Did Bitcoin trap all the bears?

Añadido: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hello my fellow cobras. Welcome back to yet another video. Before we jump into the video, I want to quickly let you know guys know I've gotten a lot of complaints regarding the audio. So if somebody's an OBS expert, please join the Discord and ping me there. And let's see if any of you can help me out because I haven't managed to figure it out. And I get some people say the audio is good. Others say that they can only hear me from the right ear. So I apologize for that. Then apart from that, let's jump straight into the analysis here. We're getting some interesting price action here since yesterday. Yesterday we did not make a video, but today I'm out here because we have the weekend coming up and I'm going to share with you a few things I'm looking at for next week. Currently, Bitcoin here on the weekly chart is back below the macro 0.31. So, you guys remember we're talking about the 0.31 here. And as I've been saying the entire week, this is very very typical. We we spoke about how strong prices, how we broke the 0.31 here on the daily time frame and on the 4hour time frame. But I said watch the algorithms towards the end of the week. they're going to try to dump the price below the 0.31 and we have seen this pattern happening before.

[00:01:03]So for example uh back here uh from the again take from the all-time highs and then to the recent low. So back here in when was this in January we had very similar price action where price came up to the 0.31 we violated it but then just a few minutes before the weekly candle closed we closed below it the 0.31 and then we had a big dump. Once again guys, I'm not saying we're going to get a big dump here. I actually think this time is different and I think right now market looks a bit different. But what I'm saying here is you don't want to underestimate this macro 0.31s here. And another thing why I also think we're not going to see another massive dump is we cannot forever keep rejecting from the 0.31s because if that was the case, if the 0.31 was a magic fib that was never being able to to break, Bitcoin would just trend down like this forever on the same way to the upside. So let's say we always reject from the 0.31. So we all are adults here and we all have a brain and we all understand that markets don't trend like that and that sooner or later the 0.31 is going to get broken. So what I think here I do think that probably Bitcoin has higher to go here. But of course we're going to break it down in today's video. But what I'm thinking here, if we get a weekly candle close below 8 80,600, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see another pullback here next week and we see another red weekly candle develop next week. But pay attention to the weekly candle close. We still have Saturday and Sunday ahead of us. So, a lot of things can change, but my guess is that we're going to close bearish here, the weekly candle. Moving on to the 8 hour time frame. This was our 8 hour time frame chart. This is a pitchfork that we have been using here for Bitcoin. We've been using the the lowest low, the highest high and then the the highest the higher low here. So basically you go from the lowest low, the highest high you can see on the chart and then the recent low here. So we use three pivots here just according to the pitchfork rules and this median line is something as I spoke to you guys I I recommend everybody to have this pitchfork on their chart because this median line has been very accurate with predicting the price. So once price comes towards this median line here, you know that the market is most likely overbought and we are going to expect a pullback. And that's what we discussed in our the latest video when we're just making the high here at almost at 83K.

