This analysis attempts to impose a veneer of scientific predictability on market chaos, yet it remains a speculative exercise in reading digital tea leaves. It mistakes historical patterns for certainty in a landscape driven more by crowd psychology than fundamental logic.
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Deep Dive
BITCOIN 80K SUMMER RALLY STARTING? NEW BULL RUN OR BEAR MARKET TRAP? Dogecoin and Bitcoin LIVE!Added:
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[music] >> [music] >> Good afternoon to the viewers of the live stream and whoever is watching afterwards.
This is my evil twin brother. [laughter] Dude, I look like a little kid right now. I look I definitely look uh I look like I'm 23 again.
23 me. Yeah. How you guys doing today?
My evil twin brother is now live streaming.
We got Richard, Knights of Insomnia, Vegeta, Vania, Mania, Oh no, Rising Sun, Craig Coat, Sam Storm, Dominic Mysterio, Oh House, new alltime high by summer.
Is that what you think? We think we think new alltime high by the summer.
You look You look 40. Not a bad thing.
Thank you, sir. Appreciate the compliment.
What's up, Brandon Lunk? Welcome.
Welcome. The Luna Classic Moonboy.
Is this the sci-fi channel intro?
Could be. of sandstorm.
Z5 says bull run June.
Bull run in June.
Yeah, I was looking at the Salana scams and apparently eBay is going to buy GameStop. GameStop to the moon now.
So, it does look like looks like uh maybe we're going to be bullish for the summer.
Imagine it goes all the way back to the high. That would be nuts.
Yeah, I'm going to be honest. If Luna Classic goes back to the high, I'm going to be surprised. I would be shocked. I would be [laughter] this deep in my opinion in a bare market. Holy crap.
It did it. It did it last time.
This was a bare market.
But this is what's interesting to me is every time Luna Classic does this kind of move, it does correspond to some type of top.
Now, the fact that Luna Classic is still pumping doesn't mean the top is in, but whenever Luna Classic tops, that should be where the top is.
But, you know, we're in we're in a weird market cycle this time around. Very weird.
I mean, this coin in itself was bearish since 2022.
This coin didn't even have a bull market.
What's up, Rudy? The Dawn.
Shout out from California.
Marco says, "Imagine thinking 3% is a bull run.
Selling May works every time."
I think last year it was bullish in May.
But I do think we're in a similar scenario, but I don't think it's going to be the same.
Like maybe May is bullish, but it's probably not going to be this bullish. And then I think June and July we kind of get lulled to sleep like last year. Last July basically was the end of the rally.
So I I think maybe this is what we're looking for.
Actually, uh it's not going to look exactly like this.
And then I think we get some accumulation.
And yo, this is actually almost exactly what I'm looking for. Remember I said yesterday, you got to be out before Halloween of 2028.
This is almost exactly what I'm looking for. Honestly, it's not going to look It's not going to look like this, but something like this pretty much.
New users from Sheibba.
What's going on with Luna Classic?
Everyone's migrating to Sheibba. Is that what's going on?
Yes. Is the Luna Classic community still kicking? They're still going strong, huh? I haven't been following Luna Classic.
>> [snorts] >> I'm waiting till the end of the year.
Yeah, I'm not doing anything either.
I talked about it in the video this morning. Salana's not doing anything.
You're you're we're in we're definitely in something. I I think this is definitely going to be more bullish than we gave it credit for originally. I think it's going to be pretty bullish.
So, a lot of people are going to FOMO in, but we're going to get something pretty big. It looks like I mean look at how bullish it is. The momentum is max bullish.
But I think again June, July should be where we kind of stop and then August, September, October should be really bearish and then the bull market starts because what we're seeing now is definitely going to pull on the RS the stock RSI. So, it's kind of like the pre-season to the momentum because you don't really you got it in 2014, so I can't rule it out.
But, I mean, again, you can see that when the bottom was in, the momentum never came back down. So, that's probably what this is. Like, the momentum is probably done.
I don't think it's going to necessarily go like this, but you might get something like this and then the bull run is here.
That's what it looks like.
So, and I mean how bullish the stock market is, you're going to get a pretty decent uh rally here on dudu coins.
And then you have that historical context too which can't forget about this which I'm not saying it has to happen because I think a lot of things definitely broke this market cycle but you have the 200 day moving average coming down pretty much every day now.
So now it's at 83,000.
I wonder if that's where we're going, which probably by next week it should be around 82, 83, maybe even 81,000.
But I'm not saying we have to go there.
I'm not saying it has to top. It's just that's what has happened every cycle.
But we know that a lot of things are happening with Bitcoin that haven't potentially happened in the past.
What's up, JP?
Looking good. [laughter] I actually don't like when I shave, but I had to. It's been so long. Like my mustache and everything. I just wanted to reset.
As you can see, every cycle retest previous high. What do you mean retest previous high?
[snorts] I'm tempted to stick to stocks this cycle.
I'm not fully sure what I'm going to do.
I'm starting to get an idea, but I think stocks will probably be a better option for the first half. And then once we get to that really bullish time, I think that's where the crypto the shitcoins would be the better option because in 2019 the doodoo coins went up in the beginning and then they made new lows.
That happened in 2023 and 2019.
Stocks you would argue only made new lows because of CO. So if we don't have CO then they should just keep going.
But once we get to like I guess October, November, December maybe of 2027, maybe that's where I would make the switch, you know? I mean, something like this isn't impossible, right?
Yeah, probably like the end of 2027 because I, as we said yesterday, I really think you got to be out by uh like I guess Thanksgiving of 2028.
For me personally, I think that's going to be my deadline because we know the same reason we were bearish in January of 2025 is why it's bearish in November, December of 2024, sorry, 2028.
So, I have to be out before then. And the thing is that's only two years away. So if we are bearish after the summer, then it's only going to be two years away, but we would have to go from 40k to 160K. So we got to kind of move, which is why we could get something like this again where it's just a clean it's just a clean move.
