The Flow Show - Monday 27th April 2026 - It's central bank time

Añadido: 2026-04-29

[00:01:37]Good morning everybody. Welcome to the flow show Monday 27th of April and a busy busy week of central banks and whatnot going on. So, not that we're expecting much action from many, if any.

[00:01:51]Um, but there's going to be plenty to learn from these meetings, how panicky they're going to be getting over inflation and what not and what problems they see on the path, the road ahead.

[00:02:03]So, look forward to that. Morning K, you're all locked and loaded.

[00:02:07]>> Morning Ryan. Morning everybody. Um, yeah, as ready as can be, I suppose.

[00:02:13]another week of uh waiting for what's to see in uh going to happen in the Middle East and then uh uh mostly uh central banks not going to do anything uh likely. So could actually turn out to be a quiet week.

[00:02:28]>> Yeah, hopefully that's a kiss of death and uh it isn't a quiet week [laughter] >> because we don't want that.

[00:02:34]>> Right. Uh let's get stuck into what's been going on. Um, German consumer confidence uh didn't exactly look pretty this morning. It hasn't been looking pretty anyway. Um, but it's looked even less pretty this morning coming in at minus 33 for minus 30.2 expected a minus 28.1 previously. Uh, we saw the UK numbers with similar sort of theme last week as well. minor data, but it just shows that we might be heading for a little bit of a wobbly patch if we weren't ready for that already.

[00:03:09]Um, there's not been much comments, communications out of Asia or anything. So, uh, we're just going to crack on into the rest of the data. We had Canadian retail sales on Friday, which were okay. February numbers also well back in the past. Um, though the flash, well, they call it a flash number. they bring out expectations or what they think March is going to be.

[00:03:33]Apparently that rose 0.6%.

[00:03:37]We also had the Michigan numbers out as well um which showed consumer sentiment overall a little bit better than expected uh in the final numbers though it did confirm that they were negative over um last month.

[00:03:53]Um those inflation numbers obviously ticking up as well. Uh the one year actually came down uh over the flash 4.8 to 4.7 but well up over the 3.8 and the fiveyear actually ticked up to 3.5 from 3.4 in the flash.

[00:04:11]Mr. Pal's got some good news. Um and so has Mr. Trump in one sense. Um the Department of Justice has dropped its probe into him into Pal. Um, so that clears the way for Walsh to get in. Uh, Senator Tillis indicating that he's going to drop his objection to, uh, voting Walsh in. So, a bit of a clear out there for the market. Don't know if that's Trump giving in or what, but, uh, it looks like he's going to get his man.

[00:04:41][snorts] Um, right over in the Iran stuff and, uh, another bit of a wobbly end to the week. Uh, we all started off on the positive side of things. Uh we heard that uh Arachi was going to do a trip little bit of a round robin. He was going to go to Pakistan. He was going to go to Arman and he was going to go to Moscow.

[00:05:03]Um there was talk that there were going to be talks in Pakistan again. A US delegation was apparently going to arrive within 36 hours for second round of talks. Um then we started hearing things going a bit pear-shaped. Um there was news out that Iraqi wasn't going to take part in any US Iran talks and there weren't going to be any US Iran talks.

[00:05:29]Um but that wobbled the other way because Trump said he was going to send Wickoff Kushner to Pakistan for talks.

[00:05:35]Then that got cancelled. Um then Narachi came out saying that uh the talks or the consultations in Pakistan were constructive and they reviewed conditions for an Iran US talks to continue. Um now apparently um Iran has proposed a structured operational mechanism for the straight of Hormuz which apparently would lead to a cease of hostilities.

[00:06:04]Um but at the same time, and this apparently is contrary to reports, Iran is discussing the uranium and nuclear issue with friends and allies and is open for discussion at the negotiating table. So again, that was a bit of a positive.

[00:06:18]Um then another tweet from someone put out saying that uh the latest conditions of Iran have been specified in 10 clauses and they will not retreat from those positions. So, which made it sound like it was the same old same old. Um, long story short, um, we're in no different of position to where we were previously. Um, we still have a ceasefire. Um, don't know what's happened to the deadline. Has it been extended? Has it not? No real idea what's happening with that one. Um, no talks, none seemingly on the horizon anytime soon. Um but K, we're in this situation again, but the market doesn't seem to care. Have are we trading over the risk now and the market's ignoring it? Um because risk is sort of holding up still.

[00:07:09]>> Yeah. Um I don't know if we qualify it like risk or uh is the market getting used to it. People are trying to uh to get energy and stuff via other ways perhaps. uh but as you say we are no further than u when the blockade started because the if if Iran wants to negotiate on the basis of their 10 points u that's exactly what happened at the start of the blockade and the ceasefire so I don't think we're uh we're anywhere near um unless the the US gives in um which up to now hasn't been the case because otherwise negotiators would probably have stayed over there. But um so yeah, it doesn't seem uh doesn't seem that we're any anywhere closer to a to a real solution uh right here and now. So um yeah, we continue we continue to wait. It's a fact that u it's it's yeah risk is one thing but then you also see uh yields sticking up a little bit. So that is not really positive I would say because that's rather um trading the the the stalemate.

