Dan Peña's Updates as of May 3, 2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hi kids.

[00:00:01]It's the um 3rd of May, 2026.

[00:00:05]And um I'm going to give an update on my take on the world as you see it or more importantly how I see it. And then in a few hours uh the first dinner of the seminar starts. I will start my one-on-one interviews with a few of the uh attendees.

[00:00:22]And in a in a couple of hours um and uh it's uh it's unfortunate we have a 16 that paid to go into the seminar and only 14 that showed up.

[00:00:31]Which always amazes me when people pay and don't show up.

[00:00:34]But more importantly, if there was ever a time to be attending the seminar since I don't give as many anymore, this would be it.

[00:00:41]Uh but there's a reason why I call you meatheads. There's certain people that are afraid of the war in Iran uh which I said oh uh 6 or 8 months ago, the only thing that President Trump hadn't done yet um was uh go to war with Iran. He certainly had already uh fired on it. And now uh he's cautiously uh optimistic that he'd like to get out of that war. We'll see what happens, but now we have the war there.

[00:01:08]We have the war still in Gaza and we still have the war in Ukraine.

[00:01:12]That's not counting the wars in the African continent which is a few.

[00:01:16]Uh or the rebel wars that are in South America.

[00:01:20]So there's always going to be a war someplace and uh of course the people in Europe are uh are um scared is probably the right word. They certainly don't want to see another World War on the European continent. And I don't blame them.

[00:01:33]Again, remembering I was an intelligence officer in the '60s when there still was an Iron Curtain. Uh and the there was an East Germany etc. And um they were petrified. Of course that was only 20 years after the war.

[00:01:45]Uh World War II.

[00:01:47]But there's never an easy time to make a hard decision and for some of you coming to the seminar which starts in a few hours um is uh was a hard decision. But I have several points I want to make.

[00:01:58]Uh first of which is uh my crack staff has been working on an AI project uh to uh I'm not sure the right words, mimic me or copy me or be able to answer uh appropriate questions or even inappropriate questions for that matter about uh the QLA model.

[00:02:18]Uh it is um complete or it's complete enough to to be uh turned out and um starting at this seminar the attendees of the seminar will get along with the thumb drive with the various bits and pieces that's not in the public domain, they will get access to the AI model. Um and that for them to use and uh answer questions. Now, I've I've tested it a couple times.

[00:02:45]And um the model even kind of sounds like me.

[00:02:50]I mean it uses profanity etc. And right now it'll be in a in a written form.

[00:02:56]Um but we're not too far away from uh a verbal form and the hologram I keep threatening you with that when I decide to pack it in.

[00:03:06]Um so it's but it will be exclusively for those people that attend the regular seminar.

[00:03:13]Attend the regular seminar. In that uh vein, although we start one tonight, the next seminar starts on August 10th which happens to be my birthday. Uh this summer in a few months, 3 months. Uh and it'll be the normal week-long seminar here. And for those of you um that are still waiting I'm not sure what you're waiting for.

[00:03:33]And um money's always a challenge. Now, it's hard for me to relate to that because money's never been a challenge for me.

[00:03:41]I just work longer, uh you know, I double or triple my effort and I was able to create more revenue for myself.

[00:03:46]That seems to be um not the case with the current generation or last generation and a half.

[00:03:52]Um I've told the story many times. My dad had to work two extra jobs when I got thrown out of the school district of Los Angeles to move to the San Fernando Valley in a house we couldn't afford. He had two security jobs in addition to being a full-time Los Angeles Police Department policeman uh so he could afford the house payments. He just got two extra jobs. Now, he would have liked to stay living in East LA where he didn't have to work two extra jobs, but he didn't complain, he just got two extra jobs so we could pay for the house because I could not I was not allowed after I tried to kill my teacher in in the fifth grade uh to stay in that part of the LA city school district. So if you want it bad enough, you'll find a way to pay for the seminar. If you don't, well then that's just too bad.

[00:04:35]Now, I want to comment on the war President Trump's sanctions or the lack thereof.

[00:04:43]Um [snorts] some of the people didn't attend the seminar because they're worried how the war may affect them.

