WATCH THIS Before Tuesday's Stock Market Open

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Uh, you better go out and buy stock now.

[00:00:03]Let me tell you, this this country will will be like a rocket ship that goes straight up. This is going to be numbers that nobody's ever seen before. Uh, that's a very important element of all of this. You know, if we get >> Welcome everybody to the Daily Recap Show where we talk about stocks and the financial markets. My name is Chase. If you like this video, please subscribe, hit that notification bell as well as the like button and leave a comment for the algorithm. Let's get into it. This is the daily heat map of the S&P 500 and US stocks pushed higher on Friday. While all oil prices also rose as traders tracked headlines [music] on Iran's peace talks with the US against a backdrop of corporate earning optimism and AI enthusiasm, which have pushed indices to record highs. Now, you can see today was actually a largely green day, broadly green across the board. You could see here that actually some of the tech names took a bit of a breather.

[00:00:58]Amazon, uh, Google were in the red here today along with Nvidia, AVGO, Micron, a lot of the semi-names. But when you look at like the broad semi-names, they were very, very green as you can see as well as the rest of the market. You know, most sectors were actually green as you guys can see right here with the S&P 500 gaining.4% for the day. software leading the charge along with healthcare and technology all up 1% the RTY outperforming up.91% [music] very very strong day from the RTY right here the majority of sectors green and this is really positive considering all like the headlines that we had with brand coming into this Friday a lot of bad headlines a lot of uncertainty but we'll talk about where we are with that as the [music] video goes on there was only one red sector that was XLC and that's because Google is the biggest weight in that and that was down 1.21% but all in all green across the board growth leading the charge but it was just green through and through broadly across the board. You can see we did see a little bit of a step back here in large cap core and again this probably has to do with Google because Google is in this core segment of the market right there but just green through and through uh people uh buying US stocks in aggregate and just buying equities in aggregate in Europe, Asia, Australia.

[00:02:16]The only red we saw was sort of this South American trade and that has to do with some political uncertainty we're seeing right there. But that didn't derail North America, the US, Canada, the 51st state as well. All in all, guys, very very strong day across the board. And the reason being, well, it's mostly because the market was anticipating this news from Donald Trump this weekend and we got it right. Donald Trump said is in the Oval Office at the White House where he just had a very good call with President Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and bin Zed of the UAE and largely if we just skip past all of the massive conference calls all of the names he had a call with you can see an agreement has largely been negotiation subject to finalization between the United States of America and Iran and the various other countries as listed separately he had a call with Prime Minister Abibany and Yahu of Israel which likewise went very well.

[00:03:07]Final aspects of the deal are currently being discussed and all will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the straight of Hormuz will be open. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[00:03:16]And now what's important about this is he notably left out the uranium deal or the nuclear deal. And I think that has to do with many other elements, but the fact that he's saying the trade of Moose will be opened with many other elements.

[00:03:28]They probably came to a nuclear deal right there. Very, very good stuff.

[00:03:33]Markets are rallying on the weekend. At least weekend markets are rallying.

[00:03:36]Bitcoin, Ethereum, cryptocurrencies are up on the back of this news in a big way, might I add. But guys, we may actually have a deal come as soon as this week. Very, very good stuff. Other news, Kevin Walsh was officially sworn in as Fed chair Friday afternoon, commencing his 4-year term as leader of the US Central Bank. But these two things really, really drove the market, particularly this right here. And we'll talk about it a little bit more in the chart segment. Now, we don't know what the agreement is, guys, but very, very positive developments and I think it's going to be very favorable for the US.

[00:04:10]Now, looking at other market movers right here, Dell was up 16% on the day as hardware stocks vaulted higher because of Lenovo's better than expected earnings, right? Really, really strong earnings from Lenovo. It reported its highest PC, tablet, and smartphone sales in five years. This is probably a read through to Dell, a read through to Apple, and a read through to a whole bunch of other names. PC sales increased 28% year-over-year and share of Chinese consumer electronics rose 19%. Just crazy numbers and that's why DA was a Qualcomm was up 11.6% here today after the automaker Stellantis announced an expansion of its multi-year technology collaboration with Qualcomm. The expanded deal will integrate Qualcomm's Snapdragon digital chassis and Snapdragon's ride pilot platforms.

[00:04:56]across millions of Stalantis future vehicles. These systems are designed to power features like advanced driver assistance, in-car cockpit functions, and connectivity. And the Neste Lauder was up 12% today. Big moves year in the market after late stage merger talks with Spanish beauty group PO ended. PO stock fell 13%. Bloomberg reported that Charlotte Tilbury's compensation demands for the deal were a sticking point in the negotiations. Charlotte Tilbury sold a makeup brand deployed in 2020. Esther Lauder, which owns the cosmetic brand, including Clinique and MAC. So, the company remains focused on executing its turnaround strategy. And then for everything we saw today here, guys, there was 2,800 to fly this, 3,400 advances. Really good market breath.

