Altcoin Resistance Final Boss

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:10]Hello everyone, my name is T. Let's talk crypto. This is where you subscribe for daily Bitcoin updates and technical analysis. We track the price of Bitcoin as a proxy for the cryptocurrency markets at large. Today is May 5th, 2026 and we've broken out. This is officially the slowest breakout I've ever tracked. And it's so slow people may not even know we've broken out. Uh we're going to look at why we've technically broken out. All coins have technically broken out. And over this past weekend when we were adamant about getting a move or our entire you know thesis for you know the market bitcoin altcoins collapsing we did indeed get the beginning of the move and now what is it it's Tuesday now Tuesday we are in continuation of that move, which is extremely important. You always want followthrough. So, we're going to look at all that. I'm going to try to be quick because again, this is an extremely busy week at week for me. Uh, and so I'm just happy to be able to make even a short update. So, we're going to keep it brief. Uh, so we're going to look at Bitcoin. We're going to look at altcoins. We're going to look at Bitcoin dominance. If all that sounds interesting to you, then watch until the very end. I hope everyone's having a great day. Let's get into it. All right, let's start with Bitcoin. We said that Bitcoin was likely going to hit 80K. All right, a target of 80K given that 80K represents the top resistance of this multimonth channel that we've been in since the 5th of February. You could see here this channel now represents 88 plus days of price action, right? And the channel I'm referring to is obviously this one, right? So, we're at the top of the channel. The top of the channel represents the brunt of 88 days of resistance. And so, we expect to come up here and then turn down. And the the entire thesis was that if altcoins do not move before that happens, then I don't know anything about what's going on in these markets.

[00:02:45]All my reads on the high time frame, small time frame, they don't make sense.

[00:02:49]Okay, that was my overall thesis. This is something I've been repeating for a long time. Um, [music] and while the moves aren't finished in the altcoin space, they're um, undoubtedly they're undoubtedly they've undoubtedly begun.

[00:03:09]Okay, and this is very important. Um, so anyway, Bitcoin on the 4hourly time frame, we're almost at the target right here. We're above 81. I said 80k just cuz that's a nice round number. It's a psychological uh you know resistance I guess 80k but to be honest the the more technical resistance is wherever this line meets the price. [music] So it obviously rises over time and right now we're just a few dollars shy of it. You would say it's like 823 on this chart, but somewhere around there should be our ultimate resistance. And Bitcoin, like I said in the past two, three videos, if you're serious tra if you're a serious trader, serious analyst, you're looking at Bitcoin, this should be your assessment. I mean, very, very simply, you are at resistance. You've been at resistance.

[00:04:16]You do not expect Bitcoin to do anything more than a chop in this region. But then the next big move for Bitcoin is down. And that target to the downsizes is between 55 and 60K. That's the serious read on [music] Bitcoin. Okay?

[00:04:34]If you're a serious analyst, serious trader, you're not necessarily concerned with trying to long 81,000 or 80,000 to the ultimate resistance of 823 or something like that. Like you are at um practical resistance here, right?

[00:04:54]Because you're at the ultimate uh top of the channel. That's it. So, I'm expecting Bitcoin to continue to hover here briefly, not too long. Um, and then, you know, start to turn down.

[00:05:12]Technically speaking, when we talk about uh the requisite moves needed for a reversal, we look at AB theory, you know, Ralph Nelson Elliot's ABS theory.

[00:05:22]I counted this as my initial break, my initial counter, my secondary break. I counted this as my secondary counter.

[00:05:32]Uh I could maybe count this as my secondary counter finished up here. And then my tur my my pivot is probably this. Okay, I'm in my pivot. I think this is already in the pivot. These are the final stages of reversal. Okay, don't let it catch you unawares.

[00:05:53]This is very important.

[00:05:56]Anybody reading these charts should [snorts] not be confused or um should not be surprised when Bitcoin ultimately says, "Okay, I've had enough.

[00:06:09]I'm reversing course." Okay? Because you've gone through a reversal process that started on the 17th of April. You know, if you're reading this chart, it's likely, I'm not saying for sure, but it's very likely that that reversal process began on the 17th and a of April. And this is how price action works. Although the reversal to the downside started on the 17th and a of April, we've still made some higher highs.