[00:04:50]Okay, that's a fair point. Uh some of the people don't attend the seminars or they actually put off making a decision because of sanctions or potential sanctions.

[00:04:58]That's that's a fair comment. Um but so far there's only one company I'm involved with that the sanctions have um affected them. And they got a 25% uh sanction or tariff on what they do the Canadian company.

[00:05:14]To the best of my knowledge, all the rest of companies I'm involved with which is about two dozen have not been affected.

[00:05:21]Although a year ago when sanctions and tariffs were first announced, uh they were very concerned. Okay. Now, again, I'm not trying to sell the Art of the Deal Mr. Trump's book from 30, 35 years ago.

[00:05:36]But he's following the pattern of the Art of the Deal.

[00:05:40]He makes outrageous just not dissimilar to the QLA method. You make an outrageously low offer and then you can always come back.

[00:05:48]Just as I say in management style, you can start tight and loosen up, but it's virtually impossible if you start loose and try to tighten up.

[00:05:56]And that's what President Trump has done rightly or wrongly. He has uh made some pretty outrageous, braggadocious comments and he's backed away from all of them.

[00:06:05]Now, just for a point of interest for those of you that may or may not understand uh history of warfare but the Straits of Hormuz can never be blocked.

[00:06:18]And what the Iranians have done uh is within about 2 mi of land is not considered international waters.

[00:06:27]2 mi of land is considered sovereign waters. So they're taking stuff from refineries from oil production and they're going along the edge of the land within the 2-mi uh boundary and they're not breaking anybody's laws. Now, it is slower because you can't get as many ships through those 2 mi.

[00:06:45]And they're taking it all the way down the coastline apparently uh to refineries in India or to ports in India.

[00:06:53]Now, since Roman times that's been the case.

[00:06:57]Uh and so for now us to pretend or be so stupid as to believe uh and that's why there's still ships coming through. Uh I'm asked often asked, do you think uh President Trump will put troops on the ground?

[00:07:10]Well, that's certainly an option. Uh and he's got several thousand troops there now.

[00:07:14]And he's got our best and finest. I hope he doesn't have to do that because I don't want to see anybody harmed.

[00:07:19]Actually on either side. And I hate to see some of my former fellow colleagues in arms uh pay for this war with their life.

[00:07:28]But it is an option. It just as atomic bomb, a small nuclear device is an option.

[00:07:36]And I'm sure that's the last option or one of the last options that President Trump would ever consider.

[00:07:44]But he doesn't have all those aircraft carriers and all those men there um for show. In the beginning they may may have been for show. So I would not be surprised if we didn't put uh boots on the ground if the Iranians don't capitulate. But what has become clear which I knew since I've been in business in the Middle East for many years uh and having done business with some of the top guys uh both in the the Middle Eastern countries like Kuwait uh and uh Israel uh Israeli top staff uh they negotiate differently.

[00:08:17]And I I think President Trump is up against he's not negotiating whether he's going to build a building or not.

[00:08:23]You know, the the councils or the the local authorities may or may not give him permission unless he does something else he builds some bridges.

[00:08:32]Iranians have been doing battles like this for thousands of years and for those of you that are old enough to remember uh Iran and Iraq fought a 10-year war over virtually nothing.

[00:08:43]And millions of people perished unfortunately and that was over nothing and they stopped the war uh uh just as fast as they started the war uh over nothing.

[00:08:52]So it's tough to try to second-guess the Middle Eastern mind. Um and they've been at this longer than we have.

[00:09:00]And it wouldn't surprise me uh for Trump to to play that card boots on the ground. I hope he doesn't, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[00:09:08]I put out a notice on social media.

[00:09:11]Uh it had a horse.

[00:09:13]Okay? And he was standing on riches of some sort. And I announced the American Senior Living uh roll up uh what, 6 or 7 weeks ago.

[00:09:31]I announced it to my social media following.

[00:09:35]Uh all all platforms.

[00:09:37]Uh I announced it uh I don't believe I announced it in February at the end of my last seminar.

[00:09:42]Uh but I've announced it several times.

