Dhan Ki Baat | April 2026 | Episode 6 - English

Added: 2026-04-29

[00:00:05]Hi, thank you Sameer for joining us.

[00:00:07]It's been a while since we met and I'm sure our audience has also been very patient.

[00:00:12]>> met for Danki Baat.

[00:00:13]>> Yeah, for Danki Baat. Yes, yes. Sorry, sorry for that. It's been a while since we did our Danki Baat series. So, let me start off with the real exciting one that we came up with the we had a we had a sell call on IT.

[00:00:26]We started doing that in February of 25 and stuck on to that call despite all the choppiness in the market.

[00:00:33]So, basically one just go back to that and share your thoughts on that and secondly, what now in IT? So, >> [laughter] >> since you said since 1 year, we've also been talking about it for 1 year.

[00:00:45]So, you know, when we started this firm, we wanted to borrow or learn from the best and what are their future mutual funds and we said one mutual fund meets investors once a year and therefore is very transparent.

[00:00:58]We do not but we tell our views literally every day. What is the view on the budget? What is the view on STT?

[00:01:05]What is the view on war? Whether there'll be peace?

[00:01:11]Anyway, so we've been yeah, openly negative but the good thing is that you know, every one or two years you need one or two big big trends to catch and then you are okay for that year.

[00:01:24]So, three, four years ago we got this buy at any price thing right that don't buy at any price or less stocks, bad stocks. These old quality stocks with high valuation so that worked for one or two years.

[00:01:37]I had even shorted half of those stocks which I didn't own in our long short fund.

[00:01:43]And now big picture we've got the IT right so it's good. But now from here on what to do? I would think that basically like there are many buy and hold stocks or sorry, buy and forget stocks.

[00:01:55]>> You buy and hold. There can also be a group which is sell and forget.

[00:02:00]Like forget about buy and forget.

[00:02:01]>> [laughter] >> Just for everybody's disclosure, as of today I am short most of these stocks but in the long only obviously if there's a sell which we have sold 1 year ago and we forget, you don't have to look at it every day now. Obviously you have to monitor them then one day the management will come and say we are getting 6% growth instead of 1% growth or 5% growth.

[00:02:22]The stock would have gone up 10% before you even realize and then you can start.

[00:02:28]There is no need to analyze every day if 18 P is good or 17 P is good. Broadly you know from reading >> [clears throat] >> which today I learned that Mr. Rhythm Desai saying don't even read but from reading >> [snorts] >> you don't have to read only books, you can read newspapers also.

[00:02:48]That I mean the uncertainty is too high.

[00:02:53]It is so high that people who are buying now cannot say that they are buying because it is cheap.

[00:03:00]They are gambling.

[00:03:02]But nobody knows so if nobody knows it's like a toss of a coin. You should know a little bit.

[00:03:07]Can't say I think like this and I think like that. It's little bit should be there. In fact, I think that now it is very easy at least in India to know the different styles of fund managers or if somebody bought these stocks in March and has sold them in April I would put them on the top. We didn't do that because we never bought them in March or Feb.

[00:03:30]But people who can switch, turn even little bit but you will find many people who would have not sold a single share or added Or added. is we are basically signaling that that you are too whatever, rigid in your views and rigidity is not a great quality in fund managers.

[00:03:52]But who knows? But anyway, bottom line is as of now for the general public and even for our fund, we would say now that you've sold, forget about it and move on in life.

[00:04:02]So, basically till the time we see don't see growth, we won't be interested.

[00:04:06]>> Or or or it should look blatantly cheap as if it is some debt product. Right.

[00:04:12]Right.

[00:04:13]Value means 6 8 P then.

[00:04:16]Right. Because then we are getting some earnings yield is 5 6% not dividend I mean though they are still debating whether to do buyback or to do this. I mean 2 months ago if you do buyback, who's going to buy your stock? I mean what happens to I mean you must have seen the Bernstein letter also about that IT services sector has contributed so much to the economy and the demand will go off. So, what's your view on that? Nothing to do with Bernstein. That is an old thing everybody asks that if you are negative on IT, does that mean you have to be negative on consumer and real estate, travel, hotels? Because obviously IT sector directly to the jobs which are higher paying jobs than normal jobs and the second round of jobs of people who are supporting these guys, their drivers and their maids and their whatever real estate provider and whatever. So, that is a good question and therefore I know because I'm going to US next week so I had I knew these questions will come and they've been coming forever so I collected this data.

