Are We In A Buy The Rumor... Sell The Fact Market?

Ajouté : 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]What happens when history is made?

[00:00:02]Semiconductors just went on one of the biggest streaks of all time, but now Wall Street has shown signs of weakness over the last two sessions. And this is all happening ahead of big earnings.

[00:00:13]Could it be a buy the rumor, sell the fact? And was that just an island reversal that we saw on the most important sector in the markets right now? With it tipping 14% of the S&P, what exactly happens as we now get a new Federal Reserve as well? Well, Bitcoin has a little bit of a story about what's happened in the past, and we need to talk about that as oil also starts to ramp up. Yes, guys, there's a lot going on, and we're about to go into one of the biggest 24 hours ever recorded when it comes to markets and the movements that could happen. Guys, if you love stocks, commodities, or cryptos, make sure to watch. There's a lot to get into today together.

[00:00:56]Well, welcome back everybody to the daily show and boy oh boy did we see some interesting movements over the last 24 hours with a pickup coming off that number one darkpool trade that we'll talk about a little bit later on on energy and of course the first day of real significant weakness in semiconductors after a historic streak but let's just talk about the next 24 hours at 10:00 a.m. we have an interest rate decision in Canada 2 p.m. the US 230 Jerome Pal's big speech and then of course 400 p.m. and 4:05 we get the big earnings coming out whether it's Google, Amazon, Meta or Microsoft, this is pretty much the largest market capitalization day that you see during earning season and if markets do fall off this could be one of those times where we have a reason to do so. Has the market got ahead of itself in terms of repricing based on the earning season being so good so far? Well, before we talk about that, I want to talk about a couple of big macro storylines that are going through. We shared this one over at FX Evolution, and it comes, of course, courtesy of the Fred data here, and you guys can see that real residential property in China is absolutely collapsing. And no, this is not a new thing. Obviously, we saw all of this begin in 2022, but it doesn't seem to be decelerating either. the trend is pretty well intact to the downside. And if you were to buy a house and take out inflation, you'd actually be flat on 20 years worth of gains.

[00:02:22]That's pretty worrying, especially when you're considering the stuff that's looking like going on in the sunb belt right now in the US. I always ask you guys, what are you hearing? What are you seeing on the ground? So, let us know in the comments down below. And also, if you're new here, remember to subscribe.

[00:02:36]We got 242,000 subs thanks to you guys.

[00:02:38]And we do a daily show. And this week is the week to be of course involved due to the fact that we have the big earnings.

[00:02:45]So make sure to subscribe, hit that bell icon. So let's kind of kick things off here with this story. Why is this important? Well, we're also seeing a similar thing happening in other countries around the world. New Zealand has been dropping now for a couple of years. Canada has also been dropping for a little while now, entering into kind of in some ways a bare market in terms of property. And of course, the UK has also been declining. Now, with Australian markets starting to look a little bit shaky as well, are we really seeing the end of what was a historic property run and the beginning of stagnation or even worse, a possible debt crisis? Well, guys, this is something that is going to happen throughout 2026 in terms of a storyline and we needing to pay attention to it.

[00:03:28]But for now, the economy and the stock market of course are partially disconnected. And what that means is that really all eyes have to be on semiconductors and AI businesses. We know there's a couple of AI businesses that are looking at IPOing and most of them are trying to target the end of 2026. But on top of that, we also have new changes being made in the AI industry. Copilot just came out and announced that they're going to be going to a tokenization system. That is that we'll pay based on the actual time needed. that is that we'll actually start paying and really seeing what this is costing potentially the businesses.

