تحليل لتحركات العقود الآجلة للمؤشرات الأميركية - تحديثات الأسواق

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Looking at the performance of the US markets and futures contracts, US stock indices are recording gains in pre-market trading, heading towards recording gains for the fifth session and also strengthening their record levels. The Dow Jones is also recording gains, and the P500 shares are rising, supported by optimism regarding artificial intelligence and, of course, the decline in oil prices. We note that Tesla shares strengthened their gains in pre-market trading, recording gains of up to 2.3% and 3%. These gains came after a report about Elon Musk studying a merger of the electric car company with SpaceX.

[00:00:44]In an interview with Bloomberg, Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said that optimism has returned to the stock market, supported by the high valuations expected for the major technology company and expectations of an end to the war soon. He added that the continuation of the war and the rise in US debt will make it difficult to reduce interest rates and shrink the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

[00:01:19]People have valuations that will fuel the market and have an impact on other stocks. Secondly, I think people are thinking the war will eventually be over and while we don't know when it's over they think it's in sight and therefore I think thatl fuel the equity markets and it's fueling it right now.

[00:01:36]The bond markets I think have been hurt in part because people recognize we still have a lot of debt in the United States staggering amount of federal debt and that there's no real easy way to get around that debt in the near term.

[00:01:48]Secondly, I think people believe that it will be very difficult for the Federal Reserve under its new leader who's chairman is a very talented person very difficult to lower interest rates in the near term. The president said at the squaring end that he wanted independent Fed and I think that was a signal that he recognizes that lowering interest rates in the near term is probably not likely. Uh I think the Fed uh has a friend in the White House in the sense that uh Kevin Wor is close to the president obviously closer than JP and I think that president is going to uh make it a little bit easier for him than for JP in my view. Uh then Kevin Warsh is a very smart person he recognizes that the numbers if they come in as high as people expect will be very difficult to lower interest rates. The Fed the Fed futures market is anticipating two rate cuts in the not too distant future rate increases not in the not too distant future. So probably 25 basis points each time and that's what the markets are assuming. Everyone wants fed independence. So I think the president said he wanted it but I think recognizing uh that the war situation is unusual and that uh Kevin Warsh needs a little time to get his feet on the ground before he can begin to do what he wants to do which is lower interest rates. He also wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet and that will take some time to do as well. There are some members of the Fed board now who are saying that they don't think we should lower it. I think one of the board members the other day said they didn't think it could be decreasing right now the balance sheet but we'll see what happens at the end.

[00:03:12]I think things will make sense.

[00:03:26]The S&P 500 is targeting 8,000 points by year-end, supported by earnings growth linked to the AI ​​boom. The bank abandoned its previous forecast of 7,600 points, predicting a 17% return for the index this year after strong corporate results in the first quarter. The bank's strategists also raised their earnings per share forecast to $340 this year, a 24% year-over-year increase, and indicated that investments in AI infrastructure will account for about half of the index's earnings growth this year.

[00:04:04]Micron Technology's market capitalization surpassed the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, supported by a surge in demand for AI chips or memory used in AI applications. The company's stock rose by about 19% yesterday, recording its biggest daily gain since 2011, after the stock more than tripled this year. UBS Group also raised its target price for the chipmaker Micron Technology to a new high. At $1625, with expectations of a doubling of its market capitalization within 12 months to approach $1.8 trillion, this would make Micron's market value greater than companies like MetaPlatforms, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway.

[00:05:01]Joining us from Beirut is Joe Yarak, Head of Markets at Sidra Markets. Welcome, Joe.

[00:05:10]Breaking news from a short while ago: What was the truce or draft agreement that Tehran received, which speaks of perhaps reopening the Strait of Hormuz? If this draft agreement is reached, or if it collapses, what are the expected scenarios for the US indices, which are currently at record levels?

[00:05:38]First of all, Happy New Year!

