"We've Never Seen Anything Like This In Recorded History.": Michael Oliver | Silver Price 2026

本站添加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Well, it decided no more. Now, let's forget the reasons. Maybe it's manipulated. We know there's been a lot of that, institutional manipulation.

[00:00:07]But, the market said no more. I'm out of here. And usually when markets get overpriced at a high, they go down more than they should to correct. And when they're underpriced at a low for too long, when they correct to the upside, they quite often will go maybe twice as far as they reasonably should in an emotional burst, like copper did. We measure silver in a logarithmic scale, instead of an arithmetic normal dollar price chart. Where, you know, already it's more than doubled. [music] You went four bucks to 50, you add $45 on top of 50 and end up with 95. So, when it got to 95 late last year, that doubled [music] the dimension of that range.

[00:00:42]But, when you go to a logarithmic scale, which is the best way to do it, copper, for example, back then, when it went from buck 50 to 410, went up to a ratio scale dimension beyond the prior reality. Silver, if you do the same thing, you had a range from four bucks to 50 repeatedly. Well, that's like a tenfold dimension. Four bucks to 50, right? Ten a little more. What's tenfold above 50? 500. And when you do a monetary assessment, what's the money supply versus where it was in 1980?

[00:01:09]What's the money supply now versus 1980 and 2001? Silver would be up in that range, three to 500, just to catch up to the money degradation. Also, for silver to catch up to its relative value to gold that it's seen over the last half century. In 1980, it was 6 and 1/2% the price of gold. In 2000, 2011, it was 3.1. But, right now you're still below two. So, it's still cheap.

[00:01:32]It's broken out. That spread is broken out favoring silver, and that's why silver's done better over the last 12 months by far than gold. Like I said, up 130 something percent, gold's up 40 something, okay? The next phase should get silver, I think, in a tantrum mood and level probably within three or four months. The issue is to break up out of this consolidation. It's violent consolidation zone. I think we're in the process of that right now, despite today's pullback. Right. So, we're going to go through a period of consolidation, a lot of chop, back and forth.

[00:02:02]>> we're about to emerge. Yeah. Right. And so, do you still have the $300 target by sometime in the summer, maybe late summer? Yeah. I still think it's quite reasonable. I can come up with it so many different ways.

[00:02:15]Um and this pullback that we had, measured by our momentum trend metrics, uh spooked a lot of price people. In no manner [clears throat] did it jeopardize the long-term momentum trend that we measure using quarterly momentum or annual momentum of silver and gold weren't even threatened, okay?

[00:02:31]Especially annual momentum. Whereas at the 2011 gold top, for example, a mere 100 bucks or so off that high, annual momentum blew structure. This time, it didn't break any structure in the drop.

[00:02:42]The only break you had in gold and silver were intermediate metrics, meaning metrics that when they break, they're worth a couple months of downside or wasted time, which is a stumble. It's not a major trend change.

[00:02:56]And those have now dissipated. And silver is now leading gold up out of the hole recently in percent-wise from the March low, for example. Um and I think that silver is now leading us up out of here, and I suspect this pullback you're seeing right now is about to end either today or Monday, and you'll go back up again. The price guys will start to wake up because they don't look at momentum, they don't know about that. They don't know how to use momentum the way we do.

[00:03:19]But when they look at a price chart, you've had four rallies that it is now, including the recent one, up to 90 bucks. They sell it there, they sell it there, they sell it there, they sell [music] it there. You don't make a top that way. You don't keep coming back to the same distribution. I mean, that's persistence is what that says. And particularly, what silver did in March was really bullish cuz it took out the February price low. Recall that the sharp break in January-February stopped at 66 bucks >> [music] >> on silver. We shot back up to 90. We lived in a range. And when the war came out [music] in early March, you had sell-off again in silver again and gold.

[00:03:52]They both went down and they knocked out that low, the Feb low at 66 on silver went to 61 for about 2 hours. That's how fast it was. They broke the low, ran all the sell stops, goodbye, and immediately reversed and shot back up into the range like, "Haha, fooled you."

[00:04:09]>> [music] >> Okay? It was a bear trap, and I think that was the low, the March 23rd low at 61. And I think now you've probably got support right around where you are, in the mid-70s. And all you got to do now is inch back up again toward those highs, the high we saw the week this week, 90 bucks, and you're out [music] of here.

[00:04:25]That's when I think you see that acceleration phase. Okay. Now, you mentioned copper a couple of times, and copper's done very well this year. It's up over 10% on the year.

[00:04:35]It has come under pressure here in the last couple of days, but nonetheless, what's your take on copper? It's long-term bullish. Nothing it's done recently with a pullback that got down in the lower five area and jeopardized anything. It was just a price pullback.