[00:05:24]Because I always had this in the back of my mind but now I have them lit I mean like exact numbers. So, there are 54 lakh IT jobs as per Google Google and all these guys and Claude.

[00:05:37]And 3 years ago there were 45 lakhs.

[00:05:41]So, that is not a bad growth.

[00:05:44]But when you look at the listed companies, the growth rate is much lower. This is the total IT employees.

[00:05:51]And the reason for that is the listed guys are not growing. So, out of this 54 lakh, 35 lakh are in IT companies.

[00:06:00]The rest are in GCCs or global capability centers. So, if you look at mostly I guess they'll all be listed these IT companies.

[00:06:08]35 lakhs. This was 31 lakhs 3 years ago.

[00:06:12]So, that looks very depressing now.

[00:06:14]Okay, 31 has become 35 which is say 9 10% growth over 3 years. Right.

[00:06:21]>> [clears throat] >> Or 10 12%. So, that means some 3 4% growth per annum and that also may have happened in the first 2 years and last year of current year might be zero or whatever. So, that's why people say that IT is not growing. But in the same country which is India, the GCC which is these MNCs opening their own centers in India, the number of employees were 14 lakhs 3 years ago and now they are 19 lakhs.

[00:06:47]So, 5 on 14 some whatever 35.

[00:06:52]That is over 3 years so 11 12% per annum. That's why the combined number doesn't look bad. 45 to 54 is okay. So, the point is that just like we make not we mean us but we as in the market makes mistakes by looking only at listed companies to say what is the market and what is this thing without realizing there are unlisted companies, there are private equity funded companies. Like for example, in air conditioning I remember previously we used to think air conditioning oh, therefore buy one or two of these listed guys.

[00:07:26]But not realizing there are 15 unlisted guys who are putting pressure on the listed guys, the Koreans, the Japanese.

[00:07:32]Open the corn corn the Chinese. So, it's the same here that the GCC guys are growing.

[00:07:40]That means the MNC parent is choosing to do business on their own also.

[00:07:47]Which was not the case before. Maybe they were not comfortable with India or with being able to deal with so many employees. And now they feel we can handle it or maybe they are more senior guys in their own firms.

[00:08:01]Of course now there are the CEOs also Indians but if not, the IT guys are mostly Indian. So, maybe some Indian guy in the firm, they are convinced the firm that let us open a GCC and I will be the head and you can save me dollars and I'm moving to Bangalore.

[00:08:18]Whatever. But now there are nearly 2,000 GCCs.

[00:08:23]So, when we talk about writing off India just because IT listed is not growing not so fast. So, that's why not negative on everything else. Second thing is that we have been all as market participants unhappy that private equity guys are selling and they are raising a lot of money and mostly they are raising dollars and going away. But all these companies when they are going public unleash a number of millionaires and near billionaires also because of ESOPs.

[00:08:56]And those are all technically not technically moral as Indian IT These startups are most tech oriented mostly. Even in a company like Lenskart they say it is tech. AI driven and automatic will carry on whatever. What I mean is even a retail guy presenting.

[00:09:19]So, if these guys get a lot of ESOPs and options and higher salaries, at least the successful ones that each fellow is equal to 10 of the traditional IT employees in terms of money spending ability. So, it's like consumerism and all is not going to come down and if you want to say otherwise then you can see the last two quarters I mean this last quarter's results from IT consumer companies doesn't seem to be that anybody else is affected. It's the listed IT guys. So, Sameer, next question obviously comes from this only. IT guys are more or less large cap guys. And now there is the argument being thrown by various fund managers that large caps look very attractive because they're back to their mean last 10 years, 15 year averages and stuff like that. Uh with this growth rate, do you think that's So in aggregate, if you look at the market, a large cap weightage will be I guess 70%.

[00:10:17]Yeah, roughly around that in the NSE 500, yeah.

[00:10:20]So we would say that you should have large cap, but they should not be 70% of your portfolio. So our flexi cap, I don't know how much it has, but must be similar to what I have here, broadly speaking some 55 to 60%. Right. And in which IT is not there. Of course, we have another a large cap which has been a disaster for us in the last three, four years. And if we did not have that, we would have been even happier. But that had nothing to do with IT.

