Ghana's exit from the IMF Extended Credit Facility program highlights the critical need for structural economic transformation beyond macroeconomic stabilization. While the IMF program has helped achieve currency stability and reduced inflation, the country faces significant challenges including unsustainable energy sector debt, vulnerability to external shocks, and the risk of returning to the IMF due to recurring governance issues. Sustainable economic justice requires moving from stabilization to structural transformation through diversifying the economy, reducing import dependency, strengthening agricultural value chains, and implementing governance reforms including anti-corruption measures and electoral cycle management. The success of this transition depends on maintaining fiscal discipline, investing in productive sectors, and ensuring that economic policies benefit vulnerable populations rather than just macroeconomic indicators.
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Economic Justice: Ghana’s exit from the IMF — challenges, prospects and impacts | (22-05-2026)Added:
Teenage pregnancy is stressful. Oh, it is world war.
Dreams are paused, futures rewritten, and childhood replaced with the heavy responsibility of raising a life.
>> They impregnated her and at the end of the day when she came, she was HIV positive.
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It's a cautionary tale. Your friends will laugh at you at that time because nobody expects you to get pregnant at that time. You get that reactions from the nurses when you go to the ant. Some of you will go like too young to mother on joy news duty bearer responsiveness in terms of responding to the infrastructure needs in terms of teacher availability. We are seeing that there's progress.
We were living in one of the pavilion behind later that we had this new building. Then we now move to the new building.
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A lot has changed after documentary. We had 60 tables and chairs then a 10 bedroomedroom teacher accommodation.
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We applied for the school feeding which will have also helped to in increase the enrollment.
The impact has been great in terms of >> enhancing duty bearer responsiveness in terms of responding to the infrastructure needs in terms of teacher availability. We are seeing that there's progress Welcome back to a special dialogue program put together by action aid as we look at Ghana bringing an end to the current extended credit facility program. What will be the implication for the country Ghana as we exit this program in terms of the challenges and the prospect as well but let me first start with my host if I could use that expression or the convenor of all these discussion action 8 and this county director is my first guest I'm trying to get some understanding from him Mr. John Haw he's a county director of action it for you why this discussion is so critical and very important for us to have as a country works to exit this extended credit facility program with the IMF.
Thank you very much uh George and you put the question right in context and it is only appropriate for us to also acknowledge your August audience.
It is always a cherished opportunity to be speaking to the people of Ghana on very important subjects like this. And so for us at action aid, we have been working within our country strategy paper where we are looking at two core thematic areas to promote economic justice and more importantly climate justice and to that extent we are seeking to um contribute towards Ghana's social economic development to three main pillars. The first one is to promote uh green livelihoods and also to promote women's rights and decent jobs.
And finally to promote active citizenship where we promote gender responsive public services, promote accountability ensuring that citizens are holding their office public office holders accountable for the utilization of resources that has been raised in the name of the people. At the end of the day, the state is more important. And so for this discussion, it is timely because Ghana technically is in the process of exiting the is the enhanced credit facility uh which is a program that we have with the IMF that you know led to some significant funding opportunity for Ghana to help us out of our economic distress.
In this regard, action aid which is a people's centered development organization, women focused where we seek to uh eradicate poverty and contribute towards citizens obtaining their rights, living decent lives and so forth and and so on and so forth. that's also imposed on us and our partners in this case uh GI and a host of academic you know uh uh uh technical experts to discuss what is what are the prospects of Ghana exiting the ECF, what opportunities does exist but more importantly what opportunities bely us or lie ahead of us that we need to pay attention to Most significantly, there's no gain saying that the enhanced credit facility or the IMF program contributed towards supporting Ghana maintain some level of economic successes around our macroeconomic indicators and if you like to some extent micro economics and to that extent action emphasizes the point that there must be a consequential impact of the improvement in the macro economics on the lives of the people on the life of the citizenry. And so to that extent we need to elevate the discussions to look at the macroeconomics and to that extent we as actually are calling for more broader discussions on what do we need to pay attention to? What does the ministry of finance and allied agencies what do the citizens hold government accountable on to to ensure that government does not derail the gains that we have achieved under the microeconomic indicators and for us investing a lot more in gender responsive public services enhancing debates and discussions around social protection and ensuring that the structure of the economy is the structure of the economy is looked at is critical at this point and so as we transverse into the conversation we'll be looking more in detail and in specific >> M I'll be coming more to you to also get some understanding about how do we sustain the gain from the social aspect of it because it is not only about the political economy and then the hard numbers about the statistics but also So what about the social impact? There are social intervention programs as well.
Let me bring in Mrs. Maria Transparency International. I know you've been a strong advocate for Putin spending corruption and all those things, but I'm just asking Transparency International, where do we place the agency now that we are exiting this program? Is is the agency coming in too late or it's never too late? Madam.
