Aldo’s analysis provides a useful psychological framework for retail traders, but it ultimately mistakes lagging indicators for a predictive crystal ball. It is a sophisticated attempt to find narrative order within the inherent chaos of market liquidity.
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WARNING: Bitcoin Momentum is Dying. (The $72K Target)Ajouté :
What is up guys? Evanonaldo here. I'm going to talk about why Bitcoin may be rejecting from here. Why we may see some bearish price action, you know, assuming we don't jump up and hold 83K in this video. All markets update. Big update for you guys. A lot of good stuff. So, stay around to the end. Always appreciate you guys smashing the like button. Here's the latest what I've been doing. If you guys are curious, took this Bitcoin short, hit the first take profit so far over on Bitfy. I don't know if it got down that low on every exchange. Angel looking at the Coinbase chart there. There's weird. Their feed isn't loading, at least on my end. I don't know if Coinbase is down or what.
We're going to do TA on the Kraken chart, but ultimately it hit the first takeprofit here. So, that was a trade in Discord. Check it out down below if you guys are interested. Only 35 bucks a month. We're doing a bare market discount. And uh yeah, and if you guys want to make some of these trades, Bidfi is great. Tubbit is great as well.
Here's a good promo going on for 19 more days. Here's the deposit and then the trade um trade challenge bonus. So basically deposit a,000, get 200 or these lower amounts in the trade challenge right here. I get a kickback, you get a kickback. Good promo going on right now. Um bidfi as well. Deposit 20k, get 2k. So we're still doing that promo right here until one more week and you'll get, as you can see right here, 20% fee fee rebate over on Bitf. So check that out. Links down below um if you guys are interested. So, let's get into the analysis here, guys. You know, what's going to happen, you know, right now. So, we came up, we didn't quite technically hit our, you know, day daily 200 SMA, but that's a huge huge point.
You know, historically and generally in bare markets, you tend to, I think, retest it similar to there and then come down. Obviously, I do think that this time is much different and the the bottom is very likely in, but you know, you still could do, you know, some type of correction and, you know, don't count this last drop down, but maybe come down, you know, double bottom or higher low or something. That's what I've been kind of fathoming here, you know, based on that. And you do have your, you know, bare dive. Your money flow is not coming down yet, but you you do have that bear div. The RSIs are coming down the daily.
So, you're changing momentum. You know, a lot of this stuff is just following, you know, price following momentum. gap RSI is curving down, potentially reverse snake eyes or bearish snake eyes kind of forming on the uh on the two-day here, which could bring us down to, you know, where where might you ask? Well, the thing first of all that I want to say is you're getting your bright, you know, EMAs here on the 3-day. You you got on the two-day. These are signs that Bitcoin potentially could have bottomed.
And if we look at I just want to look at this previous bare market. Yeah, that was a pretty good sign here. By the time you were up to this area though and you got into the brights, you had that kind of correction. So maybe something like this, you know, let's just see what this was. Let's just experiment here. Okay, so it's 11%. So nothing too bad. And you know that that would be, you know, 11 12%. So essentially 73 72. Those areas I think are places to you know potentially low risk high reward short down to you know in terms of swing trades. you know, good insurance, especially if you don't know, any type of advice, but good insurance if somebody's, you know, very, you know, hyper long right now, as I am, um, kind of on everything, you know, for the last month, um, essentially because Bitcoin's looked more attractive than most things, you know, from a higher time frame standpoint, the six day, you know, I would guess something like this.
maybe retest this 200 um SMA in the six day, something like that. You know, high 60s could be possible. Something something of that nature does look very likely. And then in quarter four, maybe get up to 90K or more. So, we that's what I'm kind of thinking here potentially. Um going onto some of your lower time frames, money flows coming out. I mean, you're losing momentum, man. I'll tell you that much. You're losing momentum. It seems like the shorts are more in control from a news headline standpoint. the Iran stuff ain't a ain't looking too good at the moment. We'll see what the hell ends up happening there. Um but yeah, so there's that other thing too, some good housekeeping importance. Well, let's look at ETH first and I'll get to the housekeeping. Stick stay around.
