It's Gonna Happen...

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]So, Bitcoin, we're still in this kind of middle ground where we're above the 200-week moving average, but we're below the 50-week moving average. So, we're not in a bull market, but we're not at the bear market lows as such, okay? So, we're in that weird middle ground territory right now, and this bear flag or this channel that Bitcoin has been in is starting to get very prolonged. You can't go in a channel forever and expect it to be as valid if we eventually break down. The longer that you go sideways in a channel, the more likely it's probably going to get invalidated and the measured move isn't going to play out as expected. So, we're getting to a point now where this channel's length is exceeding the actual move down itself. This actual accumulation period here on Bitcoin is getting so long that there is a chance that the measured move doesn't play out. of people are expecting the measured move to play out and Bitcoin goes into the 40,000 region, but we have been consolidating very very nicely, and it's been very prolonged. We've been consolidating now for a very long period of time. The move down should have happened already if we were going to get that move down. Now, I still believe that Bitcoin should come [snorts] down to the 200-weekly moving average at some point this year.

[00:01:28]I still believe we'll hit it on the dot.

[00:01:31]Now, we were a hair away, and I still classify that as a hit, even though it was a little hair away, but I think it would be really bullish if we could come back down, retest the 200-week, and add some confirmation that would then, you know, really give the sideline capital the green light to FOMO in, um and to really start doubling down at those lows. So, I'm not necessarily saying that we're going to go all the way down to 40K or 30K like some people are saying we will based off this move, but I do believe we'll at least come down and retest the low range. Now, it doesn't really matter to me because I loaded up down at 60k, 61k, 62k anyway.

[00:02:11]So, it doesn't really mean much difference to me. All I'm doing here is I'm laying out my base case, which is that some point this year, probably Q3, I do see Bitcoin coming back down to the 200 week. Not only will we form a double bottom, but we'll also get a bullish divergence, and then I would see a really big bounce coming out of this year, coming out of the midterms into next year. Especially, guys, if the S&P 500 sneezes.

[00:02:39]What we've got to bear in mind is Bitcoin is being heavily propped up at the moment by this glorified run on the S&P 500. I mean, this has been a historic run.

[00:02:51]This has been unprecedented.

[00:02:53]And I've been going back and I've been trying to backtest it.

[00:02:56]There hasn't been many times where the S&P 500 has had this level of a run in terms of consecutive green candle weeks.

[00:03:05]You've got 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 consecutive green candle weeks.

[00:03:17]That is astonishing. That does not happen very often, and it looks like we could just keep going up to be quite frank with you.

[00:03:23]I've been looking at the Nasdaq. That looks like it's got another 30% move to the upside potentially this year.

[00:03:29]They're all in massive breakouts. The stock market's looking like it's going to have a blow-off top here, and that's what's propping Bitcoin up.

[00:03:37]Had it not been for the S&P 500 being at 7,500 right now, Bitcoin would probably be making new lows. Bitcoin would probably be in the 50k, maybe even 40k region if the S&P 500 kept curling down.

[00:03:51]But fortunately, earnings have been great with the stock market. We've had de-escalation with the geopolitical situation, and that's led to the S&P 500 skyrocketing, and that's allowed Bitcoin some breathing room in what should be a very negative and bearish year for Bitcoin.

[00:04:10]Midterm years are typically extremely bearish, and the fact the S&P 500's been going for a monumental run has allowed Bitcoin some breathing room, so it hasn't, you know, crashed as hard. But, with that said, okay? If the S&P is just to have a modest 20% correction towards the end of the year, Bitcoin's going to get hit really, really hard. If the S&P 500 sneezes, Bitcoin will catch the flu.

[00:04:37]Bitcoin will catch the plague, the hantavirus, the Andes virus, whatever you want to call it, Ebola. That's what Bitcoin will get. So, that's my base case on Bitcoin. I wanted to start off with Bitcoin just because I haven't really given an update in probably a week or two now on my stance with BTC.

[00:04:55]But, yeah, things are looking decent, I guess, but at the same time, it is quite concerning how little Bitcoin has gone up given the fact the S&P 500 is in a unprecedented It's in an unprecedent unprecedented bull run.

[00:05:14]And yet, Bitcoin's struggling to even hit 100K.

[00:05:17]I mean, it hasn't even hit 90K.

[00:05:20]So, that is a little bit concerning, I've got to be honest, because historically speaking, Bitcoin's the first mover.

[00:05:28]Historically speaking, Bitcoin makes the first move, and then the S&P 500 follows.

[00:05:35]That's because Bitcoin is the most liquid asset out there. It's open on weekends, you can buy and sell it really quick.

[00:05:42]It's really, really liquid.

[00:05:44]So, what you what used to happen was you could foresee the S&P 500's move by looking at Bitcoin because Bitcoin would move early.

[00:05:54]And then you could say, "Okay, Bitcoin's moving. Maybe the S&P is about to make a move."

[00:05:59]I'm not saying Bitcoin caused the S&P 500 move. I'm just saying there was a correlation there um with Bitcoin moving first.

[00:06:07]So, you can go back and you can look at the tariff crash and you can look at when Bitcoin made its all-time high.

[00:06:17]That was in May 2025.

[00:06:20]And you can go and you can look at the S&P 500 and you can see when that made its all-time high and it was actually in June.

[00:06:29]All right?

[00:06:30]It was the end of June.

[00:06:32]So, the S&P 500 was lagging Bitcoin by about a month back then.

[00:06:39]But it's completely and utterly gone off course. It's completely gone off course. You know, they were both on the same road going the same route.

[00:06:49]And then all of a sudden Bitcoin just went right off course and the S&P just kept going up.

[00:06:54]So, you got to ask yourself, "Why is this the case?

[00:06:58]Why has Bitcoin gone off course and yet the stock market keeps going up?"

[00:07:05]And I think there's multiple reasons, but the reason which stands out the most to me is the 4-year cycle. Had we have not been in a bear market year for Bitcoin, a traditional bear market year for Bitcoin, the year after the post-halving year, had we have not been in that specific calendar year, Bitcoin would probably be at all-time highs right now.

[00:07:30]But perception is reality when it comes to Bitcoin at the moment.

[00:07:34]And I don't care what you think about the 4-year cycle in terms of the halving.

[00:07:39]I personally don't think the halving matters that much anymore anyway. The mathematical significance of the halving doesn't matter anymore that much.

[00:07:48]But what matters about the 4-year cycle is that the whales and the OGs still use it as a reason to sell and buy Bitcoin.

[00:07:58]They just look at the calendar and say, "Okay, it's Q4 of a post halving year.

[00:08:03]I'm going to sell my Bitcoin." They look at the calendar and they say, "Okay, it's Q4 of a midterm year. I'm going to buy my Bitcoin. That's when I'm going to go shopping."

[00:08:13]And they just judge it all based off that. Until that ends, Bitcoin is still going to be in this situation where it's not lining up with the S&P 500.