الضربات الأميركية في إيران تشعل أسواق النفط مجدداً | قراءة في اتجاهات الأسعار - الجلسة الأولى

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Now, back to my guest, Mr. Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Markit. Welcome back. I was asking you about this shift and how the markets are interpreting the geopolitical reality and these negotiations. What has moved prices?

[00:00:21]How do you see the markets continuing to react strongly, sometimes unexpectedly, to posts from President Trump? Despite the fact that we've seen several claims that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, this hasn't materialized yet. Also, oil markets are speculating that a peace agreement is closer, given the flood of news over the weekend.

[00:01:05]However, we're seeing skirmishes between US and Iranian forces in the region, as well as some additional attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait, which is effectively maintaining tension in the oil markets. I think we need to look beyond social media posts and focus on what's happening on the ground. This requires acknowledging that even if a deal of this kind is reached... Even if this agreement is upheld—and these are two strong possibilities—it will only be the first step in a long and complex process before flows return to normal, which will maintain market stability until 2027. This is all well and good, Mr. Sol. These warnings, even from members of the Federal Reserve, indicate that the shortage in US oil supplies is insufficient to fill this gap. This also takes into account the significant shortage in the markets.

[00:02:19]If we look at the figures, we find approximately 14 million barrels per day of oil products and crude oil have been taken off the market. About a third of this amount has been compensated for by the destruction of demand, which we are seeing particularly in some emerging economies in Asia, as well as the decline in demand in China. However, the other two-thirds, about 10 million barrels per day, are being drawn from stockpiles. We will reach a point where more than a billion barrels are being drawn from stockpiles worldwide, including strategic oil reserves. This is unsustainable because, ultimately, the size of stockpiles is limited. This means that as long as the Strait remains closed, the destruction of demand must increase from one-third to encompass all the disruptions. This will affect the global economy, even if an agreement is reached. A peace agreement is unlikely in the coming days or weeks. However, due to the lengthy time required for insurance, shipping logistics, restarting production, and repairing some of the damaged infrastructure, we will see a significant decrease in demand, even in the best-case scenario. This will keep prices high. After flows return to normal, we will have to go through a very long process of replenishing the stockpiles that were used up. At this point, Mr. Sol, if you'll allow me, since the weekend discussions about reaching an agreement, let's talk about five or six days. The markets are losing approximately 15 million barrels daily. So, with a simple calculation, if we calculate this over six days, we're talking about 90 million barrels. It's as if OPEC decided to reduce production by one million barrels for 90 days.

[00:04:30]This issue was being measured more accurately in the markets. I would like your reading on the accuracy of this measurement. Every day that passes, 15 million barrels are lost.

[00:04:49]My point is that oil prices are significantly undervaluing the current situation, even in the best-case scenario. The situation is such that a peace agreement is in place and things are returning to normal. Oil prices are very low, as I mentioned. We are losing about 100 million barrels per week, so within 12 weeks we will have consumed the entire strategic petroleum reserves of the European Energy Agency. This has already happened over the past three months, and there are limits to how much we can absorb from this situation before we see major congestion in energy supply chains around the world. This will turn into a problem that goes beyond price; it will be related to the actual availability of fuel in the places that need it. So, surprisingly, the markets have been calm and frankly, quite lenient in the biggest disruption to the oil market in history, even bigger than what happened in the 1970s, and worse than any oil shock we have seen before. Now, based on this reading and downplaying the current crisis, a partial or relative downplaying, despite these price increases, let's consider this possibility: the matter is prolonged, and the agreement is not signed, whether due to escalation or failure to reach one. The important thing is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

[00:06:22]So, is it not surprising that we see new prices for the first time? We see it in history, and perhaps a spark will ignite these prices. Demand destruction acts as a counter-trend factor and curbs these prices.

[00:06:45]Ultimately, it will be a matter of timing.

[00:06:49]If levels reach, for example, $150 per barrel, this will witness a major demand destruction to help restore balance to the market. But what happens in practice is that oil prices rise significantly temporarily, for example, to $200, before we see demand destruction bring them back to normal.

[00:07:09]Unfortunately, what this means is that if the Strait remains closed for several more months, the level of demand destruction will have to rise to approximately 14 or 15 barrels per day. This will mean prices, or require a significant price increase, and will ultimately lead to a global recession to reduce global economic activity and enable the market to essentially achieve balance.

[00:07:39]Thank you from Sydney, Mr. Saul Kavunk, Head of Energy Research at MST Markey.

[00:07:45]Thank you very much.