We're going to have a co- like drop between October and February. I think it's going to be before that.
I think it's going to be before that.
I think after August it's going to get really bad.
And I mean even according to the moonboy theory that is possible. That's actually probable for the moonboy theory people.
We turned bearish here and we turned bearish here.
You turned ultra bearish. [laughter] Dude, I'm going to be honest. I actually think after the summer we could go down.
Very, very possible. It's actually probable.
Probable cause.
Zbeck and Ripple partnership.
ZBCN. Are they still going?
Oh, I got rejected.
Yeah, somebody in the chat has ZBCN. I think I was talking about this recently.
Yeah, here it is. Yeah, you got stuck at the 618 retracement.
This is kind of it, man.
If she goes below 27, the top is in because you even have a downtrend here, too. Oh, yeah. If this thing falls below 27, that's it. It's going way lower in my opinion.
JP says, "I'm so tired, boss." I mean, there's nothing to be tired about, man.
It's been a bare market for about six months, and we're about six months, five months left of the bare market.
So, if anything, you shouldn't be tired.
You should be resting because the bull market's coming in 6 months. So, I'm going to be well rested for the bull market.
I think that's what causes a lot of FOMO. It's like people want to get their money. For me, I accept like, dude, there's no money to be made. The only people making money right now are the gamblers or the people that just that are just holding forever. But I accept my fate. I can't really do anything. I mean, I could try and trade, but I'm not going to.
So, I'd rather just sit on the sidelines, rest for rest for five more months, and then get into it. That's why when June comes, we're going to make a game plan because we're going to make the plan in June and July, then it's August, October, and then the bull run starts.
So, I mean, just just looking at this, I can't say that this is the whole bare market. We're missing a whole chunk, you know, we're literally missing a whole chunk of the bare market.
Now, it wasn't as bearish as anticipated. It is more bullish than originally anticipated, but we're missing a whole half of the bare market.
What happens if we bottomed?
Well, if we bottomed, then we'll go to the moon.
And once Bitcoin breaks the high, we can buy a bunch of old coins.
There's really no rush because even here, if you bought old coins, even though Bitcoin bottomed, they didn't really do anything.
They all started pumping here.
So if Bitcoin goes like this, you know, maybe then we'll be like, okay, old season is coming.
But the fact that Bitcoin is pumping pretty hard right now and old coins are not moving at all tells me that it's not as bullish as people think it is. Now, that doesn't mean you're not going to get spikes to the upside because that always happens. Even something like peanut peanut spikes to the upside, but then it rolls over.
So, if I had to guess, we're probably in something like this, which unironically is May and June and July.
So, this could definitely be a much bigger rally than some people are giving it credit for, but the ending should be the same. We should roll over when it's done.
The reason why I'm not participating is because I don't know where the top is, you know? Like, what if we say we're going to get a rally and the top is like 80K and then it rolls over? Damn, I'm a bag holder. I'd rather just do nothing.
I was better off holding stocks than crypto.
That's all right.
Just don't make the same mistake twice.
That's what I'm telling myself.
Don't make the same mistake twice.
That's it.
Let's take a look at some Oh, wow. The monthly stock RSI for SPY is still bearish.
That's interesting.
That's interesting.
This one is still max bullish.
It's nothing really to see on that. This is max bullish.
See, the more I look at this stuff, it does kind of make me upset because it makes you look at 2022 as the true reset. You know, like 2022 was the reset.
We're never going back to those prices ever again.
So, it's kind of like, ah, damn it, you know, [laughter] cuz look at the stock RSI. It was fully reset for the first time since 2009.
Look at this thing. Nuts.
We're going down. The bottom is months away.
Well, some people think no. Some people think yes. So, I think bare market's halfway done.
But I am curious to where the bottom is because historically speaking, my eyes hear the people in the chat already. My eyes I can't see.
Historically, we do come down to the delta price, but it's all the way down at 44,000.
So, my question is, how the hell do we get to 44,000?
We're going to need to do some kind of 2018 style rug where it just goes straight down.
It could also be like 2014 where you see how we're in the middle and everyone's excited and then we just died.
But my thing is here, if we're really going to be bullish until August, then how are we going to go from 80K to 40K in September? It's going to be the worst month. It's going to be the worst drop we've ever seen in a long time.
This one was 38%.
We're at 80K.
Yeah, we're it's it's going to be really bad.
You know, lunk pump hard. Yeah, GME is pumping too. eBay is trying to buy it. I read.
Yeah, Luna Classic is pumping.
Do I got to put Luna Classic in the title? You think? Should I throw Luna Classic in there? Try and get the Luna Moon boys.
All right, let's see if that works.
Has Jasmine been forgotten?
Probably.
probably. Man, this is my price prediction for Jasmine.
It's the other way around. GME is buying eBay. Really?
But GME sucks. How I actually just drove past the GameStop.
How do they still is eBay going to zero?
Yeah. How is eBay spiked after reports that GME has built a stake?
How does GME have money for that?
How is that possible? GME is at a 12 billion market cap and eBay is at 50 billion.
GME has 10 billion in cash. Yeah, but eBay is worth 50 billion. How does that make sense?
Do I look at CW20 coins on lunk? What does that even mean?
You're telling me that Luna Classic has a chain?
You think I should put Luna Classic in the title?
Are the Luna Classic Moonboys still out there? [laughter] Let me throw it in there. Lunk.
Let me throw lunk in the title. See if it helps.
Is the Luna Classic community still there? Seriously?
After all, after all [laughter] of this, are they really still there?
That's nuts. I mean, technically the price hasn't moved in four years, but 12 billion market cap with 10 billion cash. That's a terrible That's a terrible recipe.
Let's put Luna Classic in the title. See if people come in.
Jimmy holds a lot of Bitcoin.
Yeah, but eBay is worth five times as much. I mean, I don't understand how it works, but I guess it doesn't matter.