[00:10:47]>> [laughter] >> And we are so >> [clears throat] >> sad that we can give the name also. It's called HDFC.

[00:10:53]>> [laughter] >> But anyway, so the bottom line is that large caps are good, but large caps alone don't give the zing that you need because their growth rates are quite low.

[00:11:04]And because of IT's ones, because of even consumer sector growth rate is low or if even if growth rate is okay, the valuations are 60 multiple and any time the market corrects, people remind that oh, these stocks have very high valuations. So no need to overdo that also. And then these banks and all are doing nothing much. And then you have this oil and gas which is affected either if oil goes up, then one group is affected like the refineries. If oil goes down, then the other group is affected.

[00:11:35]So large caps are okay, but market overall is better than large caps, which means mid and small are better than large. So what about cash? And we should be one we keeping cash in these my god whatever in your portfolios as such. Ever we have tried everything.

[00:11:53]I have even tried commodities. I've tried infrastructure stocks.

[00:11:58]I have tried IT of course for 20 years.

[00:12:01]Everything is tried, but you have to learn. And the learning is that it is not easy to get the cash call right.

[00:12:10]I've done it once I did after demonetization, then we did it a little bit uh in 22 with the Ukraine war, but more than that because of the very high interest rates in US.

[00:12:25]Which we thought will be very negative for US, which it was, but it didn't matter to the Indian market at that time. In 22, Indian market didn't fall.

[00:12:34]And in 16 end, the market fell for a few days.

[00:12:39]And then it suddenly went up because of flows into the funds because of demonetization for the same reason.

[00:12:48]Another thing is if you read or think that if you have to credibly go to somebody and say that I will have 20, 30% cash.

[00:12:57]So first of all, before that, if you go to raise money to from an investor, the investor will say what is your track record? So you will say I have these 20 stocks. I have this, that, and this is my history, and this is my performance for the last X number of years. If you don't have any track record, you can still raise money by saying, you know, we have a big team. We have people from different sectors who have come from industry or they are doing this and that.

[00:13:23]If somebody asks you, you have 20% cash, what team do you have for this and how did you analyze? You say I thought of it. One fellow will say, I just it felt in my bones.

[00:13:34]Okay, you can give some PC argument makes no sense. They'll say, "Okay, show us your track record for the cash."

[00:13:40]So the guy will say in 2009 end or eight end or seven end, I raised cash. So one time.

[00:13:48]Maximum somebody has raised cash is maybe three times.

[00:13:52]So that means once or twice, there was an opportunity.

[00:13:56]Both the times I got it right. It could have been It looks like a tukka to me also.

[00:14:02]Because it's like a fund somebody going and saying I got two I got two stocks in my life, both turned out to go up well, so therefore I'm now a fund manager. No, no, no. It could have been a fluke. It could have been one half probability of being right, half wrong, let's say. So two times over, 0.5 into 0.5 is you have to say I did it 60 times and 100 times in stocks and in for 10 years and every day this happened, that happened over this way there is not enough evidence to show that know that anybody And I've been saying again and again, Mr. Buffett has not only lost maybe more than 150, 200 billion dollars by this cash. More importantly, he has left his successor in a very uncomfortable situation. Since he was a great allocator, he should have invested all this money and then given to the new guy. Now I've said to you you have 300 billion.

[00:14:56]You give it to a new guy. Now new guy is under scrutiny every morning and evening. And you're supposed to make a 100, 200 billion dollar investment according to them. I say they should make 10 investments of 30 billion dollars. If they can finish it in 20 minutes.

[00:15:11]But they for some reason want to make it 100 >> [clears throat] >> billion. What name will they go to receive the under scrutiny? How do you do the AGM? How do you answer questions?

[00:15:21]Press okay. Will 40,000 people turn up in Omaha? You're under stress for 100 things. Because suddenly imagine if instead of 50,000 people coming to Omaha this year, there are 3,000. Because people say who's interested in listening to a new guy? Who's going to buy with 300 billion to invest and he might have invested with him. So I'm saying these things are beyond the normal. I would say you can try, but it doesn't work. And one good example of that as we say is recent April. In April month, maybe it's around 15% over everything.