Um but yeah, you know, 3-we coming up. I mean, ETH looks good. ETH looks like it wants to bottom. I think you may retest, you know, this trend line, you know, 1900 2000, just like you may retest somewhere in the 60s for Bitcoin. That seems likely as long as you remain kind of under this weekly 200 SMA. You know, he does remain a little bit more bearish here to potentially reject from it here.
Looks kind of bearish under two-day.
Momentum is shifting, guys. This looks kind of bearish. Here's your little short potential short potential right here. Something like that. I mean, that's a swing short or something like this. These areas do look decent for a potential short here. And yeah, I mean, kind of losing that low. Yeah, it look it looks kind of bearish. I think, you know, I think it's going to be more of a red May. That's what I'm feeling. You know, you topped out here April and that's is so far it's been selling May walk away for ETH. You know, can something change? Absolutely. But you're losing momentum, man. You're losing momentum. ETH versus Bitcoin. Here's the housekeeping, guys. I got some ETH, you know. Um I got some BMR. If it loses this low, essentially hits this area, I'm going to convert my ETH to to Bitcoin or something Bitcoin related like Micro Strategy, something I think it'll will outperform. And you know, that's just and I'll probably get back in. Here's the place to potentially get back into ETH on this weekly going into the the the green. So, if you do do something like this, I'll avoid this, you know, problem and then I'll, you know, maybe get back in on the way up. I I don't know what will end up happening.
It's tough to say. Maybe we hold this area. Maybe I don't even have to, you know, convert. Maybe we get a jump here.
But I think if all markets do dump, this is probably gonna, you know, invalidate my thesis there. Same thing on bit Bitmine versus Bitcoin. If this loses that area, this is have some exposure.
If this loses that area, I'm converting to Bitcoin or, you know, Micro Strategy, things of that nature. So yeah, and I mean ultimately Micro Strategy as well, hitting this major kind of point. I don't know if we're we're there yet. I think you're still in the the crab market. People make fun of me for the crab market, but f you. No, I'm just kidding. Um, you know, something like that. I mean, I'm just spitballing here, but you know, I mean, 20%, you know, something like that does seem pretty likely. Selling cash secured puts on this makes sense probably to to get in at some better levels, but I do think there's all likelihood that this has, you know, probably bottomed. If we look at, you know, for example, BMR versus Micro Strategy, this is one that's been bleeding. I think you're Yeah, I mean, let me just look at this a little bit.
Yeah, you're you're breaking down. I I would get out. I would convert to Micro Strategy because Micro Strategy will probably, you know, outperform this. I think this is kind of well, look, the the place to get back in would be the weekly going back into the green, but I'm going to get out of this um tomorrow. I don't know if I'm going to get out of ETH itself, but you know, convert this over to something else.
Maybe selling cash secured puts, micro strategy, or IBIT, something of of that nature. Um other topic other things in the news topical stuff you know SanDisk right here that's a topical thing um ultimately and that's kind of losing you know that area right there potentially losing that area right there um so that's kind it's starting to lose major momentum it's kind of like a three strikes you're out um well where was it let's just look at um I just want to see the okay you don't even have a red hikenash on the daily yet but it was like you had this consolidation area and you broke up you had this consolidation area you broke up feel like this time you're going going to consolidate and maybe break down. Got some big peaks, big support here. I mean, that's a 50% correction. I don't know what the hell is going to happen with this, but I know it's losing momentum. I'll tell you that much. I wouldn't short it necessarily, but I I wouldn't, you know, this is more of let's see. I mean, if you do go into a bare market for this, maybe end a year would be a good buying opportunity. You know, 8 to 12 month bare market, something like that. End of year, early next year, especially with a 50% correction, that would be the place to uh to kind of get in there. You know, same thing too for some of the ASI stuff. Palunteer still looks pretty damn bearish in my opinion, in my view. And I think this could come down, you know, potentially like $70. That's where I'm looking at this. I think that would be, you know, potentially a good, you know, buy if you do come down, you know, that much. We'll see what the hell ends up happening, though. We'll definitely have to see. Um, just a few others that I've looked at that I wanted to, you know, that I definitely need to check on right now would be Strive versus Bitcoin.