Jasmine's never coming back. Yeah, a lot of coins aren't coming back.
I think you could still get some type of bull bounce, but that's the top for eternity 37.
Why hate on Jasmi? It's not hating on Jasmi. It's the reality. You had a 618 retracement, which is the most bearish indication that you can get.
It's very rare that you make a 618 and then go higher after that. Now, if it ends up holding the low, you have a chance. But if it breaks the low, it's done. It's never going back up there.
So, if we end up making a higher low, then it's possible.
Oh wow, even the 12day stock RSI is overbought now.
Yeah, this is definitely something.
Yeah, this is something, man.
among people on major opium.
This is definitely something big. So, if it's anything other than an all-time high, it's ultra bearish.
I'm not going to make it.
I mean, if you just hold jazz me to zero, you might not make it, you know.
The good news is it hasn't moved since December.
So, if there is a rally to the upside, you might be able to get out.
And I actually thought about this. I saw this this morning. A lot of people are going to think that the bottom is in.
And maybe it is. Maybe it's different this time. I don't think so, but maybe it is, right? But you could go back to 2022 and you can see that JASME did do the same thing where it put a low in May and it held up the whole summer and then at the smallest moment from September actually from August until December it went down.
And the thing is that's projected to be where the bull run starts. I think the bull run starts in December. Even though the bottom is in is in November or October potentially, the bullishness should return in December and January.
So, if we're bullish, which is May now until August, and Jasm doesn't move, look out below.
So, I think again it's going to be bullish maybe for a little bit longer than we thought. Maybe it is bullish until July, but we're going to be watching other signs to show us maybe it's just bullish in the short term. It's not actually bullish. And something like Salana would also help with that.
Salana did the same thing. It basically did nothing. It looked like the bottom was in and then the bottom fell out.
Right now it looks like the bottom is in. But if there's no rally then the bottom will fall out.
Looks like the bottom is in then the bottom falls out.
I put lunk in the title and we didn't we didn't get any new viewers. It didn't work.
The master plan didn't work. Someone already disliked the stream. Little rat.
[laughter] Let's try it.
We'll just do a test pilot today.
I put Luna Classic in the title.
See if it helps. See if it boosts the views just for one day only. See if we get a boost.
[laughter] Hey, I used to be a Luna Classic Moonboy.
I just don't know what to say about it because I don't do TA. So, I don't know like what would I say to the moon?
What's up, Ian Wallace? John Pelro summertime is back. Welcome back.
Welcome back.
You know what's a really good You know what's a really good indicator, too? I really shouldn't share this, but there's not that many people in here.
Somebody made a Bitcoin. Somebody in the chat gave this to me.
This This thing is nuts.
So, when we get the yellow dot, we're going to know it's time to get in.
But the thing is the having the the profit start is now the real top and the thing is the profit start is moving.
It's moving to the left.
So I don't know how exactly this is calculated.
I think it uses the having, right? I'm pretty sure it uses the having. 40 weeks from the having. Is that what it is?
Yeah, it's it's 40 weeks from the having.
Almost spot on.
But in the past it was profit start. So that means the bull run is starting. Now it means the bull run is the bull run is ending.
So our having is projected to be in April again.
So 40 weeks from April would be January of 2028.
But I think the bearishness returns in October, November of 2028.
Not the bare market, but the bearishness.
So it might be a little bit shorter than that.
That's why what we're doing right now is so interesting because it's kind of like how do we get down there?
It would have to look like this, you know.
Oh, no. Sorry. The having is out here.
Wrong wrong uh wrong year.
And it has to kind of look like this, which makes sense if you look at it. To me, it makes sense. This looks like it should happen, right? You get the completion of the bare market, all the bottom signals get triggered, and then we start the bull market again, and then we get 170K by 2029. That makes sense to me. And it looks like it should happen.
[snorts] H&T is going to zero. Is it?
[laughter] >> [clears throat] >> Oh, I don't know why that's funny to me.
But yeah, I mean, here's an example.
It's very scary. You put your money in an old coin waiting for old season and then never comes and you get a retracement thinking the bull run is just starting, but that was the whole bull run.
Now, a 10x is still a lot of money, but the bull run doesn't last long at all.
Not to mention the fact that the bottom for Bitcoin was all the way back here and this thing went down for another six months. So the bull the bull run was from October of 2023 to March of 2024.
So how many months is that? Six.
Yeah. Five. Five month bull market.
But just the fact that this thing is still going down is not good. Even though this is a rubbish coin, there's a lot of rubbish coins that are still bearish.
Yeah, I added Luna Classic to the title, but it didn't help. So, I got to I don't know how to change it back now.
Lunk Brandon tricked me. He tricked me into putting it in the title.
Some of these coins look so bad. Yeah, a lot of the coins look bad. There's a select amount of coins that look good.
Luna Classic is going up, but I'm pretty sure, this is just my intuition.
I'm pretty sure we're going through something like we did last year.
And coming out of that, it's going to turn bearish.
You know what a good example to show you would be the Bitcoin divided by SPY chart. That's what I'm trying to show you. So, Bitcoin divided by SPY isn't doing the exact same thing, but you can see that we rallied out of this correction and then we turned bearish after July.
I would not rule this out.
This is what I think is on the table.
Which is why if we make it to June or not necessarily June, but if we come to July and we're still in the 70K range, we can start preparing for the move down because if it was a new bull market, we would be going up now. Why? because the momentum is that bullish and if it's not going to go up with that bullish momentum, that momentum cannot stay bullish forever.
It rolls over at some point and when it rolls over in a bare market, it's not pretty.
So this is kind of it like like right now.
That's why every week that goes by that we just sit here, it increases the likelihood that we will be going to new lows.
So that doesn't mean we can't sit here.
We could sit here, which is probably what we're going to do. We're probably just going to sit here. But again, once July passes, now you have August, September, October.