[00:04:47]Momentum said, "Nah, no problem." And now you're you've better up made the highs again. You're well over six again.

[00:04:51]Uh I don't have a target on it, except to say that we think seven or eight bucks would not be surprising whatsoever. Uh I don't think you have a parabolic situation like you have in silver. I mean, if silver goes from 75, 80, 90 to the levels we've been talking about, it would be, you know, copper would be, you know, off the page. I I think it's a silver situation now is the prime focus. Yes, the base metals are going up as the whole complex, commodity complex, is going to go up because it'll be the prime recipient now. I don't care if the economy's weak. That doesn't stop Dr. Copper. That's a myth about copper.

[00:05:24]Uh it can go up in a bad economy. There are plenty of major examples of copper bulls during recessions. Michael Oliver's argument starts with one very simple, but extremely powerful idea.

[00:05:33]Silver has finally decided that [music] the old price world is over. For years, investors looked at silver and treated it like a metal trapped in a cage. It would rally, get everyone excited, hit resistance, collapse, frustrate people, and then go back to sleep. Silver investors became used to disappointment.

[00:05:50]Every time silver tried to break out, the market [music] seemed to slap it back down like a teacher catching a student trying to leave class early. But Oliver's view is that this time is different because the long-term momentum structure has changed. In his words, the market has effectively said, "No more. I am out of here." That one line captures the whole story. Oliver is not simply saying silver is having another rally.

[00:06:11]He is [music] saying silver may be escaping a multi-decade reality. And when markets escape a reality that has lasted for decades, [music] they do not usually move in a polite, predictable, comfortable way. They move emotionally.

[00:06:23]They move violently. They overshoot.

[00:06:25]They punish people [music] who are too late, too leveraged, or too obsessed with short-term price charts. Oliver makes the point that when markets become overpriced at a high, they often fall much further than they reasonably should. But when a market has been underpriced for too long, the opposite happens. When it finally corrects upward, it can also go much further than people think is reasonable. That is the part most investors are not ready for.

[00:06:48]This is why Oliver keeps comparing silver to copper. Copper spent decades inside an old price reality. And then [music] once it broke out, it did not simply move a little higher. It re-rated. It went from being trapped in a prior range to trading in an entirely new dimension. Oliver's point is that silver may be doing the same thing, but potentially in an even more dramatic way. Copper went from roughly $1.50 to over $4, moving far beyond the old range on a ratio or logarithmic [music] basis.

[00:07:16]Silver, he argues, has a much bigger old range to escape from. For decades, silver lived between roughly $4 and $50.

[00:07:23]That is not a small range. On a logarithmic basis, it is more than a tenfold range. So if silver truly breaks out of that old dimension, the next logical zone is not $60 or $80 or even $100. It could be hundreds of dollars.

[00:07:37]This is where Oliver's $300 to $500 silver target comes from. To many people, that number sounds insane, and honestly, that is understandable. Most investors have spent their entire investing life seeing silver below $50.

[00:07:49]So, when someone says $300 silver, the brain reacts like someone just said petrol will be sold by the teaspoon. It sounds absurd because the mind is anchored to the old price range, but Oliver is not pulling the number out of thin air. He says he can arrive at that range in several different ways. Through the logarithmic breakout from the old $4 to $50 range, through monetary degradation since 1980, and through silver's historical relationship to gold. That last point is extremely important. Silver is still cheap relative to gold. [music] In 1980, silver reached around 6.5% of the gold price. In 2011, it reached around 3.1% of the gold price, but even after its huge move, Oliver says silver is still below 2% of gold. That means silver has not even fully caught up to the relative valuation zones it has already seen in past major cycles. This is why he believes silver is still undervalued even after rising dramatically. The public looks at silver's percentage gain and says, "It has already moved too much." Oliver looks at silver relative to gold and says, "It has not even finished catching up." That difference matters because in major monetary metals bull markets, silver often lags gold at first and then begins to outperform aggressively. Gold is the serious elder in the room. It moves first because central banks, institutions, and long-term investors understand it.

[00:09:08]Silver is the wild younger cousin. It frustrates everyone, sleeps through the early part of the party, then suddenly runs through the door screaming, and knocks over the furniture. That is silver's personality, and according to Oliver, silver is now leading gold. Over the last 12 months, he says silver has risen far more than gold, with silver up around 130% while gold is up around 40%. That kind of outperformance is not random. It is a signal that silver may be entering the aggressive phase of the cycle. Silver goes from 75, 80, 90 to the levels we've been talking about. It dropped at 66 bucks and so >> [music] >> we shot back up to 90. We lived in a range and when the war came out in early March, we had a sell-off again in silver again and gold. They both went down and they knocked out that low. They broke the low, ran all the sell stops, goodbye, and immediately reversed and shot back up into the range like, "Haha, fooled you." Okay? It was a bear trap.

