BIG WEEK AHEAD FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS WITH BTC RESERVE NEWS & CLARITY ACT MARKUP!

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:05]Hey everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews.

[00:00:10]I'm your host, Tony Edward.

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[00:00:23]Okay folks, let's start with the price action because we've been seeing a lot of great price action recently with both Bitcoin and altcoins.

[00:00:30]So Bitcoin right now trading at $81,214.

[00:00:35]It had a very strong weekly close today, it's Sunday.

[00:00:38]So the weekly close happened today and Bitcoin crossed over $82,000 today.

[00:00:44]So it continues to show strength and we're waiting for the breakout up to about 84, 85K and if it's going to go higher, if it's gonna overshoot.

[00:00:54]Now one good sign guys, it's knocking at the door of the 200 day moving average.

[00:00:58]Now I've talked about the 200 day moving average over the years that when you are definitively above the 200 day moving average, you are in a bull market.

[00:01:06]When you are below it, you're in a bear market, right?

[00:01:09]Now can Bitcoin jump over the 200 day moving average and then fake out and go back down?

[00:01:14]Of course, so this is where we need confirmation and we have to be patient to see how this thing is gonna play out.

[00:01:20]But I like what I'm seeing here, the bulls are still in control per the MACD on the daily chart.

[00:01:25]If you look at the weekly chart, it looks really good.

[00:01:27]Bulls are in full control and the MACD is in the neutral zone.

[00:01:31]So it has not entered the or is not anywhere near the overbought zone.

[00:01:36]So this is very good and on the higher timeframe of the monthly, the RSI is pivoting upwards at the same level it has hit the bear market levels in the past and started the recovery.

[00:01:47]The MACD while it's still bearish is showing the bears are losing momentum but we still got ways to go.

[00:01:54]So this is where I personally think that this move that we are seeing here is not necessarily a move to new all time highs is just a relief rally, but it's a strong relief rally, a major counter trend relief rally because we had one of the lowest fear and greed index, one of the lowest oversold zones for Bitcoin and altcoins.

[00:02:16]So naturally the market went in the opposite direction but we could still see a major correction back down to lows.

[00:02:24]Now, one good thing, the higher Bitcoin goes let's say it goes up to 90K and higher and I think once it crosses like around 97K, I'm going to say, well, look, if Bitcoin corrects it's gonna be a higher low.

[00:02:39]I don't think it's going under 50K or 40K because it's higher highs and higher lows.

[00:02:45]So this is where Bitcoin is gonna have to give the confirmation.

[00:02:48]We don't have a crystal ball and we're gonna have to see how things play out.

[00:02:52]Look, I don't day trade.

[00:02:53]You're gonna see day traders sometimes in the comment section getting angry.

[00:02:56]Why don't you say it's bullish?

[00:02:58]Why don't you say it's bear?

[00:02:59]Because I don't know.

[00:03:00]I'm just going off the metrics I have today.

[00:03:02]I don't have a crystal ball.

[00:03:03]If I had a crystal ball and I could predict everything in markets, I would be somewhere on a beach on my own island, right?

[00:03:10]But sometimes people, they can't think.

[00:03:12]They don't have that IQ.

[00:03:15]But this is where I'm presenting the different scenarios to you.

[00:03:18]And we are hoping for the bullish continuation and we take our profits accordingly.

[00:03:24]So this is very good, guys.

[00:03:27]Now, one analyst highlighted the following, saying Bitcoin's still holding bullish structure.

[00:03:31]If it can break out of resistance, then it can run to 90K quick.

[00:03:36]So again, some analysts calling for these higher prices doesn't mean it's guaranteed.

[00:03:40]So please understand, we're talking probabilities here, but we are seeing some very bullish things like spot Bitcoin ETFs log the six straight week of net inflows for the first time in nine months.

[00:03:52]And even Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin ETF, it had $194 million in inflows with no net outflows or no net daily outflows.

[00:04:01]So things looking really good.

[00:04:03]The other factor we do have to pay attention to is the stock market.

[00:04:06]It has still been holding up even though it's in the overbought zone and it can hang out there because it's the index, right?

[00:04:13]The S&P 500 and NASDAQ, it can hang out there for a long time, even if individual stocks are overbought.

[00:04:19]So this is something to pay attention to because if it continues to show strength and hit new all time highs, that bodes well for crypto.

[00:04:27]Now, as we were talking about in the previous podcast guys, the altcoins are ready to steal the show.

[00:04:33]And we were highlighting Ondo.

[00:04:35]Ondo started breaking out, even total three started breaking out.

[00:04:39]Well, today, look at SWE.

[00:04:41]SWE is breaking out as well.

[00:04:43]So we got an altcoin relief rally starting here as we've been talking about, right?

[00:04:47]The rotational liquidity, this is very good.

[00:04:50]So somewhere to Bitcoin, the MACDs on these altcoins have flipped bullish.

[00:04:56]And even though some of them have hit the overbought zone, doesn't mean the rally is over for them.

[00:05:01]You do expect pullbacks and then continuation.

[00:05:04]So this is a very good sign, folks.