If we're still at 80,000, we got to go from 80 down to 40, which is 50%. Well, we don't have to go to 40k, but historically, we go down to at least 43,000. Again, as I said before, we don't have to. Maybe it's different this time, but every single time you've come to this green line, and our green line is all the way down at 40 something. So, me personally, I think Bitcoin goes to around 40 and change, 43, 45 maybe.
But the question is, how do we go from 80,000 down to 40,000 in 3 months?
Some people don't think we are. Some people think it's different this time.
So, it's But there's always there's always a half the people always think it's different this time. I thought the same thing at one point.
So, you just have to manage your This guy said Uber is undervalued right now. [laughter] Are you Are you a Uber, Moonboy?
Uber. [laughter] I don't know why I thought that was so funny.
Uber is super undervalued right now.
Uber's expensive, man. I used Uber last year and they wanted like $20 to drive two miles. I I walked or maybe it was $30, but I got a new membership discount. It was like half off.
Yeah. You know what? You could actually be bearish on Uber. Hold on a second.
Uber. Oh, that's what I wanted to tell you. Actually, I wanted to tell you guys that. Yeah, Uber's following Bitcoin, man.
Now, obviously Uber's not has nothing to do with Bitcoin, and neither are the stocks that I'm about to share with you, but they do in the sense that they only run when we're actually bullish.
So, I didn't know this, or at least I forgot, but Reddit is also a stock, which I didn't realize that.
And look at when Reddit turned bullish, when Bitcoin went bullish, and Reddit has been bearish since September.
Now, Reddit is following Bitcoin. So, these kinds of stocks are probably going to be bearish until Bitcoin turns bullish again.
What do you guys think about Reddit?
Should we buy Reddit in 2027?
I mean, they're even beating on earnings and it's still going down. Yeah, it's just following Bitcoin.
I don't know. Do you buy Do you buy Reddit when it goes if it goes to 90 bucks?
Do people still use Reddit?
I read. Isn't Discord going to try and make a stock, too?
Wait, is this real?
It says It says Reddit or it says Discord is about to make a stock.
XX III and Mara. This guy's name is Anthony Jabroni.
That mid40 is Is your name Anthony or is you calling me a Jabroni?
I like Hood. I sold it off way too early. Yeah, but Hood is too high up. I mean, they're all too high up. I just don't know if Hood is going to go on another rally like this. You know, it did a 20x.
I would like Robin Hood if it came back to 33 bucks.
is SMCI.
I don't know what that is.
What incarnation is this? Whatever happened to Newegg?
Oh my god, it went down.
Oh no, it did a 30x off the low. What the hell? [snorts] Yeah, I thought Newegg Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. What is that meme? Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Get over here. Isn't Newegg like the top computer website? Why is it going down?
And it's only 600 million market cap.
Woof. Oh, they changed it.
No, it's not. Oh, I see what you're saying.
[laughter] Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
So, nobody uses Newegg anymore or does Newegg follow Bitcoin?
Hold on, hold on. Let him cook now. Do people still say that? I never say that.
I don't like using the terminology.
Wait, no, seriously, let him cook now.
Does Does new egg just follow Bitcoin?
2014, 2017, 2021, 2025.
It's only It's only 600 million market cap.
So, what if Newegg capitulates and then it goes like this?
This is my Newegg chart. Somebody take a picture of it. Come back in two in two years.
I when I built my computer as a young boy and however many years ago, I bought the parts off a new egg.
>> [snorts] >> Bitcoin dump followed Oracle. 30K layoff.
Yeah, I still don't know what Oracle does. Oracle's been bearish since September.
Maybe corn, wheat, and other food stocks will pump.
Uh, didn't that happen in 2022?
Let's see what else I got here. Yeah, this is another one too that I mean some people think that this time around it's going to be different, but I don't.
I have no issue waiting.
We just need one more one more spike. Not spike, but one more flush down here. That's what I'm looking for.
One more flush down here. Now, I already hear the argument, well, we didn't come to the top, so we don't have to come to the bottom. I actually think the fact that you didn't come to the top makes it more likely that you come to the bottom because you didn't get high enough to make it so it doesn't go down to the bottom.
Viewership is increasing. [laughter] I like how you said that viewership. The viewership is increasing.
[laughter] Yeah, usually people start coming in around 2 o'clock. I think it's because I usually stream around 2:00.
The viewership is increasing.
Bitcoin, I already read that.
Oracle runs the internet. Wait for the pi cycle bottom. No, the pi cycle indicator doesn't work. I knew the pi cycle top wasn't going to trigger.
That's why I didn't use it. Those [snorts] kind of indicators are broken. But these are not these are like momentum based kind of.
I don't even know what this is. I just have it.
CVDD terminal price plus zcore.
But they all look the same. It's the same thing as the RSI. The RSI topped tier, too.
The problem is if you make the timeline higher, it doesn't work.
See, like it doesn't show the prior bare markets.
So, you have to keep it on low time frames.
Viewership is increasing.
Is it over for Pepe? I think until, you know, I don't think it's over for Pepe. I think it's over for Pepe now.
Viewership is increasing.
Get over here. I I I'm going to watch Pepe.
I think if Pepe comes down low enough, I might buy it.
I think if it comes to this range somehow, I would probably buy it.
Now, that's a big ask, but unfortunately, they relaunched Faky, so I don't think I can even Yeah, they relaunched Faky, unfortunately.
Wow, Faky did have a monstrous run. Look at this. Wow. Yeah, I'll never let that down. I bought Faky at the absolute bottom, man. And I sold it literally the peak bottom and I got fudded out.
But the reason I bring up Faky is because Pepe could do something like Faky. I just don't know where the absolute peak was. Maybe it was Maybe Faky did just come back to the high because they got rid of the chart.
So, I'm thinking maybe maybe Pepe is going to do what Faky did where we do get that final crash and then Pepe goes back to the high because Pepe is pretty much on Robin Hood. Pepe is one of the biggest memes ever. Not even just like crypto, right? Isn't the frog all over the place? I mean, I don't use the internet anymore. I mean, obviously, I use the internet for like YouTube and stuff, but I don't I don't use Twitter.
