BITCOIN: This Breakout Is NOT As Bullish As You Think!

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]the S&P 500 is stealing the attention of the entirety of the market and it's actually dragging Bitcoin to the upside.

[00:00:06]If we overlay Bitcoin with the S&P 500 and we apply it to the uh the right scale and we go logarithmic mode for example, we can see very clearly uh that Bitcoin as of the last couple of weeks or the last month almost since March has reconnected to the S&P 500. And what I mean by reconnected is very specific here. Bitcoin has not been behaving alongside the S&P uh for the bulk of 2025. Quite frankly, on local levels, but most specifically in the last 6 months, they haven't been coordinated at all. We can see Bitcoin dropping downward significantly while the S&P 500 basically flatlined. Uh and then when the S&P took a massive dive, Bitcoin remained within its current macro price range and actually trended to the upside. Only very recently in the last month has Bitcoin reconnected to the S&P due to absolutely exceptionally bullish price action on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 literally rising up about 16% in a matter of a month. Uh now here's the big issue. This is irrational price action.

[00:01:05]This is not price action unfortunately that we can predict. We cannot predict the S&P after it moves 16% to the upside in one month. And if you think you can, you've lost your mind. That's not what the S&P generally does at all. It never moves this fast. This is exceptional price action under exceptional circumstances mainly driven by the war in Iran. And so this leads us into a big problem. If we can't predict the S&P and the S&P is directly dragging up the Bitcoin price, what do we do? Well, all we can do is look at Bitcoin. And I still sit here and I still claim that Bitcoin is macro bearish. Although in the last 24 to 48 hours there have been some movements in the right direction breaking out of this fractal from 2022 for example. But I still want to highlight some of the issues that Bitcoin is facing. There's a very distinctive fractal coming from the 2022 bare market separate to the broader fractal which we need to be looking at right now. There's strong resistance in this price region and this breakout is not exactly what it seems in my view. So it's a bit of a nuance topic. Uh and we're going to get into it. Before we do so, you need to be on an exchange. If you're going to be buying and selling cryptocurrency, you obviously need a place to do it. And not only that, you probably want a place that has never been hacked before. You want a place that's been secure historically, that's been through crypto winters and crypto summers. That's what Bitunix is. It's been around since 2021. It's never been hacked and it remains globally accessible with a nonkyc option. You don't even need to add your identity to the exchange if you don't want to. So, this is exceptionally good stuff. If you're interested, use my link down below. sign up and you'll get a 15% lifetime discount on fees with that link. So, you can save thousands of dollars just by helping me out and using that link down below. And of course, you're getting access to this great exchange. So, go ahead and do that. One of the guiding principles of this bare market so far has been the fractal from the 2022 bare market, a fivestep fractal, which is based on structure, not necessarily on the exact short-term price movements. And I mean, I don't need to explain this to you. Just look at the screen, right? Every step has been consistent uh with the 2022 bare market so far, except for up until very recently. Unfortunately, now as we edge above the $80,000 zone, we seem to be breaking out uh at least on a short-term level of the current macro range. And quite frankly, the level of time dilution and the percentage gain within step three here makes me believe that that perhaps we're probably deviating from this 2022 fractal. So that that's one of the good things I suppose for the Bitcoin bulls. uh this was going to happen regardless. You're never going to see a bare market exactly follow the entirety of the last bare market. I didn't expect this fractal to remain in play throughout the entirety of the bare market. Uh so it makes sense that we're deviating here, but we are in fact deviating here. Uh and that does open the doorway for potential bullish price action. But the key word there is potential. Uh the bullish price action we've seen over the last let's say two months since the start of February has actually not done too much. Now, 24 hours ago, it did basically nothing.

