FIRST WARNING SIGN FLASHING FOR BITCOIN AND DOGECOIN!? FINAL RALLY BEFORE BEAR MARKET CRASH IN Q4!?

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Good morning to the viewers around the globe. Welcome to another blockchain debriefing.

[00:00:08]And we begin with our liquidation map.

[00:00:11]Now, I do want to point out someone made the case yesterday that I was reading it wrong, which is true. I've been saying there's $2 billion every time we go down. It's actually just the total amount of money that's there. So, I Clearly it says it on the screen, but I was just skipping over it. So, just a brief change. So, clearly if we went down to 77,900, it we would only liquidate 3 billion. We wouldn't liquidate 3 billion every time we move. But, the concept is the same though, right? There's There's $3 billion, which means there's a lot of money here. So, what we've been saying is true. It's just I misunderstood the amount of money. That's all. But, nevertheless, you can see clearly there's a high amount of leverage at 79,200.

[00:00:55]So, moving to that price in the short term is probable, and it'll probably be very swift because of the amount of leverage that's there.

[00:01:03]But, you can see that again there is more money to the downside. It doesn't mean we have to go down there now, but I do think we're in a bear market, and today's video is going to uncover a lot.

[00:01:15]I would argue at some point we'll probably come down here. The question is, do we get these people out first before moving lower? And we'll talk about that right now.

[00:01:26]Because my oh my, the S&P 500 is continuing to just explode. The NASDAQ is continuing to explode.

[00:01:36]And Bitcoin is just It's like a dead goose.

[00:01:41]So, I think we're seeing it I'm not saying we're seeing the signs right now, but we're seeing the early signals like, all right, bears are starting to wake up. They're not at the door yet. First, they have to wake up, then walk to the front door, then knock on the door. Right now, the bears are like they're smelling something. They smell What is that?

[00:02:05]Smells like bull bull jive.

[00:02:09]>> [laughter] >> That's from ESPN. Bull jive.

[00:02:14]Anyway, it's too early to say we're bearish, but I think because of how strong the S&P is, we're seeing the early signs like we might not be as bullish as people think we are.

[00:02:28]Now, that doesn't mean we have to crash right now because the momentum is still max bullish as we've been beating into the ground, but what is important to note is every time or not every time, sorry.

[00:02:42]Just from 1 year ago, we've had this exact environment where it was May, the S&P exploded higher, 5-day stock RSI exploded to overbought, and we exploded to a new all-time high by May 20th.

[00:02:55]Can that happen?

[00:02:58]I'm going to say no, okay? I'm going to flat out and say we're not making a new all-time high in May, all right? But the reality is you can probably compare this all-time high to here in this setting environment because the prices are not that far apart, and the momentum in the environment for the spy is the exact same. So, I have to argue this is the most bullish environment that you're going to get to take this high. Which means if we don't take this high, then we're not replicating this, and the reality is regardless of what has happened, if you want to compare prior market cycles and structures to where we are now, this cannot stay up here forever.

[00:03:40]Which means at some point Bitcoin doing nothing will confirm that we are bearish, and when this comes down, that's going to be when we start to see the next move down.

[00:03:52]However, it doesn't have to come down like this. We could sit here for weeks.

[00:03:56]So, we're going to continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, however long they want to either A push the price up or B hold the price up. There's no rush, but again, every 5 days that passes that we don't see that you're seeing confirmation that it is still a bear market, and I do want to share with you one chart here, which I do think is going to be a big telltale, and it is Bitcoin divided by QQQ.

[00:04:26]We're not seeing anything that resembles a bull market. We're seeing the S&P 500 push higher, and we're seeing Bitcoin stall, which is historically bearish. You can see, I'm not saying that these are the same cuz they're not. One went up, and then this one is clearly trending down.

[00:04:44]But, if you just compare Bitcoin to this, you're just seeing how much Bitcoin is underperforming the stock market, which is traditional when you're in a bear market.

[00:04:56]Okay? So, this is a big indication that we are potentially still in a macro bear market, and the reality is, if you go to the to the weekly time frame, the weekly stock RSI is overbought, and this is still bleeding. So, I'm going to assume here that when the weekly stock RSI finally rolls over, you're probably going to get a big move to the downside.

[00:05:19]That's what's worrisome is we're already moving down, but the stock RSI is still overbought. But, the reason it's moving down is because Bitcoin's not moving, but the S&P and the QQQ are, and that's what makes it a little bit bearish because this is the beautiful environment for a bull run, but we're not getting it. So, I do think heading into the summer, weakness coming into the market will confirm it is still a bear market.

[00:05:46]Again, I do think it is a bear market, but I'm trying to give everyone what they want, and I think it's working pretty good. I think what we're doing is working actually where the moon boys are enjoying the content, but the bears are still accepting the data that we could be bullish in a smaller trend, but overall the macro trend it's a bear market. And that's what I think is happening here. So, I I do think heading into the summer this move like this is the most likely outcome. The question is how high do we go and for how long do we stay here? And I can't give you that definitive answer, but I would argue once June and July pass, maybe we move lower, but I would imagine us not taking this high will result in a very large move down.

[00:06:34]And the same is true for Dogecoin.

[00:06:36]Right? If you put Dogecoin divided by QQQ, it's it's it's pretty worrisome.

[00:06:44]You know, like you could argue, oh, we're right here. Maybe we are, but anything other than this and you're in something like this.

[00:06:53]And the problem is Doge already broke this low, which this may be forecasting what the actual price is going to do.

[00:07:01]Because what happens when the Nasdaq pulls back? Now you have a ultra bearish environment, and that's why this is so worrisome because Doge and Bitcoin are both doing nothing when the S&P is going vertical. So, what happens when the S&P goes down?

[00:07:19]You're probably going to see the reversal, and it's not going to be pretty. So, we'll continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, however long they hold up the price.

[00:07:29]I think the summer time should be that switch where maybe it's before the summer, but historically it is the summer as we highlighted yesterday, where the reversal actually does come in. It's happened pretty much every summer for the last 3 years where you saw some type of top and then reversal to the downside.

[00:07:48]Actually, that has happened for the last 4 years. So, yeah, 2022, 2023, 2024, and then 2025. So, if I had to guess, again, let the bulls hold the price however high they want, but coming into this end of the summer fall, that's probably where we see the move down. But, until then, maybe we rally, maybe we don't, but the momentum is max bullish, and you may be hearing me say that over and over and over, and nothing's happening.

[00:08:21]This is what we were talking about where everyone's getting euphoric, but if nothing happens, then it's not actually bullish, and the if nothing happens is happening. So, I'm going to have to assume that heading into the summertime, the absence of a rally will confirm that we are still bearish, and much lower prices are still on the table.

[00:08:44]But, the question is how long do we sit here for? And until we actually see the reversal, we could sit here for weeks. So, quick video, nothing really new. The momentum is bullish, but the S&P and the Nasdaq are exceptionally bullish, and we're just seeing no follow-through for crypto. I have to imagine this will probably go on for another couple of weeks, and then the reversal should finally come in, but the question is how high do we go, and how long do we stay here for? And unfortunately, I don't know the answer, but what I am telling you is there's a very, very high probability, especially with today, that this is the outcome heading into the end of the year.

[00:09:27]I just don't know how long we're going to sit here for.

[00:09:30]So, quick video, we'll leave it there.

[00:09:32]As always, stay safe. None of this is financial advice.