[00:15:54]So if you are making 5, 6% on cash because cash is not cash as everybody might, it is some dead fund.

[00:16:01]It's two years of return gone in a month.

[00:16:04]Right.

[00:16:05]True.

[00:16:06]Very true.

[00:16:07]But something that leads me to the another option uh basically in the investment field. We get a lot of pressure from our distributors saying why don't you start a global fund? And I keep telling them to look, it doesn't make sense because we stopped our global fund which we had. Yeah, but [laughter] no, no, we didn't stop it in the distribution.

[00:16:24]inflows into it. So we have this global fund from 2017. When did you invest?

[00:16:30]Same first month or later? Uh couple of months later. Couple of months in the first few months only. Yeah, first few months.

[00:16:37]So now this fund is on 190 million, so it's not bad compared to the Indian international funds. But last year I realized and this was doing well till middle of last year.

[00:16:46]Then we realized that, you know, the formula so far was very easy.

[00:16:50]That your our benchmark is MSCI world.

[00:16:54]And to beat MSCI world, you buy mostly US stocks.

[00:16:59]And then within US stocks, you buy mostly tech stocks.

[00:17:02]Within tech stocks, you buy four Nasdaq stocks or seven, eight Nasdaq stocks.

[00:17:07]These I mean Nasdaq means the mega mac mega cap or mag seven or whatever. And they would outperform. So mag seven was outperforming US tech, US tech was outperforming US overall S&P, and S&P was anyway outperforming the world. So I mean I mean Google Amazon Microsoft Meta Netflix Tesla in between in between by chance Nvidia we are the heroes of the world. And last year everything changed.

[00:17:36]After April when Trump reversed his tariff suddenly there was a big bull run.

[00:17:44]But that bull run people think happened in US, it actually happened in rest of the world.

[00:17:48]Because of currency plus anyway the other markets. So last year suddenly you saw Korea going up, Taiwan is going up, Brazil is going up, even Europe was going up particularly when measured in US dollar. Right. Right. And we are all mentally prepared to buy 20 IT stocks in US and little bit here and there. Kaise chalega? How will we suddenly in a small team? So same thing true for every Indian fund manager unless you have 20 global I mean analysts who are in the international, somebody who knows Japanese, somebody who knows Chinese, and somebody who goes there and sits there and has an office there. Kaise chalega? So we are not interested. Ye log sochte hain ki har aadmi a fund manager wants AUM. We don't want AUM. We want NAV.

[00:18:32]Because [clears throat] the ego comes from NAV. So we shut shut the fund means we said now it's a bit complicated, we can't do it in the old way. So right now no new money. And the old money is okay because they have enjoyed the returns.

[00:18:46]So they say, "Okay, do what you want."

[00:18:48]So we are ourselves buying ETFs.

[00:18:50]So you can tell your distributor we ourselves are buying ETF in our fund. In our global fund. So you buy tell them to buy MSCI world ETF, MSCI world ex-US ETF.

[00:19:02]Or if you want to participate in the Korean semiconductor fund. I actually bought double fund little bit only 1% of the fund. Korean defense. So Korean fund defense KDEF. [laughter] The symbol is KDEF. Apart from that there are other things, but directly buying stocks in a world is an impossible task. India may we can say we have 10 analysts. They have been doing this job. We are in one country.

[00:19:30]We follow every day, every day. Wahan pe we are sitting in Mumbai or Singapore, I can just randomly buy. So cannot be done.

[00:19:39]Thank you very much. Please give us for our Indian fund.

[00:19:42]>> [laughter] >> Okay. So that brings me to the other questions that Otherwise, world is good.

[00:19:48]World you should invest.

[00:19:50]Some 20, 25% you want to add, add. But it be Yeah, why Why not? It's very good.

[00:19:57]So that is the next question on the FBI bit. Foreign portfolio investors selling going on continues. What do you think?

[00:20:05]Will they ever come back to India? If they do, will it be a deluge or trickle?

[00:20:10]What do you want?

[00:20:13]So right now the thing is that they've been selling.

