BMNR May Update: Staking 88% of ETH Bag, ISM PMI pushing higher

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]BMR announced on Monday this week they now hold 5.18 million E tokens giving them a treasury of 13.1 billion. You could see that they've also purchased 101,000 very similar to the past 3 weeks. The big news this week is that the staking jumped from 3.7 million tokens to now 4.3 million. That's 84% of the stack of ETH that they hold now earning yield. So that's the big news this week. You can see since the war started to May the 1st, right now the technology sector is leading, but Bitcoin and Ethereum 13.8 13.7%. So, it performed relatively well with all the geopolitics that's going on. And then the price this week stopped at $22.79 on Monday. I know it changed a bit, but we're going to be using this price so that we keep things consistent when updating the numbers. So, in this weekly BMRS video, what I'm going to do is I'm just going to quickly go over the numbers, talk about some key Ethereum level, the macro that's going around in terms of the crypto market, and then I'll finish up with my thoughts. For those of you who are new, my name is Colin. Welcome. What we do on this channel is that we do educational material. We look at crypto and stocks that we believe have long-term value.

[00:01:08]Now, before you jump into anything, remember that none of this is financial or investment advice. Markets are very volatile. As you can see from week to week, you risk losing your money. So, make sure you do your own due diligence and research before you get into anything. Furthermore, we have nothing to sell you. This is not a sponsored video. These are some of our holdings.

[00:01:26]Full disclosure, we do hold BMR. We do hold a big bag of ETH. And then finally, if you find that this content is helpful, give the video a like, subscribe, and then consider following me on X where I could tweet out stuff a lot faster. So, with that out of the way, let's get back into the video. So on Monday this week, they did give us an update on their numbers, but as usual, I'll go over the highle overview. You can see right now they hold 5.18 million E tokens. That's 4.29% out of that 5% alchemy. Still 200 Bitcoin. Cash position changed from 940 million down to 700 million. Now, they did use all of that cash towards Ethereum purchases. So remember that the Mr. Beast is still 200 million. The Orbs is 83 million. Their Pier 2 is still 30 million. So it gives you a treasury of $13.1 billion and you can see this 4.29% eventually they will reach 5% alchemy at the end of this year. Rough calculation 10 to 12 weeks. Give them 10 to 12 weeks and I think we're there if they continue to purchase at this rate. But Tom's accelerating the purchases. Now if you take a look right over here, their cash position is 700 million. Yes, it's a bit lower. Remember they've been trading slightly below MNAV and that's what we've been seeing. So, they haven't been able to raise as much cash, but at least they're putting it all towards their Ethereum purchases. So, it'll be interesting to watch this cash number starting next week. And then you can see right over here in terms of trading volume this week, it was significantly lower than what I usually expect around 625 million. That places them in the top 3%. So, lower than the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, with the Bitcoin recovery and then also Ethereum recovery, we can start to see that this number rise. But this is a key metric to watch from week to week because this is the lifeline of BMR. That's what allows it to tap that ATM. So that you could see from week to week they haven't been using their ATM as aggressive. Now in terms of the number of shares I left it exactly the same as last week 569 million because they basically poured that cash into buying ET and didn't issue any more via the ATM program. We can talk about covering SGNA accounts, but for now, let's leave it at that when we're looking at the numbers. So, looking at a snapshot of the numbers with that 5.18 million ETH, that's 4.29% out of 5% alchemy. Let's say ETH trading at 2330. That's sort of the average price. And that gives you an ETH treasury of 12 billion. Once you add in their cash and their moonshots, orbs, pier 2, and everything else, you end up with a 13 roughly.1 billion. You divide it by the number of shares that are outstanding. That's a NAB per share of $232, but they stopped at $2279. So roughly right now, they're trading at.99.

