THE MEMORY SUPERCYCLE - Samsung’s Meltdown & Micron's $1,000 Target

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back. Well, the market just closed another wild session in the semiconductor space. Another strong day in the memory sector overall. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal, they confirmed our thesis when they posted this article that I shared on the channel of chip stock juggernaut showns no shows no signs of slowing down. If you recall, I I shared that over the weekend, and again, it was a huge confirmation to the thesis that we talk about in this channel, to the demand that we see in the memory sector overall. Today, we saw Sandis hold the $1,500 a share line. Micron charged and actually went over the 800 for a moment.

[00:00:37]We are moving past the speculation phase and into the perfect storm. Between the 10-day countdown to the Samsung strike, the $40 billion CEUS IPO potentially rewriting the physics of compute, the memory wall is just not a hurdle anymore. It is now a gold mine in the market. Today, we're going to break down all the stories surrounding the Fab 4.

[00:01:00]The I'm going to show you the darkpool data and why that data shows this isn't just a peak. It's a structural rerating for the stocks and a rerating for the sector. But guys, if you haven't done it already, hit like, hit subscribe to the channel. We've seen massive growth on this channel over the last few weeks. I appreciate each and every one of you.

[00:01:18]Let's keep it going. If you value the content, if you like these videos I put out each and every day and you haven't subscribed yet, take a moment and do it now. All right, guys. Let's jump in and talk about still the biggest story in the sector. It's the immediate alpha. We talked about it uh yesterday as well.

[00:01:35]It's the fact around the Samsung strike.

[00:01:37]So we are still 10 we are 10 days away now from a general strike at Samsung that could wipe out 4% of the global DRAM supply overnight. But there's a bigger part of the story that I wanted to share with you guys as well. So there has been reports and I'm going to pull it up on the screen. Reports beyond just the strike itself is a huge memory loss of what we're saying. Excuse me, not memory loss but a a engineering defection. What they're calling it on right now. some kind of whisper numbers that we're hearing in industry. You also see articles around it. It also being it's being referred to as the Samsung brain drain. So insiders are confirming you can see that over 200 top tier Samsung engineers have defected to SKHix and Micron in just the fast past few months. This is a yield destruction in real time. You can fix a strike in 18 days, but you can't fix the brain drain that they've had over the last past 18 months. So, let's just look at what the article pulls out down here. And you can see Samsung largest union. We know that 18-day strike starting May 21st. But look at the two other bullet points below it. More than 200 senior engineers have already left Samsung for SKHIX in just the past four months. All due to to the pay gap that's widening across Korea. But also right now in the market, memory engineers worldwide have unprecedented leverage with Micron, TSMC, Intel's foundry as well as SKHix, the hyperscalers are all recruiting aggressively from the Korean fabs.

[00:03:06]They're all recruiting aggressively from Samsung overall. So this is going to have a huge impact not only on just the 21 days that we say, but it's going to have a huge impact on Samsung moving forward by losing their HBM4 talent to the competitors such as SKH Heinix. They aren't they aren't just losing volume.

[00:03:22]They potentially may be losing the roadmap. This isn't about a 3% supply cut. It's about a yield destruction that we're seeing. Even when the strike ends, Samsung faces and will face potentially a knowledge debt. And if their best HBM4 talent is now sitting at a competitor, whether it's SKH Highix, whether it's Micron or another company, the time to market for their nextgen memory has been structurally damaged. The smart money knows this and that's why they're treating Micron as the safe haven for Nvidia's supply chain. As long as Samsung lines are at risk, the pricing power shifts entirely to SKHEX and to the Western fabs including Micron. We are seeing a birth of the quality premium from Micron that the market has never priced in before. And so what we have to jump over and just show you look what that looks like in real time because there were some things that came out today. Mass. I'm just going to show you a few articles and then we'll jump into what the actual performance looked like for Micron. But you can see this from CNBC. Micron shares rising again despite weak overall market. Why memory chip rally seems unstoppable. Micron stock surges 6% on Samsung strike concerns. $1,000 target.

[00:04:32]So let's look at the performance today.

