SPY/QQQ Trend Move Coming | Key Gamma Levels Exposed

[00:00:00]Mixed results at earnings as well as heavy resistance on the S&P's keeping a lid on the market currently.

[00:00:08]But we do have a coiled market and we should be looking for a move sooner rather than later.

[00:00:15]At least outside of the small range that we've been in.

[00:00:17]We have a much bigger range outside of that. We'll talk about that and much more here though.

[00:00:22]It is whatever day it is, Wednesday the 22nd and Google just reported so did IBM and uh Tesla here and I'll try to flip to my after hours look.

[00:00:35]Um but you can see here yeah, Google little bit of a a pump and dump and then right back up to flat.

[00:00:41]Tesla here still down still under pressure but it's only down like 10 points so it's not the end of the world.

[00:00:46]We had IBM here this one was interesting. I'm not sure what happened here but you went if you go on to the morning stream on Carnivore Trades and watch our show what's moving markets before the open which you do every morning at 8:45. Um you'll see I talked about 200 on IBM being a possible like dip buy for earnings because A they already sandbagged everything with the declaration they made a week or two ago and B there was a pretty strong dealer level there dealer support at 200.

[00:01:17]So you know it was good for a scalp but it was interesting. Uh let me know in the comments if you did or didn't hear but I had an order at 210. You can see the low here on thinkorswim is 199.77.

[00:01:28]So and I I made sure to check it this day you know there there was something traded down there.

[00:01:33]However everybody else who had an order with me at 210 did not get filled and which was kind of strange and then when you go to the after hours here on IBM um on TradingView the low says 220 so I don't know is there the only thing I could think of was a kind of a routing issue or something like that in the after hours with the liquidity low but that was strange.

[00:01:55]Definitely a little scam there.

[00:01:57]That um that would happen. But again, it was just kind of a lunch money scalp there. But um yeah, nice little pop there. If you if you got that, let me know. If not, um yeah, it was definitely a scam.

[00:02:09]Um but anyway, as always, we can we can give you the levels, right? But I can't give you the actual trades, the actual risk management in real time. That's in the live trading room.

[00:02:18]And our show, What's Moving Markets, links are in the comments and the description. Uh, another really good day for us in the room as well on NQ.

[00:02:26]I talked about that this morning.

[00:02:27]Actually gave that out in our morning show, uh 28,950.

[00:02:31]And um that popped immediately.

[00:02:33]And we got a nice trade out of that. I'm still holding a runner. But nonetheless, we've got a little bit of a level here at 710.

[00:02:42]On the triple Qs, and that is something I'm watching because that's it just it just is, right? Let me just look just look at the chart, right? So, there's where it broke down.

[00:02:52]Um let me go to we're going to go to a 4-hour. So, you can see it kind of chopped right around there. That's where it broke down. I like looking at it on NQ. It's a little bit cleaner. There you go. Right around 20 you know, 20,300 350.

[00:03:05]And um you know, we backed off there. If you caught the show or the recap yesterday, I said we probably want to sell um and before the close here today. And um we did that, got out at 350. And we had a little dip, but ultimately kind of a choppy a choppy day. And we're we're held down by that 710 level on the Qs.

[00:03:24]No real changes either. And you can see for tomorrow here. Um you know, until that really goes away. And granted, that's still supportive. So, the dealer is a buyer there. But we [snorts] can't we're still not getting some traction going. Now, we'll see if some of this um you know, negative gamma here rolls off tomorrow with kind of that like the IV crush, right? So, we had Micron, Sandisk, um you know, all those other the memory stocks, uh you know, Korea selling off here. They all had great earnings, right? But they the stocks came down anyway, and that's usually a bear signal.

[00:03:57]So, I think that was the expectation, right? That was the expectation for IBM.

[00:03:59]That's what I thought 200 would be good.

[00:04:02]You know, anybody who wanted to hedge is already hedged now, right? Especially after what just happened. And same thing with Google. I mean, spot's been down here for like 2 months.

[00:04:10]Um and Tesla's been you know, Tesla's Tesla, but there is a concern here, you know, with earnings, right? Simple as that. So, we'd see a little bit of IV roll off here is and um we'll see if those lower strikes go away. You know, NTU after hours is doing just fine.

[00:04:29]Um there's ES as well. Spy finally tagged 750 after like 4 days of trying.

[00:04:35]Um still has not filled the gap up there at 750.76.

[00:04:40]And um yeah, I mean, like across I mean, I could probably just show you a across all expiry.

[00:04:47]It's not 32. We don't need that much.

[00:04:52]But um do that again.