[00:10:04]And I think that was the low, the March 21st low at 61. And I think now you've probably got support right around where you are in the mid-70s. And all you got to do now is inch back up again toward those highs, the high we saw this week this week at 90 bucks.

[00:10:17]>> [music] >> And you're out of here. It's cheap versus silver, it's cheap versus gold.

[00:10:21]Plot the spread chart. S&P versus gold oil. It's off the page. It's like it it's a free asset almost when you look at the spread charts. [music] So, I think it's a place to be, but wait for a shakeout. It's just be a pullback in an uptrend. But it's the kind of thing that one should expect because you you sucked in a lot of headline guys.

[00:10:40]And down at 80 bucks, you buy it? Where do you see it going?

[00:10:43]>> Well, the one I'm most focused on is silver cuz I think silver could go absolutely parabolic.

[00:10:48]>> And the crisis you're talking about is you're talking about the federal debt, $40 trillion worth, and at some point this is is going to catch up to us. And it'll shake enough other assets that people have been comfortable with because the Fed's been printing the money and making money free for 10 to 15 years. You know, you look at a Fed a Fed funds chart, go back 75 years, you can get it from St. Louis Fed, and you've either been at zero or you got up to all of 5% or so and then back down to zero and then back up to five. But if you look at that 15, 16 year history since 2009 and compare it to the other 75 years, it's a joke. [music] It's like off the page cheap. Money has been made artificially cheap for a decade and a half plus and therefore [music] the liquidity flow went somewhere. It happened to go in the stocks, but as soon as the investment public and asset managers realized, uh-oh, it's not working anymore for stocks, it's working over there in the price of commodities or the price of gold and silver, I'm going to shift my money over there. And so, when the stock market wobbles, that will be a further fuel one for the Fed cuz it'll create some data points for them, but for fuel of money moving that the Fed prints into the monetary metals where it's protected. And I think that's why you got to watch the bonds because they could impact the stocks. If they impact the stocks like we think, by this summer you'll realize, oh yes, the money's flowing from stock to gold and monetary metal. And I always think it's a good idea to quantify when you talk about money printing, [clears throat] just to throw out some numbers so we can put it into perspective. But in January of 2020, the money supply as measured by M2 was at 15.4 trillion. Now it's over 22 trillion, so that's an an increase of well over 40%. And they just keep printing money and that's what's happening here. So, you mentioned you're very bullish on silver, more so than gold. Yeah. The last time we spoke it's also up three to 4% on the year. It's been very choppy. And just this week alone it got as high as 90 bucks and the last time I looked it was at 75 bucks.

[00:12:45]Mhm. So, it's come under pressure here in the last day or two, but um the last time we spoke early February, you said your target on silver was 300 to 500 bucks Still? in the summer. Yep. And the reason was you said it had to do with a number of fundamental and technical reasons.

[00:13:04]>> Mhm. A whole bunch. create a re-acceleration in this price movement.

[00:13:08]So, maybe you can just speak to that and where you think silver's going. Yeah, before we you mentioned year-to-date in the stock market and gold for example, but if you go back a year to date, May 15th last year, silver I did did the math before we came on, 137% up. So, gold, 40% up. Now once silver starts leading gold, the entire market psychology changes because for years silver was the metal people mocked. Gold had respect. Gold had central banks.

[00:13:35]Gold had history. Gold had the serious money image. Silver had the reputation of being the wild cousin who shows up late, makes a mess, [music] and somehow becomes the most interesting person in the room. But in major monetary metals bull markets, that is exactly how silver behaves. It disappoints for a long time, then suddenly starts moving faster than gold. And once that leadership becomes clear, it can signal that the bull market is entering a much more aggressive phase. Michael Oliver's point is that silver is not just catching up in price, it is catching up in structure. The old market was defined by the $4 to $50 range.

