LIVE NOW: NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Ajouté : 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]and ocean wave heights in better detail than ever before.

[00:00:04]Noah's ability to adapt the Hurricane Hunter aircraft configuration and test new instruments helps us deliver even new, more valuable information to the forecasters while also being applying test laboratory for rapidly evolving technology.

[00:00:19]One technological advancement to note is deploying uncrrewed aircraft from these P3s into the storm environment. These drones launched from the P3s can dwell for long periods of time in the vertical profile, collecting essential lowaltitude data on tropical cyclone structure. Last year, for the first time, one achieved a record setting 120 minute flight duration and provided the first ever video from an uncrrewed aircraft system from inside the storm.

[00:00:48]from the ports around the Gulf and east coast. Noah also deploys autonomous uncrrewed marine systems to intercept these storms and gather critical ocean observations. All of the data collected by our aircraft and uncrrewed systems is provided to the meteorologists at Noah's National Hurricane Center. This real time data allows them to constantly refine the forecast, helping them to keep people safe, allow communities to prepare and minimize unnecessary evacuations.

[00:01:18]While technology continually advances, the most valuable resource that operations rely on today is our dedicated team of technical professionals and Noahore officers. They are crucial for operating and maintain our aircraft, and they are part of Noah's team that is dedicated to serving the public. Today's annual hur Atlantic hurricane outlet is one of the many ways the agency offers to encourage the public to prepare ahead of and throughout the hurricane season. I would now like to introduce our next speaker.

[00:01:48]This individual has been a scientific leader in weather prediction for most of his professional career. Please join me in welcoming Noah's 12th under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmospheres and the Noah administrator, Dr. Neil Jacobs.

[00:02:07]>> Thank you Admiral Kerry for that introduction and also thank you for hosting this event.

[00:02:13]I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the team here at AOC, the hurricane hunter pilots, the crew, the maintenance folks that maintain these planes.

[00:02:25]We're here to announce Noah's 2026 hurricane season outlook. But before I get to the numbers, I want to recognize the incredible efforts and expertise and dedication of the Noah's workforce.

[00:02:36]Noah's home to the world's leading scientists, model experts, and meteorologists. Their work ensures public safety, national security, and enhancement of the US economy. In the National Weather Service, we have forecasters that issue accurate forecast across the country 24/7 for all types of severe weather. I know we're talking about hurricanes today, but they're working all year long, winter storms, tornadoes, floods, uh wildfire events.

[00:03:07]All the models that we run run at INSEP, the National Center for Environmental Prediction. This includes the National Hurricane Center.

[00:03:16]I'd love to thank the National Hurricane Center for their excellent work, particularly last year where they set a new record in forecast accuracy for intensification.

[00:03:26]Hurricane Melissa was accurately predicted to rapidly intensify before the storm even developed.

[00:03:34]We also have Noah research. This is where the numerical weather prediction is developed. These are the folks that develop the models. We have the hurricane analysis and forecast system or haps which is going to be our flagship model this year for cyclone intensity.

[00:03:48]They also work on cutting edge development of instruments. This includes the drones and the gliders.

[00:03:55]We're now getting into the world of running artificial intelligence space forecast models. This work's being developed there too. as well as the work at hurricane research division which advances our understanding of rapid intensification of these storms.

[00:04:11]We have the national ocean service which develops the coastal and ocean models obviously essential to understanding sea surface temperature and air sea interaction. They also manage the ocean observing systems ensure the waterways and the ports are open after a storm.

[00:04:29]We have NZDIS, the branch that handles Noah satellites.

[00:04:33]We have geostationary satellites, which are the GO, which you're probably familiar with with the visible satellite imagery of these hurricanes and also the infrared. But we also have low Earth orbiting satellites with JPSS.

[00:04:46]This is where the microwave sounders come in. This is the data that drives a lot of the numeric weather prediction models.

[00:04:54]We also have the marine aviation and operations as well as the Noah Corp, the folks which you see here today. They're in charge of the ships, the planes, all the data collection, not just for hurricanes, but also fisheries management among other things. Behind me, we have the two P3s, Kermit and Miss Piggy, celebrating their 50th anniversary of flying into storms. These are 8 to 10 hour flights.

[00:05:22]They have the tail Doppler radar which you just heard about. They deploy dropons.

[00:05:27]We also have a high altitude jet and we'll bringing another two online here soon.

[00:05:32]These are planes that fly over the storms and deploy instruments through the storms. All this data goes into the computer models to better generate our forecasts.

[00:05:44]I'm incredibly proud of the amazing work that these public servants do for our country.

[00:05:52]Okay, on to the numbers for the Atlantic hurricane season. Noah is predicting a below normal season for 2026 with roughly a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of near normal, and a 10% chance of above normal.

[00:06:17]This equates to 8 to 14 name storms with winds at or above 39 mph.

[00:06:23]Of these, three to six hurricanes with winds at or above 74 miles an hour and one to three major hurricanes, that's your category 3 to five, with winds at or above 111 miles an hour.

