President Macron Turns To Africa For Strategic Partnerships

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]All right then. Thank you so much uh for staying tuned. Well, away from banking now. Uh let's move uh to other issues.

[00:00:09]Now when the foreign finance minister of f France and Kenya opened the Africa forward summit, African France partnership for innovation and growth at the University of Nairobi on May 11. Uh the focus was to be uh to trying to find a common ground. The two-day meeting in Kenya is uh the first summit of its kind that France is hosting in an English-speaking African country that is not among its traditional partners. Now, there is a reason for this. According to analyst, President Emanuel Mcron wants to send a signal and initiate a shift away from France's previous Africa policy in West Africa. Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto will showcase their new partnerships and co-chairs of the summit. The focus will be enhance uh security economic investments and green energy.

[00:01:04]President Ruth also intends to discuss ways to make the global financial system more equitable for indeped African nations. France has also pledged to support this campaign. Around 30 of states and governments as well as international guests are expected to attend. President Ba Tinumbu is also attending this very important meeting.

[00:01:27]My guest is Mr. John Chuku. He's the founder and group CEO of Carry Assets Management Limited. Uh he joins me for this conversation. Good afternoon. It's good to see you. How are you today, sir?

[00:01:41]>> Good afternoon to you. I'm good. And you?

[00:01:43]>> Well, I'm very well. Uh doing better than yesterday. I should say that.

[00:01:51]like we say in Nigeria.

[00:01:52]>> Thank you so much. Well, I think we should start with an overview of this meeting.

[00:01:57]You know, we have many of these meetings. Even we have the African CEO summit also coming almost immediately after that. Uh that's also going to happen in uh I think that's going to happen in Rwanda. Uh so what do you make of this Africa partner uh uh meeting you know France Africa uh partnership meeting this forward summit? What do you make of it?

[00:02:19]Well to I think um at this point I would say it's more of a social gathering.

[00:02:24]Hopefully it's not going to just be a talk show. Uh something will come out of it. If you look at the kind of pronouncement that Micron has made that he's committing an investment about 23 billion euro which about 27 billion and he's saying about 14 billion of euro will come from private and public sector uh French entities that will be invested in Africa and they expect that about 9 billion will come from African investors. Um the question is are these um 14 billion that are coming from French public and private sector investors are they already uh have they done their um have they identified investment opportunities in Africa? Uh Africa is a very broad uh region. Uh you have uh almost all the um geographical regions reflected in Africa. I mean uh I mean weather regions. uh and then are you talking of investing in East Africa or investing in southern Africa or investing in North Africa or investing in West Africa or Central Africa? So where are these investment going to be channelneled? Have they identified different entities private sector entities that want to invest that want to invest in Africa? Have those investors identified investment opportunities in Africa and all those factors. So I think it's a for me a very optimistic commitment but I think it will be difficult to realize it is more of a PR show than an investment uh proposal >> but really are there opportunities that we can harness if they are what are the best ways to harness these opportunities uh Mr. your understanding.

[00:04:09]>> Yes. So there a lot of investment opportunities in Africa. Let me say put it this way. There a lot of opportunities in Africa to be harnessed but a couple of things have to be done.

[00:04:18]One the local government and when I mean the local government I mean the sovereigns the countries where those opportunities are have to create enabling environment to make those opportunities exploitable. Uh take for instance in Nigeria today you have we talk of Nigeria as a country of potentials but we talked about potential since I was born to today and those potentials have not been we are not doing the little the heavy lifting issue of insecurity addressing security challenges in in some of the countries in Africa issue of infrastructural supply we are not addressing that uh issue of u the right policy environment that we said divide private sector investors. Those are the minimum you would expect to have before you expect those investments to come. So if the French uh president says about 14 billion euro will come from French uh private and public sector entities. The questions are which countries will they be going to? Which sectors of the African economy? It's going to just going to be oil sector or it call it energy sector that they want to invest in. and what have been the experience of other investors in those sectors they want to invest in.

[00:05:32]The key thing for me like I said is more of a talk show. He had made mention that uh the intention is to win to divert African countries attention away from China and present Europe as a better investment partner than China or maybe even US. I think that's the objective.

