Dentons NZ chair Hayden Wilson on Budget expectations | Herald NOW Business

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Tomorrow's budget comes with limited room to move if government prioritizes saving and fiscal restraint. What does that mean for households and businesses?

[00:00:08]Katie Bradford spoke to Hayden Wilson, New Zealand chair at Dentons, and asked his expectations.

[00:00:14]Yeah, I think this is going to be an interesting budget. I think the most important thing is that it's probably not the budget that they sat down to write when they sat down late last year thinking about moving into an election year with the economy starting to come out of the doldrums, being able to that achievement and say stick with us through the next election, you know, and in February this year that all got tipped on its on its head.

[00:00:41]And, you know, the the war in Iran, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the effect of that on the the economy has only started to be felt. And that really does narrow the government's options for for this for this budget. They'll want to provide something to show the electorate that it's worthwhile sticking with a national lead coalition into the next election period, but the constraints on them are really really tightened and so they've been pretty clear that this is going to be a conservative >> [snorts] >> fiscally sensible budget.

[00:01:19]And we've seen some of that already in the announcements that have that have been made today and I expect that will probably continue. What is the something that they could promise given all those constraints, but also knowing it's election year and they're going to want to make Kiwis feel better?

[00:01:35]How do you do that in a way that's I guess adding to productivity and long-term thinking at the same time? I think my theory is that everyone as they go into an election looks back at the last 3 years and and asks themselves, you know, what has this government done that is is either made you know, made my life better or will make my life better.

[00:01:54]And we got some indication of that from the from the Prime Minister's speech.

[00:01:59]You know, it's very focused around security broadly drawn. So, we've talked about defense, security in terms of New Zealand's place in in a changing global world. Energy security is is obviously a key thing. And then ongoing economic security is a is is a is a is a real issue that that that New Zealand as a country has to deal with.

[00:02:25]The government's already announced quite significant spending into into defense with about 800 million going into the capital spending in in the defense sector and 700 million going into operational spending.

[00:02:38]There's been a couple of announcements about energy security with the new gas transition loans that were announced two days ago. And then that kind of leaves economic security and ends I suspect that there is something in the budget for that. Um, I wonder if it's something around KiwiSaver and continuing to increase New Zealand's savings rates because that feeds back into into the New Zealand economy if if um people are saving and they're investing then then that money is then available for economic growth and economic prosperity in New Zealand.

[00:03:18]But also we have this superannuation crunch coming. Everyone knows that it's coming and and this government and whatever the next government is has to find a way to to wrangle with that. And given those crunches and the fact that super and KiwiSaver do look like it'll be an election issue, do you think that's enough to allow the government to feel like it's it's handing out something while still being responsible? I think if you can do something in KiwiSaver that that people look at and go that will make this a better place for my children um particularly. That's a really effective political strategy. It was what Helen Clark [clears throat] did with interest free student loans so so many years ago. You know, that was designed to pitch to the moms and dads and grandparents of of children in New Zealand rather than to benefit them themselves. And I think investment in KiwiSaver is is like that.

[00:04:15]Um there's been a lot of talk about um the Fraser Wana Raise um super uh KiwiSaver 2.0 suggestion, you know, with with um almost a baby bonus accounts. And you've seen Winston Peters has come out, albeit at a lower level. Um that would be really bold uh if the government chose to to do that in this budget. Um but it would also be popular and it would also be the sort of thing that you know, a future government is unlikely to you know, feel able to to to take away even if even if they wanted to. So, that would be one out of the box, um but it would be a it would be a real impact and it would um I think back of the envelope it's about 300 million a year. Um so, it would be over the 4-year budget period of 1.2 billion dollar investment. Possible, but very very tight given the constraints that the government has has set for it.