[00:06:40]In the central and eastern Pacific, we're expecting a 70% chance of above normal activity. The eastern Pacific, we're expecting 15 to 22 name storms, 9 to 14 hurricanes, 5 to nine major hurricanes, and in the central Pacific, we're expecting 5 to 13 tropical cyclones.

[00:07:02]These percentages are based on multiple factors that represent a probabilistic distribution which includes a lot of information. But even though we're expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one. We have had category fives make landfall in the past during below average seasons.

[00:07:24]What's driving this forecast is largely an El Nino event.

[00:07:30]There's a 98% chance of El Nino conditions occurring later this season and an 80% chance that this El Nino will be moderate to strong in the Atlantic.

[00:07:42]The El Nino increases the vertical wind shear which disrupts the outflow at higher levels makes it harder for development of the eastern waves coming off of Africa to strengthen into storms.

[00:07:54]However, in the central and eastern Pacific, the El Nino reduces the vertical wind shear, essentially the opposite of the Atlantic, which is why we're expecting above average season in addition to the warmer sea surface temperatures there.

[00:08:10]We have several new observing systems that we're bringing online this year. As you heard about earlier, we have uncrrewed aircraft systems. We tested these over the last couple of years with black swift drones used operationally this year for the first time in the hopes.

[00:08:26]The tests that we ran in the experiments last year showed that the inclusion of this data from these drones increased the intensity forecast accuracy by roughly 10%.

[00:08:37]We also have uncrrewed surface vehicles and submersible gliders.

[00:08:43]In addition to the observing systems, we're doing a lot of work on the modeling front. We're introducing an AI based version of the GFS as well as an AI global ensemble forecast system, the hybrid GES. We also have a new AI based hurricane forecast model that we've developed in partnership with Google Deep Mind, which we used experimentally in last year's hurricane season.

[00:09:09]There also advances in the physicsbased models. The unified forecast system has been testing an experimental highresolution seasonal forecast system.

[00:09:19]We also have the office of water prediction which will be rolling out highresolution flood inundation mapping which couples to the hydraological forecast. This provides the emergency manager's visualization of predicted inundation at the street and neighborhood level.

[00:09:37]The hurricane center has some new communication products as well. They're implementing a new version of the forecast cone which was tested last year. This cone includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in inland areas.

[00:09:53]We're also issuing new products and services and support of storm surge forecasting for the Hawaiian Islands.

[00:10:02]Lastly, the hurricane center is testing an experimental version of even a newer cone. Since 2007, the cone has been based on absolute track air. But this new experimental cone accounts for forward motion and directional or lateral uncertainty. This is a much better way to independently visualize uncertainty in both direction and timing.

[00:10:28]For the official forecast guidance, go to hurricanes.gov.

[00:10:34]June 1st is almost here.

[00:10:37]Be ready. Have a plan. Listen to your state and local emergency managers.

[00:10:43]Preparation is essential. You can learn more at ready.gov.

[00:10:48]For more on storm preparedness, I'll now welcome National Weather Service Director Kin Grant.

[00:11:01]>> Thank you, Dr. Jacobs. some great information there for everybody and big highlighting some some big improvements going forward. So, it's very exciting time. So, just thank you and thank you Admiral Kerry as well. So, just saluting this incredible team behind us and I just wanted to to definitely echo what Dr. Jacob said just saluting the employees of Noah. It's an amazing group. I think I don't know every day I seem to be more humbled than humbled to be at the helm of the weather service and look at the whole crew here in blue and others supporting this mission. We can't do it without you. So, just a big a big thank you. Great to be here at AOC. Uh just an amazing place. A lot of operations, but I I definitely want to thank somebody that's here on stage.

[00:11:43]This is our lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Matt Rosen Cray. These numbers, right? They're just not, you know, just generated by random. A lot of science that goes in uh to these numbers every single year. So, I want to thank Matt and your team uh for everything that you've done and also congratulate Matt because this will be his uh last seasonal outlook as he's going to our lab to train the next generation of Outlook um scientists which is absolutely amazing. So, I'm glad to have him in the test bed train the next generation. So, he's he's absolutely amazing and he's here with his dad. Um dad, put it put your hand up there. So, congratulate both of them here for such a great job and all these years of strength.

[00:12:27]So seriously being being able to train the next generation to use things. But on behalf of Noah, the weather service, and quite frankly the American people, thanks for your service. Just absolutely amazing amount of work over the years.

[00:12:38]So it's great to be here. Um and and I really salute u aircraft operations folks. Wow. Um I got to fly in to Hurricane Helen um one of these, not sure which one behind me. We got to look where they were parked. But it was an amazing experience, but just an incredible um mission. Uh heroes, honestly. They go towards the storm so we can get people away from the storm.

[00:13:01]It's just quite simple as that. So, what you all do is just amazing. We can't do it without you. So, there's never been we've never been more prepared for hurricane season right now. Dr. Jacobs highlighted some of the new models, the new technology, service improvements.