[00:05:51]But you have to match China as firepower when it comes to their level of investment in Africa and their ability to understand the psychology of African leaders.

[00:06:04]>> Now I I'm still interested in where this um funds will be diverted. We are looking at energy transition, agriculture and artificial intelligence.

[00:06:14]to me aside a agriculture artificial intelligence and energy transition looks like uh we're already looking ahead and planning for the future so it looks like a feasible uh investment in my thoughts I don't know just open to your comments about that >> well on paper on paper they are viable sectors I mean the French president had that they already working out to establish a department or a faculty in the in the university in Kenya on uh artificial intelligence and all those things. So if they do that then they would have brought the intentions into reality. Um then when let's look at other aspects uh energy transition. So when you talk energy transition you're talking of transiting from fossile energy to renewable energy. So uh what do you want to do? Are you going to encourage uh investment in solar powered energy sources? Are you going to encourage investment in hydro uh hydropowered energy sources? Uh so how do you want to achieve that transition?

[00:07:18]And since African countries are divergent and dispassed, how are you going to work with them to ensure that all of them are singing from the same hook? We all moving in the same direction. Then you talk of investment in agriculture. How do you want to are you going to invest in the critical infrastructure gap that has constrained agriculture in Africa? uh irrigation cap irrigation facilities. Are you going to invest in that? Is the French government going to do that? If they're going to investment, are they going to also work with the government to make sure that those investments are sustainable? They are protected from insecurity. They appropriated from misappropriation and mislication and all those factors. So, it's a a long on on on promise and going to be very difficult at the level of implementation. Now the argument in many quarters will be the fact that um African countries don't want to rely solely on AIDS and they're talking about uh investing amongst each other uh what they have to offer presenting what they have to offer. uh what do you make of this fact uh uh that many leaders in Africa are now trying to push that no we don't just want hand out this time around we also want to be part of get our part of this cake and you know run this business do a lot of uh stuff around that space do you think we are ready to actually uh get our piece of the cake ah it's not a piece of the cake nobody has cake the baked the cake you globally come and got a piece of it it's about economy is not homegrown >> economic prosperities are all homegrown.

[00:08:51]Nobody is going to prosper, economic prosperity to you. So the question you have to ask our leaders, what are they doing to transform our economic landscape into productive economic environment? What are we doing to make it uh African countries low cost producers and high value good producers?

[00:09:15]What are we doing to improve the skills level in Africa as to make our labor quality to be comparative and competitive with labor quality elsewhere in the world? Those are what you need to need to improve productivity, improve the uh localization of productive activities in your country. Improve your ability to export multiple product other than uh extractive industry products to other parts of the world. ensure that you have value addition in what you produce. If we don't do those things, it's all about uh um speaking saying things that are pleasant to the ears. But for me, I need to see that heavy lifting and I'm not seeing so much of it in recent but one of the things that um the French president said in the earlier interview uh is that Africans should stop blaming the colonizers for their backwardness. I'm using the backward he didn't use the back word backwardness because of diplomatic reasons but for our economic uh backwardness simply he said look that how can you explain that you have had seven decades of uh political freedom and you are still where you see mind in poverty that we should stop blaming uh the um uh our western colonizers and then we should hold ourselves accountable I think I agree with him absolutely uh yes the man the um colonization and imperialism may have had some setback on African countries but there are countries who became independent about the same time Africa some African countries became independent and some of those countries had have now catapulted themselves into first world countries Singapore uh is one example so you have these instances look at the level of pro progress being achieved by Vietnam in the 70s Vietnam was a basket case but which African country has seen a transformation in their economic standing order and maybe at best that was standing in Rwanda but beyond that we've not seen any major transformation we're even seeing some case of retrogation South Africa is a given example we've seen a consistent retrogression since they moved from uh apatai regime to uh African Africans or African leaders govern governance or African-led leadership so and that does not speak that's not a good testimony for the African continent a lot have to do with the quality of leadership we have in Africa.