[00:20:16]And there have been a few this thing attempts to stop selling and then we have had bad luck. So I'll show you some data but just a big picture. In 25 is the only real odd year out for us in terms of flows. Let me show you then only I can explain like one second. Let me see.

[00:20:37]So this is data from Goldman Sachs report. And this is showing FII flows year on year since 22.

[00:20:44]We can get old data from an older report but yeah. So if you see in 22 India So the the feeling is that for the last many years Indians are not getting FII which is absolutely true. And you can easily get much more than this if you do a few things like tax category I mean hata which is India's or not even one other country charges tax to foreign investors. But anyway, leave that.

[00:21:09]So India had 17 billion of outflow in 22. But the whole Asia had also 60.

[00:21:14]Okay, so you can say India in a proportion should have had I don't know. Let's say 15. But not plus minus much different. I don't know the exact number. I don't know the weights exact.

[00:21:25]But look at 23. So India got 21 out of 30. So in 22 what happened for 60 billion outflow in general was the Ukraine war and very high interest rates in US increased. Increased but delta was very high from some 0.5% to 5% by end of the year. So obviously thumb rule you know emerging markets get sold and blah blah blah. So they had the foreigners to got 16 billion.

[00:21:51]And 17 India. So it's not India being high isolated.

[00:21:57]Now some next year they whatever they said okay. So we got 21 out of 31.

[00:22:02]Disproportionate. Absolutely disproportionate because Korea, Taiwan are big.

[00:22:06]Now you see 24. I Who knows what the reason was but as far as we are concerned India had 1 billion of outflow out of 23. So all these years perfectly good.

[00:22:18]25 India has been isolated. 19 out of 40 but 50% level.

[00:22:23]Right.

[00:22:24]But please note even Korea and Taiwan have had outflows. People think that because the Korean market is up some 100 200%.

[00:22:30]They still had outflows. The reason for that is maybe they had had outflows in the end of the year when the market went up so much.

[00:22:37]But in that market please note there are two companies Samsung Electronics and SK If you remove If with those companies on the whole market earning growth this year is supposed to be 130%.

[00:22:50]Right.

[00:22:51]And if you remove these two companies earning growth is supposed to be 12%.

[00:22:55]Okay or something like Because these two companies are having earning growth of 500% or something 600% or something.

[00:23:04]>> [snorts] >> So more confusion but anyway. So we had 25 India had outflows.

[00:23:10]Now if we say what is our reason for having outflow? Who knows?

[00:23:15]But the reason can be number one separate reason.

[00:23:19]One is everybody is having outflow anyway. Then India had a war with Pakistan in May.

[00:23:24]And May May 20 recovery with the world May after the tariff thing. Right.

[00:23:34]Immediately when people could have been a little bit looking back I mean looking to put back India at the war.

[00:23:42]And then later on was absolutely unfair that India got isolated with a 50% tariff.

[00:23:48]So obviously then somebody will get confused. The top down guys will get confused. Quick currency will weaken.

[00:23:54]Many things will happen. And so we got hit with the tariff war.

[00:24:00]So you can say we lost disproportionately but not totally out of line. 19 out of 40. You know 19 out of 19 neither yeah yeah neither we lost 19 and the rest of the world gained 19. Right. Right.

[00:24:16]This year it all started a little better in Feb particularly after the trade deal. So February month we again had positive flows but not much but 2 billion 1 billion but something positive.

[00:24:29]And that we were very bullish then key this trade deal has been is out of the way and then came the war.

[00:24:37]This new war.

[00:24:39]So March again So this data is till April 3rd or 4th.

[00:24:44]So maybe in April now they Koreans may have got some money but as of here if you see India has lost out of 72 which will be lower than its weight in the index. Right.

[00:24:55]So if I mean by the way I'm going to US next week this weekend.

[00:25:00]You're hoping to get money only now. We are not hoping to I know we do give them money. Yeah. So we are at it.

[00:25:08]Okay. Yeah every day.

[00:25:10]Now the other one you can see is This is showing So people say that 40 billion we have lost since peak September 24 and all.

[00:25:21]But you have to relate it to the market cap of the country also now. So if you see in 2014 this is this one Jan to Mar Sorry 2008. So Jan to Mar in 14 whatever months ka chala. So Jan 8 to Mar 9. So 14 billion was a big number in those days but it was 0.7% of the market. I mean it was I mean in today's context a small number. Right.

