In NBA game sevens, the proliferation of three-point shots has increased statistical variance, reducing home court advantage since 2017 (home teams under .500), and star players must carry their teams regardless of efficiency, as demonstrated by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's need to perform in a game seven despite poor shooting percentages.
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free throw attempts, OKC wins the game.
But they called it last night straight up, chances are Spurs are going to win the game because he had three free throw attempts last game.
>> And And let me see, Cindy, can we put up page 24 as Vinnie jumps in here? SGA now four straight games in which he has shot no better than 40%. It's the first time that has happened with him. First four game streak of that sort since the '21-'22 season. That includes the regular season. He never goes four straight games not shooting. So, San Antonio has found something defensively.
>> They have the bodies that can they can put in front of him with length, and he's seeing the length. He's only shooting 38% from field this series. He's an efficient ball player. And I think the one game where he had a Shay game was game two, a must-win at home down 1-0. I don't worry about efficiency in a game seven. Game sevens are rock fights.
Like, very rarely do you get the Charles Barkley 40-20 game that he gave Phoenix in 1993. He has to drag this team. That team last night, I don't know about you guys, I don't know about Wendy, that team didn't look like they wanted to be there. Like, you can say cool, calm, and collected, they looked lethargic last night. And they're not being pushed to a point by a team that was built to beat them. And then when that case happens, your best player has to live up to his MVP billing. You don't have to be a efficient, but you've got to drag out a even if it's a eight of 24 Kobe Bryant like performance from the finals where everybody's tired, but you win the game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has to win the game Saturday night. Wendy.
>> He's in hell.
He's in absolute hell. This is Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama hell. He's got one guy up in his jersey, one guy behind him. When Castle tires or they get him off of him, they've got other tremendously strong wings to to to put on him. He does not have his supporting his normal supporting cast. I don't know what the Thunder are going to do about Jaylen Williams. They brought him back last night off the hamstring injury.
They brought him off the bench, he looked terrible. He played 10 minutes, he took one shot, he was minus 18. He was dragging that leg. He was only jumping off his right leg. I don't know what you're going to do about that.
He's in hell.
>> [cough] >> One thing I will say, I don't know for sure, and nobody will know for sure until tomorrow, but this looks like the NBA has lined it up for Scott Foster to be the lead official.
Foster was in the rotation. He wasn't the lead official last night. I expect we're going to see Scott Foster as lead official tomorrow night.
I could be wrong, but I suspect it.
Foster is a guy who we know takes control of games. I wish that officiating wasn't going to be the centerpiece here, and this is not just about whether Shay gets calls or not.
It's it's a lot more nuanced than that.
But when Shay can get to the line a little bit, it's a bit of a weapon. He didn't have that weapon last night. That could How the game is officiated could play a major role tomorrow.
>> Game five, he had 32 points. He had 17 free throw attempts. So, you look at the data, and you're like, "Oh, 32 points."
So, you look at how many times he went to the free throw line, that's what offsets the poor free throw shooting number uh poor shooting numbers in the field. So, once again, like if Scott Foster allows them to play, this has a chance where the Spurs could be in the world championship. If they're calling touch fouls, tick-tack fouls, >> So, Joe Fortenbaugh will give us some gambling perspective, but just your take over on what we're seeing now heading to a game seven.
>> [clears throat] >> And so few free throw attempts >> Now, I wonder if it ping-pongs back.
Keep it in mind.
>> So, again, tend to not be artistic masterpieces.
No, it's just everyone trying to survive. And by the way, home court, can I see 826, Cindy? Home court advantage since 2017, home teams are under 500 in game sevens.
This does not include the bubble cuz obviously there were no real home teams.
So, look at those numbers. And I don't know if this might just be a fluke or if it might be the way the league is changing. Well, before 2017, home teams were 101 and 25. Since that time, they're under.500. What was going on between 2015 and 2017? The proliferation of the three-point shot. There's no greater variance in the game than a three-point shot. Whereas the games used to be decided by free throws in game sevens, fouls. If you get hot, or if you get really cold, that can negate whatever home court. You'd rather be on your home court in a game seven, but it's so much more stressful.
Oklahoma City is going to be stressed.
Remember game seven against Denver last year? Michael Porter Jr. was hurt. Aaron Gordon was hurt. They survived. Game seven in the finals last year. Tyrese Haliburton was going going on a heater, and then he tore his Achilles. We don't know how they're going to play in a game seven. We're all stressed.
This is how game sevens will be.
First thing to consider is you don't have a whole lot of time to fix your people.
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