US Grain Markets Brace for Summer Volatility | Presented by CME Group

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00][music] >> Grain markets are facing a perfect storm [music] and summer hasn't even started.

[00:00:08]Severe drought across the southern plains is taking a heavy toll on winter wheat. Fertilizer shortages are tightening supply further and a potentially record-breaking [music] El Nino could enter the picture in June.

[00:00:20]Hard red winter wheat, [music] otherwise known as KC wheat, accounts for 71% of US winter wheat production and 53% of all US wheat acres.

[00:00:29]With 2026 [music] seeing the lowest winter wheat acreage recorded since US record keeping began in 1919, [music] a drought in key parts of Kansas and Oklahoma is reducing yield estimates [music] on an already trimmed number of acres.

[00:00:42]New crop July hard red wheat futures finished the month of April 28% higher for the year.

[00:00:48]Fertilizer [music] disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East have money managers pushing future values for crops to be planted in spring of 2027 [music] to new contract highs. Farmers are already sharpening pencils to keep up with costs to produce next year as fertilizer prices [music] continue to climb. To finish April, benchmark December 2027 corn and November 2027 soybean futures [music] have gained 9% and 7% respectively with fresh highs in early May.

[00:01:14]A developing El Nino could strengthen [music] into a significant super El Nino event in the months ahead raising the stakes [music] for everything from summer rainfall patterns to global temperatures and therefore food prices.

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