[00:08:25]Um but yeah, equity markets are in a in a world of their own and then especially uh I would say the the the US ones were still performing pretty well. Um and the dollar is seemingly getting less and less support um from these kind of the these kind of stalemates. Um it's it's it's rather I think a case of in in time um because we saw like prolonged periods of uh or prolonged 48 hours 72 hours of of dollar strength but now uh every dollar strength is getting countered but we are in the middle of the ranges.

[00:09:04]There's this there's no [laughter] there's no other uh no other obser observation really to have apart from certain currencies. If you look at Euro dollar, we we're smack bang in the middle of um 2026 range so far. Cable is not far. Um yeah. So, but it is a fact that the dollar is getting less and less sustained support right now.

[00:09:27]>> Yeah. So, what you know, where do we go from here? I mean, is Iran just playing hard ball and uh saying, you know, these are our conditions. Either you know, you come down to our level or what you going to do about it? Um are they testing Trump and whether he's going to reignite his attacks?

[00:09:47]>> Definitely they are testing definitely because they have seen that they uh that they can um change the course of negotiations by playing hard ball and uh let's also not forget that somewhere they have I think uh who is it is in is in Russia today right? Um and he's probably going to get a lot of support there as well. So they have u they are not on their own. Um and uh and that makes the situation even uh even more difficult. So um yeah they are definitely playing hard ball. Um is that having a bit of an effect on on the dollar perhaps? It's it's also possible.

[00:10:26]Um again yeah they have seen that they have much more power than what seemed in the beginning. it would have been a short or it should have been a short eliminate some um some key individuals and key potential of strikes but uh the let's not forget that a ceasefire is also Trump was saying or or the US military was saying yeah we need to we need to rearm more munitions and etc. But the same is happening on the other side of the street.

[00:10:58]>> Yeah. So, I mean, does does that while the market's sort of um calming down a bit, does that raise the risk that Trump decides to start attacking again? Um >> um >> because he, you know, he did he did kick it off um in the first place. Is he going to back down that far and keep going down the diplomatic route when he's not getting any any deals done?

[00:11:20]Yeah, it's like um uh it's it's of course a lot more dangerous and and a lot more severe, but it's like a central bank who doesn't want to hike and then all of a sudden he's forced to hike. Um it look he looks like to be in a situation which is pretty difficult um for for the US right now. Um as you say, having started it, how far do you back off? um and and and if he goes in, he knows that he's going to go um also against um Chinese interests and etc. Uh I I think he's in a real difficult situation and um I don't I'm honestly Ryan, I don't I don't know how his reaction will be. Um if it's if it's an animal one, a beast pushed in into a corner is al is always extremely dangerous. But um what are the ramifications if it really goes in very hard um and and thinking especially about what's going to happen afterwards what's going to happen to u to the other countries in uh in the Gulf as well. Um obviously we'll have the support from uh Israel maybe even um I don't know Saudi Arabia or so but um then Pakistan is is is going to be forced to um to to get into the conflict as well. It could be a could be a very very severe situation and I think that bit he's aware of. Um but pulling out he is completely losing face. Right. So I and my honest answer is I don't know what the next step is. I really I don't know.

[00:12:54]>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um the fact is that the fact is that Iran now >> actually they're they're they're influenced regardless what everybody may say about uh oh yeah that percentage of weapons being destructed etc etc but their fear of influence has increased uh instead of diminished right now.

[00:13:16]>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly that. And uh but it means to see what the other Middle East countries say about it as well. um you know they were they've been on the on the side of the US but uh maybe their patients might start wearing thin if nothing is resolved soon. So still a tricky situation to navigate most definitely. Uh Addie, yeah, that was part of what I'm mentioned in the news about proposing a structured operational mechanism u for that. Um did the year have a big gap up? Nope. Um we've had a move up obviously um Sunday night we actually had a small gap down and a nudge down on the bad news and then it's picked up all the way through Asia. Um so that's where we're at at the moment.

[00:14:00]Um and meanwhile talked about dodging bullets. Mr. Trump uh apparently dodged another one uh over the weekend with uh some calling it assassination attempt.

[00:14:11]Whatever happened, this guy decided to uh run a gig that Trump was at. Um he got out of there no problem, but unfortunately a couple of people were injured during that. Um so yeah, dodging more bullets again, which uh you're no doubt used to his advantage. Anyway, um right, that's about it on news front.

[00:14:31]You got anything else, K? Been a bit of a quiet one.