[00:13:13]So, it's absolutely amazing. you know, looking at the new cone from the National Hurricane Center, just saluting everyone there, you know, always progressing, always going forward, just being able to have the inland effects, you know, just the cone doesn't stop, you know, the impacts don't stop at the coast. The effects go away inland. And we've seen that over and over and over again, including most of the fatalities end up being inland as well. So as a result, you know, looking at a cone that highlights all those inland threats is a big step forward for the public to understand uh what these threats are.

[00:13:45]And Dr. Jacobs also talked about the experimental cone. I mean it's you almost got to retrain yourself a little bit because we always talked about the last five years of error and you know you know 67% of the time the center stays in the cone one third out you got to retrain ourselves. It's okay. So having this new cone I think is a big step forward to actually represent about 90% of the possibilities of where the center could be. I think it's a big leap forward. So kudos to that new representation of it. Um I do want to announce as well with the flood ination mapping that Dr. Jacobs mentioned. Um by the end of September we'll have 100% of the country covered. This was a long effort and and and a lot of you in the media know this is a game changer and I hear it from the states. I hear from the counties. I hear it across the board across the country. They they said, "Hey, this is a gamecher for us to being able to represent what's been flood um in in a storm or even even a thunderstorm or a hurricane or whatever it may be." So, that is a huge step forward and and you heard the forecast for the Pacific. So having those exile services for Hawaii for the first time ever, the first time ever, um we're going to be able to issue storm surge watches and warnings for Hawaii, for most of the islands, the main islands of Hawaii, just like we do for the mainland uh Puerto Rico as well, US Virgin Islands.

[00:15:01]So that is a big leap forward as we really look at potential tropical surge flood mapping and all that for the Hawaiian Islands. So just really excited about that. The other tool that that is new and this one's exciting as well, getting some really good feedback on this one. It's the urban rain rate dashboard. So, it's a new tool that that we're really launching this year to look at urban, you know, urban areas, cities.

[00:15:24]There's 60 cities represented and ahead of time, you'll be able to see what the dangers are from flooding. Actually look at uh the information in those urban areas that are particularly dangerous uh for uh flash flooding. You know, the runoff isn't there. So you can get flash flooded really quick in these urban areas. So please check out uh all of these new products and services um and everything into this season. It's exciting. So look, preparedness um got to do it early.

[00:15:50]Oh, nice day. Hangar doors are open.

[00:15:53]Now's the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness day. The sun is shining. Let's get it done. So early preparedness is absolutely everything.

[00:15:59]Period. And the story um the actions that that you take today really gets you ready for the hurricane season. So we're ready, right? We're ready. So, we need to get the American public ready as well. And and don't let words like below, average. Don't let all those words change the way you prepare. And Dr. Jake said it just takes one. And you go back in time. I can think of some of these. Betsy was a September storm in 1965. And and Louisiana still talks about Betsy. You think about 1983, an August storm. Alicia, still talking about Alicia. 1992, Andrew was an August storm as well. So even in in below average, even if you have two storms, uh they they could be they could be big ones. We got to be ready. The other I'm going to repeat this every single time I do this is the fact that, you know, I think not just officials, but the public thinks the big storms are going to come across the Atlantic. You're going to see them. You're going to have weeks notice, plenty of time. That is not the case.

[00:16:59]And and this stat hit me when I was at NAC. Um it hit me, I never forgot it, and it still hits me today. Looking back in time uh at our records, every category 5 that's made landfall in this country is a tropical storm or less 3 days out.

[00:17:14]So they rapidly intensify and get here quick. So everybody know you think you might have a week on your timeline.

[00:17:20]Reality is you only have days. That's why that preparedness early is absolutely everything. And I will repeat that this position, next position, retirement. I don't care what it is for the next 20 years. I'm going to keep repeating that stat constantly. The other one too is especially a season like this, you know, there'll never be a hurricane just a we'll never make that a name. There's no such thing as just a cat one, just a tropical storm, just a cat 2. That is absolutely not the case.

[00:17:46]It doesn't matter what it is. You got to look at the size, the forward motion.

[00:17:51]Little wiggles matter on on the impacts.

[00:17:54]Even the smallest storm, if it's slow enough and big enough, is going to create catastrophic flooding and storm surge. Right? There's no such thing as hurricane Justa. We got to make sure the public pays attention to every single one of these systems and the actual impacts, not the category, not the name, but the actual impacts associated with that storm. And that includes the tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging winds, um even the high surf and rip currents as well, including storm surge. So flooding, we got to talk about flooding.

[00:18:22]I mean, we just got to keep repeating over and over the dangers of flooding.

[00:18:26]So you look at the last 10 years, over half of the deaths are are flooding and a lot of those are inland. Most of those are in vehicles.

[00:18:35]So we know what's causing the fatalities. We got to get the word out.

[00:18:38]We got to get the preparedness out. Need everybody's help to be able to do that.