[00:09:45]And we we have a lot of participation.

[00:09:49]But there's a reason why I call you meatheads.

[00:09:52]For some of you that are listening to this right now this is your last [ __ ] chance to get rid of the dog [ __ ] acquisitions you've made.

[00:10:03]This is it.

[00:10:04]There isn't going to be another chance.

[00:10:06]There isn't going to be another god-like offer for worldwide assets in health care.

[00:10:13]I'm it.

[00:10:15]And if you haven't recognized that, you're a [ __ ] idiot.

[00:10:21]Ergo, I call you meatheads.

[00:10:25]This is it.

[00:10:26]There's not going to be a second chance.

[00:10:29]This is the mini tsunami, a good tsunami for you.

[00:10:34]And I know 15, 20, 25, 30 of my own people that I'm close to that haven't submitted their name um to the website for consideration.

[00:10:45]Shame on you.

[00:10:47]Do you have [ __ ] for brains?

[00:10:49]Maybe so.

[00:10:51]Are you going to hold out for a higher price?

[00:10:54]Unfortunately, some of you are only going to do two, three, or four acquisitions in your entire career.

[00:11:00]And when you get time to sell try to sell them or exit or even take a partial uh exit, nobody's going to be interested because it's too small.

[00:11:09]But those same two, three, or four acquisitions could be uh a [ __ ] in the great roll up.

[00:11:17]And because of the interest outside just senior living, uh we have uh hospitals, uh veterinary clinics, chiropractors.

[00:11:28]Uh I was going to say massage parlors, but I don't think we have any massage parlors.

[00:11:31]And from A to Z.

[00:11:33]And some of you that and you know who I'm talking to, uh that have talked about exiting this year, next year, or the year after should seriously consider it. We're going to again, we're going to value everybody the same. And that's what a lot of you are concerned about, the valuation.

[00:11:47]Uh your [ __ ] $3 million EBITDA is probably only a million six.

[00:11:52]That's fine. Don't bother. Or be be prepared to take a big haircut because you've been living out of the company and by the time you do take away add backs, etc., uh you know, your company's not worth anything. I'll give an example.

[00:12:06]I was the chairman of the most successful health care uh dental health care uh company limited liability company in the United States of America.

[00:12:16]Our average operating margin year after year was between 67 and 69%.

[00:12:23]We had an opportunity several years ago to exit it at a at a at a decent multiple.

[00:12:31]But the operator, the you, decided they would hold out.

[00:12:36]Well, life happens.

[00:12:38]And that's same individual um got charged uh wrongfully, in my opinion, by the United States government for for whatever, for the Department of Justice.

[00:12:52]And the valuation of the company by the time he did sell it was about 15% of what he could have gotten years before.

[00:13:00]I'll give you another example.

[00:13:02]12, 14 days ago I had a board meeting in Atlanta.

[00:13:06]And the CEO and the you in the deal that it was a very fine presentation.

[00:13:14]Five days ago I found out he dropped dead, the CEO.

[00:13:17]Dropped dead. We were talking about exiting next year.

[00:13:21]Well, he's dead now.

[00:13:24]The only one that's interested in an exit is perhaps his widow.

[00:13:29]But many of you that have companies that you started in various forms of health care, this is not just directed at health care, have not got your papers in order, do not have your life in order, do not have it so when you die, if you want your significant other to share in the spoils that you earned, it's set up correctly.

[00:13:50]And in some cases they're not even uh part of the ownership or part of your will or part of your trust. Shame on you.

[00:13:58]And there's a reason I call you [ __ ] meatheads.

[00:14:01]Cuz you are.

[00:14:03]Why would you work four, five, seven, eight years and then die, unfortunately, and all deaths are unfortunate, and not want somebody to benefit?

[00:14:12]I.e., your spouse. Maybe it's not your spouse. Maybe it's your girlfriend.

[00:14:16]Maybe it's your mother. Maybe it's uh one of your three kids.

[00:14:21]But you don't have your life in order.

[00:14:23]So the fact that you're not subscribing to the the website American Senior Living Roll Up doesn't surprise me.

