FIRST TIME SINCE 2019 SIGNAL FLASHING!? DOGECOIN AND BITCOIN FINAL BEAR MARKET CRASH COMING IN 2026?

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Good morning to the viewers around the globe. Welcome to another blockchain debriefing.

[00:00:08]And we begin with our liquidation map as you can just go back and check. It feels like every video I say there's a lot of money at this area and we shoot right to it.

[00:00:22]Right? Yesterday there was a decent amount of money.

[00:00:26]Uh let me just double check.

[00:00:29]Where did we hit overnight?

[00:00:31]Oh my goodness, we just spiked up to 78K in literally 30 minutes. And that's I'm pretty sure we had a decent amount of money just yesterday at around 78K.

[00:00:44]And you can see 78.4 is where there's $2 billion. So, we cannot rule out 78,400.

[00:00:54]It is very much so on the table. But you can see after that it does kind of dissipate. Not so much the total leverage, but I would argue the degeneracy, if you will. You can see on Bybit if you look at this little blue Oh, you can't see my cursor, but if you see right here it says Bybit. Looks like everybody's shorting on Bybit from 78.4.

[00:01:18]So, hitting that price will take out a lot of people. But nevertheless, again as I say in every video, I do think we're in a bear market. So, at some point in time we will come down to these lower prices and essentially liquidate all of this money, but the question is do we come up to 78.4? It's very likely. It's very possible. Doesn't have to happen. But as we mentioned, I mean it's worth pointing out that 76,000 is interesting as well. So, a flash crash to 76,000 is very much on the table, but nevertheless, today we're getting a very, very big signal.

[00:01:56]You can see that the S&P 500 did just make another high.

[00:02:01]And more importantly, the semiconductors are just going ballistic right now. The semiconductors are having their own old season, as somebody pointed out. As someone said in the stream, call it old season for semiconductors.

[00:02:14]We're having an old season for semiconductors, and the fact that Bitcoin is just struggling right now.

[00:02:21]I I do still think there's a chance Bitcoin could push a little bit higher, but if I just show you this simple chart, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. Bitcoin divided by spy is starting to break down. Bitcoin divided by QQQ is about to break the low.

[00:02:40]I think there's a chance we get a little bit of a spike. It doesn't have to happen.

[00:02:45]But the point I'm trying to make here is the S&P is going vertical. The semiconductors are going vertical.

[00:02:53]And Bitcoin is not moving. Ethereum is at the same exact spot as it was in February.

[00:02:59]To me, this is the clear indication that we were looking for to confirm that it is still a bear market.

[00:03:05]But we do have to respect the short-term bullish momentum. You can see the daily stock RSI is starting to curl to the upside. The last three times this has happened, we have actually seen rallies to the upside.

[00:03:23]Could we still get that rally? I think we have to respect the probability because the last three times we were in this spot, it has happened. And I think the higher Bitcoin, or excuse me, the higher the stock market goes with the semiconductors, the more probable it becomes that Bitcoin can have a rally, but as we head into that summer area, there's a very good chance that Bitcoin remaining where we are now or lower will finally trigger the final move down to the bear market. I think we're missing the final capitulation to the bear market. And the reason why I say the same thing every day is because the momentum that we're getting right now is the actual momentum that will send us down there. You can see the 10-day stock RSI is overbought.

[00:04:20]This is exactly what the market needs in order to go down, right? If you just look the last four times in the last 2 years on top of that the big 30% crashes have come from the 10-day stock RSI being overbought, and that's exactly where it is right now.

[00:04:42]And the fact that we're not budging I think heading into the summer or not heading into the summer, sorry, coming out of the summer, or like second half that should be where the crash is because the momentum is max bullish right now, and every 10 days that passes that we don't do anything, the market will start to display signs of weakness, and I think we're seeing the very first sign of weakness right now because Bitcoin is not moving but the semiconductors are. You might be asking, why am I talking about the semiconductors?

[00:05:17]That's because every single time that the semiconductors have gone up without Bitcoin it was a bear market or there was a major crash. I said this this is going to be one of the big things we talk about. 2015, semiconductors were bullish Bitcoin was bearish. In 2018, Bitcoin entered a bear market, the semiconductors made a slightly new all-time high about 3 to 4 months after Bitcoin topped, and then we we entered a bear market. You can see simultaneously.

[00:05:50]And notably in 2019, I'm not going to argue 2019 that much because it was not a bear market for Bitcoin. You can see the bottom was already in. But again, you can see that the S&P and the semiconductors moved higher, Bitcoin went down, and we had a monster crash at the end of the year. Or I think it was a couple months after the new year. So, I don't think it's different this time.