[00:18:41]So, being able to look at where you live in a flood zone and be prepared for that where you got to go in the evacuations, getting ready, um, getting your home ready, look in that evacuation plan, and and I I don't think the public fully realized that six inches of fastm moving water will knock you off your off your feet. You know, 12 inches will carry most cars away. And even people that think, I got some big giant SUV, well, guess what? About a couple feet of water will wash that one away, too. It doesn't matter. So, we've got to keep reminding people of these things. Turn around, don't drown. Got to keep uh reminding everybody of that. Develop that evacuation plan now. And I think the big thing is please, you heard it already said by Dr. Jacobs. Please listen to those local officials.

[00:19:23]A lot of people say they don't evacuate.

[00:19:25]They don't want to sit in the traffic or travel two 300 miles. And the reality is they may only have to go 10 or 20, 30 miles inland. Please listen to the local officials. You have to understand uh what you have to do ahead of time and have that plan. Begin planning early.

[00:19:39]Been able to do that. Check on your neighbors. Check on your family. Make sure to have that preparedness kit for weeks ahead of time. Make sure you got days, if not a week of supplies ahead of time. Right now, there's no lines. Stock up. Stock up now. That's what I would do. It's a perfect time to go get that information. The non-p perishable food, medicine, the last winter storm event really, really opened my eyes on something. There were a lot of fatalities from people that didn't account for medicine and diialysis.

[00:20:06]We have to remind people over and over, you're not going to have access to those things for a week or more after a storm.

[00:20:12]They have to be prepared for these things. So, special any special needs like that, we got to remind them, be ready because those are preventable if we can get them ahead of time. And also make sure we account for the pets. Too many heartbreaking stories after these events, see the pets, pets wandering around. Got to account for the the pets going forward. So, planning on no electricity for weeks. Make sure to have that radio, the flashlight, the Noah weather radio. still the greatest tool.

[00:20:36]Have it. Got it. It'll alert you. You get the information uh when you need it.

[00:20:41]A couple of places to get information.

[00:20:43]The National Hurricane Center. Go to hurricanes.gov. Get the latest. That's part of the story. Maybe the biggest have the latest information. That forecast changes. There's something called uh with there's an old term when you look at the first forecast, you lock on to that. Social science says that.

[00:20:58]Can't lock on to that for that first forecast. You got to pay attention to it. Change with time. So, got to go to hurricanes.gov, get the latest. Go to weather.gov. Forecast offices across the country. Getting the information out going forward is huge. And also ready.gov. We'll hear more about that here in a little bit with uh FEMA and leisto.gov information and espanol. So there's information to get in in uh Spanish as well. Spanish speaking community. Listen to those local officials. And I'm going to wrap this up. Um look, even after the storm is still dangerous. Need the media's help, right? People think the storm's passed.

[00:21:33]I'm all safe. You're not, right? The indirect fatalities associated with these tropical systems usually exceed the direct. What a state. So the they exceed the direct. So that's everything from down power lines, displaced wildlife. That's, you know, contaminated water, gas leaks. It's it's it's this is harsh, but it's real, and I say it every time. No, after a storm's not the time to read how to use your uh your chainsaw for the first time. These are the realities of what we deal with. We see that we see what hurts people and and that we need the media to keep providing. Well, generator safety, I will also scream and yell as loud as I can about generator safety after Hurricane Laura with a what 18 foot storm surge. Mike, we lost more people to generator safety than we did the storm surge. We've got to keep reminding people to use generators safely outdoors, away from your windows. But we're ready, folks. We're ready more than ever at Noah for the hurricane season. We need everybody to be ready as well. I'm going to give uh give a chance for for FEMA here to hear from FEMA. So, we have we're lucky and fortunate. We are excited to have region 4 administrator uh from FEMA, Robat.

[00:22:55]Hey, good afternoon folks. Uh really excited to be here today to spend a little bit of time talking to you about FEMA and what we're doing in preparation for the upcoming season. I'll start first by saying that uh the partnership that we have with Noah, with the hurricane center, those are extremely important uh partnerships that we maintain all year long. we work closer together, but we really start to wrap up during this time. Some of the things that you heard here today uh talk about in terms of uh changes in technology and the ability to see a little bit further out are really important to us at FEMA because it gives us the ability to start our planning process uh much further than we used to do just uh 3 to 5 years ago. Uh so now uh we start looking at storms that are coming off the coast of Africa 144 hours out at a minimum. uh we start watching them well before then, but we really start looking at planning and getting ready uh that far out. And that's the the whole the whole organization, and I'll talk a little bit more about that. The um we also make sure that we don't lose sight of the rapidly intensified uh storms that you just heard about. Those are the ones that are really scary because we don't have much time to prepare, but we have greater awareness now. We can start earlier on those. And so it does give us an opportunity to again that work within FEMA, across other federal agencies and definitely our state partners.