[00:06:42]That's just how it works. Um, you know, if you're longing here or you were longing here, you're surprised as to why it keeps going up and down and up and down. It's not going in a straight direction. It's because all of this is likely a distribution channel, okay? And that distribution channel resolves with a downside move.

[00:07:05]Okay? Now, it is nerve-wracking to consider Bitcoin's current position being in the final stages of reversal.

[00:07:15]Uh, while altcoins are just now starting to break out. Okay, now let's look at that. Like we say breakout, it's a term, you know, used all the time. Is it really a breakout? What does that mean?

[00:07:32]All right. So the breakout in question is the idea that first over the weekend we started moving up right. So weekend we we start weekend price action we're sideways. We go up we come down. We continue the move. We come down. We keep testing previous resistance as new support and we break out from that. Why is it a breakout? Very technically speaking, because we're not in some sort of range here, right? This right here, all that you see here is not some sort of up into the right range.

[00:08:21]This right here is an impulse. unto itself and that impulse has continued to make higher highs and higher lows. It is a breakout because it's very clear that any idea that this is a up and to the right consolidation has been invalidated. It's too vertical. It's too directional.

[00:08:51]Okay.

[00:08:52]So that is very very very compelling for the breakout theory or for the breakout thesis. And remember where it started. It started from the midline of this multimonth channel.

[00:09:10]Bounce off the midline. Midline was support. I talked about that a few episodes ago. I said altcoins and Bitcoin are on support. Do expect a move up from here. And that's exactly what we got. Okay. and the weekend. While it wasn't um I it wasn't uh really explosive in its price action, what it gives us is very clean and clear higher highs and higher lows, which is exactly what you want to see. Opening the week, we continue the trend. This is a trend and it's not necessarily stopping until it reaches its goal. Right now, as I record this trend is budding up against resistance, the resistance of this channel, right?

[00:10:00]You can see this blue channel right here. So, this is 90 almost 90-day resistance that bit uh that altcoins are in. If people don't know, I'm I'm looking at the other chart. The other chart is what I use um to look at altcoins. Um it's an analog for altcoin uh price action. It's basically all the altcoins minus the top 10 in market cap normalized average down. [music] That's this chart. Okay. And so it's representative in to a large extent of what you're seeing in the altcoin market which is a breakout. Okay. And it's very clearly not just a sideways thing. Now, although we're at resistance, if it's truly a breakout, what you do is you break resistances.

[00:10:46]You break resistances. You break resistances. You break resistances. And this is actually the main resistance that has to be broken. Obviously, being down here in the channel, you're going to experience a lot of resistance by virtue of the fact that you're inside of a a a consolidation channel. But the ultimate resistance is the top of the channel, and this is what we're currently dealing with. So, what that should translate to when you're looking at your individual altcoins, and by the way, for those of you who don't know, I do not look at individual altcoins on the YouTube. I reserve that for my paid clients in crypto portfolio mentorship and consultation service as well as in single asset analysis. Details of all of those services that I offer are in the description below.

[00:11:36]What you should see in the individual altcoins that you're trading is your altcoins being at important resistance, a high time frame resistance, meaning many month resistance that if they do break, then they can fly. Because between this right here where we're at on the others chart and our ultimate target which is up towards the midline of this larger channel there is absolutely nothing.

[00:12:12]Okay. So, I talked about how it's quite um encouraging looking at this trend and concluding that we're in in we're indeed in a trend and we're not in a sideways up and to the right. We're not in some side to side consolidations. We're finally trending at least on the small time frame.

[00:12:39]And then if you take that and you look at this trend, you can see it's very likely breaking this single resistance which has been tested once, twice, three times prior, right? This would be the fourth time. And in technical analysis, we tend to see that three times or you know things are typically tested thrice before finally being broken. It's very likely that we finally break that and hit our target. Now, it took us quite a long time. I talked about this being the slowest breakout of all time and you couldn't even notice it. And it's true.

[00:13:20]If you look at a lot of these altcoins, you could hardly perceive a breakout.

[00:13:25]Some of them, yeah, but others it's like I don't know what you're talking about.