[00:14:34]>> Um it has been a quiet one. Um well I mean our king is going to US after all. So uh is is that going to change anything uh to to to whatever happens in the Middle East is uh is is also uh a big question. I would assume not. But uh you never know. Charles. Uh Charles, I'm not saying that he has influence over over Trump, but um we know that that Trump usually has a pretty okay relationship with the UK um the the the the UK king or queens. Um I don't I don't know if anything can come out of that.

[00:15:16]>> Yeah, I doubt it.

[00:15:18]>> Yeah, I doubt it.

[00:15:19]>> I mean, he like he likes the queen. He doesn't so much like star the king. The queen. The king. He asked the king, but Stalmer's a different ker fish. So, probably nicely >> talk nicely to the king and then uh slag him slag Stalmer off to the king's face, which would be nice.

[00:15:34]>> Um, have you already I I I guess that that was already on Friday, right? The DOJ dropped the probe against Po. Yeah.

[00:15:42]>> Yeah. Yeah. Mention that. Uh, so that's all in the clear and uh Yep. [snorts] should be a green light for Walsh to get in on the back of that. Uh right, so this week what's coming up? We got a big old week. Um there's a fair bit of data out, not a lot today. Um but we kick off around the central banks uh tomorrow uh with the Bank of Japan. Um okay, looks like they're on hold for this one. Yeah, went from um not a not a 100% don't hike, but uh went from a really good chance that they would hike first meeting of the new fiscal year into a very low probability they will after all the um messages that had been sent out surrounding the uncertainty.

[00:16:31]So, um yeah, most likely uh a hold. Um so, the uh as we always do, what would be the surprise? Well, the the real big surprise would be that they hike after all. Um and um that would of course uh send a few shivers through the uh yen market though that um but yeah, likely a hold and uh maybe a little reaction to the downside of the yen again uh which all in all still remains very much on the defensive even if shying away from uh uh the 160. But let's face it, we're we're like a little over half% away, which is not uh uh which is not a hurdle hurdle that couldn't be overcome if they really go on a on a dovish. But I I guess that they will leave the the door open to any of the next meetings to uh to go for a hike as well as soon as uh some of the uncertainty has gone.

[00:17:28]>> Yeah, I definitely don't think we should be expecting a dovish hike at all. It's going to be a cautious hike. Uh sorry, a a dovish hold. Um it's going to be a cautious hold. Um and yeah, they'll they'll keep the uh progressing towards their outlook mantra in and uh keep the the other meetings open. Um but it's all going to depend a lot on what's happening in Iran, I think, as well, which may force them into a longer hold than they would like, but we'll have to wait and see. um we get uh the conference board consumer confidence data tomorrow as well. So that'll be another bit of insight into how the US consumer is holding up.

[00:18:09]Um we get a bit of consumer confidence data from Europe on Wednesday. Um economic sentiment and Italian business and consumer confidence. Um we also get the regional CPI numbers from Germany.

[00:18:24]um doesn't have it on the calendar there, but uh you know that's going to happen when the flash German numbers out at 1 pm UK time. Uh so we'll get all the regional numbers from Germany there. See how inflation's starting off for April.

[00:18:37]Um and we're going to get the April numbers dribbling through now. Um and we get to see, you know, if there is a has been a bigger effect to this Iran stuff than some of the things we saw in March.

[00:18:49]uh durable goods, housing starts and permits uh from the US. Uh then we get the Bank of Canada and obviously the Fed later on. Um there is a presser with the Bank of Canada because it's a monetary policy report meeting. Um you got any expectations for that K? They going to be uh sat in the middle of the road. They've they've got a bit of reason to maybe take a bit more of a hawkish stance. they they had done in, you know, or less dovish stance in other meetings. They're going to go further that way or they they're going to be uh >> unconcerned with what's going on. I don't think that MLM is a hiker, but um [sighs] Rogers um she may be somewhere pushing for for a bit more of a of a hawkish t. So it the the meeting could come out a little bit more hawkish than uh than the prior one where really uh they were on the fence. um a little less dovish than Mlan was before but um now I I don't think they will move um but yeah Canadian dollar is doing is doing well as already noted there by Alani as well so um yeah anything more hawkish could uh could continue to support it a little bit which is probably on the on the on the back of oil as well but there's there's other factors and um for the Canadian dollar to do pretty well I think the the [gasps] even though they are still in in in tangled up in that USMCA with the US. I think uh Carney is and one can can be supportive or or negative towards the person but he does manage Canadians relationships exus uh seems that that the market is is well fully on board is maybe a big word but uh he's not disliking what he does on the international front.

[00:20:48]No, I I couldn't understand that. Um I think maybe we're going to get another return of the old uh dual scenarios, worst cases and um you know what happens if if this Iran thing drags on. They they've done that before, haven't they?

[00:21:03]The Bank of Canada, they've sort of two scenarios that they were like the ECB have now got with their adverse >> scenario. Um we're probably going to get that again from the Bank of Canada. Um if things turn sour, they'll do this. if it's okay, they'll do that sort of thing.

[00:21:19]>> And and I think it's going to be the case for all the central banks that we have this weekend.