>> Oh, thank you very much, George, and good afternoon to your cherished listeners. It's a pleasure to always be here. I believe it's never too late um to bring on board some of these discussions. Very very critical that we talk about it particularly now that we are exiting. So we need to also then identify what are some of the critical issues going forward that can be done to ensure that uh Ghana does not uh go back to the IMF after a very short history of going very short >> this is the 18th time if I if I stand to be corrected >> there for 18 different good times and in each of the instances we have gone there we've gone there based on almost similar factors which I believe the economist in policy credibility talking about policy inconsistency in discipline in our fiscal regime and I can also say sometimes it's as a result of just unnecessary lack of supervision and also enforcement in our regimes and also the issues around elections and the corruption that comes with it. So it's high time that as government has tried from uh the previous government to now ensuring that we have met most of our targets not all I from a governance perspective I can tell you for a fact that we h got in the fact that we wanted a regime that regulates conduct of public offices h they put it in there it never got passed is still I don't know where it is now >> and we need to ensure that some of those regimes are put in place to ensure that we we do a better job at managing our public finance. So we have seen the challenges and most of them have for us have always revolved around public financial management and within this space we've seen a lot of laws. So we say it's not as a result of a lack of the regimes, the policies, but it is just that we as a people have not been able to deal with the issues around implementation of these policies. Making sure that we hold people who are put in political and public spaces to account for ensuring that our economy runs and runs effectively. Uh when you talk about public financial management, the act it also deals with the issues not just of supervision but also raising the resources and regulating them. But then we see that in most of the instances we are going up and then we come back down because there's no discipline in the system. We've seen in recent times the amendments that have come in the that are supposed to ensure that we are regulating the space very well and also putting in place the enforcement regions of or sanctions which hither to two we hadn't seen. Again from a governance perspective we talk about the issues around procurement and the serious infractions that we see before we started. We heard some of the shenanigans that happened in the procurement regime. If you remember in recent past ourselves, Transparency International Ghana and Manassi did this expose where a whole chief executive was buying contracts and selling them at the same time. And so you you realize that the political capture and the inconsistencies in our policy when it comes to procurement is been one of the greatest things and let me say again that in the regime of governance we've seen some very good things happen uh recently where as part of the uh the the IMF requirements were supposed to ensure that we have an interoperable system and for us in the transparency space. We believe those are the key things we should have and they've done a lot of work within the gift mix and also the procurement ensuring that they are linked and so whatever we are buying whatever government decides we need is linked to the gift mix so that we can have very good approval regimes. H we also know that the Ghana the Ghana e procurement system is also on now and is as well interoperable. I don't know how fully it is but at least we can take a box around there that we are doing some good work at promoting transparency within the regime and I'm very sure the IMF is excited that we've been able to do that because the leakages around the sectors were just very >> mad mad it's clear that when it comes to the laws we have it but it's always about the >> political will also as well that is sometimes lacking in trying to check these things when it comes to financial management as well. I mean I'll bring in one person but just to introduce one distinguished person join as a and a development economist professor Ibu Texan as well. He's one of our guests in studio and he would have the last word on this round of questions in terms of the fund program and all those but let me get to the the executive director here of center for extra development that is Africa. Were you surprised that at the heart of this program apart from the de sustainability issues, energy was also very very critical in this whole ECF program. Thank you. Energy sector debt is the largest among most of our debt and >> is a continuous debt and it remains a risk despite we exiting the ECF.
>> So we've exited the extended credit facility. Um we hope to enter into the policy coordination program but energy sector is still a risk today as we speak as at 2026 the government had allocated $1.1 billion that is 15 billion Ghana cities >> anticipating that the energy sector debt will continue and that is a combination of legacy debts that they have to pay down and also uh fuel that they have to purchase to power our our our our energy sector. power plant.
These issues, what does it mean to us even as we exit the ECF?
The comprehensive or accumulative debt from 2023 to 2026 is about IMF themselves had estimated that to be about $9 billion.
>> And let's remember we will speak later about some of these issues on on on the the positives we've experienced recently.
If we are getting foreign exchange earnings from gold, that money is not revenue.
It's foreign exchange earnings. They are not revenue. Let's let's let's pay attention to that.
>> Help us help us on that.
>> Yeah. Foreign exchange earnings. You are talking about you are getting dollars to serve the market demand for dollars. It is not revenue that comes to GR.
>> Let's let's be straightforward with that. While that is very positive and so our current finance minister has done a very good job since he came we could see improvement. The government had a solution which was the energy sector recovery program. We've seen improvement in the collection of those revenues from 940 million I think Ghana cities to about 1.5 billion Ghana cities in 2025 and I think that was quite important also the application of the cash water for mechanism which is monies that we've received we are supposed to pay down our legacy debt and continue to pay our current debt in terms of power generation >> um unfortunately before we went to IMF we were not doing that and that debt had piled up >> what has happened is that The energy sector debt alone if you look at it cumulative and the legacy debt it is more than 20 times the budget for social protection that action a want us to improve or promote. I see >> and this has not gone away. What the government has done which is also positive is that he said let's renegotiate with the independent power producers to reduce the rate at which they sell the power to us and then I think they have also had a very good renegotiation with those if you are not generating power anymore it will not take or pay and some of the IPs had their initial term which is contract term had been expired so we were just renewed and that initial contract term meant that they had recovered their cost. M >> under normal circus if if it was a very well planned contract that particular power plan should have reverted to the government >> but unfortunately the ownership continues to be for the private sector and this time we don't want to go the tick or pay so some of the renegotiation said when you produce then we pay you because already you've been here for 15 20 years already >> and that has also reduced not less than 250 million debt burden on us >> and I think that was a very good job um that was done by the government >> but analytically these things that the finance minister has done the energy sector legacy debt is still there. So as we exit the IMF what we have to do is to continue to pay some of these debt down whilst we continue to pay the existing debt.
Another point that I have to raise is that despite the ECF, >> we need to continue to increase the amount of gas we are getting from our our gas fields >> to reduce the fuel petrol that we purchase to power the power plant because the gas is more cheaper than the petrol.
>> What does it mean for I think I I'll come into what Mary had said and what John had mentioned. What does it mean for us under the ECF? We still have to continue our credibility, our let let me say optimal operations under the government.
What it means is that if we have to ensure that people do their job, we have to continue to ensure we don't have to be under IMF before we ensure people do their job.
>> Mr. Quick one, I mean one thing that this program sought to do was to look at some structural reforms in terms of the energy sector. Have we made any significant progress in dealing with those quote imbalances that always pushes up to see irregular power supply and the debt and all those things. So the problem still persist. Um there are two two side of the coin. So you may have mentioned what we face there the the customer facing side which is our you know power fluctuations that is different from the other side. So you could be producing power, grid code could not be taking all the power. ECG may not be distributing that efficiently. But in terms of structural reforms, the government has put down some measures. One is the private privatization of ECG. Um personally >> privatization or debt collection or >> yeah qualify it about whether they are helping with >> it's called a PSP privatiz power sector privatization program. I shall >> um I may not agree with what the government is currently informing us that they are only doing the last mile.
The last mile >> revenue mobilization collection sorry >> I don't think that is going to solve our structural problem. Our structural problems within the ECG was beyond revenue collection. It was the procurement that they were doing that they didn't need. It was purchasing other things at a cost that we felt it was too expensive. It was some of the estimations of things they need that they were overestimating as well and also their lack of maintenance and lack of responding to issues. So that is the customerf facing side. But when it comes to the financing side, the fact that the government has accepted not just this government, previous government as well that there are inefficiencies in our power sector. We may not just talk about ECG, all other players, VR, Greek, all of them and the IPS as well. And therefore we are allocating $500 million a year just to solve those inefficiencies. Means you are actually approving that there should continue an inefficiency in the sector. Mhm.