[00:04:06]It's been theorized that what we're actually paying right now in terms of either free or of course the small monthly fees is not actually the real cost of what this is all going to end up being. And you can see here Uber recently burnt through its entire year of budget in just a few months showing that realistically, yeah, we're going to have to sh see at some point companies start to not burn this cash and say, "Hey, we need to actually make money on this stuff." Claude's new token system is coming, of course, commercially, and as we know, this is going to be of course a big thing. It's attacks on thinking, and especially with all those hallucinations we have in AI, it could be a big concern. I'd be interested to know your comments down below. We will be doing a special on this soon and I will be writing an article on it as well as part of our latest newsletter which is of course completely free. Links in the pin comment down below guys to sub for that as we do give one free institutional insight each week and this one I think is going to be pretty special. US semiconductor market as we mentioned it's getting up there. Top down charts here and shared from bar chart over on X. Remember to go to topdowncharts.com. Give them a follow if you're interested. Basically shows here that semiconductors markets are going through the roof. Now we have seen semiconductors markets hit of course high market capitalization before before the.com boom and back then they also went crazier in terms of just speed and momentum. But what we do have now is a market that is being made up of AI.

[00:05:35]Basically the capex spend the big mag seven stock spending most of the money.

[00:05:40]I think it's like getting on about 50% of all the money that goes to Nvidia pretty much is from just a couple of companies. And all of this is kind of creating that self-fulfilling prophecy of the recycling of money. And this is the concern that a lot of bears have on markets, but it hasn't eventuated.

[00:05:56]Remember, this was a story that was big in 2025. Yet, what did we see? A series of higher highs and higher lows. Now, when will that change? Well, that's the key with markets. markets can stay irrational longer than many people can remain solvent. And of course, Michael Barry and others have been going quite negative on the industry for a little while, but it hasn't actually shown signs of weakness. So, just remember, it's very important to see things like semiconductors versus the SPY comparative weakness. not something we've had in recent times, but 14%'s big and 42% plus of the S&P is now made up of tech companies, showing how resilient, well, how reliant really the US stock market is on continuation of growth, especially in the AI sector.

[00:06:40]Speaking of semiconductors, you might be thinking, oh, it's really expensive.

[00:06:44]Well, not by the old metrics. In terms of what Duality Research has put together here, which is an excellent chart, give Duality a follow over on XYUS. is basically we have here a market that has been declining in terms of the overall Ford PE ratio and actually is still cheaper than where it was back in October of last year. Now the boffins over at Wall Street have been upgrading everything this earning season absolutely going out of control which brings that question of is this a buy the rumor sell the fact we did see a couple of companies already announced smaller ones admittedly that just this week have dropped off after giving earnings. So I think it's going to be important to note what happens here with the Mag 7, but for now the market's been pretty resilient. So it kind of suggests that if we do get dips, will there be buyers? Well, we'll have to find out.

[00:07:31]But we've got some key levels to look at later on today's show. Relative performance versus the S&P 500. Another great chart here from Duality that we shared in the previous video. We did see a little bit of a pick up in some of the defensives over the last 24 hours. Most notably, energy continued its little kind of upward trend after of course regaining that number one largest trade zone. But it has been driven by technology, semiconductors, and really just gamma stocks at this stage. FOMC interest rate decision. What does it do?

[00:08:00]The forecast is probably just to stay the same. I don't see why there'd be an interest rate change just yet, especially with a new Fed chair coming.

[00:08:07]But whatever happens, the markets, at least recently, have actually declined off the last two sessions, even though rates were held the same. So, interesting point here. Often the 2 p.m.