[00:04:06]So almost exactly what they're worth on their books. With respect to accumulation of ETH, I'm pretty happy with the numbers cuz they also bought another 100 1,000 E this week, just like the way they did in the past 3 weeks. We know they've been dollar cost averaging all throughout this market. And at this pace, I think they will hit that 5% alchemy in the next 10 to 12 weeks. You can see right over here in terms of dollar value, that's 238 million this week. Very similar to the past 2 weeks.

[00:04:31]And then if you look at the past sort of 8 10 weeks, they've been spending roughly 140 million and above. So in terms of total ETH, they're now at that 5.18 million ETH. That's 4.29%.

[00:04:41]Hopefully we can tap out in the next two three months, finish up with that 5% alchemy and then after that Tom and his team can let the shares run a little bit and expand that MNAB, start looking at alternative funding modes. Okay, so that's what I expect. Now in terms of staking, that was the biggest jump this week from 3.7 to 4.3 million E. That's 10.2 billion of stake. That's 84% of their stack. And then just a day later, you could see right over here, look on chain announced that they've updated it now at 4.55 million ETH. That's 88% of their entire stack. A lot of people keep on asking about this and now you could see BMR has aggressively started staking. I wouldn't be surprised if by next week or the following week they announce 100% of that stack. That's more than $10 billion earning ETH yield. Now, if you take a look right over here, you could see that, you know, significant rise in terms of number stake. Now, if we take a look at their staking revenue, the reason why they quote you in 352 million if they fully stake their stack now or over $400 million if they fully stake at the 5% alchemy is because they have to give you a value based on what ETH is trading at. Yes, it can go up.

[00:05:51]Yes, it can go down, but you can immediately switch ETH to USD. It's liquid enough. So, we have to give you a value over time so that you could see what it's worth. You can see right over here a snapshot in time right now. Right now they're earning $354 million at that 3% value. That's roughly almost a million dollars a month or 30 million a month of staking revenue. If you were converting that ETH into, you know, USD, but if you left that ETH and that ETH actually doubled, this number would double. They'd be making two $2 million a month. You can see that longterm, this is the holy grail of where BMR and Tom Lee wants to go, right? Once E crosses 3,000, we're now looking at $500 million. And then once it gets that 1012K that he keeps on predicting, maybe not this year, but in two, three years time, four years time, you could see the company's raking in more than $2 billion in terms of staking revenue of what they can use. Now, if you take a look at the cost base as I update this every week, we're now below 3600. We're at 35.84. So roughly 3,600 at today's price, 2330.

[00:06:53]That's roughly a $6 billion loss, a 36% loss. But again, if this number goes back to its all-time high again, and it's touched it plenty of times, you could see it flips to a 36% gain and a $6 billion gain. Finally, like I always say, they're building a fortress balance sheet. You look at a company with 13 billion on their balance sheet with literally zero debt. And with the assets that they have, you can see I've broken it down right over here for you to see.

[00:07:19]The Mr. Beast is roughly 1.54%.

[00:07:21]Everything else is.1% 6% 2% and really everything is in ETH. 92% is in ETH.

[00:07:28]About 5% is in cash. Okay. So this company has a very clean balance sheet adding on businesses and moonshots while they're growing their ETH stack with zero debt obligation. So I think in the long term the realistic number to look at is how much their staking revenue is giving you even at today's value converting it to USD. That's the important they get it in ETH but you can convert it to USD. That's about a million dollars a day. So that's a very clean balance sheet and I continue to support their effort in terms of growing that balance sheet until they hit that 5% alchemy. So let's look at some key ETH levels. You can see right over here right now for March we got 7% in April we got over 7% and then in May we're now up 5%. So for a lot of people who are bears who keep on saying sell in May and go away look at what would have happened. You would have missed out on a 41% run last year. the previous year 25% the previous year it's still positive so sell in May and go away did not work well for ETH now the biggest purchases for ETH are still the ETFs okay the ETFs and of course Tom Lee and the DAT treasuries but the DAT treasuries it's really just Tom Lee and a little bit of Joe Luben's company SBET but really it's just Tom Lee but the ETFs are the diamond hand holders of Bitcoin the cycle you could see for ETH the past three weeks 187275 and then we had an outflow last week 82, but we're now back in the green again.