[00:04:34]But the first piece I did want to just just because I teased it there a little bit with the thousand target. I just want to show you. Let me scroll down that first that DA Davidson is no longer the only house on the street that has put a thousand target on Micron. Deutsch Bank has as well. And you could see they set a new high. It's actually a new coverage for them. Uh May 10th, May 10th, they set a new target for them of $1,000 for Micron. DA Davidson, they also reiterated, you can see it in the top line there, they re reiterated their own thousand target. And analyst Melissa Weathers today hit the nail on the head when she said AI fundamentally has broken the old commodity cycle. But we don't just need to listen to the analysts. We need to look at the tape.

[00:05:18]So let's see what Micron actually did today. And you can see on the board $795 they closed at up almost $49 a share over six and a half% in the after hours of the pre-market right now. Another almost $2 on board pushing towards that 800. But if you look to the right, 81867 was a high that it hit today at one point. Guys, remember when I said the stock gets to 8.85, we have a new member of the trillion dollar club if they can hold it there. It is definitely moving in that moving in that way. The momentum is moving in a positive fashion for Micron. So that was a strong day. Let's look at the actual tape itself and see what they did. And you can see how they opened up with let me get rid of that.

[00:06:01]how they opened up with an immediate gap up right out of the gate there. You see like in general, if you take a look at this P candle pattern, I would say it's a huge sign of institutional absorption, but we had a huge gap up right from the right from the get-go right here. You see where it jumped from where we ended on Friday to right to uh right to Monday here. Sorry, my thing was wacky there on me. It jumped to a high of 81867.

[00:06:27]So that's the new 52- week high for the stock. In the first five minutes, it gapped up right to it. And look at the RSI below. The RSI below down here was up in the in the high 80s range. You can't see it because it's covered is about 87 88. So definitely triggered some algorithmic selling in my opinion.

[00:06:45]Probably a bit of profit taking as well once it hit that new 52- week high. But the nice piece if you look at the trend across the board, Micron just continued to have kind of institutional absorption conviction for the stock as it just continued to rally and set new higher highs and kind of new higher lows throughout the day. And we got all the way up to again to about 881650 in this fiveminute candle before we had a little bit of kind of drain at the end of the day, but a nice little response, a nice kind of positive finish to the stock overall. So it gapped up immediately and I think when you look at the volume profile down at below you you see that the RSI is sitting right about 47 right now. It's completely neutral for the stock looking to have some more upside. We saw that massive late surge of volume that pushed the stock back up to the 795 mark. It tells us that despite the intraday volatility that we saw a little bit of bouncing the whales were still using every minor dip to accumulate with Micron. We finished the day with a bullish posture holding just below that psychological level of 800.

[00:07:51]Let's look at what we saw in the block trades overall. If I jump over there, you can see big closing cross as usual what we see with Micron now just because of all some of the the rebalancing we see with the fund. So $3.2 billion closing cross almost 400 million shares right at the 79533.

[00:08:09]But we did have a couple ones that jumped out. One in particular jumped out about 12 seconds after the close for another 234 million at the 795. And if we add all these up, it's probably well over probably about another 100 to 150, a little more with those 40s in here.

[00:08:26]Let's call it another another 150 to 160 million. All again at the 795 level for for Micron. So strong day across the board for Micron. I mean really what we thought we would see. We thought we would see a huge gap up with everything that's happening in the market with Samsung, some of the concerns there. We saw capital rotate to the western fabs.

[00:08:46]We'll rotate to Micron, rotate to the competitors and rotated into some of the storage players as well. So the institutions are viewing Micron right now in my opinion as a critical AI enabler, not a trade. If you're waiting for a dip, if you're one of those investors that are waiting for this stock to dip back to 600 so you can get in, I'm afraid to tell you, but I think you're going to be you're waiting for a train that has already left the station.

[00:09:09]This stock is bound to get over 800. We see price targets coming in well over hitting that thousand mark now. I think DA Davidson, Deutschbank are not going to be the only ones that hit that thousand price target. I think we're going to see more and more just because of what the stock represents in the market right now. all the fundamentals, all the diversified advanced memory products that they offer in the market.