[00:05:37]It's really good to see market breath coming back into the market. We saw this on Thursday and Friday. And again, I apologize for not having any videos up this week, guys. I endeavor to do better, but we had great market breath uh this week. We did see outflows in both the New York and the NASDAQ stock exchange. This generally happens on a Friday though. We see hectic outflows in these exchanges, but the S&P 500 was still up regardless. Market momentum looks sound across the board from the shorter term, longerterm, and medium-term moving averages. And let's hop on the charts. Now, guys, looking at the charts right here, you can see that we actually had a very good day on Friday. Now, this is Friday's close.

[00:06:11]Small caps, midcaps really leading the charge, up about, you know, just shy of 1% in that region. and then large caps lagging a bit behind, but that's because they have been the leaders. So, we might actually see this might be the start of a little bit of a reversal trade right here. Especially if we do get an Iran deal, oil does come down, yields do come down, you're going to see that uh inflect in some of these smaller names, the midcap names. I'm talking RSP, I'm talking Russell 2000, I'm talking S&P 600 and 400 midcaps and small caps. And uh yeah, we might see a bit of a lagging here in the the mid caps, but that all depends on the deal. if we can get our our oil lower, if we can get the straight over moves over and if we can get oil transiting through the straight.

[00:06:51]Now, international stocks were actually down here on the day. So, there's definitely propensity for US stocks as you can see uh right here. International stocks, this is international stocks, developed markets excluding America was down.33%. But they have actually performed pretty well over the last month, I will say. Now, on the back of the Trump deal, crypto soaring, Ethereum up 2.5%, Bitcoin up 1.6%. And that doesn't tell the full story because if we go to the day right here, you can actually see that at one point uh Bitcoin was down 1.77% and then going to as high as up 2.3% on the day. You're looking at a 4% swing uh from Pete the trough right there. Very very solid stuff um from Bitcoin as a whole and from Ethereum crypto as a whole on the back of this potentially agreement with Iran. So we'll see how that plays out in the future. And now looking ahead at some of our other macro movers, the volatility index is was down. Yields were down on the day. The dollar did creep up ever so slightly. Treasuries gained half a percentage point. Gold and silver were down. Crude oil at that $95 region, $96 region below 100. I think ultimately this is where crude is probably going to remain until we get a solid deal, which we may have this week.

[00:08:02]We're still waiting on details, but we'll see what those details are. And then um when we look at some of our DRAM names, right, our memory names, they were up uh or down 2.8%, semiconductors up 1.4%, software up 1.65%. But looking at the S&P 500, guys, we've been saying for a while now um that you want to be buyers of dips in the S&P 500, and that's exactly what we got right here.

[00:08:24]We bought you had you bought the dip at these lows, you'd be up significantly.

[00:08:28]We broke above these highs, and now what we're doing is we are consolidating here at the top end of this range in the S&P 500. You can see that we sort of had oneway traffic to the top, but we did have a pullback, you know, just a couple of weeks ago right here. Buyers came in, bought the dips, and I think we're going to have a very, very green candle on Monday with this Amuz uh situation. Uh if we do get a deal, and if the deal is accreative, right, I think you could see 7500 7550 on the day or the S&P 500. I think that is definitely a doable target right there.

[00:09:00]The S&P 500 is quite extended above its 200 day. That's something that you do need to be wary of. And we are certainly in this overbought territory lane right here. We did work off some of those overbought conditions on this pullback right here, but we're still largely, you know, at the upper end of the 80% range as you guys can see uh right there. Now, when we look at the NASDAQ 100, it has performed more than the S&P 500, but the charts look oh so similar, quite extended above its 200 day uh moving average, but again, we're looking for a very, very green day. And the truth is if we do get a solid deal right is going to come down and crud is going to come down significantly. I mean you could possibly see crude in the low 80s potentially mid70s right and that means probably the 10-year yield is probably going to drop maybe to this region right here 4.2 maybe the 4.1% range somewhere I would call it probably here probably drop somewhere about there 4.3ish at at the high end. And if that is the case you're going to see the dollar weaken ever so slightly. You're going to see gold catch a bid. You're going to see silver catch a bid. You're going to see small cap equities catch a bid. And you're going to see stuff like the RSP is going to outperform. And it does look like it's breaking out right here. I mean, we've had this resistance level.

