Cathie Wood – I’m Nervous About What’s Coming! MicroStrategy & Bitcoin Update"

本站添加: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]uh watching Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin is moving up relative to gold. This um this uh would suggest that we've held the sort of the higher lows. The trend is up, shall I say? The trend is up over time. And we do believe it is up over time. We would not be surprised to see gold continue to fall, especially if we're right on the dollar and bit Bitcoin continue to increase. We're expecting though as the economy turns around dramatically, as July 4th um gets closer, uh it is our 250 year old uh birthday party as a country and we think there's going to be a lot of optimism around that period. Uh we hope that the administration gets what it wants in terms of the Clarity Act being passed by July 4th. That would be a boon for the uh crypto asset ecosystem.

[00:01:06]>> Kathy Wood says Bitcoin could be entering one of the biggest wealth transfer moments in modern history.

[00:01:11]While fear around inflation, oil and recession dominates headlines, she believes the real story is accelerating innovation, deflation from AI, and Bitcoin steadily outperforming gold.

[00:01:23]According to Kathy Wood, the market is missing a massive shift that could send Bitcoin and disruptive tech assets into a powerful new bull cycle. Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space and drop your comments and observations in the comments section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the video. Uh here uh we're into market indicators. Uh and we're beginning to see slow slow, but that metals to gold ratio in green there, it's trying to turn. Uh maybe more because gold is falling than metals increasing, but at least we're seeing some stabilization.

[00:02:22]uh we are not seeing much of improvement in the 10year Treasury yield. Uh but if growth picks up dramatically and the 10-year Treasury yield were to stay uh around here, uh that would suggest that the yield curve um is going to continue flatten and perhaps invert and in a recovery. And if we look back to the last technology revolution which was telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine building on the railroad ecosystem uh that had been built out in the United States during that period, the 50 years through the roaring 20s, the yield curve was inverted most of the time and the average inversion was roughly 100 basis points. Here is the price to gold ratio.

[00:03:18]As I've mentioned, um, a strategist, uh, I've always admired, Charles Gav of Govcal, um, really believes that we're going back into a 70s style environment.

[00:03:32]And here you can see the S&P fell relative to gold very dramatically. He is focused on our deficit, the the government deficit and and our debt level. And uh I've already told you what we think about that. We disagree with him. We think this is going to reverse and we think it will go to all-time highs. Uh we've got a little bit of a leading indicator here. Uh despite the the rapid increase in oil prices, um this ratio S&P to oil is closer to its all-time high. And we like to look at both gold and crude oil. Often do a ratio of them. Uh but here with transitive property, you can you can see we're using uh the S&P and um it's closer to its high. So we think it also will go to an all-time high because we really do think oil prices now that the UAE has moved out of OPEC uh that it's going to open the floodgates. has been frustrated for years, years and years.

[00:04:41]And of course, we have Venezuelan oil gushing out as well. And the US, it is stunning. The US uh crude oil exports have gone from essentially zero in 2015 to 6 million barrels per day. And our production is at 13 million barrels per day. And this oil price is inviting.

[00:05:06]It's a clarion call for even more production. So we think we're going to see big drops in oil prices in the years ahead. And of course Russia is it's the only way to finance the war, but it'll only be it'll be the only way to finance uh its um return from war and getting its economy back on track. Um and finally in terms of at least uh we have a few more indicators but these are the big four for us. Uh watching Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin is moving up relative to gold. This um this uh would suggest that we've held the sort of the higher lows.

[00:05:47]The trend is up. Shall I say the trend is up over time and we do believe it is up over time. We would not be surprised to see gold continue to fall, especially if we're right on the dollar and bit Bitcoin continue to increase. And here two measures of uh risk measures of risk, credit default swaps in the banking system, especially with the private credit debacle we've been we've been saying. We've said it's not systemic. This would corroborate it.

[00:06:19]The latest tick here has been down. And finally, uh the high yield uh spread, high yield bonds or junk bonds relative to 10-year bonds in terms of their yields. Again, very low by historical standards. Uh no spike in the aftermath of the p uh private credit um uh selloff here. So um with that, that's good news.

[00:06:46]Uh I know that the market has been trying for uh this year even though the market itself is up. Um uh the innovation space has been frustrating.

[00:06:58]Parts of it have done very well.