Okay, so this is still okay. It's probably going to come down a bit as long as you kind of hold that this area.
I know it's a big kind of, you know, range there. As long as this is a smaller position, obviously, as long as you hold that area, I'm still cool with this. Um, you know, and I think this, um, it's going to look the same against like BMR. So, I mean, you you could mess with, you know, if you want to be ballsy, you know, um, try to convert BMR to this or something. Not any type of advice, though, obviously. But yeah, the other really small, you know, cap that I've looked at that I may have to get the hell out of um relatively soon is is Hyper Hyperion DeFi, but this is so far okay. Um you're trying to jump here. So again, pretty small position. Um as long as you hold kind of I would Yeah, as long as I hold these lows, I'm okay. I'm cool with this. Um not a large position though, but sometimes you you look at these and they they always find a way to roll over. So just keep that keep that in mind. TRX, you know, that's one that people have talked about. I would I would assume or, you know, estimate here that this potentially would see a, you know, kind of pull back from this major level. I think is is loading, but this, you know, this daily, you may, you know, kind of get this and come back a little bit. So, that's my view. But on the dip, I'd look into getting into this potentially. Um, you know, a few other things. I mean, your yields, um, we'll see what happens. I do think these I think every I mean my guess here and this is not even based on headlines or based on anything. This is just you know my guess is that this will come down but like a lot of things will come down. You know what I mean? This will come down. I think oil is good. I think just everything's going to come down for some reason. Um you know that's just my my kind of guess here. NASDAQ as well. I think your big line in the sand is like 686. If you lose that you're probably going to come back to like 670 or something. You know if you're looking there. Um, I don't think you're going to I mean, you could have a 9 or 10% correction potentially. Um, let's keep that in mind. Again, it's kind of tough to say. You got some peaks over here for your S&P 500. That's 5%. Um, you know, stuff like Palanteer comes down and like your Sandis comes down, that's going to hurt the NASDAQ more than it hurts the S&P 500. So, let's keep that in mind.
But I think this potentially could come down to these points at some point. Or maybe I'm just being too freaking pessimistic. But keep your eye on the daily bear div. Um, you know, as of right now, the thing too is like, you know, for the macro obviously, and I'm, you know, if I do say so myself, I think I'm one of the best, if not the best macro allocator out there, um, in terms of just, you know, going um, spot trading some of this stuff for long term. But, you know, I still think that Bitcoin looks very strong, gets the S&P 500, looks like the most attractive, you know, damn thing in the game. I mean, even, you know, Bitcoin versus, you know, SanDisk, I think that, you know, I think, and I know it's like the thing. It's like it's not going to go down forever is what a lot of people say, but I think this will be the point where Bitcoin shows some, you know, momentum, but man, you know, it just keeps going down there. So, yeah. I mean, anyway guys, that's all I pretty much have for you guys right now. Keep an eye on some of these, you know, pairs, you know, especially Bitmine, you know, versus Bitcoin, all that. Bitcoin probably should get out. You know, like I said, ETH I'm probably going to get out of if you lose these areas. It's borderline, you know, it's kind of borderline, but I should and in terms of this chart, I should be, you know, more in micro strategy in this. So, yeah.
Anyway, guys, smash the like button and check out the exchanges, Bidfi, if you guys are interested. Good deposit bonuses, 20% fee rebate on all your fees, two bit as well. So, check these out. Really good stuff. They are the first two links down below. And uh check out the Discord, too. We are running the promo on it. And uh if you want to do a one-on-one session with me um or get some personalized coaching, check out it's in the Patreon link down below.
Check that all out. I'm doing a pretty good deal on that. So I'll see you guys very soon. Goodbye.
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