Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]We are going to get those CPI numbers and Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. Rick, >> yes, our April consumer price index hitting the wires. Up 610 is the headline number. That's exactly what we were expecting. It follows up 9/10 up to this point. Still unrevised. That up 9/10 was the warmest inflation on a month- over-month headline basis since June of 22. Now the 610 backtracks it a bit. brings us to Feb when it was up 3/10. If we strip out the allimportant food and energy, a little warmer than expected, up 4/10, double the rearview mirror, and that would equal where we were in Janet 25. To find a hotter number, you're going to April of 23.

[00:00:46]Now, if we look at a year-over-year perspective, 3.8% a little warmer than expected, half a percent hotter than the 3.3 in the rearview mirror. 3.8 8 would be the warmest since May of 23 when it was 4%.

[00:01:01]Now let's take a year-over-year core up 2.8 once again a little hotter than expected 2/10 warmer in the rearview mirror. 2.8 will be the warmest since uh September of 25 when it was 3.0 which is where we were comping to last month when we got had the 2.6. Finally, and I always like to bring up the 100redyear plus index that we calculate CPI from.

[00:01:28]And once again, 333.02, guess what? Another new all-time high.

[00:01:34]We pretty much make them every month.

[00:01:36]So, anyone who looks at the affordability issue, it's the compounding nature. And that really started in 2020. And if we look at core CPI, the actual index from the 50s, 335 and change once again, a new all-time all-time high. We see interest rates are moving up, hovering at 444 and a 10. The reason that's important, Becky, is that basically equals the high yield close of the year. We start to close above that level, all of a sudden you're looking at July of last year. And we want to pay particularly close attention to these levels because the longer the conflict goes on and all the questions as to how much of the inflation pressures in energy actually stay within the economy.

[00:02:22]Well, that's an open question, but the answer gets a little more pessimistic in the marketplace. So, these are lofty uh yields and they're going to potentially hit an air pocket if we start to trade much higher. And I want to point out we'll have a litmus test for the tenure today with 42 billion of them being auctioned at 1 Eastern. Back to you.

[00:02:44]>> All right, Rick. Thank you. I I think the number that we want to pay a lot of attention to is the core CPI year-over-year. You said that was what 2.8% versus the 2.7%. We spoke with Muhammad Alan yesterday. He said that was the number to really watch if those higher energy costs are costs are working their way into the economy and sticking there. What what do you think of that reading? How how do you re read it?

[00:03:11]>> Well, I look at it in two ways. I agree with Mohamad. It is something to pay attention to. It's definitely on the warm side. It's well above the 2% Fed target. But another way to look at it, considering all the open-ended issues that we left even before the conflict started with that last mile of sticky inflation, I am somewhat impressed that it's actually not a bit higher.

[00:03:34]>> Okay. Uh >> yeah, because wages are still hard to go up. That that's what everyone's talking about. Companies are Yeah. We don't have a wage price spiral maybe, Rick. But 28 is definitely >> 40% higher than two, isn't it?

[00:03:50]Yeah. No, there's no way around it. And obviously they remain sticky. They continue to crawl up a bit and uh I continue to point to the indices, Joe, because we we could massage these numbers any way you want, but ultimately what they're benchmarked against and how we look at it month over month. It just keeps climbing. It's a matter of how much. Uh until we get negative signs, the average person out there is not going to feel any more comfortable with some of the inflation they pay, whether it's from the grocery stores or all the way to bigger ticket items.