[00:21:24]>> Yeah. It's been been touted for the Bank of England to uh do something similar.

[00:21:30]Um sort of a worst case outcome for Iran.

[00:21:33]>> Yeah.

[00:21:33]>> Um and actually Bailey's been summoned by Star um to go and explain what's going to happen uh with this Iran war because he can't wait until Thursday to find out. Um anyway, back to Wednesday.

[00:21:45]We got the Fed as well. Um, again, not expecting anything. They got no certainly got no reason to cut. Um, but uh, if they're going to start getting worried about inflation, this is where we'll hear it. K. Do you think we're going to get any denters apart from the us I mean, well, I say apart from the usual like Miran, but uh, he might actually vote to to stay on hold given what's been going on.

[00:22:08]>> Yeah, that's what he said. Um I think that uh but we saw those inflation numbers in the states here.

[00:22:16]They were they were ticking up but there were no no reason to panic yet there either. So um it's going to be an hour long explaining uh why why there are two scenarios there as well. I think so. Um but yeah they will be sitting on the fence. Powell Powell hasn't been one for um taking uh um okay we had one that that that one insurance uh how we called it cut before but um uh since then I mean they they've they've really been watching all the data and no data are for cuts for sure.

[00:22:51]Um but inflation hasn't spiked to a degree where they should start to panic. Yeah.

[00:22:59]So, um, that's going to be, um, pretty steady hold and waiting for data.

[00:23:06]>> Yeah, I think he's going to be asked four times about the DOJ case, um, before they they start giving up, asking him the same question over and over because he's obviously going to face questions on that.

[00:23:19]>> Um, right, then we go into Thursday.

[00:23:22]>> Could he could he wear a t-shirt like a like a superhero? B men.

[00:23:29]>> No, he wears purple tie.

[00:23:34]>> He loves a bit of purple.

[00:23:35]>> Um, on Thursday we get a bit of data out from Japan retail sales, industrial production. Um, and we get uh some PMI data from China.

[00:23:46]Um, then we start getting in some of the other CPI numbers from Europe as well.

[00:23:51]Get German retail sales. I'm sure they're going to be uh pretty good. Uh some final GDP numbers coming up as well telling CPI.

[00:24:00]Um then we get some GDP data from Europe. Again, that's going to be excellent. Uh then it's the Bank of England and ECB announcement. Um, and this is where well all the all the banks that that give sort of votes um like the BOJ uh they're going to be pretty important especially for things like the Bank of England because it's going to signal potentially how panicky some people are getting over inflation. Uh we know normal times we get the the doves like Dingra voting for cuts whatever. Uh she's like the Bank of England's Mirin uh at times. Um, but I guess for the Bank of England, for this 1K, we're going to be looking to see who might be getting twitchy about inflation and maybe voting for a for a hike. M yeah there is that risk uh both at uh at Bank of England and ECB right for a few uh a few uh well ECB we will we will hear it from the sources pieces afterwards but um uh uh yeah there is a bit of risk but but still you know um I'm not sure whether excuse me I'm not sure whether um 7281 well okay from 63 I I would start to say like okay there's there's a bit of nervosity but as as far as market reaction are concerned um I'm I'm I'm not sure that we should um we should react to anything from between 90 and 72 um it's only as I said from 63 that there may be a bit of explanation to be done um but then still I mean they will still keep uh keep rates on hold and at the end of the at the end of the day that that what's enters the um money managers um models, strike.

[00:25:52]>> Yeah, I think um yeah, I think a 72 is possible. Um that would be my sort of base case. Uh 72 voting for hikes. Um otherwise less less hawkish obviously is 81. I think a 63 would be a that might get the market moving a bit. Um, as you say, show they're maybe getting a bit twitchy over there at the bank. As for the ECB, [snorts] I think even the the most hawkish have ruled out doing anything at this meeting. So, I think we can probably write the the sources piece April too soon uh June of consideration obviously once because they get their forecast in June again. Um, >> so I think >> yeah, likely likely. Yeah, I don't I don't think that even the hawks are going to push for for a hike at the ECB.

[00:26:41]And anyway, um there there's enough of other people over there to uh to keep it in a straight line and not uh not go for a hog a hike this time. So s yes like like little um sensibilities here or there but uh yeah I I I don't know if we need to expect too much uh too much of of of any of those meetings from the Fed or uh or the ECB. Um Addie is saying if Powell doesn't remain on board does that mean that Myin would be more of a permanent voting member? Um I for the time being my is is there to fill uh to fill WS's seat. Um I'm I'm actually not sure what would happen to him uh uh if WS gets it and and Powell decides to leave. I'm uh I haven't really given any thought of it um about it. What's um what's um Powell's uh um where's the uh government of do we know governor of? Do we know that? Uh, which district?

[00:27:46][clears throat] >> Um, no. I don't think he's got a district. He's just on the board of governors. Um, >> which is like a non a nond district thing. Um, >> yeah, he doesn't have a he doesn't have a a governor. He doesn't have a state.