[00:14:32]Get your [ __ ] together.

[00:14:34]Because when this thing closes, okay, in the next 18 months, uh and you come crying to me that why didn't you make me, Dan?

[00:14:45]And which most of you that don't sell when you should sell or don't liquidate when you should liquidate or at least don't take some chips off the table, it's because you've got [ __ ] for brains.

[00:14:56]Wake up.

[00:14:59]Now, on a happier note, uh in addition to pushing forward with the American Senior Living Roll Up, I'm also pushing forward with my Catholic Church finance.

[00:15:09]Uh and I am the unanointed apostle of finance for Catholic Church.

[00:15:15]We had some very important meetings in the last two or three weeks.

[00:15:18]Uh meeting with more of the hierarchy, CFO of the largest uh diocese in the United States, which is the largest diocese in the uh the world. We haven't agreed a pilot program yet, uh but they are open to discussions uh for a pilot program. And unlike the US government, I know how to negotiate better. And so the and it's very interesting. We came in with a presentation, a PowerPoint presentation that was spectacular.

[00:15:51]But it was aimed at the wrong thing.

[00:15:53]We had wrongfully thought that A was where their main emphasis would be based on their asset base.

[00:16:00]But when we got in the meeting, it was B.

[00:16:05]And I wasn't in this meeting. I was in New York trying to meet Cardinal Dolan, which is a whole other story.

[00:16:12]Uh they pivoted and because they pivoted correctly, we are very close to signing a pilot program with one of the biggest schools in California to assist them in their education, which seems to be more on point. They are not interested, apparently, in the fact they may run out of money. What they are interested very much in is teaching the kids now that are going to be the adults in 20, 30 years. So education, even though it's it's only second largest asset base.

[00:16:44]So we're very close to signing a deal with the nuns in this particular case.

[00:16:50]And Anthony Barbato I have to thank, who is the head of this. Um he may beat me to heaven as a goddamn saint now.

[00:16:57]I mean, he is I hate to use these words talking about the church. He's [ __ ] buddies with all these people now.

[00:17:03]But I mean, he's with these nuns and stuff. It's unbelievable. We're even having masses at our facilities in Southern California, which aren't set up to give like a church.

[00:17:12]So I I want to thank Anthony. I want to thank Rox Roy, who's the lead on this.

[00:17:18]the I've been invited to go to Rome in um June to uh the uh not the ordination, but Archbishop Hicks, who's the new Archbishop of New York that has taken over for Cardinal Dolan, I've been invited uh not private, there's a couple hundred of us, that to this a big ceremony in Rome.

[00:17:39]And so um I'm planning on planning on going, but man plans and God laughs.

[00:17:44]It's like the CEO that dropped dead a few days ago.

[00:17:47]And and and I I I I don't I couldn't go over people dropping dead and Peter Harasty, who died, unfortunately. And again, when you die prematurely or even not prematurely, it's always unfortunate. He passed away a few months ago um and there was nothing wrong with him. I mean, Peter was a great guy who's been on this podium many times for me trying to help me for what I helped him do with his life.

[00:18:12]So the the Catholic project is moving forward. I've I've said to some of the um ardent Catholics, and I'm not preaching for you to become a Catholic, but for those of you that are uh Easter and Christmas Catholics, um like I used to be, but now I'm not, uh if there's any suggestions or any help you can give us, it would be uh appreciative. Uh back in the '90s, one of my mentees who's passed away, his uncle was a cardinal uh in the Vatican.

[00:18:43]Well, he's passed away. And so um when I was always the youngest by 20 or 30 years. Well, now 30 years later, all those people are gone and I'm left I'm last man standing.

[00:18:55]Uh I look I look forward for the rest of this year in good health and I look forward to the next seminar after the one that starts tonight um in August. Hope's not a strategy, but uh right now that's the only seminar that we have planned in addition to the hardcore, uh which is in December, which we're already 60% full for the hardcore.

[00:19:16]Uh the short and hardcore uh with uh a lot less people.

[00:19:21]Thank you very much. God bless you.

[00:19:23]God bless the UK and God bless America.