I don't use Reddit. I don't use Discord.
I don't use like whatever you want to call internet 2.0, 3.0, whatever. Brain rot, whatever. You know, I don't use it anymore. But I'm pretty sure Pepe is like the biggest meme, isn't it? So I feel like Pepe is too big to fail. I mean, clearly it's going to zero, but I feel like it could get another big run.
So me personally, I think if it does go down one more time, I might put some money in. Even if I only put in like $2,000, you know, and even it goes back to the high.
Lunk is breaking out.
No, it's not. We already looked at it.
Viewership is increasing.
I took Luna Classic out of the title, too. That's what's ironic.
>> [snorts] >> chill guy. Yeah, but chill guy was a one-time thing.
What I want to focus on here, get over here.
I want to really see. I think I'll do that starting tomorrow. I think today's the last day we kind of just show up like a head headless chicken because I've just been trying to stream just to get get the stream on the channel. But I think we have to start actually mapping out where we are. I think I want to do that because what I'm starting to think is happening here is we're in some type of mid bare market rally, but depending on how long it takes, we may still be sitting on the back end of something like this.
And we need to know the signs to watch for that to be the case. And I talked about it in the video this morning.
Salana is one of them. The fact that SPY is pumping how hard it is and Salana is not budging. Why is that?
From the bare market low, Salana pumped with SPY all the way up.
And this is the first time it's not, which tells me that we're not actually bullish. It's just a bunch of rubbish.
That doesn't mean we have to go down right now, but like I said before, if we come to July and we're still in the same spot, that tells me, prepare for detonation, just like in the summer of 2022, from May until November, it did nothing.
And then from November to December, it went down to zero.
I guess, you know, that's the thing, but that's the thing about the bare market.
You don't know how low it's going to go.
Do we think Salana is going to go from 80 bucks all the way down to 30 and then recover back to 280 again?
Do you buy Salana at $30 thinking there's a better option out there or do you just say it's too cheap, I have to get in, take the guaranteed money. But then you have to ask yourself, is it guaranteed?
Because Ethereum didn't even make a new all-time high.
But then you have the Moonboy argument, which I can't really deny.
Oh, we have QE this time. [laughter] Somebody said that yesterday or maybe it was a couple days ago. We have QE this time. QE started. I I forget how to pull that up on the chart.
We have QE.
I think it's the Oh, here it is.
You know, do you do you do you buy Salana at 30 bucks?
And then you have to ask yourself, what if it does? Like, what if it does though? Like that? I don't know. I don't know. We have QE.
>> [snorts] >> Only the memory and semiconductors are bullish. Yeah, I checked the spy index and like four of the coins are all semiconductors.
It will at least retest the low before we get a bull run. People should look at look for GME meme to pump on Monday.
Yeah, it already is. I checked it before.
It is.
But that's why it's so weird because it's supposed to be a bare market, but at the same time, you could get a big spike in a bare market, which is why I actually am starting to think we are in May of 2025, just like a smaller version.
>> [snorts] >> We're going to have plenty of time to prepare, but I think we should start preparing soon because it was just January and now it's May. And pretty soon it's going to be July and then September and then it's bull bull market time. And the reason why we got hosed is because we didn't know what to do down here. And what do I mean by that? Some people got lucky and bought Fetch and INJ. I bought Avalanche rubbish. And Avalanche is a dud.
It made another low after the bottom.
So, I got to pick the right stuff this time, which maybe diversification would help with that instead of going all in on some [ __ ] But yeah, you know what was really interesting about this bull market, too?
There were no scams like yield yield scams.
Oh my gosh. Are there any yield scams right now? Like B&B farming?
Yeah, I forgot about that. Can't Don't you get look Don't you get money for for putting your coins in the liquidity pool?
Oh, I forgot about that.
Oh, look at GME on Ethereum. Oh, this shit's not even moving. Never mind.
Yeah, what a run this thing had. Oh, man.
30x off the summer low.
Defi is dead. Gotcha.
DeFi pools got liquidated October 10th.
No, but I'm saying even in the bull market, there was no there were no scams. Like in 2021, there were Strong Nodes and Titano. Remember Titano? And there was another one, too. Life Dow, we didn't have any of that this time.
Smart people don't touch DeFi.
They didn't even exist this time around.
Don't mention strong strong nodes were garbage. No, they were really good. We just got them. Well, I got in right before the big bubble popped.
So, I at least got my money back even though I ultimately got rugged because I kept throwing the money back in. But originally, I got my money back, but I was greedy so I put more in. But if you got in early, you were millionaire, right? You probably could have got a hundred strong nodes at like $10 and just collected the money for two years before it rubbed.
I don't even think it's here anymore.
It's probably not even on here.
Whatever happened to the Wait, let's look at some of these coins.
I haven't looked at these coins in forever.
Simon's cat.
Oh, this thing is a rug.
Billy on soul. Remember Billy? This was the non-goian coin. Billy. Does anybody know if Rob G is still alive?
How's Rob G, man?
Yeah. Remember Billy? [laughter] Dude, I just I actually You know what? I'm actually glad I can at least laugh at it. Dude, we had so many degenerate scams, man.
Dude, remember uh what was that guy's name? [sighs] Yeah, it was it was my [laughter] Rocky.
Dude, how's Rob G doing, man? Oh man, I forgot about Rob G. [snorts] [laughter] >> [snorts] >> Vegeta Cosmos. Not Wait, there's two Vegetas in the chat. Or is it the same guy?
We got Local Liquid in the chat.
Rob G, that dude had a good run. No, I actually thought about it as I was driving before I laughed. We We had a fantastic run. We just didn't know at the time that we were supposed to be getting out. Like I don't know I don't know if John Doe is still active in the crypto community. I think he's just doing his own thing and rightfully so.