[00:09:30]But let's next jump to the storage king because they were a huge player today, a huge part of the story overall. While the chip names grabbed the headlines, the real deep value pivot today happened with the storage kings of Western Digital and Seagate. Western Digital was up nearly 8% today and Seagate was about six and a half percent. Both hit all-time highs as well. So, let me show you that. And I think if you recall in my video last night, I just mentioned I just felt like Western Digital was going to have a move today. That it was undervalued. It it was lagging the rest of the memory group and that it was going to have a catch-up trade. We saw it today. I thought it would hit 500. I was a little short of my expectation. It actually hit about 516. It was up almost $36, 7.5%.

[00:10:15]We're seeing a slight pullback of less than 0.5%. You know, another$183 in the after hours right now. But the stock had a massive move. If you look over here to the right, it hit 525 today overall setting a new kind of record for the stock. Will we start to see the storage players get back on the trend they were doing where they were setting records every time the market traded. If we look at Seagate, Seagate had a nice day today as well. It was a bit of a leader uh throughout the day as well. Up, you know, almost over six and a half% $51 on the board. 83401 it traded at in the after hours right now.

[00:10:51]another dollar being added on. So 835 right now the stock hit 841 set a new 52- week record. So the storage plays outside of Micron. The storage kings were the huge part of the story today.

[00:11:04]We saw massive movement. We know they were a bit of lagger compared to Micron and SanDisk last week. But it looks like the market is catching up. It looks like they understand the value of these storage companies and they're jumping on board and grabbing them. So huge moves for these companies. Congratulations to each and every one of you that are shareholders on those because they just had a massive day today overall. And the reason I think we've talked about it, but we are moving from this AI training to inference phase. I think with the inference noise around the CER the Cerebrous IPO, it probably pushed a little bit of these players as well in the market. The train you know training needs compute but inference needs retention and every time an AI agent generates data, the exhaust has to be stored. We that's why we saw a massive shortage of high capacity and we still see a massive shortage of high-capacity enterprise HDDs because we are in a capacity war right now in the market.

[00:11:56]Customers are trying to book storage out through 2028 just to ensure that data centers don't go dark. But with the Samsung strike threatening to choke 3 to 4% of the global nan supply, these westernbased storage giants are being rerated right now as national champions.

[00:12:14]Even after today's move, the whales are looking at Western Digital's 170% year-to- date run return or run that they've had. And they realize with almost three and a half billion in quarterly revenue and earnings growth up close to 100% that this company is massively trading at a lower PEG ratio at a discount compared to the GPU names.

[00:12:36]Today's rally just continues to prove that the market has finally stopped treating storage as commodity and treating instead started treating them as as owners of a scarcity asset. I don't expect tomorrow to be as violent as we saw today or as wild we saw today on the market. I think it'll be much more structural. We are looking for a higher low to be established. Micron holds 795. Western Digital holds the 515 level by the noon bell. The strategy remains the same though. what I'm doing and I would recommend for you as well.

[00:13:06]Keep your eyes on the headlines for Samsung. See if there's any news on that strike overall. Then we have to follow the micron and kind of Sandis cash flow.

[00:13:15]So we'll keep our eyes on the whales and the dark pools and see what kind of movement we're seeing with the stock.

[00:13:20]We'll keep our eyes on the volumes throughout the day and see what that looks like for Micron and Sanisk because we've had a massive supply shock that is looming on May 21st. We do have a massive supply shock, excuse me, that is looming on May 21st and a massive archite architectural test with the Cerebrus IPO on May 14th of this week.

[00:13:40]The whales aren't selling into this strength. They are positioning for the thousand era with Micron. We continue to work hard to find the true signals from the noise so you guys can stay ahead of the institutional curve. If you want specific levels and that I'm watching for for the stocks, whether that's the memory, the Fab 4, or if it's Cerebrus, as we get close to the May 14th, make sure you continue to watch the channel.

[00:14:04]I'll keep tracking it. I'll make sure that we track the volume, we analyze the news, and we stay focused on the super cycle, and I'll bring each and every one of those updates directly to you guys in the videos in the days ahead. But I hope you enjoyed tonight's video, and I look forward to seeing you in the next one.

[00:14:18]Take