BitcoinI've Never Seen Bitcoin Do This in 48 Hours — And It's About to Get Worse

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]16 years ago today, a man named Llo Hanyich spent 10,000 Bitcoin on two pizzas. Those 10,000 Bitcoin are worth $777 million right now. And this weekend, Bitcoin just touched $74,344.

[00:00:15]Its lowest price since before this entire rally began. $917 million in leverage positions got wiped out in 24 hours. And right now, this Sunday morning, Bitcoin is sitting at $77,352, trying to hold on. And today, I'm going to show you every level that matters.

[00:00:33]The exact chart structure Bitcoin needs to repair this week and the one number that tells me whether this is the buying opportunity of the year or the beginning of something much worse. Good Sunday morning, everyone. Let's get into it.

[00:00:44]Let me start with what actually happened this weekend because you need the full picture before any analysis makes sense.

[00:00:49]Bitcoin broke below $75,000 on Saturday, breaching a level that had held as support for weeks. The intraday low was $74,344.

[00:00:59]In that single move, $917 million in leverage positions across the crypto market were liquidated in 24 hours. That number 917 million is one of the largest single day liquidation events of the entire year. The people who had borrowed money to buy Bitcoin got their positions forcibly closed as the price dropped.

[00:01:18]And that forced selling accelerated the move lower in a cascade that took Bitcoin from 77,000 down to 74,300 in hours. As of this Sunday morning, Bitcoin has recovered back to 77,352.

[00:01:31]The question is, was 74,344 the bottom, or is it just a pause on the way lower? Before I give you my analysis, I want to address Bitcoin pizza day because it is May 22nd today.

[00:01:43]And it actually tells you something important about where Bitcoin is in its cycle right now. 16 years ago on May 22nd, 2010, Laslo Hanich paid 10,000 Bitcoin for two Papa John's pizzas. The first real world Bitcoin transaction in history. Today, those 10,000 Bitcoin are worth $777 million. But here is the number that puts the current price action in perspective.

[00:02:07]Last year on Bitcoin Pizza Day, May 22nd, 2025, those same 10,000 Bitcoin were worth 1 billion16 million. This year, they are worth 777 million. That is a $328 million decline in the value of 10,000 Bitcoin over one year. Bitcoin is down approximately 30% from where it was on pizza day last year. That is a real and significant decline, and it is exactly the kind of data point that causes retail investors to panic and sell. But here is what I want you to understand before you make any decision based on that number. Bitcoin was also down more than 40% from its all-time high on pizza day 2022, 2019, and 2016.

[00:02:48]And in every single one of those cases, the people who sold their Bitcoin on pizza day when the price was depressing regretted it deeply within 18 months.

[00:02:55]The cycle is long. The short-term pain is real. The long-term direction has been consistent for 16 years. Keep both of those facts in your head simultaneously. Now, let me walk you through the chart because this is where the real story is. And I want to give you specific levels rather than vague observations. Bitcoin at 77,352 this morning is trying to rebuild above the 75,000 level that broke over the weekend. The 50-day exponential moving average is sitting at approximately 76,716.

[00:03:26]And this is a critical level because it has been providing dynamic support throughout this recovery from February's lows. Bitcoin recovered from Saturday's low of 74,344 back above the 50-day EMA, which is a technically positive development. But I want to be honest, recovering back above a moving average after a breach does not automatically mean the move is over.

[00:03:47]What I need to see is Bitcoin closing the weekly candle today above 76,700 to confirm that the 50-day EMA is acting as support again rather than as a ceiling.