[00:06:14]I think you're seeing a clear indication that the the semiconductors are just going parabolic right now, and Bitcoin is not moving. If history has anything to do with that, then we have exhibit A, B, and C. I think that exhibit D will be to the downside. And the question is when is that? I think you're going to get it into the summer, or sorry, coming out of the summer. I keep saying into the summer. So, we can remain bullish or elevated into the summer is what I keep trying to say. But I do think coming out of the summer, that should be that sweet spot where again, unless it's a supercycle, and then by July we're at 95,000.

[00:06:55]Again, I'm giving it until July.

[00:06:58]But the price of Bitcoin staying in the same spot will result in a massive crash all the way down, in my opinion, to sub 50K.

[00:07:08]The question though is, well, what happens before the summer? And I'm trying to give the bullish propaganda that you do have a chance to curl up, but if it doesn't want to curl up, I'm not going to make it.

[00:07:20]Right? I can only show you the evidence, and the evidence says that if it's bullish, now is the time for it to go up, which it's starting to curl out a potential bottom, but if it was actually a supercycle, it wouldn't be taking this long. I think the fact that it's sitting here, again, maybe there is one final rally, but the rejection from that point will confirm that we are in a bear market.

[00:07:43]Unfortunately, I don't know where the top is, but I can tell you in my opinion that what we're displaying right now is not super cycle material. The fact that Bitcoin has now been 78,000 for a month while the S&P is continuing to make new all-time highs, that's not necessarily something that you want to see. What you want to see is a move to the upside, and we just can't get it. So, that tells me that we're in a bear market.

[00:08:12]What does that mean for Dogecoin?

[00:08:14]Well, the same concept as the entire year. We're going to give Doge until the summertime. Anything less than 15 cents will trigger a new low for Dogecoin, and I do think that's the path that we're going to take.

[00:08:28]Could the bottom be in for Doge? I think the only way that it's possible is if there's a protection bounce somewhere in September. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball to be able to tell you that it's going to happen, so what I would simply say to manage risk is assume the bottom's not in.

[00:08:44]Because the evidence that we're seeing now is suggesting that the bottom is not in for Bitcoin, and once the summer passes, Doge not getting up to around 15 cents would probably cause the price to break the low, potentially down to these lower levels, which is what we've been looking for.

[00:09:03]So, I do think 5 to 6 cents is still on the table.

[00:09:08]In order to invalidate that, we would have to see a protection bounce for Doge probably to 15 cents. When would that bounce come?

[00:09:17]Well, you can see on your chart it's supposed to be coming now, and we're just not getting it. So, I do think that summer time frame is going to work out where we can remain bullish or elevated into the summer, which again, if it ends up being a super cycle, congratulations, but I don't see it yet. So, heading into the summer, sorry, coming out of the summer, that should be where the the next move down starts, or is like the middle of the summer essentially. So, uh same thing as usual. Again, we're just getting more evidence now that we're still in a bear market. The S&P is just moving higher every day. Semiconductors, technology, these stocks are all moving higher, and Bitcoin is just continuing to struggle. It's the same thing with the the technology stocks. If you put Bitcoin on the chart, you can just see that when when the technology sector is bullish, but Bitcoin is not, here it is again, it's a bear market. When technology is bullish, but Bitcoin is not, here it is again, it's a bear market.

[00:10:23]Whenever technology is bullish and Bitcoin isn't, it's again either a bear market or some type of COVID crash follows.

[00:10:32]That's just the evidence. If you don't agree, that's entirely fine, but you can see the semiconductors, or sorry, the every time the technology sector moves higher without Bitcoin, it's always a bear market or a 50% crash occurs for Bitcoin.

[00:10:53]That has happened every single time.

[00:10:55]Some people might be saying, "Well, what happened here?" That's why I'm saying when technology goes up without Bitcoin, technology went down here. So, if technology goes up, which you could still argue this was a bull market cuz Bitcoin made a new all-time high. This is the first time since 2019 the semiconductors and technology is moving higher without Bitcoin, which means if we look back at history, three out of three times there was a 50% move down. So, I'm under the impression here that this 50% move down that we're looking for is still coming. It's just probably at the end of the year. It's not anytime soon, but the reality is I keep saying middle of the summer that's 2 months away. So, we're going to give the bulls the hopium, but there's a really good chance here that we'll be looking back at this in 3 to 4 months and say, "Yeah, that was the top." And we're going to be much lower in my opinion. So, as always, stay safe.

[00:11:55]None of this is financial advice.