[00:24:18]I'll talk a little bit about uh what we're doing at FEMA and I do that in terms of kind of three tiers. Um at the at the highest level, the national level we start with the guidance that we give from Secretary Mullins and and it's clear to us that he wants us to be focused and ready for this upcoming uh hurricane season. Uh at the next level, we have FEMA headquarters at the national level, if you will, where uh my boss, Bob Penton, uh has a a variety of variet variety of things that uh are on the menu now for us uh to be able to prepare at the national level. And that's not just uh us say here in region four, but it's also other regions that are impacted by hurricanes. region six, region three, even region nine, uh, which has responsibility for Hawaii and the and some of our territories. And so, we're working at multiple levels to make sure that we're focused ready within this region, region 4, our focus is the same as it is every year. We have a very deliberate process that starts months out uh, in terms of things that we need to do in order to be ready as a regional team. Uh, that team includes our state partners. Nothing that we do is not without our state and our tribal partners. So, we work very closely with them. Uh we have a series of exercises of rock drills and rehearsal concept drills that allow us to uh anticipate uh prepare and identify gaps in our resources so we can make adjustments uh when the time comes.

[00:25:53]The uh the last thing that I said is that emergencies are disasters are locally executed. They're uh state management. They're federally supported.

[00:26:04]So FEMA understands that we have a vital role in ensuring that we're going to be there for Americans out of our state.

[00:26:10]But we also understand that we we don't uh supplant the state and we have tremendous partners across uh this nation uh who who are ready and who have the ability to go out and take care of their their citizens. So one of the things that I definitely want to make sure that uh that we do as a transition to a close here is uh make sure that uh folks understand it is important to listen to and heed the advice give your local parties. They're closest to your specific uh area. They're the ones that are able to understand the details of what's happening uh inside of their county, inside of your city. So, please start there. Make sure that you heed the advice and the warnings that you get from them. Uh you will get plenty of uh early warning from other places. Uh you will get assistance from FEMA in terms of things that you can do uh to be ready for the storm. You just heard ready.gov and it's the next place to start. Uh and it allows you to look and see what are some of those things that you need to start doing in preparation. In terms of preparation, there's preparation for yourself inside of your own home, but also preparation where you're looking to see are there elderly uh family members, friends that you might need to think about. Do you have others in your community that might be at risk in the event that there's a storm? So, we want to make sure that we're kind of thinking about not just ourselves, but the others because response starts at the local level first, and sometimes that first responder might be the neighbor next door. Uh I want to echo the comments about uh what happens after the storm passes. So we shouldn't be so quick to kind of uh want to get out of the house because sometimes the conditions just don't allow it. One of the biggest threats that we have are down power lines. And what we need to do is make sure that we give enough time for the local authorities to get out, make sure that things are safe. Uh make sure that rescue operations that need to occur are not going to be hampered and that we're able to uh have that uh 3 to 5 days of uh perishable food and water so that if we are in a position where we have to be at home, uh we have what we need. Uh final thing I'll I'll close with again uh we have tremendous uh state partners and and we work very closely with them in preparation of the storm. The the things that you heard today about the increases in our ability and forecast are really going to assist us. Uh this FEMA team is uh focused on making sure that we're doing the things that we need to do uh to prepare for this season and we're excited about the opportunity to continue to work with our partners here today.

[00:28:46]Thank you, Rob. Before we move on to the Q&A portion of our news conference, I would like to reintroduce Matt Rosenr, Noah's lead hurricane seasonal forecast uh forecaster. Thank you, Matt, for all your work over the years. And now we will open up the floor to questions and answers. For reporters in the room, please raise your hand. and a member of our team will bring the mic over to you.

[00:29:10]For those of you joining us virtually, a reminder, you may ask a question by using the Q&A feature in the virtual platform. My colleague Marissa Anderson will read those questions from our experts. If possible, let us know who your question is directed to. We will do our best to answer all the questions in the remaining time available. And now we'll kick it off with the first reporter question from the room.

[00:29:35]What you got? Yes, sir.

[00:29:51]>> Hi. Uh, my question is for Dr. Jacobs.

[00:29:53]You mentioned the use of AI starting to play more of a role this year. Where do you see that going in the coming years and how much uh of a difference do you think it will make as we move forward?

[00:30:07]So we're looking at AI in several different areas. Uh when it comes to the full prediction of weather, we are looking at and operationally running end toend artificial intelligencebased prediction systems which are trained on historical reanalysis. The important thing to know is that a lot of those the historical reanalysis still uses a physics-based model to assimilate data.

[00:30:31]So whether we're talking physics based or AI based, these are all initial value problems. So we're never going to get away from the need to observe the atmosphere with these instruments. We're also using AI in the physics-based models to optimize some of the computation. So these physics- based models are millions of lines of code and some of these parameterizations you can replicate with machine learning. It all it does is replicate it, but it does it on a fraction of the compute. So there's a lot of efficiencies to be gained there. And then going further upstream, we're using AI as far as doing analysis and quality control on the observing systems themselves. So from from the entire value chain, uh we're looking at using AI in different ways.

[00:31:22]>> Yes, ma'am.

[00:31:26]Hi dear uh Laurel Blanchard, Fox 35 News. Uh from last year, what are the lessons learned going into this season?