>> And so for me the reforms government has proposed whilst they may be positive in the interim it does not change the structure of the problems we are facing >> and without that if we don't change the structure we may exit IMF and I I wish I I mean I don't want to say something that Mario doesn't want to hear we may go back again >> because if those debt pile let me tell you this as those debt pile we draw money from the social protection sector >> to continue to pay those debts and continue to pay IPS to maintain our power >> and that means more schools we have to build more roads in the villages providing certain basic needs we may not be able to provide them adequately because we are paying for inefficiencies in the par let me bring in our development economist a lecturer an economist he wears many hats but today I think he's wearing the hat of an economist I mean prof we are a member of the international monetary fund >> even the USA subscribe itself to scrutiny and all those things first part of the is it really a big deal about whether we go to the fund for policy credibility and whether we are exiting we are not exiting and we cannot manage our economy and homegrown solutions and we can do a black man can do his own thing is it really a big deal prof okay so thank you good afternoon to my co-panelist and then to your viewers um no under normal circumstance it's not a big deal the IMF is like a cooperative did they contribute to it have been formed to try to assist countries to get out of issues that come and if you look at the initial origins of the British institution they just there to support countries especially for the IMF when a country has balance of payment challenges and um they need some support so there's nothing wrong if we go to the IMF um it is when we are not able to manage our finances and our economy that when we go there initially they came with prescriptions we call that the Washington consensus >> so if you had issues and you went there they would tell you go and do this go and do that go and do that after almost two decades of that prescription they noticed and they did a self assessment they noticed that they had failed because the prescriptions that they had brought had worked in Latin America but they would not necessarily work in Africa so ever since there's a sort of in quotes a consensus. So when you find yourself in under stress and you go there, they want you to go and devise your your homegrown solutions >> and then that is what we call a staff level agreement. So they come, they sit down with you, you tell them what you want to do, you know you're in you're in crisis now, you you got yourself there, but we almost every time we know what the solution is. So we sit down with them, we tell them this is what we are going to do. They look at the framework that we are going to adopt. They look at and and the and the and the basic the basic ideology is that you are not going to come back. So do the right things and don't come back. So when they exit, they exit with that promise that we continue to do what has taken us through the reforms and move our economies through stability to transformation.
Because you see at the center of our issues is the lack of structural transformation.
>> Our economy has not transformed to the extent that it could it could be resilient to external shocks and therefore if we go through the reforms and the exits. They're expecting us to continue the reforms maintain the stability and begin to invest in the productive capacity of the economy to transform the economy. For instance, we're import dependent and therefore if your country is import dependent, then it means that any external shock will transfer itself to economy in various ways. I'll give you two main ways.
>> One way is through the exchange rate channel.
>> Because you are import dependent and therefore when there's a shock like we are having in the Middle East now, it transfers to oil prices.
>> Yeah. Now the oil prices means that you are oil importing country and therefore you need more forex to import the oil.
So that puts a pressure on the FX >> the FX >> and it begins to depreciate. Now when it depreciates what it does to you is that because you also import dependent intermediate goods and other finished goods. You need more cities to import those goods. So it brings the diet imported inflation. The increase in the oil prices will will happen at the pump.
>> The pump will transfer that to increase in prices. There's a second round that will affect the transportation first.
The transportation first affect food and then it begins to cause inflation too.
And when inflation is increasing, there's almost everything wrong in the economy now cuz we lose our purchasing power. the government itself will find out that he's spending more than he projected because there's inflation. So if government was buying projected to buy people at four cities and there inflation is five cities government expenditure would increase and if that happens as well we don't raise enough revenue then we move into the fiscal deficit then we borrow and then our debt become unsustainable and then we come to that point where we have to go back to them because we are we have issues and you see >> what happens >> quite often these days is that the external shocks have become much more prevalent. There used to be once 5 years so we could mess up and then when we get something and we we stabilize when external shocks come >> but these days they happy even at the behest of the US president >> because if he makes a decision and he goes out there it affects someone's happening everything I mean >> middle east crisis >> exactly >> and and and therefore >> and therefore we we need to build an economy that is resilient and Um so going to the IMF is not a big deal and don't forget that you don't only go to the IMF for support in terms of um um loans. You go to IMF for technical assistance as well and when they even leave the technical assistance is already there. We always go through that uh person at the central bank of finance are always in touch to there >> the guys at in Washington and they are monitoring whatever we do. There's an African tax office here in Ghana support a tax 3 and all of that out there to support all of that. So they are still there offering a technical assistance and there's nothing wrong if you're a member of the IMF and you see the IMF support. It is the way we mess up >> that is the problem and this time if you find out what the finance minister has done with Ghana is going to sign on to what they call the policy >> instrument and and that's what I'll come to you whether do you see that that as a marriage of convenience because there are some who were worried that if we exit this program if you engage some politician they really had plans for this economy now we have been liberated you know independent part three. They're going to do their own thing and that some see this PCI as another check that would help manage the space especially getting into the election year.
>> The PCI is normally for countries that have gone out of recovery and they are transforming the economy to maintain the stability and move forward.
>> So it's not every country that goes onto the PCI. Ghana is this time show resemblance of some stability. We're always doing the right thing. And you see the the the the the number of policies that were pursued since 2022 23 when it went to the crisis cumulatively has moved economy to this point especially in 2025.
>> The game changer has been the stability of the currency. It brought down our debts. Um it did so many it brought down inflation. So that stability is there but we cannot take that for granted.
And of course once you you get onto the international capital markets boy and you see the the difference between now and previously was that we were not on the ICM previously.
>> So when we messed up it didn't really affect us but you see once you have foreign investors investing their monies into economy they rely on the credit rating agencies >> to give them the forecast of where Ghana is going. Yeah.
