of its spike in June. The headline number flips soft right behind it. Cuts unlock and the repricing happens fast. If the war drags on then headline headline inflation, it gets noisy again. But again, under the new Fed, under the new Fed rules anyway, noisy, it's not part of the policy. The Fed would hold core keeps deciding and governments finance wars through credit and liquidity, right? Just as they have for a long time. So, there's two different paths, but they both go to the same destination. Easier money. That's where they're going. The only difference right here is timing and how bumpy the ride is, which means that the trade was never predicting the war. It's front running the moment that the market reprices the new Fed.

[00:08:44]Fore!

[00:09:00]Foreign! Foreign!

[00:09:25]But let's look at the playbook for this new Fed regime in three moves. And look, knowing what's coming is one piece of this, but knowing how to sequence your own balance sheet ahead of this liquidity turn, like what to hold, in what order against what, that requires a a wealth system and not just a tip.

[00:09:44]Let's look at it in three moves. Okay, so move one is repric your own framework, right? Stop reading inflation reports like it's 2022 cuz it's not. The headline number is now noise in the system. The composition is the signal.

[00:09:59]That's what we're looking for. So, every report from here, you open the table and you check one thing. Is the shock spreading or is it staying contained?

[00:10:08]All right. Now, move two position before the confirmation, not after. Now, June showed you the speed of the move, right?

[00:10:16]Oil unwound, the print flip soft, and the entire rate conversation turned inside of just one month. So when the market reprices the new Fed, maybe July 28th, maybe the meeting after the comment, the comment entries, they're gone, right? The window is the gap between what you know now and what the crowd figures out later. So that gap, that's the whole trade. Okay, move number three, own what fronts liquidity.

[00:10:41]So when markets start pricing easier money, well, capital starts moving ahead of it. And where does it go? Well, it moves into hard assets, right? Gold does this. Real estate does it a little bit slower. Of course, the most liquid sensitive asset on the planet is Bitcoin. So, it's the smallest of all of them, which means it reprices the fastest. Carries no earnings. There's no board of directors. Um, none of that to like muddy the signal. So, it's the purest expression of the liquidity turn.

[00:11:08]Now, one thing I'll say about Bitcoin, I think it's worth uh saying at this point, is that everyone's been talking about this uh four-year cycle of Bitcoin, right? It seems to happen like like magic on a calendar, right? The high has come in about 18 months after the having the low is 12 to 18 months after that. So based off the calendar, the low should be somewhere around September, October of this year. Like it's magic, right? And then you know the number goes back up. But the calendar was never the mechanism, right? Markets, they don't know what calendars are. They don't keep calendars. The cycle is a liquidity cycle. Every major Bitcoin bull market lines up with the global liquidity turn. And so the cycle timing, that's not the reason to act. It's the confirmation that the mechanism is running on schedule. And you don't have to pick Bitcoin over gold or land or real estate or business or whatever you want. It's the same question. Who owns real assets when money gets easier? Now, Bitcoin is just the fastest horse in the race. Now, the Fed changed the rules.

[00:12:07]The market hasn't repriced it yet and the number that settles it prints before the mainstream crowd is even watching because of course the crowd watches headlines. Owners watch the reaction function. So decide which side you're on before the ne next Fed meeting which is July 28th.