[00:04:08]Now, we've slightly changed that. Okay, we're going to look into the good news and then we'll look into what I see as the brutal reality, which in in other words, the bad news, right? What is still bearish in the chart. So, the good news is this. Here's the good news. And in order to even discuss the good news, we need to identify Bitcoin's macro ranges. So, we're going to bring up the visible range volume profile. We're going to look for the dips on the visible range volume profile. For example, we have a significant dip at 98,000. That is the top of this price range right here. The bottom of that same price range would be at about 80,000. Uh and the bottom of the price range we just exited was at about 60,000. So these three distinctive red lines, in fact, we can make it four.

[00:04:46]That's the 20 2025 all-time high. Uh represent ranges. So range number one, range number two, range number three.

[00:04:53]Here's the good news. We have broken upwards. It's a short-term breakout. uh it's it's we'll discuss it more in a second but we have in fact broken upwards towards the top of this range and we look to be breaking into the prior price range. Uh this is happening alongside and this is the other good thing that's occurring uh happening alongside a breakout or an alleged breakout of this ascending channel formation on top of that on the momentum indicator. So on the RSI, which is my preferred preferred momentum indicator, we can see a breakout above a line on the RSI that goes back to November 2024, this is good news as well. So this uh breakout from the pattern from the RSI uh from the range of short-term level and deviating from this fractal are all good things that have occurred for Bitcoin, for the Bitcoin bull specifically over the last 24 hours.

[00:05:44]Now, here's why it's not enough to convince me that we're in a bull market.

[00:05:48]Well, the boring point first and then the interesting point second. So the boring point is this. What is a bull market? A bull market is a pattern along along on Bitcoin on any financial asset over a long period of time. A rangebound pattern. A rangebound pattern of higher highs. All right? So HH representing higher highs and higher lows. That is literally all a bull market is by definition. What is a bare market? A bare market is lower highs and lower lows. I told you it was boring. Bear with me. In order for us to be in a trend of higher highs and higher lows and hence a bull market trend, we simply need to be breaking the peak of our prior macro range, which is at $98,000.

[00:06:28]Which means in order to achieve a higher high and hence a bull market, we need to be above $98,000. Plain and simple, and I've stood by that uh for literally months now since we entered this range.

[00:06:37]98K is what is needed for a full confirmation of a Bitcoin bull market.

[00:06:42]And given the scale of the four-year cycle, which we actually don't have a chart for right now. Let's bring up a chart. Four-year cycle chart. Given the scale of the four-year cycle and the fact that it's never broken at this point, the fact that it remains valid, the fact that it suggests an October bottom in 2026, yes, we would be needing to wait for 98,000 for full confirmation that the cycle is in fact severely damaged, maybe even broken, and that we are in fact in a bull market. Now, the thing with the 4year cycle is the 4year cycle hasn't broken yet, but it probably will break at some point. Uh, you know, I'm actually going to make a video in a couple of days on how I think the cycle is probably likely to break in some capacity or at least significantly change before 2023. That's a separate topic. It's based on diminishing returns trends. I'm going to keep that as a separate topic. But as of right now, the cycle remains. And given the fact the cycle remains, full confirmation of a $98,000 breakout is really needed for a bull market to be confirmed. Now, here's the more interesting point that isn't just me brushing off the local price action and referring to long-term. The more interesting point as to why I'm not convinced that this breakout is real in any major sense is this. If we go ahead and delete everything but what currently matters, which is this price range right here, and we look at what happened in 2022, we have to recognize that in 2022, we did the exact same thing. We already know about the 2022 fractal. Yes, it's breaking, but the key point is it was valid for all three of these steps. So, it's valid up until right now uh where it seems to be deviating, but that means that the 2022 fractal based on this bare market in comparison to this bare market uh was very much being followed around the same relative period of time of around January to to April 2022. Bear with me, I'm going to explain this. So, in April 2022, what did we see? What was the distinguishing part of that fractal?

[00:08:29]It was an ascending channel formation, but more specifically outside of the channel formation, the macro price range was actually something like this. This was the price range uh within this step two part of the fractal. It was between around $32,000 and around $46,000. Now, what you'll notice is that we did actually break above that price range.