>> And as soon as you do that, you need to make sure that you assure the creditors that you are doing the right thing because if they have any hint there, their money is not safe, there will be a capital flow reversal and that itself will cause a depreciation of our currency and then it transfers the problems into the economy. And so the PCI which is a good thing is it is not being driven by the IMF. It's the technical assistance. We are saying as a country that we are not going to go back to the norm where we exit and in less than four years we come back >> and to do that we are going to continue what you've been doing under the reforms as you exit >> but these are the solutions to our problems this is where we want to go and so we want you to go and sit back as IMF monitor what you've committed to do >> and then do an assessment every six months and then tell the whole world that yes Ghana promise to remain stable. They are pursuing the policies that will continue that stability. So investors chill things are going to work well.
That is what the PCI is doing just to give you the credibility and they are going to monitor. So then if the investors now are not too sure of what is going to happen because from our history we have a past where we mess up after we leave the program then this becomes like an instrument of assurance >> to the creditors that this is Ghana and this is what Ghana wants to do and there are countries that have done Rwanda has done it some countries have done it >> so Moldova also recently Moldova recently signed up to this PCI program but prof I'll be coming back to you about sustaining the gains and also whether some people have argued that our biggest test will be this election year in terms of us managing the gains and sustaining the gains. But if you have just joined us, this is our special direct program put together by action aid as we look at as we exit the current IMF program and go to this PCI. How do we manage or sustain this gains to ensure that indeed every gun out there feels the stability that we are talking about? Ghana's exit from this ECA program challenges and prospect is put together by the action. Let me get to the uh country director for action aid and and and in the corporate world anytime an organization wants to restructure sometime the biggest corporates are the workers in the larger economy also say that fiscal consolidation social spending you know and all those things suffers a lot.
moving forward for you. What are the proposals putting forward to government to say that now that we have achieved the stability in everything don't forget about the social economy.
Thank you very much. I think this is um a very good question.
And so from where we sit as development actors, >> we are more concerned about the impact of austerity.
So if you look at traversing all through this number of years in the implementation of the IMF program, our critical concern has been the impacts of all that in terms of Ghana school feeding program which is a social protection mechanism. We are concerned about the con the consequences of all these policies on the resource poor.
If you look at the informal sector in Ghana, we are adequately informed by data that majority of them are women.
>> You talk about the kay, you talk about the food, the chop bars, you talk about hairdressers and the saloo and so on and so forth.
In the program, we cut spending.
>> The more and more you cut spending and increase taxes, what happens is that you are indirectly deepening inequality from where we sit as social development actors because you are dependent a lot more on increases in value added tax and that is a regressive tax mechanism.
Majority of the people are in informal sector and so you are taxing them more than the rich and so there is a mismatch and when you do a lot more of that you deepen the cracks of the resource poor people and so the going forward we are encouraging government a lot more to invest in the productive sectors of the economy. There's the need to look at the green livelihood sector. Renewable energy technologies is emerging. My friend Hoy >> or Bequ was talking a lot more about the impact of the energy sector depths the inefficiencies on the economy. And so the more and more you are relying on taxation as a mechanism to boost revenue mobilization which is a critical requirement under the ECF >> also does mean there has to be mechanisms to deal uh address the issues around uh the vulnerable sectors of the society and therefore over reliance of microeconomics alone and figures is not sufficient in protecting the dignity of the resource poor people and therefore there's a need for government to even look at the h productive sectors such as manufacturing boosting ag the agro industry sector >> agriculture is the main state of Ghana and so action did a research two years ago >> and we found out that a lot more of the actors in the agricultural value chains are a lot more active the more and more the value chains are strengthened. So for example now we are talking about the situation we have in Ghana where there's increased production in the agriculture sector but the price of rice the price of agro products are going down >> if you are monitoring the media landscape you would have realized the farmer associations are calling on government >> and as a matter of fact the president >> to intervene and see how to address and so more and more there has to be more spending And so we have some little challenges with how we overtly depend on the IMF and that's why I differ a a little bit from what um Prof was talking about.
>> Okay, just just a quick one in one breath. I get the social network making an argument about we turning outside for support. But when it comes to revenue mobilization locally as well, it's a huge challenge.
>> Yes, >> we are not. How do we >> deal with that challenge? Is it about the efficiency in the collection or hiking the rates? Fantastic. It's a multiple of factors.
One of it is how progressive is your tax in the country. We argue look there are a lot more companies that are not paying the requisite taxation to government.
Beyond that government is and you know economists will argue where we give a lot of tax exemptions.
But if you value the contribution of the tax exemptions given to these wellendowed companies v a v the multiplier effect of government rather receiving those taxes and investing in the social sector.
Our analysis has proven that the benefits has not been so consequential.
The argument we have has always been that the companies will employ people.
But how many people did the companies employ? Are we doing are we monitoring and assessing the impact of tax exemption mechanisms? Secondly, collection action aid has been contributing significantly in increasing awareness about civic responsibility.
The media has a critical role in broadening understanding for citizens to be more well aware. GI has a critical role. That's why we are here with them.
>> Yeah. How do we ensure that corruption is a lot more unattractive so that the more and more citizens feel that the tax that I'm paying is going to go a lot more to be prudently managed invested in gender responsive public services expanding the economic base so that women a lot more will have early childhood development centers close to the 24-hour economy markets that they are producing >> and that they can have a sales place to to to have their children properly educated once they go into productive activities. This is the only way I am emphasizing that the more we focus on the productive sector where we emphasize women participation.
For example, government says it's going to establish the women bank.
>> Where are we on the establishment of the women bank? Because studies in h micro finance points to the fact that women are more responsible >> in terms of paying back their loans in terms of investing their funding. Now the multiplier effects of women's income.
Statistics proves goes beyond what men do in terms of their incomes. It benefits household nutrition. It enhances you know contribution to the local economy in terms of how they invest, how they buy and sell, how they engage and that is why we emphasize agro industry, the agriculture value chains, food crop agriculture and the more and more we have food and we expand the marketing you know avenues to the Sahilian regions where we can we al we apart from eh buffer stock also create channels for processing, adding value and so on and so forth. Why is the gold board adding value to the gold that they buy? It is to increase the economic value and the economist will tell you that >> in the same way the more and more we process our vegetables. The more and more we are here to fight to sanitary standards, the more and more will get interested in the organic vegetables, the cabbages that our women in the Bunu region that women in Bulgatanga in the Via area.