[00:28:02]Not a state, a region.

[00:28:03]>> I don't know what would happen to to Marin to be honest.

[00:28:08]>> Yeah, because Walsh Walsh will be going in without a um without a region.

[00:28:14]That's true. But uh it was said that if if Barl stays on as a governor, uh my is probably going to lose his seat, right?

[00:28:23]>> Yeah. Yeah. And then Yeah. And if it's only if Pal goes, then we have to replace him or whatever.

[00:28:30]>> Um so yeah, uh I don't know. I don't know what Pal will decide. Um if it was up to if it was me, I'd be like giving them all two fingers and saying, "I've had enough of this. I'm off to enjoy my time."

[00:28:41]>> Definitely. Definitely. And make uh half a million or a million dollars per speech somewhere.

[00:28:49]>> Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Um right, what else is going on on Oh, and just to remind you, the Bank of England, uh it's a monetary policy report meeting, so updated forecast. Um so again, we're going to probably get two lots of scenarios, worst case and whatever. Um and we get a press conference, which we're all going to be looking forward to. Listen to Bailey waffle on for an hour now and a bit. Um, then we get some GDP data. Canada and the US jobless claims, uh, PCE. Um, so that'll be an interesting watch. See what, uh, well, it might be an interesting watch if Walsh gets in. PCE might be a thing of the past. K, he's going to change it all up.

[00:29:30]>> But I suspect, uh, Pal's could tip us the nod to what comes out from PCE uh, on Thursday.

[00:29:37]>> Usually does, doesn't he?

[00:29:38]>> Yeah, he usually gives a a thing. Um, now on Friday it's a bit of a wonky day because a lot of Europe is closed uh for a bank holiday. Um, the UK is closed the following Monday. So bear that in mind. There won't be a flow show on the 4th of May. Um, but most of Europe we closed Friday. Um, UK is still open and the US is still open and we'll be getting the ISM uh manufacturing number. Um, no jobs data this week.

[00:30:09]Usually when the first falls on uh a Friday um we don't get the jobs data till the next week. Um so we'll be getting uh NFP on the 8th. So just bear that in mind. No jobs data this Friday.

[00:30:24]So that's it on the calendar. Going to be a potentially busy one. Lots of data, lots of important data coming out all those central banks. Um so I guess we'll see what uh what Marcus going to be doing. Um now a point's been raised in uh our chat room and discussions this morning. We seem to be getting K a lot of volatility elsewhere but unfortunately nothing in uh forex at the moment outside some tepid moments. Uh what's what's the reason behind that? Um is it just markets not trading FX as much or just trading other assets in terms of risk and and the news? V is coming down in uh in FX and and that's that's usually um assigned to trade ranges because it's getting too easy to buy uh the lower the falls, the easier it is to buy options.

[00:31:16]But that means that the more um the more interests are piling up at the at at the the edges of the ranges and that's what makes it very difficult uh or we we need some kind of catalyst to to to break this. Um that is one reason. The other reason I think is that uh short-termers have been maybe a bit tired of the gap opening and then the other way around and uh whenever short short-term are in a position they can make 20 30 points and grab the money. Um and then yeah if you look at uh if you look at bond markets okay there's little moves here and there but they are not really breaking any uh any ranges either. Yes, we had the we could argue that that that the 10s are holding the 420 zone, but we we haven't even tested it. It's it's back above uh uh 430, but we are not breaking above 434 435 and um and in and and then you have equity markets on the other side where we had a little bit of where we had some moves obviously. Um but I mean uh I think there's there's just less flows in uh in in effects right now and the flows that are there are relatively easily absorbed by the lower V environment uh which uh which puts more people at the at the edges of the ranges as I already said and and and there's going to be something needs to be done and and and also those who have been let's say burned in a like uh oh yes this is negative for risk let's uh let's buy dollars and uh and then all of a sudden you've got another side a move to the other side and they have to scramble back to to sell sell all the dollars out so some people have been burdened that then that also takes a bit of interest out of the market and I think we are at a point where well I mean let's wait and see what's what's going to happen uh next you know um it's it's strange, yes and no. But we've had uh periods like that in in the past as well. And and um there's just maybe too much money as well in the market. So more too too much liquidity. And uh we we need something that crunches liquidity whether it's be overloading the liquidity or or taking liquidity out of the market. uh usually made by by by a big headline also um or a big move that that that drives uh the bond markets one way or the other um because there's a lot of talk in the equity markets as well about all those options and all those things. So I mean options is I'm not going to say it's monopoly money. Of course it's not because you got real money involved and people need to hedge etc etc. But all those options that that are turning around in uh in uh in equity markets give a false impression of of um positives or negatives um some at times and um yeah I mean it doesn't necessarily mean if you get a if you have an option in in the equity markets that there is any any effects on the back of it.