[00:10:13]Looks like it's ready to break out to the upside when you look at the RTY.

[00:10:17]Very similar situation. Now, on Monday, I do believe we have a non-trading day.

[00:10:22]So, this could be a 3-day weekend due to Memorial Day, which is a federal holiday, but there will be other markets open. the international markets will be open, crypto open as well. Now, let's actually talk about some of our higher beta names. So, let's say you don't want to buy the indices, you want to buy some higher beta names uh to take advantage of this run. I think there's some really, really good stocks that you could look at. The very first one we want to look at is CLF. This is Clearfield. Now, this stock has run up a lot, but I still think it is extremely undervalued, and you'll be taking advantage of the AI trade when you buy.

[00:10:57]buy this. Now, if you don't want to buy a chart like this, you want to buy something that's maybe a bit more reasonably valued, you can look at maybe some of the software names. Service Now is one of them. Looking really, really good at these levels right here. I really like the valuation on this. I do like the valuation on Apploving and this also has a little bit of momentum. You can see it's um consolidating at these levels uh right here. But I like Apploving as well. So, those two software names I like the most. Reddit didn't perform super well on Friday. As you guys can see right here, down 5.58% and that is on the back of some news we got from Meta. They're releasing like a Reddit clone called forum. I don't think it's going to impact Reddit at all. I think Reddit will be completely fine with it. But you can see that when we look at this long trend line that Reddit is on, we're approaching that level right here. And that level would be the 130 level. If we can get there, guys, that is a strong strong buy for Reddit.

[00:11:51]But you could see right here if we actually just zoom in a little bit, right? Reddit actually was up 18 to 20% on its earnings. It kept going higher and now it's actually below the move on its earnings after growing revenues like 70% increasing margins, buying back a billion dollars of its stock. It's below that. So, I'm not sure what it's going to take for Reddit to get out of its way. super profitable, growing revenues in with insanely high margins, but it's in the software stack and it's just not working right now compared to other names that are working. Some of those names include SanDisk. Now, guys, SanDisk and another name right here, Micron, I think are really, really good buyers even at these levels. And let me tell you why. This is a post I put up on my Twitter right here. Now, at a 10 times forward PE, Micron should trade at $1,000. And that's based on $100 in earnings per share. this calendar year.

[00:12:43]Okay, a 10 times forward PE, Sanders should trade at $ 1,700, right? Again, this forward PE uh on this year's earnings of $170 on 10 times forward PE.

[00:12:52]We are in a new paradigm. I think we're moving away from the cyclicality of memory and storage and it's going to be something that's more structural for the internet for AI and both stocks should trade at minimum 15x 4p. If that's the case, we're going much much higher because Micron is only $751 right now. SanDisk is only $1,400. These should be, you know, in Micron's case, probably a $1,500 stock and in Sanders's case, probably like a $2,500 stock.

[00:13:16]These are still trading tangibly uh below their value. And if you want exposure to both, you just go ahead and buy the DRAM, the Round Hill DRAM ETF, right? So, this thing has done nothing but literally just uh move to the upside. We did see a little bit of pullback here. Didn't give you much room to buy. Had you bought, it's going up, [music] up, up, and away up significantly from its IPO. If we go to the daily chart right here, it's only just started trading. Um but yeah, I really really like the name. I I have this name. Um so those are the stocks that you can look at if you really do want to uh uh get exposure to the AI trade as well as the software trade. And I think that's ultimately where you want to be. Software looks really really attractive long-term. I think if you have a long-term time horizon, I think a lot of these the higher quality software names like Service Now, like Reddit, uh will be okay. I think they're going to do very very well. You just kind of need a long enough timeline for that to play out in the year and now. There's definitely strength in semiconductors.