[00:31:34]Because last year, of course, we saw the rapid intensification Melissa uh a couple of P3 missions actually had to abort mission because of the intensity of that storm. And you mentioned in the 2026 outlook that it only takes one storm, rapid intensification is possible. So, what are the lessons learned from 2025 that you're taking into 2026 season with that in mind? Ken, do you want to take that one? Okay.

[00:32:03]>> You know, you you brought up Hurricane Melissa, and I think I was thinking about it, Mike. I don't know if we ever talked about it, but you know, you you think about, you know, going to Jamaica with that storm and how it rapidly intensified. I mean, you talk about it only takes one. So move the Bermuda high over the Atlantic. How far am I? What do you think? Well, three, four, 500 miles to the west and then all of a sudden the storms curve a little closer to home. So you don't have to change a lot of the the parameters to be able to to get those storms in here. So that's why we always say, you know, just make sure to make sure everybody had that that early plan. So that's one of the biggest lessons learned is we just can't let our guard down. And I think, you know, just back to the some of the social science, you got to be able to remind the public, you have a season that that that that wasn't as as busy or they hear the words below or, you know, we don't have a storm. You can't predict when in in the season. But if it's a late start, then people let their guard down. So, the biggest lesson for me is just fortifying our messaging of that early preparedness that everyone has to be ready because it doesn't have to be a scramble at the last minute of everybody has planned.

[00:33:13]Jen, hang on a second. I'm gonna get you again. Sorry, but I'm gonna try to save you a couple of steps. Tony West in Orlando. Uh, very very interested in FIPS flood nation inundation mapping.

[00:33:24]You know, we've had a couple hundred year storms now coming across central Florida. How do you see this being used in the daily forecast, whether it be the local weather service offices or the hurricane center?

[00:33:36]>> Yeah, it's it's a game changer. That's what you're hearing from emergency managers across the country because visualizations everywhere. It's one thing to have a a flood warning out.

[00:33:44]It's a you know we traditionally in river flood forecasting we use something called an E19. So it's based on on history. What it was was at this level on the river you will get this flooding.

[00:33:55]You know the farm gets inundated or this this address this building. But those are for one point. So each one of those was at the actual flood point. So think about that. I don't live at the flood point. So, traditionally, that's the way we've done that. So, to be able to have a a depiction, an image that that goes beyond those flood uh points because that's where the gauge is is is a game changer because now you can actually see it visibly. So, this step is going to be this will flood, this isn't flood. The next big thing that it's going to take time to get there. It's huge computationally and it's also, you know, a complicated science. You know, eventually the next step will say what's the depth? So, it's one thing to say flood not flood. That's huge. We'll take it because you can save infrastructure.

[00:34:37]You keep infrastructure out of the the waters evacuations and guess what roadways because that's that's one thing that we have to talk about. The bigger the storm a lot of times it's the earlier earlier storm surge, earlier rain to cut off those evacuation routes well before landfall. So we have that's why the early early evacuations early preparedness is is everything. So that's the next big thing. So it's a game changer to be able to see that. And here's the last thing days ahead of time. So if you you're not saying, "Oh, that we have a a flood warning. We're dealing with it in real time." You could get ahead of the game to see something like that several days ahead of time.

[00:35:14]People have a chance chance to do something. Thank you.

[00:35:21]>> Other questions from the room? Yes, sir.

[00:35:29]>> Yes. Hi, Andrew Shipki with Wink News.

[00:35:31]We've seen terms already thrown around like super nino and what does that mean and what should that mean to some of the the forecasters?

[00:35:42]>> Matt, want to take that one?

[00:35:47]>> Yeah. So, in our official definitions, uh we're looking at a moderate to strong and that'd be one degree centigrade in the middle of the Pacific. Uh for moderate, a strong event will be one and a half degrees. Um so the super we don't use that term officially there we have our robot our definition in Houston for a long time. Um so but in those impact events from Elino when they do get strong you reduce that wind shear all the things that you know can't talk about right you reduce that windshare you make it harder for those storms to develop but it also does mean that some of those storms that do get closer to the coast can hit that point of water can hit a pocket of low shear then they can take off. So that's why be prepared despite that high shear environment.

[00:36:33]Yes, ma'am. We're here.

[00:36:37]>> Uh, this question could be for anyone.

[00:36:39]Uh, Britney Gomez from Weatherbug. Uh, I live on the Florida West Coast, grew up here, and Milton Helen were huge storms for the West Coast. People have lived here 30 plus years and have never seen anything like that in terms of storm surge. And a huge problem that we face was a lot of people didn't want to leave their homes on the coast because I've been through this storm. I've been through that storm. I I can handle it.

[00:37:01]I'm not leaving my home. So, what is your message on those people when it comes to not only this hurricane season, but once going forward where we get hurricanes and people don't really get the perspective of where they are relative to storm impacts because we've had many storms impact the Florida West Coast, but none of them with the storm surge numbers that we saw for me in Yeah. Ken, do you want to take that one?