[00:08:51]So, we continue to watch that as long as Bitcoin is making a recovery. It's now over 80K. I think ETH is going to continue to make its own recovery cuz remember, Bitcoin is that ocean that everybody else swims in. When the tide is going against you, it's really hard.

[00:09:06]But when the currents are with you, you could see that ETH will continue to make that recovery. Now, recall that ETH is still a very volatile asset. It's still 75% V. So that swing within a year could be very rapid. That's why we see that extreme volatility within the market.

[00:09:22]And then right over here, I update this every single week based on this week's number. You could see that at 1 MNAV at 2300, ours is 2330, but it's at $23.33.

[00:09:34]And if we didn't change anything else and just eat the appreciation at 1 MNAV going to 5K, which is its all-time high at 4,900, your shares would be worth $4644.

[00:09:45]And of course, going to 12Ks, that's $100, right? At 1.25 MNAV, you can see $2858 136. And then at 1.5 MNAV, this is now $33, $70, $160. I do think that they will recover and the MNAV will expand when we're in that bull market again.

[00:10:04]We've been there many times before.

[00:10:06]Okay, so these are some of the numbers that I'm watching in the short term and long term, but I'll continue to update this sheet so that people who tune in to these weekly videos will get a good idea what their BMR shares are worth based on what ETH is worth. In terms of the macro stuff that's going on, everybody's aware of the geopolitics and the chaos that's going on. Hopefully, the war ends and we move on soon. One encouraging data that we see is the ISM PMI right over here.

[00:10:30]The manufacturing PMI, it clocked in 52.7% for the past month in April. And if I bring up this number right over here, you could see that below 50 in terms of the PMI, we are in a contraction phase.

[00:10:42]The the economy is contracting. Whereas once we blow past 50, 50 is usually the line where we say the economy is expanding. Okay, why is that important?

[00:10:53]If we look at the previous data right over here and anybody can draw charts onto lines. Anybody can pick out any indicator that they want. But just showing you this right over here. This is by Smithston. Uh and he postes this chart. It's really good. Give him a follow. He postes very solid data on this. You can see right over here in the last, let's say the last bull run, 2021 double top right over here, 2022. You could see where the PMI went. It went over 60 65. Okay, we went into a bull run right over here in 2018. you know the PMI went over 60 63 close to 65 you can see right over here this is the bull run and then 2014 2015 again right over here when it topped out where is the ISM PMI you could see right over here above 55 above 55 so what does it say when you look at this current cycle is that the PMI has been trading down has been lower it's been in a contraction phase if I just go right back here for 8 months we've been in contraction phase below 50 we dip down to you 48 47.9 but since January of this year 2026 that's when we start seeing the expansion now we're sitting at 52 roughly 52.7 53 we're approaching that but notice right over here we're just coming out of that phase okay we've been in this contraction phase for a while and recall that you need to get up into the mid50s right over here even the 60s for you to see that thundering bull run as the economy starts to expand we start to you know uh add in a lot more expenditure you're manufacturing stuff, you start to see money come back in. So, as long as new capital liquidity flows in and the PMI flows in, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to make their move. So, the other big thing to watch out for is the Clarity Act that's specific to crypto.

[00:12:36]You can see the odds shot up right over here starting early this week from in the 40s to 70s and it's now hovering above 66 67% close to 70. It's because all the people who are working on it, including Coinbase, you could see right over here, their chief policy officer, he says, "In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters, which is the ability for Americans to earn rewards based on real usage of platforms and network. We also ensured that the US can be at the forefront of the financial system, which is the competitive geopolitical area is paramount. Okay, so it sounds like Coinbase is backing away from that position. Okay, cuz Brian Armstrong at Coinbase were really against this. So I hope that they see the big picture that you know we won't get the perfect bill passed but we get something passed and we can amend it later on. Then also Tom Tillis and Senator also Brooks they talked about how you know they listened to the banks there was a lot of concerns a lot of push back but the TLDDR right over here from Elanor Turret says that on the stable coin yield compromise amid push back from the banking trades signaling the deal is likely final.