[00:05:01]I forgot to open up here. Let's try this one here.

[00:05:04]Sorry, I do everything on one take.

[00:05:05]There we go. Um yeah, 750 still a you know, a big LG across all expiry. So, um and then even it's even there for tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. So, you know, overall um 710, 750, those are our levels that uh the the market's going to need to clear.

[00:05:22]So, sorry, that's for today.

[00:05:26]Today's close, that's no longer there.

[00:05:31]So, not in terrible shape here. And as and spiders were in good shape this morning versus the Nasdaq. So, um the Nasdaq did start to catch up throughout the middle of the day. Semis were strong. Nvidia finally broke out a little bit and got above you know, it tried it tried to play out this inside bull um inside bar here. It didn't quite finish there, but you know, it was strong. Semis were up. Um And again, watching this now as you have a failed head and shoulders. This is a fail Now we have a falling wedge potential.

[00:05:58]Um, and then software was the um the casualty there, but I don't think this is a breakdown. Um, I mean, I know you technically like you broke below the range low, but I think this that's a head fake. We'll see if I'm right or wrong on that.

[00:06:11]Um Transports here inside. Bonds got hammered.

[00:06:17]And stocks are not down. What's that telling you?

[00:06:19]Fiscal dominance is more important right now.

[00:06:23]Um And I think a lot of heads are going to explode soon, but um XHP up 1% even with bonds down.

[00:06:32]IYR down half a percent. We had banks flatish on the day. So again, this is a choppy tape. Really choppy. Very noisy.

[00:06:40]And right now I mean, we've been taking one trade in the morning and then we're sitting on it all day and it's been working out very nicely. Um, which I like to do that anyway, but right now like in the middle of the day there hasn't been a lot of opportunities.

[00:06:52]Very slow tape.

[00:06:54]Oil did clear that um I mean, I got to hand it to oil bulls here. So this you know, the 50 and the 100, that should be Usually when they converge like that and you haven't you know, you haven't consolidated, usually they're pretty good resistance. And it was resistance for 1 day.

[00:07:09]Um, and then it pushed right back up.

[00:07:12]There's still a lot of supply up here though.

[00:07:14]Um, so just you know, just kind of keeping that into account here. There's a 50% fib. It reacted there.

[00:07:22]We'll see if that stalls it out finally.

[00:07:24]130 is is still LG1 on USO for this week.

[00:07:30]XLE had a good day.

[00:07:32]And we'll see if it backs off. It went right to our spot there. You know, if you're aggressive, you could try it short here.

[00:07:38]Right?

[00:07:39]You could try a short here, but you know, it's a little ambitious.

[00:07:48]Um, XOP, nice gap up, little doji there though, so we'll see how that does. OIH did get a new high, so we talked about that yesterday, said that the higher there's a higher chance of this being a higher low now, and that is confirmed now cuz we made a higher high.

[00:08:01]But, um, it did not Well, it made a new closing high, but it didn't really close above the the high, I guess.

[00:08:09]So, still kind of a choppy tape there. Everything's choppy.

[00:08:13]Dollar inside day, no changes. Gold had a nice day though, still can't get above that resistance though.

[00:08:20]We'll see if that's a head fake.

[00:08:23]Silver, much the same, um, and same for the of the alt metals.

[00:08:28]Um, palladium has a possible inverse head and shoulder here, and then copper inside day also.

[00:08:35]Anyway, over to Bitcoin, retrace there.

[00:08:38]Um, we said thought we'd probably get something like that today.

[00:08:43]I will say this tomorrow though, if I think there's going to be a lot of pain tomorrow, um, in this. I I see a I see a trend coming.

[00:08:54]So, we'll see. Um, that could be to the downside, too, but I would assume it's higher.

[00:09:00]We'll see. We'll see if We'll see what happens.

[00:09:02]Got to clear this spot here. Um, bears, you want to break back below really either of these to stuff this bull rally here.

[00:09:14]But, if it goes up, um, there's clearance to 69.

[00:09:17]IBIT again, um, 3850 is LG1 for the week, but that could get moved up. We'll see.

[00:09:26]So, anyway, we'll see what happens here.

[00:09:28]Uh, yeah, Google still flat, Tesla still flattish, and IBM positive. So, anyway, that's it. We'll see what we get. Come join me on carnivoretrades.com. Links are in the description. Come check us out in the live trading room or whatever the live show What's Moving Markets on carnivoretrades and swing trading room and swing trades. We have a sale going on.

[00:09:53]Get in on that.

[00:09:54]Anyways, you guys take care. We'll see you guys all in the morning.