[00:05:40]We're watching what's happening in the markets. After bottoming out in March, we've seen significant rises. We're seeing the S&P 500 up 10%, the Nasdaq up 20% from the beginning of the year. US corporate earnings have been excellent, exceeding the earnings season, with profits projected at 22%.

[00:06:02]Currently, the markets are pricing in a positive scenario, and the market trend is that sooner or later we will reach an agreement. After witnessing this tug-of-war and the period of truce, the trend is towards a truce, and most likely, we will move towards peace. There are several reasons supporting this scenario. I believe the markets have a high appetite for risk, and artificial intelligence is contributing to this. I think there will be significant additions, and we have seen how investment banks are raising their S&P targets again. I believe that if we want to see the worst-case scenario, I doubt we will, because the trend, from the leaders of the Gulf states to President Trump and Iranian officials, is towards peace. I think the next stage, at present, is about strengthening the conditions and putting additional pressure on Iran. But I see the scenario as positive for the markets, moving towards an agreement.

[00:07:05]So, if the geopolitical tensions do indeed subside and there is an agreement, what do you think? Will we witness a strong return to high- risk assets such as technology and cryptocurrencies, or will investors remain cautious, perhaps waiting for clarity on the path of US interest rates? We've been seeing a very high appetite for risk since April, and now in May, we're seeing significant increases. For example, in the artificial intelligence sector, three AI-related companies joined the trillion-dollar club in just a few days. So, the large investments and the increased appetite for risk are very high. I believe that now, with the war calming down, we'll return to market fundamentals and see what negative impact the energy shock had, because it's likely that the energy shock will have long-term effects. Kevin Warsh and his team had several points on their agenda, from reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to lowering interest rates. The Fed's interest rate cuts will be fundamental, and the markets have priced in that there won't be any reductions, but this is providing support for the sector. The US stock market is experiencing significant spending on artificial intelligence, which will likely lead to higher inflation in the short term. Secondly, there's the issue of large government spending, and I'm seeing US debt approaching $40 trillion. Now, I'd like to ask you about the dollar, which may still be holding steady despite the rise in stocks. In your opinion, does this indicate that the markets are still retaining some fearful sentiment despite the current wave of risk? The main reason is that this fear we were experiencing, I believe, is that any truce will lead to some corrections and declines in the US economy.

[00:09:06]Unfortunately, the additional factor, after what we were seeing in terms of the war's impact, is the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve. The trend is that monetary policies haven't been priced in, and we've even seen several members of the Federal Reserve say the second step won't be any interest rate cuts, but rather interest rate hikes. This is what's pushing the US economy upward, and the trend is that we'll see interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027. These are the ones putting pressure. I just think that with the growth of the US economy and the market, we'll see a return in the second half of the year after the corrections and a weakening of the US economy. So, if the current upward trend continues, in your opinion, which sector is most vulnerable to strong profit-taking: technology, the oil sector, or gold?

[00:09:56]Which sectors? I think if we see some increases, we'll see some corrections in the artificial intelligence sector.

[00:10:02]The danger in artificial intelligence is that we're seeing many large increases; companies are rising by 100%. The 200% and massive investments are a major concern. We might see some slowdowns or defaults in private credit, and this will put pressure on the AI ​​sector.

[00:10:20]I believe any correction or decline we see, like yesterday's 10% levels, will be a healthy correction and a long-term buying opportunity. One last question: I want to focus on Europe. We've noticed rises in all European indices, even though Europe isn't a major player in AI. Is the global technological sector boom the main driver of European markets in this race, of which Europe isn't a part?

[00:10:53]Europe is outside the AI ​​race. The main support for the rises in European stocks is the significant intervention by governments, specifically aid from European governments. I'm seeing support, and we saw it last year with the German government. Currently, governments are providing support packages for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the clean energy sector.

[00:11:19]European aid and support for European economies and companies are providing support, and we're seeing that even with the stock market at 6 levels before The war is causing delays, and we're seeing significant price increases in all markets related to the industrial sector.

[00:11:37]From Beirut, Juwairaq, Head of Markets at Sidra Market, thank you very much.