[00:03:57]The 200-day EMA, which has rejected Bitcoin five times this month at approximately 82 to 83,000, is still the dominant overhead resistance. That level has not changed. The bulls still need to clear 82 to 83,000 on a sustained daily close to shift the medium-term trend from bearish to bullish. And 74,344 now becomes the most important support reference in the entire chart. That weekend low needs to hold. If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle below 74,344, the next meaningful support is around 71 to 72,000 and below that the 68,350 target from the wedge breakdown becomes active again. The structure is clear, the levels are clear. The question is whether the buyers who showed up at 74,300 are strong enough to defend that level if it gets tested again. Now, here is the most important analytical observation I can make about the weekend move. And I want you to really hear this because it changes the interpretation of everything that happened. The $917 million liquidation event over the weekend was large. But here is what is even more significant. It was driven primarily by leverage traders, not by spot holders. The onchain data that is coming out this morning shows that the long-term holder cohort, the wallets that have been inactive for over 155 days, did not move their coins meaningfully during Saturday's crash.

[00:05:17]The sell-off was leveraged futures and options traders getting wiped out, not the institutional accumulationbased selling. When a market crashes on liquidations rather than on fundamental sellers, the recovery tends to be sharper and faster than a crash driven by genuine conviction selling. The reason is simple. Once the leveraged positions are gone, there is no more forced selling pressure. The market finds its natural equilibrium, which is determined by the balance between spot buyers and spot sellers rather than by cascading margin calls. And the spot buyer in this market strategy absorbing 250% of new supply black rockcks IBIT with over 780,000 Bitcoin Fidelity adding daily. Those buyers did not disappear because of a weekend liquidation event. Let me now address Mark Cuban's story because it came out this week and it is genuinely interesting from a market psychology perspective. Mark Cuban sold his Bitcoin and made public comments saying Bitcoin lost the plot. Adam Back, the creator of hash and one of the most respected Bitcoin developers in history, publicly challenged Cuban's data. Back pointed out that Bitcoin is up approximately 25 to 30% versus gold over the same time frame that Cuban used to justify his bearish conclusion. Cuban compared Bitcoin unfavorably to gold in the short term. Back's counter is that compared to gold on a longer time frame, Bitcoin is still outperforming. Now, I do not take either of these views as definitive.

[00:06:37]What I take from the exchange is that Bitcoin is at a price level where smart, credible, experienced people are genuinely divided about the short-term direction. Mark Cuban sees losses and exits. Adam Back sees an asset still outperforming gold and stays. That kind of divide at a price level is actually a feature of accumulation zones, not a bug. The cleanest buy zones in Bitcoin's history have always been the zones where credible people disagree most sharply about whether the price is too low or too high. Now I want to give you the NASDAQ development because it is the most important institutional news of the week and it is being seriously undercovered in the Bitcoin content space. NASDAQ received conditional approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to list cash settled Bitcoin index options. The ticker will be QBTC. These are European style derivatives that track the CME CF Bitcoin real-time index and settle entirely in US dollars. No physical delivery of Bitcoin required. Now, you might be wondering why this matters when Bitcoin is sitting at 77,000 and the market just had a $900 million liquidation weekend. Here's why. Cash settled Bitcoin index options are the institutional risk management product that has been missing from the ecosystem. Every institutional investor who wants to hedge Bitcoin exposure currently has to use either futures, which require rolling, or options on the ETFs, which have limited liquidity.

[00:07:56]A NASDAQ listed SEC approved cash settled Bitcoin index option product from the largest stock exchange in the world gives institutional risk managers a tool that meets their compliance requirements in a way that existing products do not. This is the same kind of structural development, new institutional product, regulatory approval, major exchange listing that preceded every major wave of institutional adoption in Bitcoin's history. It does not move the price this weekend. But six months from now, when institutions are using QBTC to hedge their Bitcoin ETF positions, the structural market depth this creates will be one of the reasons the next sustained rally is more durable than the last one. Let me now give you the complete level map for the week ahead because this is what you actually need to navigate what is going to be a volatile 7 days. On the downside, 74,344 is the weekend low in your first reference. A weekly close above that level means the bulls defended it. A close below means we are testing 71,000 next. And the 68,300 from the rising wedge measured move becomes your medium-term bare target. On the upside, 76,700 is the 50-day EMA you need Bitcoin to hold as support. Above that, 78,800 is the first meaningful resistance from last week's bounce attempts. Then 80,000 is the psychological level that has been a ceiling all month. And 82 to 83,000 is the 200-day moving average wall that has now rejected Bitcoin six times this month. That is your range. 74,300 support on the bottom. 82 to 83,000 resistance on the top. Bitcoin is currently at 77,000, right in the middle of that range. This week's price action will tell you which boundary gets tested first. I also want to address something specific that the Coinbase data shows about the current state of the Bitcoin market because I think it is one of the most revealing pieces of information available right now. Bitcoin is now attempting a rebound around 75,500 after touching 74,300 this weekend, but it remains down by 2.7% for the week. The characteristic that I want to highlight is the phrase analysts are using. They are saying open interest held steady and funding stayed subdued during the recent liquidation wave suggesting traders were de-risking rather than capitulating. Let me explain what that distinction means because it is important. D-risking is when traders reduce their exposure. They close positions. They take profits. They reduce leverage as a riskmanagement response to volatility. Capitulation is when holders sell because they believe the price is going much lower and they have given up on the asset entirely.