[00:05:06]And the confirmation of this is of course, Bitcoin dominance is breaking down.

[00:05:10]So we know that when all start to rally, Bitcoin loses some of the market dominance.

[00:05:15]And this is one of the key metrics you wanna look at right now.

[00:05:18]That dominance or the Bitcoin dominance, it's MACD has flipped bearish.

[00:05:23]So that's a good thing.

[00:05:24]You want it to go down so altcoins can run, right?

[00:05:27]So this is very, very good.

[00:05:29]All the respective metrics are lining up here.

[00:05:32]And we wanna look at the top alts like Solana.

[00:05:35]Solana is seeing a bit of a breakout as well.

[00:05:37]It's starting to move.

[00:05:38]We're waiting to see what XRP is gonna do.

[00:05:40]I think that's gonna be there soon, even though it's MACD has flipped bullish.

[00:05:45]It still hasn't picked up the momentum yet.

[00:05:48]ETH, I think will be an important one to watch closely.

[00:05:51]It's about to flip bullish.

[00:05:53]And I think as ETH starts rallying, a lot more altcoins are gonna follow, right?

[00:05:57]I don't make the rules.

[00:05:58]This is just what we've seen in the market before.

[00:06:01]So all around good news.

[00:06:03]And there are usually narratives that follow the price of these assets.

[00:06:08]So we know that the markup for the clarity act is gonna happen this week on Thursday, May 14th.

[00:06:15]And the odds of the bill passing this year has risen to 74% on poly markets.

[00:06:20]So the prediction markets are showing some positive numbers here.

[00:06:24]Also, if you caught my interview with Cody Carbone, CEO of the Digital Chamber, he talked about this, but he also talked about this week, we are gonna hear a big announcement for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

[00:06:36]How are they gonna fund it and much more?

[00:06:38]That's gonna come from Patrick Witt.

[00:06:40]And be sure to watch the interview with Cody because we cover a lot here, guys.

[00:06:44]But that could be a huge catalyst.

[00:06:47]Huge, huge catalyst to send Bitcoin to 90K, if it's good news, right?

[00:06:51]I don't know how good the news is gonna be if it's gonna be very bullish or it's gonna be something that's like, oh, okay, we're pooling all the Bitcoin we got from the different agencies.

[00:07:00]It's now in the reserve.

[00:07:02]I think the bullish news would be we found a way to buy Bitcoin.

[00:07:07]We found some revenue sources, but there's no guarantee we get that news.

[00:07:11]So this is where, again, we have to watch the markets closely, continue to pay close attention to the charts, look at the stock market, because if things get overheated, you can expect a pullback.

[00:07:22]And as always, none of this is guaranteed and there could be a black swan event.

[00:07:26]The Iran war situation is still hovering in the background, guys.

[00:07:31]So could things escalate again and the markets start rolling over and if it gets really bad, they crash down, that's possible.

[00:07:39]You can't rule it out.

[00:07:41]Of course, I don't want that to happen.

[00:07:43]I think many of you know, I want my bags to keep going up, right guys?

[00:07:46]So let's see what this week brings us and the following weeks as well.

[00:07:50]And hopefully we get this continued bullish momentum with some good news.

[00:07:56]But I like what I'm seeing here, guys, especially for alts.

[00:07:59]So be ready if you are thinking of taking some profits and some alts, you know, definitely be ready.

[00:08:05]You know, an example, this is not financial advice.

[00:08:08]You know, I'm going to be grabbing some alts here, which haven't taken off like XRP and then swing traded.

[00:08:15]So for example, buying it at this point where it hasn't really blasted off yet.

[00:08:20]And then it goes up, let's say 20%, boom, profit taking, right, that's something I do.

[00:08:26]It's not leverage trading, it's not day trading.

[00:08:28]It's just playing the market swings, buy the dip, sell the rip as they would say.

[00:08:34]So that's how I'm approaching it.

[00:08:35]But again, you might see some angry comments from people about this and that because they're using leverage in your day trading.

[00:08:42]So I'm more of a macro investor.

[00:08:45]So many of you know that.

[00:08:46]I have a macro view on the market.

[00:08:48]I've been saying I don't anticipate new all-time highs till 2027.

[00:08:52]Now I could be wrong.

[00:08:53]Maybe the market surprises everybody and we get new all -time highs is here, right?

[00:08:57]There is a probability for that because I know Trump will not want to go into the midterm elections with the markets and the dumpsters.

[00:09:06]He will love for the stock market and crypto to be hitting new all-time highs with his new fetch here in place and much more.

[00:09:11]Again, you guys know how the game of politics works, right?

[00:09:14]No, I have to make sure I say this because sometimes people don't understand.

[00:09:19]I'm not guaranteeing anything because I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm saying there's a probability of that, right?

[00:09:24]We're making, we're forming our thesis here and seeing which one plays out.

[00:09:28]But if it goes to new all-time highs this year, I will be so happy and we don't have to wait for 2027.

[00:09:36]But in my opinion, the likelihood of new all-time highs this year is low and it's more probable in 2027.