But that guy actually had the he had the generational run of generational runs and we witnessed it in real time.
Like it makes it makes [laughter] me laugh.
He genuinely turned like 80 bucks into a h 100,000.
And I I just don't even know how. Like I know exactly how he did it. I remember it's just like what a run, man. What a run.
I had a good run, too, but but his run was like that's got to be first place.
That's like a thousandx, right?
80 bucks times a 100 would be 8,000. Yeah, you got a,000x.
Rob G is still gambling. [laughter] Oh man, dude. Uh, shout out to Rob G. I hope he's all right, man.
Rob G actually for the first time ever, Fendi. I don't even know if you guys know who that is, but he actually appeared in my dream like a couple weeks ago.
Rob G appears in my dreams. Not often, but at least once every three months, I would say.
Even though I don't even fully know what he looks like. His face is always Oh, no, we do. Yeah, maybe that's why we do know what he looks like because we used to have we used to have pictures of him.
Yeah. No, I think that's why he I think that's why he appears in my dreams because his face used to be all over my Discord server.
That's why he's the only one that shows up. Everyone else doesn't have a face to their name. They're just names.
That's probably why.
But yeah, those are the only two that ever I I think John Doe might have appeared in a dream before. I I He probably He must have maybe once, but yeah. How's Rob G, man? She said he's still gambling.
We definitely got to take profits this run. Well, the thing is, right, or we can change the assets that we're buying because with stocks, you don't even necessarily take profit.
I mean, yeah, you have to take profit, but like the problem with old coins is if you don't take profit in a week, you lose everything. It's ridiculous.
At least even with MSTR, you had multiple tries to get out.
Even in 20 2021 with the coins that we were buying, I remember I remember when my net worth peaked.
I remember the day it peaked. The mo the the absolute moment my net worth peaked.
I tried to sell hoppy at the top and everybody started selling at the same time as me and I was so frustrated. Like I literally tried to sell the exact top and it just freaking collapsed 20%. Like I think it was in an hour. It might have even been in an hour. I remember telling myself, "All right, when it hits two, I'm going to start selling." And literally as soon as I started selling, everybody started selling.
Yeah, it was it was the same hour. Oh, no. Sorry. That was uh not the one I bought. It's this one. No, it was the summertime. Yeah, it was in here.
We had that one spike up and I started selling and then everybody started selling at the same time. This was the first time I actually sold the top. The problem is I went into something else that ultimately went to nothing.
So, which is ironic because technically if I would have just bought back into hoppy, I would have made it. But should have, could have, would have. But the point of me bringing that up is maybe we can buy different assets to where you don't have 24 hours to get out.
It's a worth it's worth a thought, but I'm I'm definitely going to make a plan to where I don't have to rely on this.
But I'm definitely going to get in.
Originally, I didn't think I would, but now that I'm listening to myself talk, I think the issue is we all had all of our money in there, you know, that's the problem. Like, if you have most of your money in, let's just say, Bitcoin, and then you take, let's say you have 3K, 5K, whatever, 10K, maybe gamble with that, but then you have all your money in other assets.
The problem with us is we had our entire net worth on MetaMask. So it's like we have to go and get a whatever.
And I learned that most of the time when you start out with less money, you end up making more because you lose more.
You lose less. So I think that's what I'm going to do. I think I'm going to set money aside just a little bit. Nothing. But the reason why I'm going to say that is because that's what we started out with originally. We started out with nothing.
Like I said, John Doe started with 90 bucks, man. And then he turned it into 100K.
Even Nongoyen is here. Noning Goyan had like 2K and even he got to 100,000.
So you you don't need all your money on Metam Mask. That's why I'm not making that mistake twice.
We know what to do this time. We just have to do it.
So, we're going to have plenty of time to prepare. I think I think starting this week coming up, I'm going to start drawing a playbook for myself.
Well, obviously for whoever, but I have to say for myself because again, I I think the real question right now is if this is not truly bullish, then how do we get to 40,000 by November?
That's the question.
Does it look like this where we just top out and then go down? Does it look like this where we actually float around and then go down?
Or does it look like this where we go super high and then we go down and then you'll have the the group of people maybe it's not going down there. Maybe it's not. But if it's not, then it shouldn't be going up right now. Which the reason why I say that is because in a bare market when the stock RSI is here, look at what happens.
You go down pretty nasty.
So I I you know I I I don't want to I mean I don't want to just watch it go to 40k.
You know, I want to do something, but I also don't want to take an unnecessary risk. I need to know for sure that it's going down there. Like when we were up here, we were kind of 100% convinced it's going down there.
And it did. After this higher low, I definitely realized like it's not going down there. Damn. And it was it was a little bit too late, but it wasn't entirely too late because at least it was at 68K and not 78K.
But I want to get to the point to where it's like, all right, we know we're going down there. And right now, I can't say that. Like, we could we can assume that at some point it's going down there, but I don't know how high it's going to go. And I don't know how long it's going to take. Which is why now that the people keep mentioning the moonboy chart, I'm starting to think maybe we are going to just sit here until July, which we'll know that if July comes and goes and we're still here, that might be the trigger point because it was the trigger point here and it was the trigger point here.
Actually, it was the trigger point here to a lesser extent because you made a new high, but Ethereum didn't.
And it was definitely the trigger point here. So that could be what we're doing.
It could be. And the reason why that's so relevant, too, is because look at the momentum.
It does line up. It lines up, man.
This 13-day, sorry, this 12-day stock RSI is max bullish.
You've never done what you're doing right now in a bare market. Never. If you want to argue here, it's always going to be debatable because is this still the bare market or is it part of the bull market? I don't know. I I always assume the bull market starts when the low is in.
So, if the low is not in, then it's not a bull market. But you're getting bull market pushes.
The thing is when you come out of this to the downside, you get a bare market drop.
And the reason why this is so important, as I always say now, is because all of these drops were 30%. So if we're at 75K and we fall by 30%, we're going into the 50s. This one was 50%.
