Where Is Bitcoin In the Cycle? EMA Crossover Analysis

[00:00:00]One of the most common questions I get is where exactly is Bitcoin in its current market cycle? And to answer that question, we need to go back into the past looking at the bull market EMA crossovers, which I spoke about earlier this year, late January, about how we tend to see these bearish crossovers take place to proceed real deep downside, which has since taken place.

[00:00:23]So, let's dive into it. Subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future. Like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward. And let's dive right into it. So, back here, late January, we spoke about how these EMA crossovers tend to proceed quite a bit of deep downside. They have historically been developing a tendency that they happen uh a little bit earlier each time, progressively in each cycle. But, every time they do occur, they do tend to proceed deep macro downside. And I spoke about this when price was still at 90k, and we've seen quite a stark drop since then in the months that have since followed.

[00:01:02]Whenever we see a crossover take place, that's generally when we see downside get confirmed and indeed a new lower high in a sequence of prolonged extended lower highs as well. So, lower highs are effectively confirming, and the crossover confirms yet another lower high leading to additional downside over time. And we've seen quite a bit of downside in each cycle take place. And this downside happens at very different moments in a cycle. We've been seeing progressively that these crossovers happen earlier and earlier in the cycle, which makes sense that early this year we saw that crossover take place. And indeed, this was the second lower high in the new sequence of lower highs.

[00:01:48]Whereas, if we look at this cycle, this was also pretty much the second macro lower high in the cycle. But, here we saw this was the fourth cycle lower high pretty much. And over here we had this being really the third major lower high in the cycle. So relatively soon is when we saw this bull market EMA crossover for that bearish crossover to proceed macro downside. And this was only the second lower high in the cycle.

[00:02:22]And since then we've seen price develop yet another third lower high. We've seen lower lows even develop. And price may be on the cusp of developing a fourth lower high in its overall Bitcoin bear market cycle. And if we look at this cycle for example where we had one, two, three, four lower highs before we got into a bear market bottom, this might actually be a pretty decent indicator that maybe we have one more major lower high to explore before transitioning into that final major cluster in and around the bear market bottoming out region. So exciting times are ahead and it's definitely not time to be dipping our heads in the sand, the ostrich effect so to speak, because we've only really generated limited downside from these EMA crossovers. If we look to previous crossovers where we saw 60% downside, 50% downside, 67% downside if we really want to count this downside wick here, maybe that would be more on the end of 50 to 55% downside.

[00:03:35]Generally speaking, the whole takeaway from this chart is that we see at least 50% downside on crossover to bear market bottom. And we've only seen 38% downside since the crossover. Price has been making lower lows, price has been consistently making lower highs and might be on the cusp of developing yet another lower high. So, we're seeing this series of lower highs and lower lows also kind of dictate and direct price into lower and lower regions over time.

[00:04:10]And it makes sense from a market structure standpoint, but it also makes sense from a deviation standpoint, which crossover takes place and we see quite a decent deep deviation over the coming months. We haven't already seen that sort of deviation and if we're thinking about generally shallowing bear markets, we've spoken about this before here on the channel, but generally we're seeing shallower bear markets in each bear cycle, but this shallowing has been evident definitely, but not so drastic each time. Whereas, we'd need to account for a really drastic shallowing if we want to think about a bear market bottom already being in.

[00:04:55]Just looking at these figures, 38% on crossover. We saw that sort of downside, 60%, 50%, and 55 to 67% depending if we want to take into account this downside wick. It just shows how even though there may be shallowing, certainly there are shallowing bear cycles, that's for sure, but that shallowing isn't as drastic as what we have seen cycle to cycle as people are maybe suggesting right now at this moment in the cycle. So, we still probably have a bit more downside to go and generally speaking, whenever we see a summer range develop, we tend to proceed additional downside over time in that regard. So, it's really important to just know where we are in terms of the cycle. The lower high here would be the fourth in the cycle, which already is indicating that we're probably on the cusp of one of the final major macro lower highs before we enter that final bear market bottoming out region and still a bit more downside left to go here. But we'll be talking about this and more here on the YouTube channel. In the meantime, perhaps you'd like to join my brand new community here to become a disciplined crypto investor in 90 days.

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