[00:14:07]There's definitely strength in these memory names and I think that ultimately you should have a little bit exposure to those names whether individually or the DRAM uh ETF um for the most part. Also, I think if you are looking at the software trade, you could possibly look at Bitcoin as well. Now, we actually said this was going to happen to Bitcoin. Now, we said uh this was our buy zone right here for Bitcoin and we were accumulating throughout this entire time frame. It was quite painful because pretty much from January all the way into April, right? Uh Bitcoin was trading sideways. It was very very painful. But we did actually catch a bid right here. And we did actually rally significantly. I mean, if you take it from these lows right here to the top end of the range, a 26% move right in a very short period of time. In about 4 weeks, we had a 26% move. Then we did say um at the 200 day moving average right here. We were actually going to see a little bit of resistance. We did see that. And I think this is ultimately where we're going to find support. We've seen it today. Bitcoin rallying about 4% off the lows on that moose deal. But I think what needs to happen now is Bitcoin, if the 200 day moving average continues to do that, Bitcoin needs to probably go up from here, break above, and then make the next move to the upside. The chart will probably look similar to the RSP where you made resistance, pulled back, made resistance, pulled back, and then when you get back to this level, you break above, right? Retest that same level, and then go from there. A typical pattern. If we could see something like that where we rally up, right, break above, retest, and then go. I mean, that could probably open up the 88, 92, 96, $100,000 levels very, very quickly. I mean, once we break above this 200 day moving average, we're looking at the 100K level right here. And then we're looking at like 110 potentially all-time highs at the 120,000 level. But baby steps at a time. And let's first go ahead and retake that 200 day moving average right there. Ethereum not looking quite as good, but again, if Bitcoin is going to move higher, Ethereum is going to move higher. And we want to see a bounce right here uh on the way to the upside. ever. Ethereum has not acted very very well in aggregate. Looking at international stocks, the chart isn't super super great, but I think we're probably going to see a breakout above these highs on Monday, especially if we get a deal that's going to coincide with oil moving lower, and I think you're going to see gold rip. You're going to see silver rip. Now, silver looked really great right here. Not looking good right now, but I do think this is a good place to go ahead and enter into silver longs if you're looking for potentially getting back up to those highs right there. But all in all, I continue to maintain the fact that you want to be buyers of dips, and I think 8,000 S&P 500 by the end of the year is not crazy. But guys, looking at sentiment, this is the double AI sentiment survey, and we've seen sentiment become slightly more pessimistic as the weeks have gone on.

[00:16:49]We've seen um a bearish sentiment tick up significantly here into that like low to mid40 range. We saw bearish sentiment tick down. This is actually really really good because it gives us fuel for the upside. We do know that markets like to climb the wall of worry and pessimism and we often see declining bullish sentiment in those scenarios. And when that is the case, you want to get ever more so bullish, especially when we look at the fundamentals. The S&P 500 price has been largely driven by earnings. You can see here forward earnings per share growing significantly above the consensus expectation when the multiple has actually come down as the S&P 500 has actually rallied about 8% year to date, right? So multiple contraction that's a good thing because of earnings growth and just insane. Who would have thought that would have been the case in 2025? And for those screaming bubble, normally what happens here is you see the market go up significantly on the back of multiple expansion with very low earnings. We're just not seeing that right now. And this isn't bubble territory. At the same time, economic growth, Q2, GDP sitting above the 4% handle, very, very strong. And when we look at the labor market, this graph shows the vacancy to unemployment ratio, a key measure of labor market tightness, which spiked sharply during the post-pandemic boom, peaking around 2 in 2022, but has since cooled significantly, falling to nearly 1.1% region. As you can see, a much lower vacancy to unemployment ratio indicates a cooler labor market with fewer job openings relative to unemployed workers, which should ease ease wage pressures, inflation pressures, help reduce inflation, and give the Federal Reserve possibly more rooms uh to at least cut rates without overheating the economy.

[00:18:27]So, this is largely a good thing. And at the same time, we're not expecting a recession. The odds of America having a recession are down to lows of 16% this year. Odds were nearly 40% in March when oil crossed $100. And that's when the Iran wars, Iran war fears peaked. Now looking at data next week, we largely want to pay attention to core PCE, durable goods, the GDP numbers, and then we got personal income and personal spending month over month. That's going to coincide with the PCE numbers right there. So essentially, this is like a good indicator of labor market data. So we're getting a whole range of economic data next week. We also get quite a bit of earnings, guys. You can see right here on Tuesday, um, we don't really get much of anything apart from AutoZone.

[00:19:06]and then Zcala. After the close, we then get Dick Sporting Goods, Bath and Bodywork, Scotia Bank, uh PDD as well, Abberrombie, Fitch, and They're all reporting before the open. And then Salesforce, Snowflake, and Marll uh after the close along with HP, Eberure, uh which is a big uh name on Twitter right now that's trending. Thursday, we have Best Buy, um Photronics, Home Foods, right? And we also get Dell, UiPath, MongoDB, and Costco also along with Autodesk and Sentinel One Octa as well. Wow. So a lot of um career names reporting sit one octa right there zcaler as well here after the close and then nothing on Friday. So guys, it's actually a really big week for software names, right? We got a lot of big software names reporting. [music] So, uh, that's really going to see that's going to be a big test for software as a whole, guys. But if you've made it up until here, thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, please subscribe, hit the notification bell as well as the like button, and leave a comment for the algorithm. She is.