[00:37:27]>> Yeah. And I I just appreciate that question because it gets into you know fact you've heard me mention social science three or four times and you know we have to we have to do a better job making sure that we it's one thing to say hey get ready for hurricane season but you have to understand the specifics of why does a person choose not to vaccinate and there's real reasons I mean they will cite my pets I don't want to leave the pets well there's there's you work with the local community you work with emergency management there's solutions to that there's there's others that I'm going to wait for the next forecast because it hasn't happened a while. Maybe it'll change. Maybe, you know, just crossing your fingers doesn't save your life. So, you have to be able to to be ready. The other part is there's the visualizations historically of evacuations, long lines of of of traffic and not knowing where to go. Again, I'm, you know, urging everybody and I spent, you know, four years in Florida, so I I I talked to a lot of people and I hear these things. they vision that that's not the real case. They don't have to go far. So if you're on the west coast of Florida and you have one of these storms, that storm surge is is very coastal. Now the wind, right, you have to get think about the safe place for the wind and you have the rainfall part of it. The deadly part, the actual highest chance of fatalities is that that storm surge part of it don't have to get away very far. So where do you go? 5 10 20 miles. That's what we got to keep educating people on. They don't have to go to Atlanta if you live in Fort Meyers.

[00:38:55]right? Go go go go go stay somewhere maybe in Orlando and you'll be okay. So that part of it just it's it's more than just preparedness. It's the specifics of identifying why somebody doesn't evacuate and get to that. The other part is some could happen at home, right?

[00:39:10]These are real things that people say.

[00:39:11]So we got to educate them. Yeah, that might happen but it's not worth your life and it's very difficult. And then there's the other part of it too. Some people can't. But you know the reality is we spent a lot of time up here talking about having preparedness kit different things. There are some folks that may not be able to afford that or some some people that are worried about evacuating. They got to spend money in the hotel. So, that's where they have to get the local emergency manager, see where those shelters are. And there's a lot of resources out there, but they they have to ask that sort of thing. And and the medicine, I'm telling you, that winter storm really hit me hard with some of the the loss of life associated with medical dialysis was was significant loss of life there. So I think there's an education though if you are have special needs there are resources but do that now don't do it during a storm everybody's busy right do it now yeah good to see you Chris WP I've got three challenges >> got new people that have infiltrated South Florida in our area that's a challenge I've got complacency with older folks that have been our area and I've got Milton tornado es that we had the the most deadly and historic outbreak that we had in our area.

[00:40:24]>> Do we have to go back to the basics and go back to square one to educate these folks because you have those newbies that have never been through a hurricane season before and don't know what to expect.

[00:40:36]>> I I even poked fun of myself up here for repeating things. You can't repeat it enough. So yeah, every single time when you you all out and the media is out there, the weather service is out there, Noah's out there doing the preparedness, going to schools, going to, you know, reaching the folks that that need us the most. Yes, you have to go go with the basics because let's face it, everybody in here, we know a lot about this, don't we? I don't I don't think we assume um some of some of the ground floor of knowledge all the time with some of the folks we're talking to. That make sense?

[00:41:06]I mean, we we say all these things, but you do have to go back to the basics. So you have the new folks in in you know from all over the country that come here for the experience their first hurricanes the population is growing so more and more of them and and of course the elderly. So I I think the other thing too is I encourage got to say this the right way. I encourage us to be in the right places to to reach the right audiences for preparedness because often we you speak to groups they're pretty weather savvy.

[00:41:36]That make sense? Are we at the homeowners associations? Are are we talking to the the people with pets? Are we talking to uh the elderly? Are we talking to the new? How do we find venues that to really identify at those people that need us the most? Does that make sense? So, I think we need to do better at at those type of things. We're not alone. It's media, it's weather service, it's FEMA, it's the emergency managers uh state level across the country and county and parish level as well. So, we know I guess the last thing is we we knew who was losing their lives in in in hurricanes for decades at the storm surge. We went after it.

[00:42:18]We went after it. We went after the people that are losing their lives. We have a storm surge watching. We have inundation mapping. And guess what? It's no longer the leading cause of fatalities. It's more rip currents. It's inland flooding. So when we know who's losing their lives, we know where to attack. Does that make sense? I think that's being focused.

[00:42:39]>> Great. Yes, ma'am.

[00:42:45]>> Dulver USA. Today I have a question probably for Ken and for Matt and it's kind of a multi-art question. With the such warmer than normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico or excuse me the Gulf of America, what does that mean for this hurricane season given that the Gulf can be a wild card when there's an El Nino?

[00:43:05]So, if you could talk about what we can expect from the Gulf given the El Nino and I think people don't maybe don't realize that it could be different than what they see in the Atlantic development region. And on top of that, this extreme rainfall that we've seen come up through the Gulf into the inland states that really probably don't think as much about hurricanes as we do on the coast. What's the message to those people who live in, you know, northern Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky about what they can see from these oncoming landfalling if we, you know, even if we get just one?

[00:43:38]>> Go for it, Matt.

[00:43:42]>> Yeah. So the Gulf is even still warm.