[00:10:25]D-risking is rational and temporary.

[00:10:28]Capitulation is emotional and often marks the bottom. The fact that hashkey researchers Tim Sun described the weekend move as d-risking rather than capitulation tells you that the market structure is not showing the classic signs of a cycle bottom which typically involve extreme fear, panic selling, social media despair, and retail investors swearing off Bitcoin forever.

[00:10:49]What we are seeing instead is professional traders managing their risk in response to macro uncertainty. That is a fundamentally different market dynamic and it suggests the recovery when it comes will be orderly rather than explosive at least until a catalyst arrives that changes the narrative. Now, let me give you the three scenarios for where Bitcoin goes from here this week because I think having a clear framework for each possibility is more useful than a single prediction. Scenario one, the bullcase. Bitcoin holds 76,700 on the 50-day EMA through Sunday's weekly close today. Monday opens with ETF inflow data returning to positive territory. The macro environment stabilizes as the Memorial Day week begins. Bitcoin pushes toward 78 to 79,000 early in the week and if it can close a daily candle above 78,800 with volume, the path to 80,000 opens. That is the scenario I would call cautiously bullish and it requires the structural bid to show up at this level with enough force to overcome the d-risking pressure. probability in my assessment moderate dependent on ETF flow data Monday. Scenario two the base case Bitcoin turns between 74,000 and 78,000 for most of this week. Neither the bulls nor the bears take decisive control. ETF flows are mixed, some days positive, some days negative. Price action is choppy and frustrating. This is the most common outcome in the current macro environment and it is actually healthy from a market structure perspective because sideways chop in a consolidation range is how bottoms are built. One day at a time, one frustrated seller at a time, one patient buyer at a time. Probability, highest of the three scenarios in my assessment. Scenario three, the bare case. Bitcoin fails to hold 76,700 on the weekly close today.

[00:12:29]Monday opens with ETF outflow data continuing the streak from last week.

[00:12:32]Macro pressure from Treasury yields or some unexpected headline sends Bitcoin below 74,300 on a daily closing basis.

[00:12:40]The weekend low does not hold. 71,000 becomes the next test. This scenario is real and it is not detail risk. It is a genuine possibility given the current chart structure. Probability moderate, lower than the base case, but higher than I would like. The key to understanding which scenario develops is going to be the ETF flow data that starts coming in Monday. If institutional investors use the 74,300 weekend low as a buying opportunity and we see net positive ETF flows on Monday and Tuesday, that is the clearest signal available that the structural bid is holding. If ETF flows are negative for a third consecutive week, the barecase gains significant probability. Watch the ETF data Monday like your portfolio depends on it because this week it does.