[00:07:00]Anything in space and defense tech has done very well. Uh but anything touching software even fintech and the payments ecosystems uh they have been hurt. And we think there's uh a lot of confusion. Sell now and ask questions later. So uh as you can see because we post our trades every day, we've been pi picking some of the babies uh uh out of the bathwater uh as it's been thrown away. So, um, uh, we're we're expecting though as the economy turns around dramatically, as July 4th um, gets closer, uh, it is our 250 year old uh, birthday party as a country and we think there's going to be a lot of optimism around that period. Uh we hope that the administration gets what it wants in terms of the Clarity Act being passed by July 4th. That would be a boon for the uh crypto asset ecosystem.

[00:08:14]And we also of course uh pray, hope and pray that the Iran war and whatever it is right now that it is done and that oil prices are resolving on the downside of expectations inflation as well which should drive consumer sentiment higher. Uh we certainly think that the administration is trying to foster this scenario uh because of the midterm elections. Uh time is short and takes a long time for perceptions to change, but maybe our birthday party uh 250 years old uh as an independent country uh will help the process along this time. According to Wood, improved regulation could significantly boost institutional confidence and accelerate broader crypto adoption. Now, perhaps the most important part of Kathy Wood's entire message is this. She believes the world is underestimating the power of exponential technological change. Most people still think in liner terms. They assume productivity improves slowly.

[00:09:21]They assume costs decline gradually.

[00:09:23]They assume innovation moves in predictable cycles. But would argue technologies like AI, robotics, blockchain, genomic sequencing, and autonomous systems evolve exponentially, not linearly. That means change can appear slow at first and then suddenly accelerate much faster than society expects. And according to Wood, we may now be entering that acceleration phase.

[00:09:46]That's why she remains so optimistic despite all the fear dominating headlines today.

[00:09:51]>> And here you can see where we are. Yes, 98.

[00:09:55]Um, a lot of people have been saying the dollar's crashing and as I've shown this chart before, it's not crashing. It it has been coming down. It is stabilizing.

[00:10:08]And um we think the next big move is going to be to the upside. Uh so if I put my cursor where uh Kshi says it's going to be 103, we think that's very possible. Uh so and then uh so now we'll move into monetary policy. Here you can see the CPI inflation rate versus M2 growth year-over-year. M2 in purple uh CPI in green. And you can see and and M2 is pushed forward by 18 months because um uh money growth tends to lead to inflation. And you can see uh that absolutely happened during co uh the monetary policy went crazy. I think peak uh year-to-year growth was 27 1.5%.

[00:11:03]And inflation followed uh and on the CPI it peaked at uh 9% on true inflation it actually peaked at 11%.

[00:11:13]And then of course it it did unwind, moved into negative territory which it needed to do and now we've had the cyclical rebound. Uh so uh just looking back over time when has money growth uh been higher than the CPI and are there sustained periods where that is so and the answer is yes and it's usually in the early stages of a recovery and then expansion. You can see here in uh the 80s uh coming out of the backto-back recessions in in early 1980 uh we had money growth well above inflation and then again you can see it before and after the 080 oh no I'm sorry after the tech and telecom um uh bubble and bust again there it was well above and Then uh you can see it after after the 089 crisis. Uh so here we are money above CPI but we haven't been through a recession or have we? As you know uh we've been saying we had for 3 years 2 and a half to three years we have been in a rolling recession. Certainly manufacturing has, housing has, low and middle inome earners are feeling like we're going through something more than a recession. Uh and so uh I think uh we're in the same kind of environment as we are as we were post those recessions.

[00:12:52]It is when consumers are cautious and uh and optimism is low. Uh so uh that is where we are right now. So we don't think um M2 growth which is at 4.9% is a harbinger of 5% inflation for example.

[00:13:13]Um here you can see monetary policy is it easy or tight uh below zero. So this is the yield curve the 2year versus the 3 month. So this is a shorter term yield curve. uh you can see we were negative during those two and a half three years um supporting this idea that uh the economy was in a rolling recession of of sorts and you can see we've just come uh out above that. The Fed uh has been easing for a while right now. You'd never know it from the narrative out there in the headlines. Um and yet it's this measure of the yield curve is just barely positive. uh you can see what happens during other uh recessions. It it tends to move into uh you know the roughly the 100 basis point uh range or above. Uh and right now we're only at 23 basis points longer term on this um measure of the yield curve. So, the 10-year uh Treasury yield to the 2-year Treasury yield. Um we're above we're above zero, so positively sloped. Um but look what is happening. This to me is fascinating.