[00:08:18]announcement is very different to the 230 Jerome Pal speech. And this will be possibly a big one. So do remember when Jerome talks or any Fed chairman talks often the markets will move in weird ways and that's why uh you do always want to be paying attention more to the speech in terms of price action. It can often even reverse what's happened based on interest rate decision itself. Now we did see a massive trade the other day the number one largest darkpool this one here from volume leaders on energy stocks. You guys know we're a bit of a fan of checking these things out and what we've seen since then is a slight regaining of price. Now on top of that we've also got longerterm option or longerterm contracts here in the futures market when it comes to the oil price actually remaining really resilient and high and that's suggesting that people think it's going to be higher for longer in terms of energy price. We've also seen USO here as well get a couple of large transactions on it. It doesn't necessarily mean that these are strong buyers or anything like that. Previously, the big transactions have either happened on dips or the end of kind of rallies, but this one here seems to be in a strange location. So, we'll see how that one plays out. But there's the last big four that have happened there. When it comes to the crude oil streak, Blue Kurdic's got a great chart on this, which kind of I think marries up well with what we've been seeing, which is that generally speaking, when it um stays in a little bit of oversold territory, the markets themselves often will rally. You can see here that uh we do have a point here when it comes to that big streak that we've had then it tends to continue for a little while and I think that's the thing while volatility has been in the energy stocks in recent times the trend at least on the higher time frames is now intact still to the bullish side. So that's why it's such an interesting level especially considering that we're starting to see those large transactions going on. Will it be the same as last time when we had basically some significant weakness and then we broke out and we ended up seeing you know strength 100% of the time at least in these couple of data sets we were up over the next two months. Take of it what you will but it is an interesting data set overall. AMD big rally big transactions now of course a bit of volatility coming in. We did see the first two days of kind of weakness here in what has been a historic run on semis and chips. It went of course up for so many days that we rewrote history realistically in terms of the amount of days up in a row. And we did just see two kind of big sessions days followed by a gap down in semis which we'll look at in a moment cuz that was really the first sign of weakness that we've had this whole time. The big gold trades like next 24 hours so far has been down.

[00:10:58]We'll check that out later, but that was in our previous video. And obviously earnings here. Here they are guys.

[00:11:03]Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, big ones here. Qualcomm as well will be very interesting. And then on Thursday, we've got Apple and a lot of people will be looking, I think, at SanDisk as well.

[00:11:13]We'll cover these in our next video. So, make sure to stay tuned for that. Terms of expected options moves, you guys know the drill. Big moves. Why? Well, because there's going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of potential bowl here, even trillions depending on how big these market movements are. And you can see here that Microsoft, for example, is expected to move, according to the options market and earnings watcher here, plus or minus 7%. That's a huge move indeed. Let's now take a look at the US dollar. It keeps kind of climbing up a little bit. Why? Well, that's kind of a riskoff sentiment. Of course, we did see some news coming out in terms of OPEC and what's going on there. So, a little bit of, you know, kind of risk off, I guess you would say, over the last 24 hours. the first signs of something going on. But the dollar itself still climbing potentially towards that resistance of around 99.

[00:12:03]When it comes to the S&P, you can see here that it's just been climbing higher. No new low breakout. Still a series of higher highs and higher lows, but the US uh 500 on the 2hour that has hit and actually went slightly under.

[00:12:17]First weakness we've seen really underneath the 50 exponential. So that's the first breakdown. slight change of trend on the very small time frames.

[00:12:27]It's probably not much we can really go off. You've still got a series of higher time frame, higher highs and higher lows. So, until that's really broken, something like a 7050 level, it doesn't really look that weak in terms of where we've got some of the major kind of levels in the future. You know, we've got things like the 20 moving average sitting at 7,000 now. The anchored VWAPs are starting to come up to that 7,000 level. And of course, we always look at options. So, let's take a look at options. 6,800 still the most put struck level. 6,900 after that and tons of calls at 7,200. So 7200 marking a pretty important level. 7,100 next 24 hours is the big put zone. So that's the next 24 hours. Uh might be an interesting level for people to look at. And the cues is kind of similar. We're right around that level of pretty much where you've got tons of calls sitting there. And of course, if we do end up driving higher due to earnings just being so much blowout and the buffins continuing to upgrade every stock under the sun, then we could be pushing positive gamma in a kind of big way. It looks like here about 658, which is pretty much where we closed, is currently the puts of the next 24 hours. Interesting. Nvidia, what's going on there? Still pretty strong. Still broke up high. Still weekly close high. Of course, it's going to take more than just a little bit of pressure to really push down these these semis, but Nvidia does have, of course, that really strong breakout recently.

