Silver’s Surprise Drop: The Real Culprit Revealed (Not Oil)

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Silver got knocked off course from its usual path during this geopolitical crisis that we find ourselves under.

[00:00:08]There's two things that are moving it in a dramatic direction to the downside right now. I'll discuss what they are in this video as we explore.

[00:00:24]Yeah, silver got hit pretty hard today.

[00:00:26]It was down well over 3%. In fact, it was about probably close to 4% move uh when at the most pain that silver fell today as it got down to $7343.

[00:00:40]Now, that is still the trading range that we've been used to with uh silver during this uh crisis, but it is now down 2.96% down $2.27 for the day to $74.82 82. Uh, as we watch these markets, they are about to close. Gold has also fallen, but not nearly as much. Down 1.14%, down $51.20.

[00:01:07]And platinum is down 1.74% down $34. Only metal that is up today is palladium, and it's only up a little bit, like three bucks. So, we're seeing it drop. gold prices falling, dropping more than $120 earlier in the day uh for the cheapest since the late March 4th uh lows despite talks of US Iran peace deals sending oil price bond yields and US Fed rate hike expectations sharply lower suggesting that the selling pressure in gold may be coming from central banks. That's reason number one.

[00:01:42]We're going to get into that in a moment. I want to thank some metals for sponsoring the channel. Check them out.

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[00:01:51]Link will be down in the description below. You know, it's pretty amazing to see how quickly things can change and what drives Silver's price moving from one day to the next. And right now, it is not oil because oil is actually down marginally today. In fact, well, actually, it's down a pretty good clip.

[00:02:09]It's down 4.76% down 89 down to $8942.

[00:02:16]Um so industrially useful silver and platinum fell to oneweek lows as well as palladium prices moving up. Now global stock markets meantime held little changed overall from yesterday's fresh record high on the MSCI world index uh with a drop in Asia offset by a rise in Europeanes and New York equities index futures according to Adrien Ash. And the recent gold sell-off increasingly resembles forced sovereign liquidity management during an oil shock rather than at the end of the long-term bull market according to trader Steven Enes. Uh ahead of the price slump that we saw today. Uh falling growth expectations and an eventual return towards dovish central bank policy could reverse the yield pressure that initially hurt bullion. But today's slump in the gold price uh that we saw came as betting that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates from December slip back to its weakest in almost two weeks according to Fed to data from the CME derivatives exchange Fed watch tool because that's reason number two that we're seeing silver prices get hit and of course gold prices and then silver follows. Silver gets hit harder all the time. Well, almost all the time. It's very rare that silver doesn't feel uh that doesn't feel the pain that that gold does. Usually, it's the other way around. Silver hurts more. Of course, on the other end, we see it uh move in the opposite direction where silver outperforms gold. Longer term rates in the bond market also hit the lowest that we've seen on a 10-year US Treasury debt in some time with UK guilt and German bond yields hitting 5we and 7-week lows, respectively. The central bank sector worldwide has a net buyer of nearly 244 tons of gold between January and March, according to the latest estimate from mining industry group, the World Gold Council. But available data published by central banks themselves showed net liquidation of 102 tons across the first quarter led by March's wartime clash for cash or dash for cash and currency market intervention by Turkey. We covered that on this channel. Of course, it's to cover then the buying back gold as well. So that is the difference. You know, there's buying and selling.

[00:04:42]Sometimes it can happen within a month and give it a time. But with the Central Bank of Russia continuing to sell gold in April, that data for end of March already took the reported gold holdings of national central banks worldwide down below 32,500 tons for the first time since the end of 2023, falling 1.3% by weight from New Year's 2025 multi-deade record. But of course, that's if you believe what's going on uh with uh Russia central bank. I'm I'm a little skeptical now because I've been burned by data being released uh from the central bank by the Moscow Times which is um evidently anti-Russian and so or anti-Putin prop uh and some people think of it as propagandist. I want to make sure that the sources I get are fair um in reporting that but likely they probably did sell some gold but we really don't know how much. Emerging market central banks are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold. Reckon analysts at US investment bank and London bullion market maker Goldman Sachs repeating their year end 2025 gold price for 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400 per troy ounce estimating that central banks as a group are buying twice as much bullion as they previously thought, running to 60 tons per month on average. But you know it's a what they predict that's going to be happening and what's happening right now what the numbers are coming out are two different things which is why the central bank selling or the perceived selling even if it's not real is what the numbers are reporting are going to have an impact and that's going to affect silver's price as well. So that's what we're dealing with at this point in time. It's really fascinating. Now, Goldman's update to its central bank demand analcast is based off tracking the discrepancy between London vault outflows and UK net exports of unrecorded sovereign gold flows according to analysts Lena Thompson and Dean Stuvian. So, they're digging in a little deeper, but the latest data from the Bank of England, the world's number two custodian of foreign central bank gold behind the New York Fed, shows its vaults holding 5,436 tons at the end of April, the most since summer of 2022.

[00:07:02]But gold, what gold does, silver will follow. That usually is the case. And that's what we're seeing today. That as well as the chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year. And you know what? I ruled that out until recently, even though some of you in the comments section said it was going to happen. I didn't think it was going to. Now, I don't uh now I'm not so sure. I think they very well could raise interest rates a quarter point by the end of the year, maybe even more. We'll see.

[00:07:30]Depends on what happens with the economy and how long we're going to see higher gas prices. Markets are rediscovering the concept of opportunity cost.

[00:07:39]counters analysts from Swiss Bank and London Bullion Clearing members UBS cutting their year-end gold forecast from 5,900 to 5,500 because gold's non-yielding characteristics are once again becoming more important consideration as real interest rates remain elevated even if they pause and don't raise rates. They think that we're going to see uh gold uh not maybe not shine as brightly. In other words, not near $6,000 an ounce. Uh, I don't think they're calculating a an interest rate hike, but it is playing a role here.

[00:08:11]Like gold, crude oil prices fell sharply today, snapping the past three months prior disconnect and dropping through $90 a barrel for the US benchmark WTI after Iranian media said Revolutionary Guard plans to restore full oil tanker access through the straight of Hormuz within one month of a formal peace deal.

[00:08:32]Uh, something President Trump is meeting with the cabinet. He's met with the cabinet to discuss that. Pretty much gave the same answers as he had as he said before. Iran desperately wants to make a deal. That excuse is kind of running flat with for most of us. We want to see something concrete and we all or at least him admit that there are factions in the Iranian government that are working against this deal public publishing uh alternative deals that the United States should agree to. Uh so it's it's a it's a game of uh you know uh who's got the the most media savvy and access and and we'll see how that all plays out. But regardless uh something's got to give somewhere. Uh but it is starting to give in terms of the oil prices are coming down. That's good. Gas prices are following but ever so slowly but still any relief is good relief. US ally Israel meantime told the 125,000 population of T and the neighboring Lebanon to evacuate immediately before it bombs the city in its campaign against Iranbacked Hezbollah political and military group and that is also important because it it really centers around you know this crackdown and war and everything like that will have an impact on the markets so we'll see how it plays out but there's your news uh with the silver and why it fell today and I I think we're likely going to see if we see the reactions that we saw today, it could provide a further uh chance for a disconnect between the uh the turned around situation between silver, gold and oil. Usually silver and gold rise along with oil. U but there's been other exceptions to that in the past but right now they are trading uh in in right now in the same direction. Oil is down so is gold and silver. gold to silver ratio increasing now but still under 60. It's 59.74.

[00:10:30]So there you have it. Let me know what your thoughts are about the markets today and about what silver is doing.

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