[00:11:40]>> So a lot of work has to be done around that. But when we are talking about this now, where does this place the AFCA? The AFCA is also somewhere there where we talk about African countries coming together, harnessing their potentials, working solo in that very large market and and we are not hearing for me I would say we're not hearing much around that with regards to our participation Nigeria in particular. Now, so where does where do we put the EFCFTA where we also looking at other partnerships like this one? Are we going to have to put all of them together on the table for us to get to where we should be?

[00:12:18]>> Yes. You know, when we talk Africa coordinated uh free trade agreement um and and like I said, we not even hear anything about that and we will be sitting back here and uh we would know when the uh chief has moved. The reality is that African continental free trade agreement is being implemented quietly by some countries and it's very simple.

[00:12:39]You are saying they have free movement of goods and services across African continent and eventually pro movement of personnel across African countries. So starting from the fact that productive activities within the African continental freed agreement will be h at zero duty within African continent. So you're going to see countries build their infrastructure supply to the extent that they will produce cheaply uh and then investors from all over the world will be coming to set up productive activities in those those country that have low cost of labor, low energy cost, uh more efficient transport system, more efficient logistic system, higher level of it security and then Nigeria would be the loser if we do not quickly begin to build those supporting infrastructure, social and fiscal infrastructure that make your environment a productive environment, make your environment a low cost producer. Um, if we don't do that like we have kept quiet, some other countries can do that and take what's going on today. Look at the West African sub region. Today, uh, Ghana witnesses 10 times more tourism visits, tourist visit than Nigeria. Today people go to Ghana to hold seminars and retreat instead of coming to Nigeria. The Ghanaian airport as small as it is is now turning to be a hub for the uh other African countries.

[00:14:06]And then look at our seapports.

[00:14:09]Countries like Mali, China and all the rest that are landlocked would rather export import their goods from China through Ghana than to import from Nigeria. And those are indicators of the direction of economic movement. But we seem to be oblivious of that until it becomes too late for us to compete.

[00:14:28]>> I'm worried. Uh it's a big one there.

[00:14:30]Well, let's take a step further and talk about uh the issue in the Middle East.

[00:14:34]Uh it's been a while. I I got your reaction also to that. Uh we see that still hitting us hard as we are paying uh the pumps of course for PMS uh this time. uh what do you make of this uh crisis and um what are your thoughts with regards to how it could distort projections already made?

[00:14:57]Well, let me start from how it how it is distorting projections already made. Uh take for instance household uh income.

[00:15:04]We've seen a situation where uh the price of um f has gone up. I just I looked at the pond price prior to the start of the war on 28th of February. uh pump price were about 800 naira 880 or so. Today we're talking of 1,350 what some place 1,400. So you almost talking of 100% increase and that is digging a big hole in household uh um um purchasing power and household disposable income. So that's having said that but on the other side of the converse we're also seeing the government getting a lot more revenue from export of crude. Uh good thing for us our crude export is not constrained by the straight of uh challenges rather it is constrained by our own endogenous factors our ability to produce more our ability to maintain peace and harmony within the cru producing regions of the country. Uh so ordinarily if we're a country like uh Saudi Arabia that is a a a um they that can easily increase his crew production at short notice um what we call a swing producer then today would have been smiling to the bank but unfortunately that is not happening but so what what we are seeing that as households we are not tra getting the full benefit of the war. government government may be getting it but has taking the pains of the war. Then looking at the earlier part of your question, um one was thinking that uh with the peace um the um suspicion of fighting um that we were going to have achieve a final resolution on this war.

[00:16:49]But it looks like that expectation is uh not going to be achieved because the US president already saying that look um the war may resume because the peace uh accord is now I think he said in is uh in intensive care or something like that. Uh so uh what we are likely going to see is that we may see a resumption of hostilities and when this hostility regime who knows how long it will last.

[00:17:21]Uh so in effect household should brace up for continuous high level of energy cost which is eroding our individual and household producing power. And when we are to prepare for that, how do we prepare for this increase? When salaries are not being increased in one way or the other, that's on one side. On the other side, we've heard our minister, coordinating minister of the economy tell us that government is not going back to subsidy. And I know we had that conversation around subsidy so many times uh Mr. Truku before all of this.