[00:14:10]>> [music] >> That range trained investors to think small. Every time silver moved near the upper end of that range, people assumed it had gone too far. Every time it corrected, they said, "See, silver always fails." But that [music] is exactly why a breakout from such a long range can become so powerful. The longer a market is trapped, [music] the more energy builds inside the pattern. When the breakout finally happens, the move can feel irrational to anyone still using the old range as their mental anchor. This is why Oliver does not treat $90 silver as the final destination. To many investors, $90 already sounds high because they remember silver at $20 or $25. But if silver is escaping a 50-year range, then $90 may not be the end of the move. It may simply be the early stage of the new reality. That is a difficult idea to accept [music] because humans are anchored to the past. We think yesterday's price is normal and tomorrow's price is extreme. But markets do not care what feels normal. They care about structure, pressure, momentum, and the point where buyers overwhelm the old supply zone. That is why repeated attempts near the same resistance area can be bullish. A market that returns to resistance again and again is not always failing. Sometimes it is testing the wall. If each sell-off gets absorbed, if the long-term momentum remains intact, and if price keeps pushing back toward the ceiling, that ceiling becomes weaker. Think of it like knocking on an old wooden door. The first knock does nothing. The second knock shakes it. The third knock loosens the hinges. Then suddenly the whole thing breaks open, and everyone [music] says, "How did that happen?" But the pressure had been building the whole time. Oliver's momentum work suggests that the recent correction >> [music] >> has not broken the major trend. It has created intermediate damage, yes, but not long-term damage. That distinction is everything. Intermediate damage can mean weeks or months of frustration. It can mean volatility, fake breakdowns, scary headlines, and traders losing confidence. Long-term damage is different. Long-term damage means the bull market structure is actually broken. Oliver's argument is that this has not happened. The market has shaken people out, but it has not destroyed the bigger setup. The March bear trap is central to this view. Silver broke below the February low, triggered stops, frightened traders, and then reversed quickly. That kind of move is painful for anyone trading with obvious stop levels. The market knows where people are hiding. It knows where the weak hands are. It breaks the level, collects the stops, creates maximum emotional damage, and then moves back into the range. It is not personal, although it certainly feels personal when it happens. Silver is especially good at this because it is thin, volatile, and emotional. But a bear trap can also be very bullish. It means the market tested lower prices and rejected them. It means sellers had their chance and could not hold the breakdown. It means the people who sold the break may now have to buy back higher. If silver moves back toward the highs and begins pressing through resistance, the traders who were shaken out may become fuel for the next move.

[00:17:03]That is how acceleration begins. First the weak hands sell, then the market reverses, then the late shorts cover, then momentum traders reenter, then the public notices. By the time everyone feels comfortable, the price has already moved. This is why Oliver's timing window matters. He is not saying silver will calmly rise for 10 years in a straight line. He is talking about the possibility of a major acceleration phase over months. A move from the current range toward much higher levels would shock people because most investors still think in old silver terms. They do not understand what happens when a market leaves a multi-decade price prison. They think the first breakout is the move. Often, the first breakout is only the warning.

[00:17:42]The real violence comes after the consolidation. Copper gives us the comparison, >> [music] >> but silver may have more explosive potential. Copper broke out of its old range and created a new price reality.

[00:17:53]That was not just a random rally. It was a revaluation.

[00:17:57]Oliver believes silver may now be doing something similar, but with a much larger monetary component. Copper is industrial. Silver is industrial and monetary.

[00:18:07]>> [music] >> That gives it two engines. If the commodity complex is rising because of inflation, currency weakness, supply constraints, and real asset demand, silver benefits.

[00:18:18]If monetary demand rises because people lose confidence in paper currencies, silver benefits again.

[00:18:24]This dual identity is what makes silver so difficult to value using normal models.

[00:18:29]If you treat silver only as an industrial metal, you miss the monetary premium.

[00:18:34]If you treat it only as a precious metal, you miss the industrial supply pressure. If you compare it only to its own past price, you miss its relationship to gold in the broader commodity complex.

[00:18:46]Oliver's argument combines these layers.

[00:18:49]Silver is cheap relative to gold.

[00:18:51]Silver has broken out of a long range.

[00:18:54]Silver's momentum remains strong.

[00:18:57]Silver is leading gold.

[00:18:59]Silver has industrial demand.

[00:19:01]Silver has monetary history. Put all of that together, and the case becomes much larger than a simple chart trade.

[00:19:09]The gold-silver ratio is especially important [music] because it shows how far silver may still have to run. In previous major peaks, silver reached a much higher percentage of gold's value than it has today. If silver merely returns to past relative levels, the price could rise dramatically. And if this cycle is more extreme because of currency debasement, debt stress, industrial demand, and supply limitations, then the move could overshoot past historical ratios.

[00:19:39]That is how markets behave when they reprice.

[00:19:42]They do not stop exactly where the spreadsheet says they should. They run until enough supply appears or enough demand is exhausted. Stay informed about the latest developments shaping the precious metals markets with regular updates from the Finance Daily team. Not only that, but as a subscriber, you'll also receive timely silver and gold price notifications and early access to groundbreaking news unavailable to the general public. Join our free gold and silver newsletter today. Link in the description.