[00:25:45]And now 45 billion Somebody is right.

[00:25:48]Okay. 45 billion is 0.8%. Right. I mean we have grown in size. Right. Right.

[00:25:55]Right. Right. 14 was yeah. Okay. Now it's 45.

[00:25:59]Previously we only had 14 billion of outflows. How can we have 45 billion? Ho ho ho.

[00:26:04]Proportion wise it's still the same.

[00:26:06]It's like your specs.

[00:26:08]Five years ago [laughter] you would have bought bloody plastic specs from the roadside.

[00:26:13]>> [laughter] >> So it is in the same range of 0.5 0.7% but if you see it's differently out of whatever money they have they have sold 0.8% of their this thing.

[00:26:41]I still say it.

[00:26:43]Because the system should still react even to this.

[00:26:48]That reduce taxes, do whatever. But I'm saying generally it's not. It can be.

[00:26:54]It fits some framework. It's not wild. So that now basically on the other question that we keep getting is oil, the elevated prices of oil and how will it result in demand destruction? How will it uh So So oil is a negative. Oil is a negative because we have to we still don't know how long this will continue.

[00:27:17]But if you see every month how much we lose. So we are importing 5 million barrels a day. Okay, India. So 25 dollars 65 to 90 let's say right.

[00:27:29]So 25 dollars yeah. All right. So 25 into five 125 million a day. Right.

[00:27:35]So one month 4 billion. Right. So one month 4 billion.

[00:27:41]>> [clears throat] >> So if you say this will last three four months. If you say last one year that's a lot 50 billion. Right. That'll be a Say last three four months. So it's 12 billion to It's okay. We have 700 odd billion. How much 12 billion come over? How did you get this 700 billion? Because you had gold which went up but I mean 40% last year. So Let's say you had I don't know the numbers at all but I'm just saying say you had 60 billion of gold. So last year you made 24 billion from gold.

[00:28:09]>> [clears throat] >> It's not what I have over here.

[00:28:14]Right.

[00:28:15]Like I've been saying RBI should also have this you know like our banks do. When they sell something they get some old recovery they put it aside and put it in a new uh provision.

[00:28:28]So you made obscene amount of money from gold. That money should be kept aside for days like this key we have this extra 24 billion which we never thought we will make. Right. Right. Right.

[00:28:39]Right. Now we are giving 12 billion back. What is the big deal? It's just a matter of So I'm saying even in absolute forget about that. 700 billion became 688 for this reason alone.

[00:28:51]The other reason people say is that for this this is to a complete that the private equity guys are selling a lot. They are selling but I mean 30 40 billion a year. How will we handle? We don't have to handle. They can only exit if my stock market is strong. If Sorry if If the stock market is strong Yeah.

[00:29:11]Yeah. Yeah. You can't keep taking out 30 40 billion if the market is not strong.

[00:29:16]So if the market is strong for whatever reason you will be allowed to take out your private equity money otherwise you are not getting out.

[00:29:24]Independently now.

[00:29:25]Right. It's not dependent that they are selling. It will not be done. Okay, what? So I'll accept that but oil is I mean otherwise in absolute it is a negative and I think the biggest negative is the way we deal with the Indian currency. It is just a bit Now it has become a bit embarrassing.

[00:29:45]A natural depreciation is not enough.

[00:29:47]Why we have to effectively uh it's too much. That is a bit of a chicken and egg. If you keep letting it then people will keep selling because the whole world is looking at currency as the benchmark.

[00:30:01]It's gone now. It is beyond my pay scale give it a kick out there but otherwise for Indian guys it's okay whatever it is.

[00:30:09]Extra we fees if you want to view on the that's what he used to tell us.

[00:30:15]You will have to read a few books on that subject.

[00:30:19]So let me my final question obviously the viewers will really curse me if I don't ask you this final question about the market view.

[00:30:28]Everybody wants that from you. The market view is that if you look at Google Play in English it means plus minus. You still end up making okay money to good money.

[00:30:41]So let us say everybody agrees that last one and a half years have been this very depressing. So from September 24 we just learned yesterday that Helios is up only some Helios Flexi Cap is up some 1% which I twisted somebody's analysis and the average guys were down some 78% but basically no return 1% from September 24 to now. But if you look at the four fund differently that we have or whatever we have and we launched them at different times within the last two three years so what is the return? So Flexi Cap was launched in November 23.