>> Recently the tomato difficulties scarcity that we had in the market was occasioned by what Bkina Faso undertaken some policies.
If you look at our vegetative cover, our soil and so on and so forth, we share similar characteristics with bikinas, >> especially northern Ghana, upper east region, the upper west region, we share some consenous characteristics and the more and more our research, our government invest in tomato production, creating avenues where you know the tomato is bought, processed, packaged and sold in the urban communities. I can tell you that we'll get a lot more self self sufficient and then government will tax a lot more in these value chains and that is the only way we can have this our homegrown economic >> working let me bring you madam mad I know that there's always a portion for the uh non-governmental organizations and the social networks when it comes to the IMF but what has been your level of engagement with the fund in trying to enshrine I know something like that in the program in terms of the anti-corrupt corruption and good governance instrument in the progression to ensure that whilst we try to get the numbers right we shouldn't forget about corruption and its impact on even derailing all these gains madam >> exactly >> yeah certainly when when John was speaking before I get to that I just wanted to say growing up in the north h one of the things we saw with the value addition issue is the irrigation Exactly.
>> And the dams we had, for instance, in Navo, we had the tono irrigation dam and the type of tilapia we had to eat at the time. You had huge tilapia which was straight from the river. And there was no any artificial thing, not the artificial ones we see today.
>> Yes. And I remember via where we used to go and uh do rice farming and on a Saturday uh we as children you couldn't stay at home because all the food was taken to the farm and so you had to be there to benefit and so you didn't you couldn't stay home >> and these are the things we should be talking about to add again to that. uh we we see women adding a lot of value when it comes to this discussion because they are the producers of the uh vegetables and others where a lot of value can add on to bring up uh women inme sector and when we do this I believe because we constitute a greater population of the uh country more than 50% we would be definitely making significant gains in the economy and we would not have to go back cap in hand begging the IMF to come and put discipline back into our economic governance uh system. To answer your question, the IMF has been very forthcoming with their engagement with civil society, I must say. And civil society's engagement revolves around the economic governance platform which brings together various civil society organizations who work on the subject matter of governance anti-corruption and some academics as well and they have been broad. In the beginning we pushed and they've always come back. H we would have preferred more >> h engagements to ensure that the issues we are talking about when it comes to accountability. Ensuring that public office holders are accountable in every realm. Ensuring that citizens play a critical role in shephering and superintending over the uh fund. uh were not as we would have wanted but they have always created opportunity.
Sometimes uh we cannot also fault them.
We've seen uh instances where they have scheduled meetings almost at the end. I remember the first instance we we we came up with a statement to indicate that we had not met them even when they had issued a statement. But that was a lesson for them and going forward they continue to engage and we made a lot of input. We did a lot of position papers which we gave to them and they also pushed. So uh the issue of uh some of the targets when it comes to governance and accountability were facilitated by civil society. Uh I can talk of one which hasn't happened that is the conduct of public officers bill. H we wanted it to be part of the uh prow issues exactly trial actions.
Unfortunately in the first instance it didn't happen but it it came in during the review process and government committed to it. That's the previous government if I may say unfortunately they didn't see to it happening. H it came back again and last year we heard it will be passed. I remember the minister of finance indicating during the budget uh reading that it was going to parliament by December. We've since heard the president himself, the current president uh during the Sona talk about the conduct of public officers bill coming to uh being passed. And that is very important for us because we see a lot of issues around accountability around transparency not happening because we have uh the issues around inter and intra elite bargains that go on to affect the implementation of policy and also then erod the gains we have made. And because we do not want to usually see this happen again, we are talking about them and engaging. They've done we we if we are giving percentages perhaps we can say they've engaged civil society up to 60 and 70% of the time on the issue and the subject matter of h corruption and how we were able to embed this into h IMF um the current one we we see a lot of things that happened around that area they they talked about procurement >> and how we can digitalize and then make interoperable our systems. And I mentioned earlier that one of the things that has happened within this uh IMF um bailout has been the fact that they have pushed government beyond just speaking to the issues but making our systems to be interoperable. again as to whether the structural and the systemic issues around uh making sure we go around all the systems we have put in place works for us going forward will be for all of us to monitor and ensure that government is disciplined around this issue.
>> Let me bring you Mr. I mean for you, what are some of the painful and the tough things we need to undertake in the energy sector to try and bring about that real stab? We talked about stability in the economic space, but what about stability in the energy space? What are some of the tough actions or tough measures that we need to undertake to try and see that synchronization in all the sectors?
Economy is stabilizing. What about the energy sector?
>> Thank you so much. I think we have to also lay down some of the context. Um as mentioned when it comes to the structural changes that in the energy sector we have not achieved that yet.
>> Um uh if you look at ECG for instance and this is important because of the debt that led to IMF. part of the reason we went to IMF because our energy sector debt had ballooned to the level that if you combine to the the the total debt it was highly unsustainable. But then the critical question is how does the extractive sector also come in? Our oil sector was generating some significant amount but this year or last year it wasn't. So um if you look at that we've had a a steady decline since 2019 about 22% yearonear decline when it comes to our production in the oil and gas sector. The reason why that particular sector is important is the gas feed our power plants >> and the revenue that comes from the sector could also be part of the revenues that contribute to energy sector reforms as well but that hasn't really uh done so. So we we we still have issues with that. But let's look at the ECG related issues. If you want to change the structure personally, >> I think that the PSP suggested by the government may not change the structure.
I think you you divide the market into different segments. You allocate it to private sector. You can continue to maintain ECG as a private sector. It doesn't have to be solely private sector. If for instance Ghana infrastructure investment fund, mineral income investment fund wants to come in finance a company to take part of that particular segment you should do that you you what you do so if you divide the sector into like 15 I understand the market will be divided into about 15 out of that 15 you can get the most difficult areas that like the ministries and others to ECG because that one we know that if you give it to a private sector there may be a bigger issue when it comes to collection of these revenues. I believe if we are handing over those segment to um uh the private sector, it should include procurement, it should include investment, it should include maintenance, it should include uh customer relations, everything.