So, I think what's happening, this is not what I'm saying is happening, but what I think is potentially in the conversation like as a rough draft is maybe we do just sit here until June, July, because if we're not bullish, then it has to be bearish. And the reason why it has to be bearish is because when the stock RSI rolls over, it is bearish. But every time it rolls over, it's after it already exploded by 50% or more. So unless we're going to Well, I guess I could even say 100% or more. Yeah, I didn't even consider that. Look at the size of these moves. They're all a 2x.
Oh, this one was only 60%.
So that's something that I'm open to. I think if we do just sit here until May or June, not May, sorry, June or July, doesn't mean we have to go down, but if it is truly bullish, how how many people in the chat think only 27?
Only 27%. Well, 20% is unsure.
So, only half the chat thinks it's 100% a bare market, which is fine, right?
There's nothing wrong with that, but that's the that's the that is the statistic. Half the chat says 100% bare market.
But the moves coming out of these stock RSIs are going to be gnarly even here. Look. So, I I think I think the blueprint, if you want to call it that, we could start developing.
Maybe we're bullish until middle of the summer and then July and August coming and we're still at 80K or lower, then we're going to know we're going down.
And we'll know that we're going down if Salana keeps bleeding.
B&B keeps bleeding.
Yeah. Is not in going still in the chat.
You can definitely put Ethereum on the Moonboy chart and see what I'm talking about.
It does turn bearish.
Yeah, I'm going to be honest, man. Look, ETH fell by 29%. Even though you had a you had an orange line and an orange line. I'm not going to lie. I think that could be what's going on here.
We might just sit here until the summer and then when the when the Moonboy event passes, it just goes straight down.
Dude, I'm not even bullshitting you. I'm starting to buy my own propaganda because we didn't know CO was coming down here, but it still went down there.
Look, Ethereum fell by 68%.
Even though we didn't know COVID was coming, this guy said, "Did you get a haircut?" Dude, [laughter] what do you what do you notice that's different about me?
Don't I look younger?
This guy said that I get a haircut. You know who I look like right now?
I only look like this for like a week and then once my facial hair grows back, I look like a normal.
But whenever I shave, whenever I shave like this, I look like this guy.
This is who I remind myself of, right? That's what I feel like. You guys don't even know who this is.
That's That's what I That's what I remind myself of.
You look like a European guy. I am a European guy.
If you always ignore the four-year cycle, you got wrecked.
Yeah. What I'm saying here is we fell by 68% before we got co which means I'm actually I just got super bearish.
You guys are trying to give me bullish hopeium and I'm not buying it, but I'm considering it. But now because you guys are using our own chart against me now that I'm looking at it, I'm I am a thousand% bearish because the the Moonboy event came and gone and we went straight down.
So, I think we're I think once August passes, that's it.
We go right to a thousand bucks. Maybe not that low. Maybe 13 to,200.
I didn't know there was historical data to back it up.
From June to December, how many months is that? Three.
Three month. Oh, we have three months, right? Yeah.
I'm I'm bearish again. Like I mean I was never not bearish but I do have to respect the bullish momentum. It's definitely there but I I I think once the summer passes I go back to Mr. Bear Kim Possible Mole Frontier is next to go under in the next couple of weeks. The economy is going to be bad.
Yeah. I don't I I've never used Spirit Airlines before.
Looks like it's going to the moon now.
I don't know anything about that.
You remove comments who call you out for who you are. I actually haven't removed comments in like four months. I just removed comments from trolls.
So, I think I already know who this is.
First time commenting.
Yeah, it's a burner account. I've been banning the same guy for like four years now. So, it's probably the same guy.
Considering this is the first time you've ever commented, it's probably the same guy.
Won't see under 1,600.
No, I think I think Ethereum realistically, if I had to buy Ethereum, I would say like between I would say like maybe 1,200.
I don't know if we go down to 900. I think that's too low.
But I don't I think 1,500 is maybe I I think between 1,00 and 1,500 [snorts] ETH under 1,600 is impossible. No, I think under a thousand is unlikely because if you look at it from this perspective, it looks like we're halfway through the bare market.
Some people might be saying the bottom is already in.
Maybe it is, but if it isn't, there's one more move down.
ETH 4100 to400.
Yeah, it could. I mean, I think there's just too many people. I mean, I'm not going to say it's impossible, but it's very unlikely.
If Ethereum went to 800 bucks, I would buy it 100%. I would have to buy it.
Even if I just bought like 10 10 coins just Yeah. 100%. Oh, 100%. If ETH ever went back down here, I would I would buy it.
10 coins at a,000 bucks. Even if it just goes back to the high, it's something.
You know, it's not rich, but now you have to ask yourself the other question, too. Do we think ETH is going to break the high next time?
It should. I mean, let's be honest now.
We keep talking about these semiconductors.
If Nvidia is going to 15 trillion, then the total market cap can hit 5 trillion or 6 trillion.
Come on, man.
We got stocks every every semiconductor is going to be a trillion market cap.
There's about 20 of them.
One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. I have 17.
Every one of them is like 500 bill. Look at this one. 1.75 trillion. Taiwan semiconductor.
They're all a trillion market cap. So, Ethereum should be able to get somewhere around there, right? Isn't Isn't Ethereum supposed to be like the something?
Yeah. But then at the same time, you look at it from this perspective and it's like, man, look at the freaking run it had.
Maybe nobody wants to buy it because it was 60.
Now it's $2,000.
But what if this is just a consolidation phase and then we get a monster run?
Yeah, I think if ETH went below a thousand, I would probably buy it. I wouldn't go all in, but I would probably buy it just in case. Just in case there's a scenario where the market cycle we just sat through was a dud and maybe it does go from a,000 to 10,000.
Is that really that unrealistic?
You know, and then you pull up the Moonboy, you pull up the Moonboy argument and you say, "Well, look at QE.