[00:34:31]If you if you see equity markets as a driver, um that means for FX at least, that means that that um FX uh Z FX neutral funds need to need to cover stuff. But if you do it all via options, there's maybe not a lot to uh to cover.

[00:34:51]And uh and all of that is is is drag is a drag on uh on volatility in FX markets. um especially if you look then at the uh at the major pairs and then if you especially drill it down to Euro dollar which is as I said basically at in the middle of uh in the middle of the the 2026 range bang in the middle actually uh so that's um that I think is uh is is some of the reasons why we're not moving uh not moving too much and and also I mean if you if you trade FX if you trade let's say the dollar um how How many 180s have we have already since had already or 90° turns or or 180 uh uh rubber on the on on the street um uh in in in in the war situation. So yeah, and I understand why we we are not moving too much.

[00:35:46]Yeah, I think if if it I've been looking at and trading actually uh S&Ps more and more just over all the the Iran stuff because it for me is just the cleanest mover at the moment. Um but it has still got it does seem to have this earnings premium um behind it and we've got another set of big earnings this week as well on top of all the other data. Um, so it's you have to watch this and not get sucked into a full sense of security that it's up because the the world the market thinks everything's fine in the world. We could get over these earnings and it goes right, we've traded that, let's go back to trading on and it comes off 100 ticks. Um, so you've got to be you got to be careful with it uh at the moment even even though it is the the cleanest thing to trade uh on the risk situation at the moment. Um, but that doesn't mean you can't trade because we're sort of talking down trading forex because it's it's quiet. You still got levels. Um, you still >> moves somewhere in in in stuff. If you take away the Euro dollar, >> uh, I mean, there's still there's still some moves here and there. I mean, there are some moves. The thing is we are not breaking ranges.

[00:36:54]>> Yeah. But then you trade the ranges. If you can't break them, you trade them.

[00:36:58]Um, you know, just look what happened last week when we got that move down to the 1660s. Um, held like a demon and here we are, you know, near 100 pips higher. Um, so you've got to you got to have patience. Um, and it's the same exercise. You know, you don't want to get caught in the middle trading around a level where that the price is just glued to at the moment. So, just sit back and wait. Wait for your next level that you would have the biggest conviction in trading. Um, you know, Alli, you're doing that. You want to go long one cable at the 80s again. Um, 13480s. Okay, that's fine.

[00:37:38]Have some patience. But what are you going to do if you don't get there?

[00:37:41]You're going to start jumping in at, you know, 13590 or, you know, 135 whatever.

[00:37:48]Um, on the top side, you know, irrespective of how slow it's moving, you know where your key levels are.

[00:37:53]Doesn't mean they're going to work, you know.

[00:37:56]up here towards 136. It's been a key level. We haven't been above there since February um when we broke down below it.

[00:38:04]So, you know, that's a good level. Um you could get there and think, I'm going to short it. Fine. And it decides it's going to go through. Well, okay. That's trading. That's one trade. You may have to sit and wait two days for it. What you don't want to be doing is trading in here, losing three, four times on different trades um and then getting one on here because then you got to make all that back. Um I'd rather I'd rather, you know, be cautious and trade less and less and be choosy about my levels, the ones that may work better. Um but yeah, the levels the levels are still there. Um, you just got to go over them, pick them out, pick your pairs, see where you can't break, where the where the real big levels are.

[00:38:48]You know, Aussie Kiwi up at this 122 has been a big level. Aussie dollar has been a big level up in the at the 72. Can't get through it. Um, but, you know, if there's big news, then you can try a break trade and it doesn't cost you anything to to go with a buy stop if you're trying to a break trade long. Um, because if you don't break it, you don't enter a trade. What you don't want to be doing is buying it here at 86 87 thinking yes today's the day it's going to break and it goes up touch 72 and then falls all the way back down again.

[00:39:19]Um so you different ways you need to trade things. Um, >> yeah, >> actually being on the Aussie dollar, one that didn't show on the calendar that you uh that you had up there is we have Aussie CPI on Wednesday and uh we know that RBA is uh is itchy, right? Um because they have already hiked um yeah or is or is it maybe on your uh Tuesday night or so? But um uh it and we know that RBA has already hiked. Um I think uh if you want to if you think that the the rest of the central banks may be a bit of a dud um that's an that's one that could be getting very interested because they don't meet this week but we know that they are uh that they are very itchy uh on uh on on inflation over there. So um Aussie dollar could be an interesting one again this week.

[00:40:11]>> Yeah, very much. if that's a hot one that's going to push hike expectations.

[00:40:15]Um, >> and then you got to counter that with what the RBZ have been up to recently.

[00:40:22]>> Um, Alli still euro sterling. Yeah, I'm still keeping an eye on that one. I'm I'm going to be looking at options again this week. think uh I would look at the 86 level uh for a trade just naturally but I'm I'm keeping focus on we've got the elections 7th of May which I don't think K the market is paying too much attention to at the moment um given everything else is going on but I think that might change after the bank of England later this week the market will move into right what's next for the UK and those elections will will pop in so I'm wondering if we'll start to see a bit of pricing going on um because it's a lot A lot of people here in the UK think it's going to go bad for Star. Um so maybe there's there's little market reaction to to be traded.