[00:17:55]So how do we balance this? We are no going back to subsidy and of course purchasing power are not enough to meet up with demands. Inflation is coming up by the end of the week. We don't know what that would spell for us.

[00:18:13]Okay. To do starting from the households uh what should we do like this government will always tell us we've got no tighten our beds. you continue to adjust your household consumption pattern and uh prioritize on those things that are uh what you may call um nondiscretionary expenses the expenses you must be food stuff uh minimize your commuting uh distance so in effect you have to adopt all that technological tools to engage in your activities like um what we're doing today maybe I would have driven to your studio but maybe the cost of that will take me to your studio would be so that you dig a hole in my pocket. Uh but by doing using a virtual platform, I've avoided that explanation.

[00:18:56]So Nigerians have to adjust their lifestyle to uh to reduce to the possible minimum those costs that can be avoided. Uh adopting other available tools like we talk of uh um these virtual platforms. So, and then uh you have to switch your consumption uh household consumption budget to the ones that are completely uh non-discretionary like food items, school fees, house rent and stuff like that. So, but in any case, however you do it, you cannot claim yourself to prosperity. Uh so, you're going to go through all of us are going to go through some difficulties.

[00:19:38]Um what is the government doing about that? best way in the world. I know US government just announced I think yesterday that they're going to remove suspend tanks on on gas so as to reduce the increase in gas prices. I had actually suggested that the government can cut uh Nigerians some slack by suspending even if it's not 100% suspension maybe 50% suspension of uh personal income tax uh so that households uh can plow back whatever they're going to save in the interim from um suspension of personal income tax to support their cost of living. I think that's one of the least the government can do. I I'm not sure the government I know the government has increased some allowances to federal government employees but 80% of the people who are working are not working for federal government. Most of them are working for private sector operators and and government state governments and local governments. So they have no way of benefiting from whatever increase the government has affected in the allowances of those uh in public sector like PDM travel allowance and all those things. Uh so that's uh but I think they are and then even for um corporates corporate entities the government can also cut themselves slack reduce the person the corporate tax rate uh or div or tax with tax or dividend that way you enhance household income and uh reduce the pains that most households are going through.

[00:21:06]>> Mr. If we didn't have a Dangot refinery operational in our country, what would have been happening to that segment if we were still basically dependent on importation?

[00:21:19]>> Well, for one indications uh I know a number of countries have gone through uh more severe challenges getting refined and product would have been one of those countries that would have gone through such challenges. There are no country like Vietnam a number of countries including Kenya many of them have found it difficult to get uh sufficient supply of refined petroon product uh I think that is easing a bit I think there's been some adjustment uh in terms of refining uh capabilities or refining resources uh that to some extent is moderated but the greatest uh pain point is coming from aviation fuel uh where most countries not just Nigeria are find it difficult to access aviation for a reasonable cost. So Nigeria Nigerians maybe would have been queuing to get fuel imported from other country at the peak of the crisis it would have been very difficult because um without a single refinary operating in the country given that our consumption is placed at between 15 50 and 60 million liters a day. uh so uh getting that supply of products. You remember at some point uh Russia is um banned export of refined petrol product. US banned export of refined petrol product. A couple of countries restricted export of refined petrol product leaving minimal window for those dependent on import. So I would say that it would have been very challenging to get sufficient supply of petroleum product into the country and maybe the price would have gone higher than what it is today.

[00:22:57]>> That's really a very serious one. So as we move towards the end of the week and of course uh inflation figures are to be out by the NBS. Uh where do you think uh we would um what figures are we likely to see? Of course, everyone talks about the jump considering the fact that the impact of um what's happening in the Middle East uh many say we would feel it more than what happened the previous month. What are your projection fig what figures do you think we would see as we get our next inflation figures and how will that in one way or the other shape the conversation at the forthcoming monetary policy committee meeting? It remains very important at this time.

[00:23:37]>> Okay. My take is that we should expect a further uh northward movement, a higher uptick in inflation figures. Bear in mind that the inflation figure for March uh was 15.38% and increase from 15.0.