QE to the moon. QE to the moon, baby."
I don't know. It's tough.
Bitcoin high to low from alltime highs at the 382. Do I think we top here soon and go down to 50K?
Well, we That's the thing though. We couldn't top but sit here. That's We don't have to go down right away.
Yeah, I didn't I didn't actually notice that 382 is right there.
I kind of hope we sit here for the rest of the year and then at the end of the summer we go down. That's what I'm hoping.
I hope it looks like this.
Oh, this would be the this would be the best case scenario for us. If we got this exact scenario, it would be beautiful.
This would be a gift.
We get in in December, we go right back up to June, go sideways, then at the end of 2027, we go up.
This would be nice.
Nice.
I hope so, but hope doesn't really help.
Smash Toshi's in the chat.
Very, very bare. Hopium.
Wait, what happened to the poll?
The poll is not on my screen. And do you guys still see a poll?
What to buy besides Bitcoin? That's the question.
Well, that's the thing for me. There's only stocks because old coins aren't really going to run until maybe Q4 of 2027.
It's at the bottom. All right. It's not there for me.
I think if Ethereum does go to a,000 bucks, I would probably buy it. Cuz in the back of my head, there's always been a theory of mine, like a moonboy theory, where what we're sitting through right now is like a bigger version of this kind of, you know, it's like one more flush down, we'll mark the bottom and then we go bullish.
Because I'm looking at Intel and Intel did the same thing where it just did nothing, you know? I'm surprised the I'm surprised Ben Cohen doesn't talk about this, right?
Like what if we're right here for Ethereum and we need one more one more move down and then we just go straight up.
Huh? You like thatium or no? No good. No good.
Eat classic. That shit's done, man. That that thing's going to zero.
Do I think the big banks want us retail investors to think we're all going down once more but then not let it go back down? Are most retail investors almost out? I mean, there's really nobody left.
If you look at the big bullish YouTubers, even their views got cut. My views are basically non-existent, but I can't complain. I'm I'm happy with what I have. But if you look at big bullish YouTubers, outside of Ben Cowan, because his name is actually Ben Cowan. Outside of Ben Cowan, almost every YouTuber's views got cut except for the view botters.
So there's really nobody here in proportion to who was here. So when people say retail, there's nobody left.
I don't think we're considered retail.
Even though we're considered retail by definition because we're not like institutions or whatever you want to call them, but like true retail I don't think is even here.
Now, what is interesting though, hold on now. I might have a I might have a counterargument to what I just said.
Now, this could be bull. Now, this could be bullish though for the next bull market. My eyes. My eyes.
Look, it seems like there's a little bit of interest because this was the 2021 bull market.
So, what if what if what we're in right now is like accumulation and then the next bull run is going to be big.
Either that or this is a retracement and we're about to go straight down. That's the bare argument. The bare argument is you made a lower high and now we're being distributed and it's about to it's about to plummet.
That's the other option.
Yeah. Oh, I wish I could.
Hold on.
Can I pick a date? Custom.
Let's see.
Okay, so in December of 2017, you can see they rugged it and we went into a bare market, right?
But the bare market bottom was around December, November.
But then we made a lower low right at that 2019 bottom that I was talking about.
So it doesn't definitively mean that the interest can't go lower because it probably will.
So I think I think with our new discovery we might just sit here until July and then after July it's perma bear.
I think we get this.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not even And that's the thing too. How do we know that we don't get something like this?
Like, I know we keep saying the opposite. What if it doesn't run, but what if because we just had a dookie run, we're going to get a good one.
You don't know, right? What if Ethereum turns bearish?
Because what did we say before? We're going to be out by December of 2028.
It doesn't mean the bare market is starting, but you know, could be. I wouldn't bet on it though.
Please give us entry.
For what?
Hop in now or you'll get left behind.
Dude, every time I've seen that, the price has gone lower.
There's no such thing as get in now or get left behind.
Think about it. The price of Ethereum was 2,300 in 2026, 2025, 2023, 2024, 2022, 2021, [laughter] 2017. Oh, no. It didn't hit in 2017. The price of Ethereum has been the same for five years in a row. You don't get left behind.
I don't I don't buy that anymore.
But we'll we'll make a plan. We're going to start making a plan very soon. So, all right, chat. Another stream complete. Thank you all for tuning in.
Stay safe. I know some of you believe this is a bull market. Maybe it is. I don't think it is. I think you're probably doing something similar to this or this.
I think this big red candle is probably the next move down.
But then it should be it. I think once we get down here, then I turn into a big moonboy.
So, I can't wait to be a moonboy. My channel's going to do so much better.
I'm going to start posting rockets and Doge to $5. No, I'm not going to do that. But Luna Classic to a dollar.
[laughter] Is Brandon Lunk still in the chat? Yeah, he is. Look at him. Lunk is on a run.
Shout out to Brandon Lunk, man.
Yeah, Lunk is on the run, baby. It might it might go to 1 cent, dude. Holy crap.
Dogecoin energy for five. Been watching you for a few years from my other account. Love all your analysis. Keep up the fight, Doge brother. I appreciate the five, man. That is awesome. Yeah, thanks for the support, man. It hasn't been the best, but it hasn't been the worst. I'll say my analysis. I'm not the I'm not the best, but I'm not the worst.
So, I'll take the middle of the pack.
And the beautiful thing about YouTube is once we go bullish, nobody even cares.
Everybody just starts screaming to the moon. Oh my god. Get in before the rocket leaves. Like this guy just said, [laughter] "Yeah, same thing with Doge. It's been the same price for five years."
But I do appreciate the five, man. I appreciate the support. So, enjoy your weekend if I don't see you tomorrow. And stay safe is my new saying. Stay safe.
As always, none of this is financial advice. Thank you for the five, Mr. Doge, and see you soon.
[music] [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat.
[music] Heat.
[music] Heat.
[music] Heat. Heat.
[music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> Heat.
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