Are These Valuations Real? SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs

追加: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Private sector jobs were added to the economy for the month. That was the highest since January of 2025. The May jobs report from the Labor Department will be out on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

[00:00:09]Eastern. And economists are expecting 85,000 jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Joining me now is Fund Strat Global Advisors Managing Director and global head of technical strategy, Mark Newton. Mark, great to see you.

[00:00:23]>> Thank you, Maria. Great.

[00:00:23]>> Thank you so much for being here. So when you see the market repeatedly hitting record high, record high, record high. Do you want to get out of the way and buy into it, trend is your friend or do you want to raise your eyebrows and say, "Wait, something doesn't add up."

[00:00:37]>> Look, five to five 5% backto-back gains is certainly rare. It doesn't happen that much over the course of even the last century. So it is important to consolidate, I think, some of these gains for parts of the technology sector. uh the majority of the market has not seen the same type of movement.

[00:00:54]So it's interesting that we're now starting to see some rotation into areas like you know financials into industrials into healthcare. Those are all very helpful at a time when uh you know technology has gotten so overbought. Uh I would argue you know the two main positives are the fact that um sentiment still does not seem to be fully embracing this market. Yes, there are pockets of froth within memory and semiconductors, but the broader market there's still a really elevated level of bears because of, you know, concerns about the transition of Worsh or, you know, the lack of a complete reopening just yet of the street. We know that we're sort of in the endgame of these negotiations and that's going to happen.

[00:01:34]Uh, but in general, I think it's a positive. The fact that sentiment is not that bullish yet and also the fact that we're seeing a rotation from technology into different parts of the market. Now, it's in the early stages, but that's a very good sign.

[00:01:47]>> With all of these record highs, what a time to go public, and you've got these huge deals coming to market. SpaceX is likely going to come next week. Uh the company, according to reports, set the IPO at $135 a share. They're going to sell 555.6 million shares. The Rocket Company now with a valuation of $1.8 trillion.

[00:02:09]Morning Star is saying it's it's actually worth half of that. Morning Star came out with a report valuing the company at $780 billion dollars. It's going to trade on NASDAQ and NASDAQ Texas. The Elon Muskbacked group also negotiating to pay razor thin fees to Wall Street. They want to pay less than threequarters of a percent for the public offering. Open AAI releasing plans to expand coding agents in a bid to compete with Anthropic. Uh, Anthropic announced its IPO and I just spoke with Ryan Payne in our Word on Wall Street panel and I asked him if a $1.8 trillion valuation was worth it. And then I spoke with Kathy Wood who defended these valuations. SpaceX is her number one holding. Here's Ryan Payne and Kathy Wood. I got to get your reaction to this. Watch.

[00:02:58]>> We keep talking about this big IPO, these three big IPOs that are going to come out. SpaceX, Anthropic, Open AAI, collectively last year they lost $25 billion.

[00:03:08]>> Wow.

[00:03:09]>> Yes. So I think you know everyone's talking about well the do era these these companies didn't make any money.

[00:03:14]Well guess what the three biggest players right now uh arguably in AI uh don't make any money. So I do think you have to be cautious here. I think this >> So how do you think that you arrive at a $ 1.8 trillion valuation for SpaceX? How do you get there?

[00:03:31]How do you get there? Uh well, it is uh it's a platform company uh global communications. It could ultimately uh compete with all of the telos out there as longer term uh Starlink goes direct to consumer. Uh so that's a very big idea. Uh telecommunications is one of the most important sectors out there. Uh and then this orbital data center opportunity is really the heart and soul of the AI revolution. That is a very big idea and I I think for those who have under who are who think this deal is overpriced uh I would refer them to the chat GPT moment uh which really uh became the aha moment for a lot of people. There is a demand shock taking place. The demand for AI seems to be insatiable because of how much productivity it is unlocking.

[00:04:29]>> So Mark, where do you come out on this in terms of the valuation of Space X and all these IPOs in a moment where anything that has a real exposure to AI is booming. I mean, look at Google, Alphabet, you know, it's selling all that stock right now to pay for its AI buildout. Your reaction?

[00:04:45]>> Look, I think it's always been wrong to underestimate Elon Musk. I think that these companies all coming public are are shaping and changing our lives for the better. So yes, many people are uh you know potentially negative on the fact that they're not making enough money, but it's more about the investments. I mean you look at what Google $80 billion and they're vertically integrated and in terms of their own chips. I think it's extraordinary when they have about 150 160 billion on the balance sheet that they're now you know raising the amount of money they are they could spend as much as 300 billion potentially next year in capex. So an extraordinary time.

[00:05:19]It really pays to to uh you know not underestimate what many of these AI companies are doing. Uh compute is the new revenue and it's important to understand uh you know when you have a company like Google with their own LLMs uh you know their own chips that you know it's just a really exciting time and I think that uh they're they're going to be around for for years and years and years to come. So uh you know when when when these stocks start to go up portfolio managers do not want to invest in them. uh technicians like myself, we we really try to stick with trends and uh you know not let the degree of overbought andor uh overvalued uh be a real concern.