[00:41:10]>> Um but it could be a question of how bad and uh who picks up votes and what that means for Star. You know, does a leadership challenge go in on May the 8th or is it going to be a dragged out affair? So yeah, there's going to be uh there's there's probably a bit of pricing still to be done after the Bank of England. I think >> Yeah, I think so. And typically we're doing this kind of of it. It looks it looks like it's going to be a between brackets last minute or last days kind of worry uh for the market. We had that initial wobble but then we couldn't get above uh 872030 then euro sterling came back down. Um it's it looks to be it's going to be a last couple of days stuff. So I would expect like especially the Wednesday, Thursday before the elections um to to to perhaps be uh days where Euro Sterling could be on the move. Uh cable of course as well on the back of it. But uh uh if you look at Euro Sterling steer away from the dollar I think. Yeah, especially the the the Wednesday, Thursday before. Um I'm not sure about the Friday because Friday is is usually a bit of a flip the coin, but um uh yeah, especially that that Thursday, Wednesday before the 7th uh is probably going to be uh Oh, actually, hang on. No, the seventh is on a Thursday.

[00:42:32]>> Yeah, 7th is a Thursday.

[00:42:34]>> Okay. So, I mean the the the the Tuesday Wednesday then? Yeah, I I think it's going to probably start from Monday for maybe because I think the Sunday press will be leading up to the election what's going on and uh things like that.

[00:42:49]But yeah, it's going to happen. We know it's going to happen. Um so yeah, I'm I'm currently looking at uh some topside options um 87s 87 and a half uh just in case something goes wobbly. But again, keeping it very cheap, looking for the really cheap strikes.

[00:43:06]Um, don't don't even want to put too much on the line in in these options either. Um, but it's just a cheap punt should something go wobbly. I mean, let's put it into context. Yes, they're local elections. Yes, they're important to to gauge what the the mood of the voter voters are. Um, but, you know, it's not a general election. Um, it's not going to kick out the government and send us to a general election. Um, so, you know, Perhaps we shouldn't get too excited about it, Kane. You know, expect hundreds of pips movement on this.

[00:43:42]>> No, no. I think if we put like a real cheap one on, uh, it takes the direction, we make pips. That's okay.

[00:43:48]Byebye.

[00:43:49]>> Yeah, exactly. uh it's this these kind of moves because the the week after we have already like the king speech where he's supposed to announce some uh some some deregulations for uh to to get London uh um back higher on the investors um um list and um could already be going the other way around after after that one if if if really there is something uh interesting in there. um um deregulation wise. So um yeah, no, if we get a move out of it, take the pips and uh and run and look at something else.

[00:44:27]>> Yeah, I think I think I'll look to maybe add some before the Bank of England. Um because if [clears throat] if they're not hawkish um as maybe the market might expect, then we're probably going to see a bit of a rally in Euro Sterling. Um and I don't want to I don't want to miss this if if this is sort of the lows that we're going to get. Um, and if they are hawkish, it'll just make uh some of those topside strikes cheaper and I'll add a bit more onto that. So, I'm going to be using the Bank of England potentially to set up for the for the rest of it. Uh, right, I'm going to pass it over, mate.

[00:45:00]>> Uh, yeah. Uh, there's not a lot to to really add to what we already uh to what we already spoke about. I'm just going to have a look at what's happening in the metals. Um, it is kind of interesting. I think that um it is so hesitant in uh gold, silver both are both are pretty hesitant and without like really taking a direction there there either we are between 4660 and and 4760 right now it it gold did not rally on the back of the on the back of the the smalls weaker dollar that we have seen this morning. Okay. Yes, it rallied from those lows again, but uh it didn't follow uh suit on the slightly weaker dollar that we saw in effects. It's rather trading the short uh the the interest rates and um I think you have to look rather at interest rates to uh to see where the next move in gold and even silver. If you look at silver, we are just bobbing about above that that 74 and a half neutral line there. um without really wanting to take a direction. It is and it will still be more volatile than gold uh relatively speaking. Um but we we are hesitating there to to to take a fresh direction.

[00:46:19]So I'd rather have a look at interest rates than than than anything else and then for instance currencies or so uh to really um trade this. So trade them separately for what's happening from what's happening in the currency world.

[00:46:32]That is what I would think uh we should do. Euro dollar we're already uh already spoken about 50% of the of the 2026 range. We're we're back on it basically.

[00:46:44]So we don't know what to do. Cable real real real short-term maybe slightly optimistic that we could have a bit of a a go at the 136 again, but it's it showed up a couple of times closed there. It is a it is a a decent support.