[00:14:32]Um, I know I'm a bit of a geek when it comes to economic statistics, but I've been struck that we've se we've seen a downtrend in uh this measure of the yield curve since the the global financial crisis. Uh, and as you can see, um, in prior recoveries, we got certainly post 1990, we got into the 250 to 300 basis point range. Right now we're only at 49 basis points and it looks like we might be rolling over again. What could this mean? And and and you know one of the reasons I was struck by this early on was wait a minute in COVID every every country in the world was uh was um stimulating massively on both the fiscal and the monetary policy sides of the equation. And look, we only got to 150 basis points. And I've been asking why would that have been? And I think one of the reasons is that the long-term Treasury yield is beginning to hone in on deflationary undercurrents.

[00:15:50]Uh and if if it continues to move down now, we will have confirmation of that.

[00:15:57]And many times I've gone through the deflationary impact of all of the 15 technologies um around which we have centered our research and investing and they're beginning to move the needle now. AI AI every company's an AI company. They have to be just like every company's an internet company. In other words, they use uh they use these technology tools to increase uh productivity.

[00:16:25]And uh so AI training costs are dropping 75% per year and you've heard me before inference costs down 85 to 95% plus per year. Um highly deflationary. Now why don't you hear a lot about that? It is because the the frontier models uh are very expensive. uh you know the bleeding edge models GPT 5.5 came out in the last 10 days and uh open AAI has released something called um goal uh which can reason for n I mean for 20 hours uh and just gobbling up tokens um and uh performing better than Claude uh Claude uh code the latest version. So now you're seeing developers uh flock back to uh open AI and uh we see this competition um actually accelerating the space. So uh those models are very expensive but if you are using one generation before those models uh your costs to do so are collapsing good enough. Uh most people and certainly we do, we want Frontier.

[00:17:50]Uh we're doing leading edge research, so we're willing to pay. Um but a lot of a lot of companies can't afford to pay that much. So anyway, highly deflationary for most of of the world.

[00:18:05]Um here you can see what's also striking is that that yield curve is starting to compress even though oil prices uh on a three-month moving average basis are up 57% year-over-year.

[00:18:25]Uh and normally the if if this kind of increase in the oil price has been monetized, the yield curve does not uh does not uh start to flatten out. It steepens. Uh the fear is that the Fed will monetize if the pain gets uh if the pain is too much. So that is not happening. That's really interesting. Same thing here. Commodity prices. Here's a another way that you can see that. And this is not just oil.

[00:19:04]This is lots of commodity prices um are starting to move up because we are in the middle of we believe or in the early stages better said of uh what we believe will turn out to be a manufacturing boom. So uh demand is increasing relative to supply and we'll show you some green sheet shoots later on and yet here again the yield curve as I just mentioned is flattening. So interesting.

[00:19:37]Um here you can see uh inflation itself as measured by the core CPI and the core PPI. And what you're seeing interestingly, and it doesn't happen very often, is the producer price inflation in green on a year-over-year basis is above the consumer price inflation, uh, which is in the purple. Now, when does this normally happen? normally happens during recessions when uh the consumer says I I can't pay. I'm not going to pay anymore.

[00:20:20]Um and as I said, we think this is this is a vestage of the rolling recession that we believe we're exiting now. Wood openly acknowledges that markets may remain volatile as investors struggle to adapt to rapidly changing economic conditions, but from her perspective, the long-term trajectory still favors innovation, productivity, and transformative technologies. And that brings us to the bigger picture. Kathy Wood is essentially arguing that the next decade may not be defined by scarcity and stagnation, but by abundance created through innovation, artificial intelligence lowering costs, technology increasing productivity, energy markets becoming more efficient, blockchain transforming financial systems, and entirely new industries emerging from technological convergence.

[00:21:12]If she's right, many of today's fears may eventually look temporary compared to the scale of transformation still ahead. Now, I want to hear from you. Do you agree with Kathy Wood's outlook on AI and deflationary innovation?