[00:13:23]Let me also talk about the broader question that I know a lot of people are asking this weekend which is whether this is the time to buy Bitcoin or to wait. And I want to answer it with the specific data rather than with a vague encouragement. The MVRV Zcore, the most reliable onchain valuation metric, is currently around 1.1 to 1.2 two. At these price levels, every time in Bitcoin's history that the MVRV Zcore has been below 1.5, the 12-month forward return has been positive. Not sometimes, every time. Below 1.5, MVRV is historically the accumulation zone. We are in it right now. That does not tell you whether Bitcoin goes to 71,000 before it goes to 85,000. It tells you that people who buy Bitcoin when the MVRVZ score is at 1.1 have historically made money over the following 12 months in every prior instance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. But when a signal has a perfect track record across multiple cycles, it deserves serious weight in your decision-making framework. What I am personally doing, I have been holding onethird of my original Bitcoin position through this entire move. I did not add at 82,000 when I was tempted. I did not panic sell at 74,300 yesterday when it was scary. I am watching for the three indicator signal I have described in recent videos. ETF flows positive for two consecutive days. Daily close above 78,800.

[00:14:44]RSI recovering above 50 on the daily.

[00:14:46]None of those three have triggered yet.

[00:14:48]When they all three trigger simultaneously, I add back a meaningful portion of my position. Until then, I hold and I watch. The chart dictates what I do. Not the weekend volatility, not Mark Cuban's opinion, not Bitcoin pizza day nostalgia, the chart and the data. Going into this week, the calendar is Memorial Day week in the United States. Markets are closed Monday, May 26th. That means the first real trading day is Tuesday, lighter volume week overall, which means Bitcoin's moves can be exaggerated in either direction. Do not over interpret Tuesday's move. Wait for Wednesday and Thursday when volume normalizes before drawing conclusions about the direction. The bottom line for this Sunday morning, Bitcoin touched 74,344 this weekend. 917 million in leveraged positions got wiped. The price has recovered to 77,000. The 50-day EMA at 76,700 is the line to hold today. The 200 day MA at 82 to 83,000 is still the wall to break. NASDAQ got SEC approval for cash settled Bitcoin index options, a structural institutional development that will matter more 6 months from now than it does today. Mark Cuban sold.

[00:15:54]Adamback disagrees with his data. And 16 years after two pizzas were bought for 10,000 Bitcoin, the holder of those 10,000 Bitcoin, if they still have them, is sitting on 777 million despite the 30% decline from last year. That is the 16-year chart speaking. That is the signal that survives every pizza day, every liquidation cascade, every leverage wipeout, every bearish billionaire. Stay patient, know your levels, and I will see you Monday morning. Take care of yourselves. Good Sunday, everyone. And before I actually wrap up today, I want to address one more thing that I think is critically important for the people watching this video who are newer to Bitcoin and who may be experiencing their first real correction after buying in during the recovery rally. What you experienced this weekend, Bitcoin dropping from 77,000 to 74,300 in hours, 900 million in liquidations, scary headlines everywhere. That is normal Bitcoin behavior. Not comfortable, not easy to watch, but normal. In 2020, Bitcoin fell 50% in 2 days during the COVID crash. In 2022, Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 15,000 over 12 months. In 2018, it fell from 19,000 to 3,000 in 12 months. Every single one of those periods felt like the end. Every single one of them turned out to be the opportunity. I'm not telling you this weekend is definitively that opportunity. The chart will tell us over the coming weeks. But I am telling you that panic is the enemy of returns in this asset class. and it always has been. The people who bought Bitcoin during the COVID crash at $5,000 are extraordinarily wealthy today. The people who sold during the COVID crash because it felt like the end missed one of the greatest investment opportunities in modern financial history. The lesson is not that you should always buy and never sell. The lesson is that your decisions should be based on data and levels, not on how bad the weekend headlines feel. Right now, the data says MVRVZ score at 1.1 is historically an accumulation zone. The 50-day EMA at 76,700 held as support through the weekend breach and recovery. The structural bid from ETFs absorbing 20 times new supply has not disappeared. And the NASDAQ is about to list a new institutional Bitcoin options product. Those are the facts. The weekend crash is real, but the structural case is also real. Hold both simultaneously. Make your decisions from the data, not from the fear. That is the discipline that separates the people who make money in Bitcoin from the people who always seem to buy the tops and sell the bottoms. One last thing, and this is genuinely the most important number I can give you on this Bitcoin pizza day weekend. Bitcoin is fewer than 100,000 blocks from its next having in April 2028. At that having, new Bitcoin creation drops from 450 coins per day to 225 coins per day. ETFs are currently absorbing approximately 9,000 coins per day, 20 times new supply. When the having cuts new supply in half and ETF demand continues growing, the supply math becomes extraordinary. 225 coins created per day versus 9,000 absorbed per day, a 40 to1 demand surplus. The people who sold their Bitcoin on pizza day weekend at 74,300 while panicking about a weekend liquidation cascade are going to be the people watching Bitcoin at 150,000 in late 2026 or 2027 wondering what they were thinking. The 16-year pizza day chart tells that story. The data tells that story. And I will keep telling that story every morning until the chart confirms it. Good Sunday. See you this week. Now, I want to spend a few minutes going deeper on the technical picture because I think there is a specific pattern forming right now that most people are not seeing and that has significant implications for where Bitcoin goes in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