[00:31:17]Now whatever may happen in between we didn't know the timing of Google again it's a 50% plus minus. Yeah.

[00:31:24]Then we launched the large and mid cap fund in October 24.

[00:31:30]So that means how many months?

[00:31:32]Say 18 months. One year yeah almost 18 15 16 months right margin.

[00:31:38]So in 16 months is up some 10 11%. No great deal but 5 6% it don't matter which is what you would have got from putting in a bank. So if your hurdle is not Korean stock market then and it is Indian alternative then in a bad phase which is considered a bad market which had two wars Indian war and now Middle East war which had oil crisis which had whatever else tariff where we started with high valuation if you think to all that you made same as bank. Then the third fund we did was the mid cap fund.

[00:32:15]In this period don't say which day in this period in one year and a few days it's up 25%. Right. Right.

[00:32:24]First fund is up 50% in two and a half years. Second fund is giving bank type return.

[00:32:30]And fourth fund is down 3 4% which is the but it is not key oh ho ho India is all the investors are bleeding to death and therefore they get SIPs will stop so going forward if we think that the earnings growth will be 12 type percent for now. Earlier I was thinking and we were all thinking 15 but now a quarter to you have to take away but that is in aggregate >> [clears throat] >> because mostly what will happen is that these big shift in earnings will happen in some big big companies like oil and gas company or some paint company or somebody who will have this that but normal fellow will not have 25% less earnings.

[00:33:17]But aggregate we got to some of these guys have big swings in earnings. Mostly commodity oil and gas plus two months auto foreign auto auto auto so each company individually is not going to lose 5% of earnings maybe 3 5% here or there.

[00:33:39]So therefore all in all you will say 12%.

[00:33:42]Right. For now provided in the next two months and without increasing a lot first this war ends.

[00:33:51]Right.

[00:33:53]So the longer it draws draws along the longer the pain is.

[00:33:57]You know there will be remittance issues Middle East salary employees will get salary cut and all that. Then there that's be there but that I can't imagine that is going on and on and on long. So we are working with that this quarter cash other cash paying you know this if you see all these guys because we are the too simple. So some people will say I have this model which says that today is not a good day to buy large cap.

[00:34:28]They say mid cap. I'm deliberately saying large caps or they will say we don't have this we have this model which says don't buy equities.

[00:34:35]They don't say don't buy equities and keep the cash.

[00:34:40]They will say don't buy equities but by the way we have a multi asset fund in case you want to buy.

[00:34:45]Not in case you want to buy please buy that.

[00:34:48]Or no no I have a gold fund where are you going?

[00:34:53]People think these guys are giving very proper advice. Don't give us that.

[00:34:59]You take B not A.

[00:35:04]It's very [clears throat] independent that is okay. The independent would be you should say there is nothing we have to sell to you.

[00:35:11]You keep the money in a bank deposit and keep keep in touch and we will let you know. All the other model we don't like the market but give us the money anyway and we will sit on cash.

[00:35:23]So where is my cash is it okay give me less money and we will invest and we will see.

[00:35:30]The bottom line is it's okay market and you don't have too many alternatives for about invest broadly and but it is not in the end it will come back to annualized earnings related gains which will be 12 13% but that is what nominal India will still grow at 6 7% GDP 5% inflation and it will do it it has done it all its life it's not going to suddenly stop it. And as I said even now if you look at it over last one year two years not that people are all if you take very particular points in September 24 23rd September but that's not how people invest they didn't all invest one day on that day.

[00:36:16]Thank you Sameer. Thank you again fun to record this one with you as always and I hope the viewers also find it as interesting as we found in March our AMC invested how many crores?

[00:36:32]Oh yeah so the insiders I mean as in voluntarily AMC also invested something like 5 plus crores in March March itself.

[00:36:43]Of course we are >> [laughter] >> yes we didn't I don't think you got it.

[00:36:51]You didn't buy it I don't think so. Not at the bottom so you got it on the way down I think so that way.

[00:36:59]Thank you. Thank you. All the best.

[00:37:02]Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully.

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