[00:09:44]But like I said, would love to be wrong on that.

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[00:11:16]Okay guys, we've got big news around Canton network.

[00:11:18]Many of you know, I've been highlighting this coin ever since I interviewed the founder of Digital Assets, which is the company behind Canton Network.

[00:11:25]And I invested in the token at the Lowe's.

[00:11:28]It's been doing pretty well.

[00:11:29]I believe it's going to be a big winner because it's backed by some big Wall Street institutions.

[00:11:34]It's a public chain with privacy built in.

[00:11:37]Obviously not financial advice, do your own research, but here's the headline.

[00:11:40]Canton Network creator targets $300 million capital raise.

[00:11:45]So Digital Asset Holdings, the enterprise blockchain company behind the Canton Network, a permission blockchain network for financial institutions with privacy features is reportedly raising fresh capital at a $2 billion valuation.

[00:11:59]The $300 million round is led by venture capital firm, A16Z Crypto.

[00:12:05]So I've often stated watch what big firms and funds like A16Z are doing, watch where they're putting their capital behind because that means a lot of liquidity is going to go there.

[00:12:16]I've said that many times, guys.

[00:12:18]Don't be surprised that this coin goes bananas as we enter into a bull market, but not financial advice, not guaranteed.

[00:12:26]So please do your research.

[00:12:28]I'm diversified.

[00:12:30]I do believe Canton can do well.

[00:12:32]So this deal is expected to close in several weeks, according to Bloomberg.

[00:12:35]The report comes less than a year after Digital Asset announced it had raised $135 million in a strategic fund led by DRW Venture Capital and Trade Web Markets.

[00:12:46]In December, Digital Asset, the Canton Network and Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, the DTCC announced a partnership to enable the tokenization of DTCC custody assets on the Canton Network.

[00:12:59]So the DTCC powerhouse selected Canton Network to build on, right, for tokenized assets.

[00:13:05]So again, guys, not financial advice, but I hope you see what's happening here and the amount of capital that's about to come in.

[00:13:13]Moving ahead, agentic commerce will run on crypto rails.

[00:13:16]PayPal and Google reps tell Consensus Miami.

[00:13:19]So Consensus Miami was, of course, last week.

[00:13:22]You had big, big names there.

[00:13:24]They're all preparing for the agent or AI agent economy, guys, because many of you eventually will have your own AI agent doing things for you, booking flights, travel, scheduling appointments, replying to emails, all kinds of stuff, right?

[00:13:37]And if you have them go out to buy things and do commerce, they're gonna have to have a wallet and what are they gonna use?

[00:13:43]Venmo, PayPal, not necessarily, stablecoins.

[00:13:47]So you may say, well, Tony, you just mentioned PayPal.

[00:13:49]Yes, but PayPal has its own stablecoin, right?

[00:13:52]P-Y-U-S-D.

[00:13:53]So you need instant settlement when you have these agents moving and doing a lot of different things.

[00:13:58]And there's gonna be millions, potentially billions of them eventually as people around the world have their own and even have not just one, but more than one.

[00:14:07]So I hope you see where the puck is heading here and these AI agents will be powered by stablecoins and be using blockchain technology.

[00:14:16]So AI agents are structurally locked out of the traditional banking accounts, leaving crypto rails as the natural payments layer.

[00:14:25]Google has launched the agentic payments protocol, AP2, with 120 partners, including PayPal, and donated it to the FIDO Foundation.

[00:14:34]A PayPal survey found 95% of merchants see AI agent traffic, but only 20% have machine readable catalogs.

[00:14:43]Now, just last week, I reported to you guys, Amazon also created their AI agent wallet.

[00:14:50]So the infrastructure is being set up here, guys.

[00:14:52]This is very, very big.

[00:14:54]And I'm personally exploring, how can I build AI agents to help myself as well as to help you guys and to benefit you guys here as a viewers and listeners of the podcast.

[00:15:04]So stay tuned on that.

[00:15:06]But this is gonna be a huge use case.

[00:15:08]I think it's gonna be a huge narrative as we head into the next bull market.

[00:15:11]And it's not just necessarily a fake narrative, like, oh yeah, this is gonna happen.

[00:15:16]This is a real, like AI agents, guys.

[00:15:20]I've been studying it.

[00:15:21]A lot of them are already out there.

[00:15:23]Yes, there's a lot of trial and error and piloting happening, but eventually it's gonna get to a point that they're gonna go into the real economy and start doing a lot of different things.

[00:15:34]So this is real.

[00:15:36]And I think this is a big use case for crypto.

[00:15:39]So be prepared for this, guys.

[00:15:41]This is really huge.

[00:15:42]And you may wanna look at this from not only a crypto standpoint, but an investment standpoint, whether it be stocks or an entrepreneur standpoint where you build your own type of AI agent technology or whatever it may be, or you go work in this field, right?

[00:15:57]So these are things to think about, but very big tech giant names here are getting involved in buildings.

[00:16:03]So this is really cool.

[00:16:04]All right, guys, that's the news.

[00:16:05]Let me know what you think.

[00:16:06]Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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