[00:13:49]And I bit, yeah, nothing much going on in the crypto world. 41 is the put wall and about 4544 on IBIT is the call wall.

[00:13:57]When it comes to Tesla, it is still sitting exactly where you would expect it to be, which is the daily 20 moving average. Literally no changes on that for the last couple of sessions. Let's now jump into some of the charts that matter. We'll start off here with some of the kind of inflationbased charts.

[00:14:13]First up, XME. We've seen some pickup recently in metals and mining. And of course, we did see a higher high being formed on the technical side. The market has also done a 2050 cross on the daily, which is, you know, considerable. And the markets themselves have remained relatively resilient in the metals market, unless it's precious metals. And energy itself had another okay session on it. still continuing to climb higher after that massive number one trade that we saw over here. Maybe more interesting than that though is the oil markets, the futures contracts. Here we've got the December one. Most retail traders don't look at this by the way. So definitely make sure you're checking this one out guys um and you follow along cuz this is important stuff especially when it comes to the future of 2026 and 27 is that we're seeing about seven gate a barrel by the end of the year according to the futures market. Now, if that breaks higher, it's suggesting that we've got sticky longlasting problems. Now, you probably in the in the community here, you guys probably already like, "Yeah, well, Tom, no d." But the market once the market starts to spot that and doesn't like it, then of course it starts to get priced in a little bit more. You can see here if we look at US oil, it was up over the last 24 hours and it dropped a little bit near the end of the day, but still a slight change of trend towards the upside on both Brent, on WTI, on so many things. So we are seeing a little bit there. On to semiconductors. Massive volume at the bottom and a uptick here in socks S which is the bare kind of fund over the last 24 hours. This is going to be a wild. This has absolutely gotten crippled. Remember guys, risk management is key whenever you're looking at these types of things. You know, I'm not a big fan of these three times ETFs for these very reasons. Look at the degradation of price over time. Wow. Absolutely horrific, guys. Um, so yeah, just always make sure you check out a chart and have a look at the higher time frames so you can get a bit of an idea of what happens when you go bad. Wow. Okay. Don't be an investor back in 15 against this market.

[00:16:09]Holy moly, guys. That is some big moves.

[00:16:11]But it's because of course you're going against the backbone, the strongest thing in the market, which is the semiconductors. And you can see here this weekly 20 has gone ballistic and price actually moved away. This is this is remember overall semiconductor outperformance of the spy. We've got a movement up 18% in terms of outperformance. Now I don't even know have we actually seen that like over here. How much was it? 18% and it was kind of topping out a little bit there.

[00:16:39]And then we've got this one here which was about 13 14. You know it really is quite extended away from normal expectations. Now, doesn't take a uh a genius to recognize that on charts, but certainly a bit of a pick up. The question is, is this an island reversal?

[00:16:54]Well, it's a pretty small island if it is, but it is still a gap up. It sat for 2 days. We've got to also remember that it came in like 520 on the Monday session. Was it the Monday session?

[00:17:05]Yeah, the Mon No. Yeah, the Tuesday. No, the Monday session. Yeah, that's right, guys. I'm in Australia. Sometimes things are down. We're in the forward times.

[00:17:13]We're in the backwards times. you know, sometimes uh you just don't know which day it is. But anyway, over here you can see it gapped up 520, went back down, ended up getting two sessions uh sitting together, which is obviously a classic for an island reversal. It then gap down, end up creating a dogey. So the market is actually seeing a bit of volume on the semiconductors when compared to of course what we've been seeing on the stock market, which has been very low volumes. You can see here as well the 20weekly moving average has been historically a very important point. So if the market does dip off uh there are a couple of things we'll be looking at and one of those is going to be probably an anchored VWAP off the bottom and I would say that if it does kind of come down this daily 20 with anchored VWAP area could be of interest.