[00:08:52]We broke above that price range for a period of about 10 days. We hovered above it. In fact, we retested it for support and then we came right back down and fell into a bare market again.

[00:09:02]During this period of time, a lot of people were considering that Bitcoin was in a bull market. It was part of a recovery because it broken out of its macro price range. It turned out to be one big trap. Why did it turn out to be a trap? It turned out to be a trap because there was no volume to follow up this breakout. It was merely Bitcoin putting its head above the water and then diving back down. At this point, a very similar thing seems to be happening. We have Bitcoin poking its head above the water. No supporting volume on this breakout, by the way, whatsoever. This breakout actually not really occurring due to Bitcoin itself, but due to what's happening in the S&P 500. It's not intrinsic to Bitcoin that we're seeing this. And if we're going to be copying 2022, we'd be dropping back under the water here. Now to add to this, if we go ahead and bring up the 200day simple moving average on Bitcoin, we can see that this 200 simple moving average was the exact rejection zone above the macro price range breakout that Bitcoin found in 2022 before dropping down again. It faked out above the range, rejected from a 200, and went back down. We are testing the 200 right now above the range with no volume just like we did in 2022. Meaning we're still in a very high risk position for Bitcoin and we still could actually be copying what happened in 2022. So this fractal is not entirely out the window yet. It looks looks dodgy. But more specifically, rather than looking at this massive fractal, we can even look at a fractal or a a trend or a pattern of what happened in 2022 in relation to an isolated movement. Right? Bitcoin bobbing its head above the price range uh rejecting from a 200 and going back down. That seems to be what could be happening right now. Now, on top of all of this, if we zoom out further again to the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin is still in danger of various long-term metrics. We look, for example, at the 100 EMA, which by the way is one of the most important moving averages on the Bitcoin chart. It literally holds up bare markets. Look at where I'm circling. It literally holds up uh Bitcoin just before the big bare market drop. That's done on the last three bare markets. And as you can see right now, uh, we're testing this level for resistance. It's it's supporting the 200 day moving average, which we just looked at. It's sitting here at 82,000. We just rejected from it. That's bad news. Going ahead and looking at the weekly chart RSI, we can also see this major red band of resistance is still being tested for resistance. We haven't broken above that momentum level on the weekly chart RSI.

[00:11:25]And in terms of our more long-term bull market and bare market indicators like the weekly chart gorian channel, we know for a fact that every time we move through the center line of the gorian channel, we continue moving through it in the direction through which we came.

[00:11:39]Uh we're nowhere near that center line.

[00:11:41]That center line actually sits by coincidence. I don't think it's a coincidence. cuz I think it's how charting works at $98,000 which I've just identified as the necessary level Bitcoin needs to see for a higher high and hence a bull market confirmation. So what I see right now is a Bitcoin that is seeing bullish short-term price action that is perhaps deviating from its larger bare market fractal but is ultimately in no way out of danger whatsoever. not on a longerterm level because it's nowhere near 98,000 and also not on a shorterterm level because we're actually could be copying directly what happened with our fake out from 2022 above the price range. Ultimately, a lot at this point seems like it will depend on what happens with the S&P 500, but I will admit I don't know what the hell is going to happen with the S&P 500. I don't think it's moving rationally and hence I have to fall back on the Bitcoin charts. Right now on the Bitcoin charts, I don't see a macro bullish Bitcoin. I see a Bitcoin that's making steps in the right direction, but Syria still still has serious roadblocks ahead. [clears throat] Uh, so I'm probably going to take the next couple of days off unless something big h big happens here on the charts, in which case I'll update you. But I want to give the charts time to develop here because I think development is very necessary before we say too much. Stay grounded.

[00:12:56]Uh, don't jump the gun on becoming bullish. This chart at this point is not overly bullish. Thank you for watching.

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