>> You're stripping everything then it's total privatization of >> total privatization. But then you you >> and that is what you you recommend. That is what will solve the problem >> because what you've done is that you and and you don't have to you don't you don't have to you don't have to >> always ensure that you know people think about security reasons there is no security reasons we've got will come after you >> we've got companies in the UK that are private sector providing power to the extent that if you don't want your provider you can change it the next day >> I don't have security >> what >> because what you do is that you may have a regulatory body that is strengthened to regulate these companies and you give them a very clear marching orders in the contract that this is the asset we've handed over to you. The asset is worth $500 million. We've calculated the the cables, the transformers and everything.
This is what we are handing over to you.
What you do is that you structure it over 10 years, 5 years renewable. So the first five years because I cannot come and invest my money about 500 million and then tell me I have only 5 years when I know I may not be able to recover. So what you do is that about 10 to 15 years and you make it 5 years renewable. If the first 5 years you have to check all the the the the the is the the the infrastructure every indicators you've given them and then ensure that they are actually working with those indicators.
So that is one aspect of it that I believe it will help when it comes to the structural changes that we are seeking for. Number two, the cash waterfall mechanism currently that is being enforced. I think under this government as I said the collection has increased and I think they have resorted back to uh the payment uh when it comes to how the cash for mechanism was supposed to do. uh 2025 we had 1.7 billion uh cities and I think that means that ECG revenue collection had increased that shows some positive indication but we know that the expected collection ECG can do is more than 2 billion >> a year also we have the generation cost as I said the renegotiation of the contract has been good and also um energy sector recovery generates some fiscal relief but it's not enough it's 0.4% 4% of GDP, it is not enough to solve the problem. You have $10 billion debt, legacy plus current debt. And if you are generating that money from energy sector recovery levy and uh let me let me link that to what John said.
Energy sector recovery le levy is regressive.
>> Mhm.
>> Because it's it's on petroleum product, >> right?
>> It's on people who are poor buying at the same price of people who are rich.
>> So it's also regressive as well. And it means if you continue to increase that particular levy, it means you are making people more poorer.
>> That is one thing as well. Especially when you don't even have public transport system that is more equal and and and allow easy easy transportation.
>> The other point I wanted to raise was the fact that >> we've always talked about the gold. Let me say that in this country most of our reforms have been heavily dependent on commodity performance. And I think I'm sounding this to the finance minister as well. Whilst he has done very well, a lot of the reforms we are currently enjoying now is based on commodity performance and I know he's also trying to restructure things. He's trying to build a power plant which I I felt is one of the best. He's decided to bring the heritage fund down to invest here.
But I'm I'm always sounding a warning.
It is very good for me and even I'm a member of PAK. We've actually said it is not bad but we want a clear restrictive measures on where they can invest. It has to be invested in a commercial venture not going to build agenda 111 not going to build schools because that money is for future generations. So if you are investing and getting interest on it that is what we want to see. So he wants to bring that and reinvest in the energy sector as well. So you could see the government has positioned the energy sector as one of the pillars to reduce our potential or our risk in terms of going back to IMF. And if you want to do 24-hour economy you need to keep your power on. So those measures I think they are good but as I said our reforms are still dependent on commodity performance today. Should gold and oil price slump >> unexpectedly I think we may be doomed and as we know most of the minerals revenues Moscow mining sector has performed very well. The minerals revenue and the oil revenues have been dedicated to the Acarakumasi expressway.
Should there be a slam in oil revenue to less than $50 per barrel, it means we cannot complete Akarakumasi expressway as we want to.
>> I'll come to professor Texan because I want to get his thought on about the threats to this recovery. The bit about the election year as well and for you what should be the critical focus of this PCI program because the board is yet to approve. I don't know the the fine content of it but I'll be coming to you probably because it'll be a time for us to take a little break and this is the action aid special national dialogue on the IMF program the challenges that is ahead of us with the lessons we've learned as well and whether we talk about stabilizing the economy what do we mean in terms of ensuring that everyone benefit from this is the action aid special dialogue on Ghana's exit from this current program the challenges prospects and impact be right back After this break.
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Welcome back from the break. This is the action aid uh dialogue on the ECF program, the Ghana program with International Monet Fund. As we exit the program and as you look at the the challenges, the prospects and the impact on the Ghanaian economy, I'm engaging John and he is the country director for action aid. Mrs. Marada, she is with the transparency international Ghana sang she he is the executive director for the center for extracted development also the development economist professor Ibu Texan he is our guest in the prof. I was trying to find out from you the biggest threats and the test to the stability that we are enjoying right now. Is it the upcoming elections or is it the unforeseen external shocks that we can talk about development in the Middle East Mr. talking about let's add USA to it President Trump because tomorrow it can change everything. Let's talk about Ebola. Let's talk about hunter virus and all these things. What is the biggest threat >> to this stability that we enjoyed as a result of this program?
>> Thank you George. Um the the biggest threat is external shocks. Um you see as we speak the world is becoming increasingly globalized >> and therefore it is no longer due fears.
Anything that happens however remote that country is once it has an impact that transmits through the global economy we are going to face the shocks.
So the greatest um um um threat to our stability is always going to be the external shocks and that is why it is expedient for us to build a resilience because it's only when you are resilient that you withstand the shock.
The fiscal space is there now. So you see that >> when the oil prices were increasing the government has reduced margins >> and it has not transmitted that's the residence we are talking about >> but it is still very fragile at this stage as the fund leaves and so that is there and that I've told I've just mentioned before that we have no control over and becoming much more frequent than we expect >> so it's becoming much more expedient for us to make sure that our economy is resilient and resilience is built over time. It is not a one-off event.
The resilience would also depend on how we quickly restructure our economy from an economy that is import dependent to economy that would look within depend on a domestic economy, production, consumption and all of that. And some of these decisions are very difficult political decisions that have been to be made. Apart from the economic decisions about let's do this, let's do that.
There are also decisions that a country has to make as a country that do we have to encourage a consumption of domestic goods and how can we advance policy to ensure that? Why should members of parliament be wearing suits and all of those things to parliament? country decree that every member of parliament that comes to parliament should be in a clothing that has been made in Ghana so that Ghanaians will see our law makers going Ghanaian in their dressing and that could trigger an increase in the demand not only for fabrics that are made in Ghana but also for artisans that make the fabric into clothing for us to wear.