[00:43:45]Last year we didn't have any storms in the Gulf. That does contribute to the overall outlook. You look at the entire temperature of the Atlantic. Um but you're right, most of the effects of El Nino are deep in the tropics. So you won't have those long runups, those long storm tracks, you could get those storms in the Gulf that have the short awareness times. So that's why this, you know, early preparation now is really key, right? Do it now. And T said there's beautiful like clouds out in the sky right now. Do it now. Um but the Gulf you can end up with more of those storms. Um sorry at different times of the year, right? Normal um June and July is when you get those most of the Gulf storms but then you can have them throughout the season especially during the season you have that that's where the pockets more favorable compared to the entire Atlantic.

[00:44:36]>> Just to really double down on the inland message. Please print it. Please print it bold. Please increase the font. You don't have to be along the coast to be in danger from the impacts of a of a tropical system. And we've seen it over and over. I I could I can name how many storms you can go over and over. I look at Hurricane Camille even back in the 60s. Most of the fatalities were in Virginia.

[00:44:56]It's a strong storm. And you look at storms that hit from the Gulf Coast into Louisiana, but then we lose people in Virginia or New York City. Remember that? So you think about the inland dangers. These dangers are hundreds to even a thousand miles while inland. So, we've got to keep reminding people you you can think you're inland Tennessee, Virginia, uh the northeast United States, even a distant storm with a landfall a thousand miles away cause big impacts. We need everyone ready and and I think people feel pretty immune inland. Um look, go back to Helen. Let's go back and look at some of the pictures. Go look at some of the impacts there. Um and and the other part I guess relates to several questions. We've got to remind people just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it's not going to happen this time or next time because every storm is completely different.

[00:45:48]>> All right, we're going to take some questions from those participating virtually as well. I'll turn it over to Marissa Anderson for a couple of those readouts.

[00:45:55]>> Thank you, Kim. And thanks to everyone online for their questions. And I may paraph paraphrase or combine some questions in the interest of time.

[00:46:05]Given the likelihood for a strong El Nino, is there a stronger chance for landfalling storms in the Mid-Atlantic to New England?

[00:46:14]Matt.

[00:46:22]>> So, we are expecting that, you know, monitor the strong LTO, but this forecast does not contain landfall information right now. It's an active area. We're researching. I have a summer intern coming in to do really high, you know, high-tech, high speeded work on it. Um, and using the high-res seasonal forecast system, we're going to be able to dig into that data. Um, but there is that's that's not something we can do now. So mid-Atlantic uh northeast prepare just if one could make right especially you know in those in those season Florida can be busy in that area.

[00:46:52]>> Matt I have another question for you.

[00:46:55]When was the last time you favored a below normal season and how does this year's 55% compare to past years? So the last time we had forecast for below was 2015. Um during the last uh kind of you know big strong you know moderate to strong Elino where that NO value got to about 1.9. Um so that was the last time we started with a May outlook below normal. Um 55% right like that's we run hundreds of model simulations billions of compute hours looking at statistics that go all the way back to you know even the mid1 1800s for some of these. Um so when we run all those simulations, run all our calibrations on it, right? And there's AI based calculations in there for part of them. Um it's that's what we come up with. Um we've had years where we've had stronger probabilities and lower probabilities. There's a good bit of uncertainty from the West African monsoon this year. Is that going to be very supportive or is that going to be more of an less phase? Can some of that counteract um the detrimental effects from the El Nino? So we've calculated all those uncertainties in there and that's why we go to the 55%.

[00:48:02]>> I have another question for you. Matt, >> is the season probability referring to the likelihood that the season is above near below normal season activity?

[00:48:15]>> So this the 55% chance of below that's season probability, right? Like we talk about the the category with the most probability. So 55% chance below. So we'll say below season. Yes, it refers to the entire seasonal activity June 1st to November 30th uh for the entire Atlantic basin, not any specific subportion of it or any specific period of time.

[00:48:40]>> All right, and I'll take one more question.

[00:48:44]>> Since El Nino is strengthening as the hurricane season goes on, could that change the distribution of storms?

[00:48:58]Uh so one thing that we have noted right robust in the statistics of this are that during El Nino years you get less storms in November. Um but that's and then less storms overall. Those are the associations timing within a season is it most of them going to come during August or September or anything like that that it doesn't really give you any information on that. So you've got to be prepared now for that season. Right? you could end up with an early season storm and then not much later and the total is the same, right? So, it's taking that really taking that time to do it now um and prepare.

[00:49:34]>> That's all we have time for today. Uh for those with additional questions, feel free to reach out to our public affairs team at nws.pa noah.gov and they will help get those questions answered for you. Thank you to our speakers, Rear Admiral Chad Kerry, Noah Administrator Dr. Neil Jacobs, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, and FEMA acting region 4 regional administrator Rob Ash, and Noah's lead hurricane season forecaster Matt Rosenr.

[00:50:03]A reminder that the news release from today's announcement is available at noah.gov, and a recording of the event will also be added to that news release later this afternoon. That concludes today's press conference. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.