[00:17:58]So of course it's not that far down but that's probably going to be uh the first area you'd have to think the market may weaken off to. Now we did mention before that the spies volume is bad. It was up and I expect it to of course increase over the next 24 hours with all these earnings, but still historically low stuff. Check out our previous video if you're interested in our thoughts on that one. Uh when we go to the Cosby, it's still driving higher. So the old RAM side is still driving higher and everything to do with hardware. You can see DRAM was down on the session. So yeah, take of that what you will, but Cosby is still driving higher. And as we mentioned, Tesla, another dogee. So it is holding the zone and it is holding exactly where you would expect it to have problems. So just shows you again why technicals are really key to markets. Gold, this was pretty much one of those classic cases of a bit of weakness showing up in small time frames like we mentioned in the last couple of videos. It happened in both gold and silver and then it has continued to weaken. So it's dropped off. We're not quite at 4500 yet, which could be where, you know, gold ends up, but the market is a series of lower lows and lower highs on the small time frames. Big, you know, giant time frame traders probably won't care as much because it's not like it's underneath the uh weekly or or the daily 200 or anything like that. So, it's okay. Silver, uh, yep, series of lower lows, lower highs. Silver, of course, will generally time in well with gold, but it is still weak on the small time frame charts. When we take a look at the Chinese markets, they're holding on just as best they can. Uh we can actually set a little kind of higher high here at 261.

[00:19:37]But the market itself still quite weak when it comes to the Chinese markets and rotation. We've also seen uh emerging markets, we've talked about those a few times. They've had that island reversal, gap down, gap up. Now that's more like an island and that's now got back to the resistance. But if we do see risk off, you know, expect these markets to still struggle. they are in a multi-year um high closure. So if you ever go through history, you'll see that emerging markets have been emerging a long time, but this is a very significant break that happened and we talked about in January. So interesting uh rotation going on there. When it comes to the NASDAQ, it's still holding.

[00:20:14]I mean, we don't even have a lower low yet on the higher time frames. So things like you know will we get underneath prices of 26 kind of five area make a lower low you know at the moment even though it did close underneath the 2hour 50 which makes me think the trend is weakening uh at this same time it's still holding up pretty damn well. So do I think that the trend is weakening most likely based on the fact that it wasn't absolutely rebounding off a level that we've seen it rebound off so strongly on the way up. Uh but it doesn't mean it's it's got to sell off. It could also just be one of those huge pit levels uh that we sometimes see on markets. But semiconductors certainly did weaken the last 24 hours. When it comes to crypto, it is still pitting on Ethereum. The low held and Bitcoin itself, as you can see here, has broken below this allimportant trend line. So you can see here the trend line has broken below. A lot of people have this trend line. They're kind of going, "Yeah, see I told you it's really weak." We'll see. I mean, obviously 79,000 plus would be strong because that would break a higher high.

[00:21:20]At the moment, this market's just kind of floating, you know, above 74. And I think you want to see 74 hold. Now, at the start of today's video, we talked about Bitcoin and the Fed. Now, if you go back through all of the Fed chairs, not so much the stock market, cuz that's more of a coin flip, but Bitcoin anyway has often been suffering around new Fed chairs. We can see here the first Jerome Pal, the second Jerome Pal, both markets already dropped off and both were actually in bearish or at least selloff modes coming into it. Now, of course, middle of May, we will see the new Fed chair. So, I'm sure this is a chart we'll revisit and talk about them.

[00:21:55]Interesting times though, guys. And of course, the next 24 hours, just remember that it is all about probably the press conference and then the earnings, earnings, earnings. And going off what we know so far, it's probably likely earnings is going to be relatively good.

[00:22:11]The question is, has Wall Street got ahead of themselves and done a buy the rumor, sell the fact? The only thing we do know is the streak is over on semiconductors and we have some little forms of weakness or at least slowdown showing on some of the major indices.

[00:22:26]Good luck out there, guys. I hope you enjoyed today's video. Remember to sign up for the newsletter. Check us out next and we'll see you in the next one. Bye for now.