>> That is key. We also need to make a decision as a country individually that when we are given alternatives, you should always choose the made in Ghana products.
>> At times you go to national events and the >> and the food and the snacks that are served there.
>> At times to be honest with you, I see imported water as some of the national events. I'm like really at the highest level you are serving imported water.
>> Yeah. I mean Ghana cannot come out there to ban importation of products >> but we need to increase the awareness that if you are import dependent then you're also causing the problem. It's not only the politicians problem we are part of the problem. I mean when I was doing my page I had a Chinese friend who every time went out for shopping we go to the Chinese aisle the Asia and go and pick. I dare not go to the the Africa because the things that are too expensive because our our exporters are not competitive. But you could see that if we begin to demand the goods that are made in Ghana. I mean John was talking about the fact that we've done so well with agriculture output. The price are declining. It shouldn't be the case.
Look, Ghanaian farmers are always the ones that bear the brunt of all our misplaced priorities.
We encourage them to produce more yet when they produce more they get next to nothing for their produce. So if I'm a farmer you bring me any alternative that will let me increase my productivity I'll not do it.
>> But doesn't the back stops with government the school feeding program is a huge avenue to say that buy local rice >> and kum in his wisdom set up the Ghana food distribution company. Do you know what he was doing with that was allowing Ghanaians to walk into a distribution joint and buy made in Ghana products from the farmers and the Ghana food distribution company was assuring farmers of the prices of their produce.
So then I could go for a low and know that when I increase my output maybe a kilogram of what I'm producing is 20 cities. So I know so the more I produce the more money I make. But when there are no assured prices then that link is broken. So when you encourage increase in agricultural production, the farmers are the ones that suffer for that because the prices almost drop.
However, it is the middlemen and women who make all the gains from the toss of the farmers. So if we think that the middlemen and women are making it, why can't government support even have a PPP private sector participation to distribute food in this country?
go to the farm gates, pick the food, send them to distribution doors all over the country for public sector workers to walk in there after close of work to go and pick the rice, tomatoes at prices that are affordable and also that prices that assure the farmers of a decent income. Look, the majority of the poor people, those who are into agriculture are poor.
>> When a person is poor, productivity is the last thing on his mind. And that is the reason why we did we were not able to develop agriculture to the point where we are now going to add value to move into agro processing industrialization and then all of a sudden from agree we went to what about >> that is the transformation that we need.
We need >> to ensure that agricultural output is higher value addition for us to release reduce our reliance on certain imported products that we are better at producing here. But because our domestic firms do not have the capacity and environment to do that, some domestic firms even decide to import what they have labeled with their dome their their company names in Ghana from from China >> Paken >> Pak from I mean you mentioned the external this what about >> the elections 2028 elections we've seen the cycle and I know you've done you've told us in the lecture hall and all those things where >> the election year cycle we see everything is stable they get election year things deterate we go for a fun program. What can we be doing civil society groups the academia as well to ensure that those safeguard measures are put in place to ensure that we don't miss it this time around because there are clear examples there about what happens in election year >> the political vision cycle is one of the issues I've I've said it again I'm not against democracy but I think that the democracy is too expensive for our economy I'll give you an instance we have come up with a public procurement act and framework that legitimizes corruption that you cannot take people to court products that government should procure at X isn't produced is procured at 10x so if there are four items the government receive four items the GDP is high it doesn't produce any jobs the jobless growth that we having is part of reason is the procurement yet people would get away with it because they are going according to the regulation. I'm happy that we have the value for money office now and law.
Every year the government should publish the value of items that will be procured have a low a base and then a maximum. No public institution should purchase any item within that range beyond that. And therefore that will help the minister of finance apart from his commitment controls to also bring down the expenditure of government for the same amount of goods that we purchase anyway.
Right? Democracy is expensive for us because why do we go to elections every four years? Why do we go for district level elections every four years and it ends up being every two years? We are trying to make what the US is doing. And you see that economy has gone through over 150 years of tried this democracy.
We took on too much. Look at the size of parliament. I've always mentioned that we don't need more than 100 members of parliament.
>> They are there to make laws. They are not development agents.
Our ministries and departments and agencies are the development agents.
They are lawmakers. Why should we saddle ourselves with a small economy like Ghana having over 270 members of parliament?
>> This is two and so the democracy is expensive. Every two years we are doing a national election whether it's a presidential or parliamentary and then district level elections. Why should we put ourselves through this when we need money to support social >> sector in this economy education health >> and support agriculture? the monies that we use for these elections could have made a difference to avoid poor people.
>> I've advocated that look let's have one president for seven years.
>> People come out with arguments that what if the person is bad?
>> Do we make bad choices as a country?
>> Yes.
>> So if we go if we go to make that bad choice >> we'll have to live with it seven years.
That is case that even that is the case we should have institutions that are working to prevent that bad leader from having his way >> because all our presidents have had two terms every day.
>> Yeah.
>> 8 years. Did you need to do an election a re-election >> maybe that will be changing but let me bring maybe that will be chang >> we we are trying to practice a democracy that we don't have resources to fund.
That is the point I'm making >> and that's what feeds into the over but but m I mean going forward as you try and wrap up this discussion safeguarding these gains the there's the social bit as well for you what do you think needs to be done in safeguarding the gains that we have that would tell everybody out there that we can manage our economy even though there could be slips where we need external support First, I like this dimension of the role our election cycle contributes towards messing our economic indicators and statistics. And I'd like to contribute to what Prof. said that we have to be intentional in disrupting the political business cycle.
And I further want to challenge the president >> who won on the mantra of reset >> that the political business cycle in Ghana itself needs a reset.
>> And what that mean is that the time for business as usual in this election cycle >> should not be countenanced not only by the president himself but even we as ordinary citizens. What are the benchmarks? We have a lot of civil society organizations that monitor during elections. What do we monitor?
The media foundation of West Africa should not only resign itself majorly on monitoring what happens in the media landscape in terms of hate speeches. But we need to be able to also define some benchmarks to find out how is government assessing itself in terms of how it is reigning in or restraining itself from recklessness reckless spending >> during election uh cycle and I think I want to make that and make it forcefully. Secondly, another important dimension >> has to do with the IMF itself.