[00:13:39]Okay, we respectfully agree to disagree.

[00:13:42]That's what Tom Tillis said. So hopefully all the parties who came at this table can see the bigger picture. I know the banking guys are going to try to hold this up. They're going to stall this up, but hopefully we can get this across the finish line so that we can be some of the leaders in the innovation in the space allowing everybody in the US to innovate. We won't get the perfect bill, but at least we'll get something passed. So I'm just praying that we get this passed cuz I'm pretty sick of the back and forth. We just get this done out of the way so that everybody can move on with their lives. we can allow innovation to continue within this country. And then finally, just coming over to the Ethereum chart, you can see right over here, I track my long-term trend. Like I said, every time Ethereum bounces off this trend at 18,1900, as long as it's a long-term trend, I continue to buy. Okay, so right now, since the last time we talked about it, right, since we started talking about the recovery, let's just say right here, just roughly, Ethereum has recovered 30 something%. Okay, let's just this is just rough right over here. since it's low back over here. So, I'm just going to extend it right here. Since it's low back in February, so early February where the fear and greed index was around five to now, Ethereum has made quite a sharp recovery, 36 35%. Right?

[00:14:54]So, that worked out very well when you're trading with the long-term trend.

[00:14:59]So, I don't care about the daily pattern, daily wedges, you know, the bare flags that appear every day or the other week. I look at it from a long-term point of view. And then coming right over here to my recovery chart.

[00:15:09]Remember in 2024 Ethereum dumped 47% in 3 months. Notice right here makes a 91% recovery in four months. Last year tariff tantrum 62% down within what? 3 months. And then within 4 months 206% up. Okay. So this time right over here 63% down from the October 1010. If we project out instead of just you know whether it's 260 or 100% right now it's already made a 36% almost 37% recovery but if we go out 4 months just like the previous two. So that's a 4 month this is a 4 month as well and we project out it should be around here. So I'm going to bring this back to here and I'll go up 100%. So 100% is roughly 3600. If we go to 200% making a 2x right over here.

[00:15:58]So, let me just go all the way up to here. Okay, that's roughly 5,382.

[00:16:05]Okay, from this mark. So, I'm just going to bring this down. That's a 2x from here from the low right over here. And roughly what day? In June of this year.

[00:16:14]So, we're just looking at timeline. Of course, this is not perfect. It may just go up midway to 90% 80%. But I do expect Ethereum to eventually make a recovery.

[00:16:24]So my thoughts going forward is that BMR is still continuing to do what they set out to do at the beginning. Once they hit that 5% alchemy, I do believe hopefully Tom gives us an update that they stop the ATM program and they start to let the shares rise or you know what's even more interesting if Tom starts to explore other avenues just like what Michael Sailor is doing with STRC in terms of preferred perpetras. We talked about this at the beginning. I'm even surprised that Tom is able to get to all 5% alchemy growing that treasury beyond 10, you know, 131 15 billion dollars by the time we're done for sure without tapping into any other instrument. So I do see an exciting time forward especially as Ethereum is rising. Okay. So once Ethereum makes that recovery, we do expect a lot more interesting stuff to happen. Right now BMR is exactly where they're supposed to be. You know, the market is slowly making a recovery. Once Bitcoin gets to 90,000 100,000, that's when the FOMO starts again and that's when we start seeing things rise. So, this week, not a lot to update except for the key numbers, so it keeps everybody in the community updated. I hope that you enjoyed this video. If you enjoyed this content, let me know. Consider subscribing and I want to wish you guys a wonderful weekend ahead and I will see you next