[00:19:33]After the weekend's crash to 74,300, Bitcoin has now established what technicians call a swing low. A swing low is a price point where the market explicitly rejected lower prices. Buyers showed up in sufficient numbers to reverse the move. The significance of a swing low depends entirely on what the market does when that level is retested.

[00:19:53]If Bitcoin retests 74,300 in the coming week and holds if buyers show up again at that level with the same force they showed up with on Saturday, then that level is confirmed as a support zone and the foundation for the next recovery move is in place. If Bitcoin retests 74,300 and breaks below it decisively, the swing low is invalidated and we are looking at 71,000 as the next meaningful test. The pattern I see forming is what I would call a potential double bottom.

[00:20:20]A classic reversal pattern where price makes a low, bounces, comes back to test the low, and then launches higher on the confirmation of the second hold. We have the first low at 74,300.

[00:20:31]We are now in the bounce phase at 77,000. If Bitcoin comes back to test 74,000 this week, which is entirely possible given the macro uncertainty, and the buyers defend it again, that double bottom would project a recovery target of approximately 81 to 82,000, essentially back to the level where Bitcoin was before the latest leg of selling began. That is the technical setup I'm watching for in the coming week. A successful double bottom test at 74,000 followed by a close back above 76,700 would be one of the most constructive chart developments Bitcoin could show us right now. It would tell me the bottom is in and the recovery has structural support from the chart pattern itself.

[00:21:10]On the other side, if Bitcoin cannot hold 76,000 this week and drifts back below 75,000 without a clean retest and hold at 74,300, the pattern deteriorates and the bare case strengthens. In that scenario, I would be watching whether the next weekly candle puts in a lower low below 74,300.

[00:21:27]A lower low confirms the downtrend is still intact and the measured move from the rising wedge towards 68,300 comes back into play. The market will show us which path it is taking in the next five trading days. My job is to be prepared for both and to respond to what the chart shows rather than to what I hope happens. The final thing I want to address is the Memorial Day factor because it is directly relevant to how you should interpret next week's price action. US equity markets are closed Monday, May 26th for Memorial Day. When US equity markets are closed, Bitcoin trading volume drops significantly because institutional traders who manage both equity and crypto allocations are typically not actively trading during US market holidays. Lower volume means price moves can be exaggerated in either direction on thin liquidity. A sharp move up on Monday does not mean the recovery is confirmed. A sharp move down on Monday does not mean the bare case is fully developing. Wait for Tuesday when full market volume returns before drawing any strong conclusions. The real directional signal will come from Tuesday through Thursday this week and specifically from the ETF flow data and whether institutional buyers use the 74 to 77,000 range as an accumulation opportunity or continue reducing their exposure. Those ETF numbers are the most important data in the entire Bitcoin market right now. and I will be tracking them every morning and giving you the honest picture of what they are saying.

[00:22:45]Happy Bitcoin pizza day weekend. Good Sunday morning. Take care of yourselves and I will see you for the full week ahead.