>> Like I was I attempted to make that point but time affected us when Prof was talking. M >> the IMS itself should learn to limit itself from taking keen interest in developing benchmarks that will hold our government help us to hold our governments accountable in terms of recklessness >> in spending during elections.
But equally very important to me from civil society is the fact that the structure of the economy >> can be transformed. I don't know why this continues to be an arbitrus on the neck of our finance public finance managers in Ghana or if you like the ministers of finance because look if you take tourism alone George tourism holds a big promise he's talking about just even dressing >> can you imagine that if we even though I'm an advocate for civil liberties and people's rights >> but promoting locally produced >> goods >> more says like a mantra >> we do not have an operational mechanism >> so recently we're talking Wednesday smokes >> I ask you a question what is the operational framework >> of even government to hold itself accountable to that policy >> and so we need to hold ourselves accountable >> finally >> from where we sit as action We remain committed to advocating economic justice.
>> Economic justice to the extent that look if you look at Ghana's employment sorry e democratic statistics more than half of Ghana's population is youthful. Are you aware of that?
>> Less than 25 years >> and what that means is that unemployment going forward is going to be a critical big problem for government. Therefore, pension funds could be redirected investing renewable energy transition to ensure that the value chains in promoting green clean energy is properly deployed in terms of creating jobs for young people to be able to >> and get employment in the >> bringing mama as you try and wrap up time is not our biggest friend here but in two minutes and for you the the bit about how do we manage these gains going forward. But now that we are going for a PCI program and all from your part in in two minutes we can be very very grateful madam.
>> Great. So for me I believe that in h Prof talked about ada issues but I believe the cracks of the matter is around political financing. If we are able to deal with political financing which then entails in comes engages the issues around campaign finance, we would be able to do a lot of work because it will be dealing with the issues of corruption which have affected political will and our presidents over time have not exhibited any of those very well.
when it comes to dealing with um uh issues of accountability, we need to see a regime where and and fortunately for us, this president in his recent agenda is proposing a constitutional review and the constitutional review committee has made a lot of recommendations which I I believe if we all work with would be good. The president initially indicated he would not be changing anything significantly from it. Now we hear there is a paper, a government position paper that is going to be issued.
>> Whatever it is, we believe without a doubt that we need to change this cycle.
And so when we have elections that h have their turnaround time being 3 months like we see in Kodiva, we see in other countries, we would be able to substantially reduce the cost of elections and also be reducing the amounts politicians need to execute these elections there in h getting uh democracy or reducing the electoral in discipline in the spending to the barest minimal. I believe that if we do that we will be making gains. Again we need to be able to regulate the issue around asset declaration and do it quickly with the conduct of public officers bill which talks about issues around conflict of interest. It speaks to asset declaration and also talks about regulating public sector gift the culture of gifts in the public sector.
How do we do that quickly so that the president can then synchronize this with the conduct h of the conduct he prepared for his appointees? Then we can also have them being sanctionable not just administratively but taking people to court and ensuring that they are dealt with. Then finally for me in the procurement cycle where again elections take the the procurement around issues around procurement should be regulated very well and I see it in again some of the changes we are trying to make. Let's make single sourcing an exception >> h to what we do as a people. We will procure that is important but let us not procure intentionally making the cycle very expensive and then also ensuring that people who are not uh procurement experts are or contractors are benefiting a minute just as we wrap up then stay >> the energy sector is key this exit and um I just want to say three three four things we are enjoying microeconomic stability now but which of them >> whether as we move out of IMF is it going to be is it still the price and volumes gold price price and volume of gold or is it really reform related I think we have to move from the price and volume to more of a reform related also uh we've we've had a sovereign credit rating improved >> but as I said all this if there is a this is good for our borrowing in the new in the near future >> but remember that once there is a a price slump in the commodities >> these same rating agencies will slip and tell Ghana that our outlook is now negative if we have a slip in that >> and then the diversification we need to diversify away from the extractives >> whilst it is good revenue we need to build agrop processing as pros said we need to build uh manufacturing and even the same the same extractives we need to add value to them before we export and the last bit I want to say is that >> these gains we've made whilst as we exit IMF what are the distributional outcomes of that and the question I pose is that the inflation, the currency stabilization and reserves, the growth >> and all that, it looks better.
>> But the question is to a market woman, >> Mhm.
>> a young graduate looking for work >> in terms of an informal worker, their daytoday might not have changed even despite the macro story that we have.
Rough, >> I give you a minute to wrap up the economy.
>> Follow up to what he said. Yes, their lives haven't changed because the success that we are talking about here is a success of stabilization >> not structural transformation. Right?
>> So now we need to move to the face of structural transformation and it will depend on whether we continue to maintain the fiscal discipline will depend on whether we continue to deepen the structural reforms. But if we do that and we begin to diversify our production and our exports, we begin to strengthen domestic production >> and revenue mobilization and we avoid depth driven growth strategies will be on that path that we want Ghana to be and will not return.
>> Mr. I give you 30 seconds. It's your legs that this discussion is being had that is action aid on this dialogue on the IMA program. 30 seconds you have the last word. Thank you very much, George.
Um, let me emphasize that action aid will continue to advance and create platforms like this for more broader discussion aimed at contributing towards the policy discourse and supporting government to be more intentional >> contract >> in terms of how it continues to advance the points we are made we are making here. For example, restructuring the economy, >> moving and consolidating the gains that we have made in the macroeconomics.
We're expanding that towards the macro level and ensuring >> that we are promoting economic justice, inclusive policy formulation that has the people of Ghana, the resource poor people at the center of it such that production in the food crop industry will expand, processing will increase, government will in then have the opportunity to tax and contribute towards generating and enhancing revenue. And thank you so much. And that is the country director of actions. This was our special program on the exit of the current IMF program the challenges the prospect put together by action as you heard there John. He's the country director of action aid. Mrs. Mariada he is with the transparency international Ghana sim he is the executive director for center for extractive development Africa and also our professor that is able Texan he was in our studio here to bring us the economic perspective of all these arguments and development this has been our special program dialogue put together by action aid on the IMF program my name is George Jaffrey I was your host have a great Hey, heat.
Hello, my name is Pamela from customer service.
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