[00:03:18]And I said most likely or it looks like to me a fifth wave is being is being put in here on the short time frame. So I do think right now it looks like to me we're putting some kind of ABC. This probably going to correlate with the the resistance as we just spoke about here on the weekly chart. So, if we get a pullback here, it's probably going to form this ABC here. And that's where I'm looking to basically start flipping long here if we can get a pullback here. And I'm of course open to more bearish retest as well to get lower here. But the reason why I don't think currently that Bitcoin is going much lower than 70K is mainly because we've been looking at the open interest. So, I I shared a tweet here yesterday. I basically spoke about here. I said it's very difficult to be bearish here. open interests keep coming down very fast with every red candle Bitcoin makes. It's like leverage is getting wiped with every minor pullback. And if you pull up here the the sorry the open interest here this what we've been discussing for I I believe over a month now. We saw this happening already down here when Bitcoin started trending towards the upside. We saw the open interest was also coming higher but with every minor pullback we saw the open interest was correcting here very quickly. So this entire move up was quite organic in my opinion and quite healthy. And even lately here we spoke about this massive spike we had recently in the open interest when Bitcoin went all the way up to 82 how high did we go I think 82.9K it depends on the exchange but almost to 83k and we had a huge spike in the open interest. A lot of leverage was entering the market which of course massive mass massively increases the downside risk. But we see once again Bitcoin is slightly pulling back here and open interest is coming down really really fast. And even today Bitcoin is slightly pumping here. Open interest is still making lower lows here. So this just shows that the the leverage is is really sensitive here to the market. It seems like to me this is not what you see typically in a bull market in a late bull market stages and that's where you get this very violent move towards the downside. At the moment if we continue to see this trend here I don't think Bitcoin is going to go much lower. Let's say we put the C wave here and Bitcoin goes to around 75K. I think open interest is going to probably come going to come to around 24 billion or something like that and almost back inside this massive range. So this is just something that uh I've been talking about for the past almost two months now. At least over a month we've been discussing this. I believe two months actually. And since then we can see the market has been pretty strong in an uptrend. So be pretty spot on with just tracking the open interest and telling you guys when it's been uh spiking. I said be careful. But look at how quickly it retraces. Once again I said here at the top I said be careful. It is spiking. But I'm seeing the open interest coming quickly down. And this makes me slightly bearish here on the very shorter time frame. But on on the larger time frame, I think the open interest and Bitcoin have much more room towards the upside. So that's why I'm thinking that Bitcoin is probably going to put in some kind of ABC here. Uh let me pull up the ABC here. We can map it out on the chart here. So maybe we're putting in some kind of ABC. I mean, I you always don't know exactly how these corrective uh waves are going to play out, but basically either we get some more chop here, some more chop before higher, or maybe a bit of a deeper pullback before higher. And the levels I'm looking at here, you can see them here on the chart. We have the the two resistance zones above us. We have very two juicy supply zones. The recent supply zones had a nice correlation with the median line. That's the reason why we rejected. And what I'll be looking at here is maybe Bitcoin is putting in a larger third wave here. So maybe we're doing something like this. This is again guys just speculation. I'm not the the biggest expert here on Eliot wave or anything like that. But this is something that could be de developing right now and then we'll put another fifth wave here towards maybe 90K which I'm also going to share with you guys.

[00:07:10]So that's kind of the the current outlook I'm having on Bitcoin here. What I'm looking at here is using from the first wave towards the highs here. So this is kind of the first target I'm looking at here on Bitcoin where I would like to long around 76.8K.

[00:07:24]Then of course you can also draw the Fibonacci from the larger third wave uh larger uh sorry the lower lowest low here the yearly lows here. Sorry guys my my head is not working today. And this gives us also even a lower target of around 75K.

[00:07:40]Personally I think 75K is pretty low. I don't know if Bitcoin can go there, but these are two major levels that you would be looking at if Bitcoin is putting in a larger fourth wave here.

[00:07:50]And we can see even if the fourth wave goes all the way down to 75K, it's not going to violate the first wave here.

[00:07:56]So, this to me makes a lot of sense if in fact the fifth wave is in here. So, Bitcoin is probably going to bottom at 76K or 75K. This is what it looks like to me at the moment. Of course, the the third scenario is that we just continue to trend higher without any major pullback. But I do think that some kind of pullback here to at least 76K, 76.8K is highly likely here. And that's an excellent area where I'm looking to to play some longs here and looking to catch the fourth wave here before then we make another fifth wave and probably going to go into this larger uh supply zone above us which is sitting right below 90K. So that's kind of my outlook at the moment. This is not me saying, "Oh, jump into shorts here. market's going to crash. But I'm saying play it safe here and look I rather personally look here to lows to catch to start buying and playing the next move higher.