[00:47:00]And yes, Ali, you watch at 7580 again. I would I would agree. But then uh also don't forget to watch those lows here that we saw at the end of uh at the end of last week and especially I would say anywhere if it comes down to down to 3040 be a bit careful. Let's say if you scoop some over there um it's could get dangerous if it gets below that 134 3040.

[00:47:26]Maybe we'll have to wait for the Bank of England to really show us a direction on that one. on that one as well. But the two I'm keeping a close eye on again and and actually there are no central bank meetings there nor the RBA or uh or RBNZ but is Aussie came relatively easily back to uh those those prior little highs here before we had that shoot up to 721020.

[00:47:54]72 10 is is still going to be a a big big level in the in the longer term.

[00:47:59]Okay. But um on the on the because as you can see this is really 2021 2025 decline the 61.8 is at 7210. So it's really really very important but also in the in the shorter term it came back relatively easily. Yes, we know that equity markets are uh um rather on the on the rise and on the and and keeping uh well supported. So that's helping.

[00:48:26]But even it's it's doing it's doing relatively well because if I look at those E crosses, even the Kiwi crosses now, they are doing they are doing pretty okay. So I wouldn't be surprised if on any any more like rather positives or so we are getting back up there. If we break above 72885 is going to be an extension for the for the Aussie. Obviously downside 7130 and 7110 very nice confirmation of this uh of this hold here um uh around 79 uh 7110 10:15 and that came on uh what is it Friday morning Thursday late uh Thursday late um Kiwi is doing relatively the same and this time Aussie Kiwi isn't moving much yeah it's it's it's hopping up and down but uh but again uh we are struggling to overcome these or to get uh to those uh uh prior highs. But again there the more you try the higher the chances that that sooner rather than later we will have a real test of this 5935 and it won't be central bank driven. Uh as I said already there are no RBA or RBNZ meetings. So it may be a more interesting move if uh if really we're going to test and potentially may or possibly I should say break it could be that we are on our way to 60 figure after all. Um but for the rest we still in the ranges. The the base thing is that we are still in the ranges. So uh there is perhaps an equal chance here that to to counter this with a with a very tight stop above 5935. But um so the ranges are there but both Aussie and Kiwi I find them coming back relatively easily towards the the the top end of uh of their ranges um that we have seen uh of late. Um and really uh you you've already looked at the S&P right uh Ryan >> just a brief flick so yeah okay we we're still hanging hanging around those highs. Um I'm not ah we we're not too far away from uh from the first uh extension level there. Um I I really for the time being don't really see and especially going into those earnings.

[00:50:48]It's still quite dangerous to counter this because it's just keeps on hanging towards uh towards those highs here. I think we're going to need to to break back below 7100 and hold below there to continue a bit of a retracement. But then again, 7K is already going to be uh an important support here as well. Um but for the time being, I'm not really thinking um thinking about anything specific. Uh Jaho, anything for the yen crosses overnight? Well, I mean, assuming that the Bank of Japan doesn't move, we're probably going to and I'm just keeping showing yen here. I mean, it doesn't really matter too much whether you show yen or or or yen crosses in uh in in current scenario.

[00:51:35]But if they don't move, maybe the market is going to be uh testing the 160 again just a confirmation of they're being cautious etc. But again with every step higher we know that the the the the intervention risk increases right. Um Katyama has told us that she's always ready that she's talking to Bessant virtually on a on a on a daily uh basis and if the Bank of Japan holds um there's actually no reason to sell any of the the Dolly and all the or the end crosses right so um I I still think that sooner or later we are going to retest the the the highs over there um not sure whether it's today or later but the market is is clearly worried and maybe some even know also about about some offers up there or or um yeah that that MOF is really ready to push some buttons if it goes back above 160 but for the time being it's hesitant we should I think though over time there is still very little reason to uh to start buying um yen right um so I don't I don't see the reason to to buy yen right Now uh unless we get a surprise hike and uh UEA comes out against all the messages that they have been sending out saying that uh oh no guys this is a this is a hike uh um cycle the cycle has restarted and we are going to hike but I I don't think we can ever actually uh um expect that from UA back over to you Ryan.

[00:53:14]>> Thank you very much mate. I'm just going to grab it back quickly um [laughter] because we've had uh the CBI um distributive trades uh which is basically retail uh sector coming in at a whopping -68.

[00:53:31]>> Oh wow.

[00:53:32]>> Expected to drop to - 42 which was an improvement over the minus 52. Uh but it's uh gone a bit off the edge of a cliff. Um this is April data. Um so remember we did have uh pretty positive March numbers. Um and the key was are we going to are we going to have another positive first quarter end of the year uh that drops off a cliff. Um we might be doing that. So just keep an eye on that moving forward when we get the hard data. Anyway, that's that for today.

[00:54:02]Hopefully what you set up for the week ahead. Um stay tuned for as we cover all the events that are going on. Have a great week. Have a great day and we'll catch you soon. Bye-bye.