[00:23:52]>> But also the basis for computing inflation is always from the middle of the month to the middle of the next month. So in effect the inflation figure for March was computed between 16th of February and 15th of March which meant that the full impact of the uptick in energy cost had not reflected on price levels. So it is the month it is the April inflation figure that will fully reflect the impact of this uh war on energy prices which has transmitted into food prices and other commodity prices.

[00:24:27]Um so I think we're going to see a m not less than 200 to 300 b um not less than yeah 20 to 30 basis point increase uh in inflation figure if you're talking of 30 basis points you're talking of something in the region of 15 uh 7 or 15.68 68 to 16% uh I think that's we should see something between 15 uh 7 and 16% increase uh inflation figure uh for the month of April. Um so what do I expect the monetary policy committee to do? Uh for me the inflation pressure we are talking of is cost push not demand pull.

[00:25:09]So if it is cost push inflation the solution it will not be to tighten further. If you tighten, you're going to further it's like pouring fuel into an already into fire to point the fire. You're not going to quench the fire by pouring fuel into it. So I don't think the mon committee will consider in tightening as a way of cailing the current deflationary pressure. Uh so I my expectation is that they will allow rates to remain where they are. Um so as to allow the private sector business operators some headroom to even uh continue to borrow and see if they can maintain their productive activities at a time when their energy costs have gone up. So if you also apply the brakes on on monetary monetary rates and tighten so what you're going to see is that you're going to be double going to be double whammy for business operators because you're going to have to borrow at higher cost at the same time when their other operating cost energy cost have also gone up higher. So you would be rather be fing inflation instead of moderating inflation.

[00:26:19]>> All right. Finally uh before I let you go again that just crossed my mind a lot of conversations today I think we've touched on series of boring economic issues but before I let you go I'm taking you back again to what Mr. OAL said uh do you think that um it's possible to uh you know subsidize now that word subsid be very careful address this differentials uh without going back to the kind of policy that we had the other time someone has suggested that um there could be an arrangement I don't know if that that that's workable but really to I want you to tell us again specific interventions the CNG policy what would you say about it? How well is that getting uh you know across to everyone?

[00:27:05]What do we have quick wings that would address the vulnerable ones? That is my concern at the moment.

[00:27:12]>> Okay, very simple. My position is that Nigeria should not contemplate any for subsidy in any in any or queue. Um we can't go back to that era. But that does not mean that there are no windows for government to intervene to moderate the pains Nigerians are going through. I had I talked about uh tax holidays. That's one aspect. Then for the most vulnerable who are not in employment, the government can actually expand the vulnerable uh person's uh list or what they call the poverty list so as to either increase the band of those who are affected who are included in that list of most vulnerable as well as increase the hand out they giving to them. So you can actually match this to individuals who are getting this benefit. So that becomes a and it's also be it's also easier to unwind or pull back when normality is restored in the energy energy energy market. So that but to say the government should either um supply crude to Dangote at at below market prices or uh buy the crude from Dangote and start allocating to retail athletes at a discounted rate. I don't think those things are feasible. They are highly subject to abuse. Of course, there's no almost nothing the government gets involved in that there's not abuse.

[00:28:35]But the level of abuse of subsidy is multiple times higher than what you will experience if the government cuts the people some slack and say, "Look, we're going to give a tax break." Remember that when take tax breaks to they know how much tax you pay. All they just need is tell TVC to say, "Look, for the month of May to the month of September, do not deduct personal tax from TU. That's all I mean it's difficult for anybody to uh to circumvent that or build uh some level of fraud into it because you already have a track record of your payments. And same thing with the poverty register. If they have the poverty register as they claim they do, they cannot say look this poverty register was actually meant for those who are only earning 100,000 or 50,000.

[00:29:20]So let's expand it to those who are earning 100,000. So you can expand that as well as you can also decide you will increase uh the amount you pay to them.

[00:29:28]But the concept of direct subsidy I would not support it.

[00:29:34]>> It's a good way to leave it there. I must thank you so much founder GCEO Carry Assets Management Limited. Thank you for your time on the show today. We appreciate it.

[00:29:42]>> Thank you for having me.

[00:29:44]Great conversation.