[00:13:29]You can see it on the other chart. You can see it in certain altcoins. But where you really see it, and where it's unmistakable is here. Once this resistance breaks, it's clear across the board throughout the cryptocurrency market. And it's so tricky because in your mind, you're expecting, oh, that move, it's like a 50% move. It's going to be fast and furious. It's just going to happen. It's going to be quick, right? We We've spent 90 days in consolidation. Why wouldn't it be quick?

[00:14:01]Well, the start is always slow.

[00:14:04]The start is always slow. Think of it like a lawn mower getting started. Um or a high performance race car getting started. You know, you have to rev the engines. That's pretty much what you see here. You're seeing an impulse, but an impulse that did a lot of chopping up and to the right before flying. You tend to see that. And now this is when we fly. And it's the 11th hour truly because as you could see on the Bitcoin chart, we are pretty much at the end towards the edge of resistance in that 88 day channel. So, I'm expecting this move to pop and for it not to take long, maybe less than an hour, less than a 4 hour um candle, you hit the target and then you immediately start to descend along with Bitcoin. So, that is the tricky bit. It's extremely tricky because you know as traders you don't know are is it safe to get in? Is it not safe to get in? Is this like already resistance?

[00:15:18]I don't like what Bitcoin's doing. It's you're never looking at this looking at this market, looking at the altcoin market, looking at the Bitcoin market.

[00:15:28]What other than the fact that Bitcoin's at resistance, where do you have confidence to say altcoins are going to do this, altcoins are going to go up now, all you know, this is going to be a pump. This is why they call it the disbelief rally. All right? It's absolute disbelief. And when it happens, people are still probably not going to believe it because on a lot of altcoins, this is not going to be bullish. It's just going to be a move up followed by a larger move down. But in other altcoins, this is going to truly be the beginning of their bull run. All right, so that's the others chart. And last but not least, we're looking at the Bitcoin dominance chart. This is continue to go up, but again, on the higher time frames, our larger thesis is still valid. Our larger thesis is that all of this is a corrective uptrend and it's a response to this.

[00:16:25]Okay. So, you're looking at this break, this counter, and now a turn. Okay. And we're just waiting for that turn. We're well within the uh norms of a counter, right? Break three-wave counter. We're looking for a turn. Okay, on the smaller time frames, you can see some red, but you don't know. I think when this comes, it just comes in one fell swoop. It's looking toppy, though. It is looking toppy. It was looking toppy to me here, but it's looking toppy. And again, just go and use your indicators if you're not comfortable reading the the price action. My stoastic RSI momentum indicator on the weekly time frame is pretty much crossed bearish at the top.

[00:17:14]So it's exhausted right on the daily time frame I'm showing bearish divergence confirmed bearish divergence. I got this top. This is a higher top. This is representing that top. That's a lower top. Confir confirmed bearish divergence on the daily time frame. Right? So, it's a lot of indications that at any point in time, Bitcoin dominance can fall precipitously, and that's exactly what we're expecting to see as altcoins pop and Bitcoin pretty much stay stagnant as it's already at resistance, right?

[00:17:51]That's my analysis. Hope this was helpful, useful, like, share, and subscribe. If you got value, consider joining my crypto portfolio mentorship and consultation service. That's my full service offering. Uh you can trade directly with me up to five different assets. I have 24/7 access to me and my opinions. Um and um we do a you know every month we do 2hour uh sessions one- on-one over video call to you know discuss whatever concerns you may have and you know your positions and strategies and all that stuff. So that's crypto portfolio mentorship and consultation details are in the description. Also I have single asset analysis. It is just you know if you need my opinion, my views on one asset, one indicator, one commodity. Um and that's pre-recorded and I I'll have that to you within 24 hours time. That single asset analysis details for how to order that are in the description below as well. Last but not least, I'm currently working with three exchange partners, Weeks, KCEX, and FEMX. They are all good highquality exchanges but they're primarily leverage trading exchanges meaning they're places where people you know trade future contract futures contract they facilitate the trading of futures contracts you know and it's very very risky can be very lucrative but if you don't know what you're doing please don't look at it please don't touch it um but basically um I have referral um links to each and every one of those exchanges and in those referral links my partners will give you bonuses like you know free money uh you know perks whatever just for signing up and using [music] their exchange. Understand the business model.

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[00:20:11]I'll catch you later.

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