[00:08:43]And I believe Bitcoin is another move higher. And then we can start talking about perhaps a larger correction here for Bitcoin. And this also comes to mind this also correlates with this uh pitchfork here that we discussed a couple of uh actually I think in our latest video. Let's go here on the daily time frame. So this target also aligns with the 90k target here that we are basically perhaps in a one two three four and we're waiting for another fifth wave which going to take us to 90k. Now you can see here the 90k target has a beautiful correlation here really really juicy supply zone here. You can see here a lot of multiple days going sideways here before a massive impulsive move towards the downside. So I can guarantee you guys almost that this is going to be a super super strong uh resistance zone here. Bitcoin is not going to break through this resistance easily and then despite this resistance I mean on top of the resistance we have this shift pitchfork that we moved we pulled from the August lows here and these are our major lows that's the reason why I'm using these lows here I got some questions why I'm not using the complete bare market lows you can use these lows as well but this is something I would use later on if Bitcoin can prove itself to be really bullish and then we can find some higher resistances but as of for now this is really amazing major low here. You can also see the massive wick here. So, there's nothing wrong with using the pitchfork from this low here.

[00:10:06]And this actually will be easier. I would actually recommend you use this low even though let's say you're very bullish on Bitcoin because you want to catch the resistances ahead of time. You don't want to be stuck waiting for this pitchfork here and let's say Bitcoin goes up to 90K and then rejects and then you miss out on taking profits or miss out on a great shorting opportunity. So always pay attention to this macro lows and tops here. This bitchfork is very valid for now and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see Bitcoin moving towards 90k in the upcoming months here. But short time frame I still expect some kind of pullback here happening. So I'm pretty sure I laid out my views quite clearly here. For more quick updates here, I mean if you want daily updates here and when we get some quick price action moves, make sure you guys are either in the Telegram or the Discord. Both links can be found down below. Telegram is completely free to join. Discord is also free to join. If you want to enter the Discord VIP section, there is a payw wall and then you also get access to my trades where I trade altcoins as well, Bitcoin and Ethereum and so on. So that's just to to make it all clear here. All the thing all the information you can find find down below uh in the uh in the description. Stock market as well, we're going to cover Ethereum in a second.

[00:11:23]stock market as well is just going really really crazy here. I think we're going to start covering the stock market daily here because it's just bringing new record highs day by day here. We're getting really really close to this pitchfork which is really exciting for me in a way because I've been tracking this pitchfork. I believe I think since 2019 I can't really remember guys but at least in 20120 I've been tracking this median line here and it every day every time it seemed like uh we did never wanted to get to the median line but right now it looks like we're in the final stages here for the stock market before we really going to basically correct this entire Ponzi scheme and I mean this is not a small pitchfork. I mean this is a monthly time frame. It starts all the way from 1974 here. So you can pretty much be sure that the correction we're going to see here is going to be historical for the S&P 500.

[00:12:13]Zooming into zooming into the the weekly time frame here. Let me just make sure because sometimes when you switch time frames on Trading View, the pitchfork readjust itself a bit just because Trading View can be a bit laggy sometimes. So you want to make sure you have the the correct highs and lows here attached properly. So on the weekly time frame, zooming in here, we're not that far away from the median line at the moment. I mean, we're just a few percent away. We're currently around four, maybe 5%, 6% depending. Let's say we hit it by December. It's around 9% away, but I think probably we could even hit this by summer. This is I mean me just speculating, but we're getting super close to the media line here. And I mean, it's almost scary. I mean, I'm getting nervous just seeing this because I know we're going to see a massive re reaction from there and then we're going to probably correct quite strongly here.

[00:13:02]So, I would suggest that you all are paying attention to this. Another thing uh another update here once again on the 0.31 because some people asked me to share this chart again. I mean, if you guys are following me on X and are following this channel, I mean, we caught the we we announced the bottom here once and we freaking nailed it. So we can see here this was a daily time frame from the lows to the recent highs.

[00:13:24]I mean the 0.31 you can see once again why I love the 0.31 so much. We can see here live again how algorithms basically bought the lows here as we spoke. I said do you want to see how the 0.31 will work on a $55 trillion asset. We announced this one or two days before we hit the 0.31 and since then we're currently up from the 0.31 like 16%. So this has definitely be one one of my best trades this year. I haven't sold yet, so I'm still holding until we hit the median line. H absolutely insanity.

[00:13:55]I mean, this looks like a meme coin almost. I mean, you can see how rigged the markets are here. I mean, this is not a coincidence. I don't care what anybody says. I mean, we announce this ahead of time, and that's the reason why I do announce these things ahead of time so people can see that this is not me coming and adjusting the 0.31 to fit my bias, etc., etc. I mean, you can check my my X here. We had the chart up there.

[00:14:17]So, very interesting times coming ahead of us. Uh we also have some nice correlation as well with a minus 0.236 fib here currently sitting at 7,500 and then we have the macro uh target sitting at around 7,700 7 I mean it depends when we hit 7,600 and what did I say the other target was 7,500.

[00:14:42]So somewhere there it's going to find some resistance pretty soon but I'll keep you guys updated. This going to be the first resistance coming up. 7,525 is probably the next where I might start putting some profits because algorithms they like to buy the 0.31 and they like to take profits at the minus 0.236.

[00:15:01]We're probably going to see a re reaction from there uh once we get there. Moving on to Ethereum here.

[00:15:07]Ethereum also very interesting. I posted an update yesterday in Telegram regarding Ethereum. I believe Ethereum is putting in a quite similar move to Bitcoin here. Ethereum price action has been very boring to trade but absolutely beautiful almost even more beautiful than Bitcoin I I would argue here because we are still below the micro 0.31 here you can see it very clearly on the daily time frame all the the wicks we have gotten here we got one two three four five touches of the 0.31 very easy short we called this short as well in the Discord just the day before we're right up there right now Ethereum is rejecting and once again keep in mind there's an empty volume gap right above or the ceiling. So once this resistance breaks guys, I'll you'll see what I mean. Once we see the resistance breaks, you're going to see a very impulsive move here. There's an empty volume gap.

[00:15:56]There's not much resistance on Ethereum and very quickly it's going to fly up to 2,800.

[00:16:02]So I'm guessing right now Ethereum is maybe putting in a 1 2 3 4 like to go sideways. So let's see. I would like to get one more low here. I would like to see Ethereum sweep the lows here of this range to to basically liquidate the longs before then we can run higher. And this would also we can remove this one here.

[00:16:21]This would also correlate pulling from the first wave to the fourth wave here.

[00:16:25]So if you come on the uh logarithmic chart I mean on the normal chart we're already hit the 0.31 but on the logarithmic chart we didn't quite hit the 0.31. So this would really be a perfect setup for Ethereum to come down here, make another low here, hit the 0.31. The target is currently sitting at 2213, finish the fourth wave and then perhaps coming towards the resistance and then we can pop towards the upside. So this is what I'm looking at. Once again, I'm not calling this. I'm not saying, oh, I believe Ethereum is going to go much much higher. What I'm saying here, we're setting seeing a very clear setup here forming ahead of us. And it looks like to me a fork pivot is putting put is being put in here and I will gladly try to long this move towards the upside. So very interesting times ahead of us still below I mean something before we end the video here because we just we had this all this bullish talk and so on. Keep in mind both Ethereum is below the micro0.31 and Bitcoin is also below the micro 0.31. So just keep that in mind here. Uh where did my chart go? So we can see here both are still below the macro 0.31. both bitcoin here and ethereum. So keep that in mind guys that be cautious here probably some small time frame pullback but overall the market looks healthy here with the open interest uh getting rejected here nicely the liquidation heat map as well we have some liquidity here below us nothing too major so that's why I would like to see a bit of a pullback here reset again before the next leg higher thanks so much guys for following uh this channel please consider subscribing please consider leaving a like and a comment and I'll see you most likely on Sunday and we'll do another markets look ahead once we get the weekly candle close.

[00:18:06]Thanks so much, guys. Have a great weekend. Bye-bye.

[00:18:11]>> Yeah, you come for the king, then you best not miss. Only fools try to counter trade the Cobra's hips. Going long from the bottom, short from the top with medium precision. He just don't stop. Going long from downtown from the 031. Target smash TP out and the Cobra's done. Snake and bake. Snake and bake. King cobra.

[00:18:34]Snake and bake. Snake and bake. King cobra. Cobra.

[00:18:40]King Cobra.