금리 인상, 외국인 대량 순매도... 국내증시 괜찮은걸까?

Añadido: 2026-05-27

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[00:05:25]Everyone stop [Song]. I see the next move first. hmm. uh. yes. hello? Today as well [laughter], Manager Jeong Myeong-je of Hyundai Motor Securities visited on Wednesday morning.

[00:05:45][Music] Yes. I am Kim Su-hong, the stock code. yes. Nice to meet you. yes.

[00:05:49]Nice to meet you. I've been visiting you every Wednesday morning like this, but Chai has n't been doing well recently either. Still, things always got a little better whenever we filmed, right?

[00:06:03]I hope today is a day where many stocks improve.

[00:06:05]Well, there were some market updates last week.

[00:06:07]How did you handle them?

[00:06:09]How do you view the psyche?

[00:06:12]Since interest rates are high right now, it seems like only stocks that can generate insane operating profits, even taking those high rates into account, are going up.

[00:06:25]That's right. I've been doing this since last Friday, so yes. Ah, the stock market is falling as interest rates spike. yes. Interest rates did spike a little yesterday, too.

[00:06:35]However, Micro rebounded yesterday, more than I expected.

[00:06:39]So, even if the interest rate goes up, yes. [Laughs] It seems like the current structure is such that only the kids who can make money go, and the rest all die, so yes.

[00:06:49]Uh, I do have a feeling that Sol-nim will only be able to resolve this once the war ends. The war needs to end.

[00:06:55]Overall, looking at the supply and demand, ah, the market is stabilizing. It seems like things will improve as interest rates drop. yes.

[00:07:01]Ah, as you can see, Code, it seems like the supply is going mainly to those who are making money anyway, so I suspect that we are seeing a phase where the supply keeps getting skewed.

[00:07:15]By any chance, how was the KOSDAQ market last week?

[00:07:17]Well, it's still the worst.

[00:07:19]Ah, even the KOSPI isn't the worst, well actually [laughs] they say everything is at its worst except for Electronics and Hyundai Motor.

[00:07:25]Ah, right. It seems like a difficult situation right now, as the market isn't rising at all except for a few groups. With the price dropping quite a bit last week, I imagine you received a lot of questions and messages. Was there anything particularly important that people asked about? The question is whether everyone should buy Electronicics right now, and the general consensus is, " Ah, you should."

[00:07:47]Anyway, the current atmosphere seems to be like this, so I don't know how long it will last, but for now, it looks like this bias has no intention of clearing up until the war ends. Hmm, right? In fact, with interest rates and oil prices soaring and macroeconomic uncertainty high, I also view this as a market where there was quite a bit of profit-taking in stocks that had been rising rapidly until now. yes. A lot of people are coming. yes. yes. Space, Inyoungboy, Bottle, Lee In-kyung, Google Dars, Speed ​​Kkobukgi.

[00:08:29]Ah, yes. yes. There are a few snakes being picked for the first time today. [Laughs] So, personally, I feel like this won't be resolved until the war really ends. Because the war is over. hmm. I received a message like that recently as well. How long do you think this has to drop before it rebounds?

[00:08:50]But the really scary thing about this is that Electronicics is missing almost nothing. [Laughs] That's right. So the problem is whether they might collapse further if they undergo a correction.

[00:09:00]However, regarding the recent Samsung Electronics strike issue, it seems there were some sectors that rebounded based on the expectation that the strike would be resolved. So, the market initially fell due to the strike, but then the expectation that it would be resolved led to Samsung Electronics continuing to rise while the rest fell again. Since the market continues to flow in that kind of atmosphere, resolving this skewed market trend is proving difficult right now.

[00:09:28]Actually, it seemed like almost everyone involved in the stock market has rarely experienced this, even those who have been trading stocks for a very long time. Yes, it has reached this level now. Because there has never been a business where the entire amount went to one side. hmm. You are really handling this difficult situation well.

[00:09:46]Especially in times like these, isn't it a bit scary to invest in the remaining stocks that have high debt ratios or were purchased using margin or loans? Excluding Electronicics, actually, starting about two or three weeks ago, Manager Jeong Myeong-je mentioned that interest rates in Korea could be raised. You always sent me those kinds of YouTube videos, and starting from that perspective, there were quite a few signals of rising prices. yes.

[00:10:11]At the same time, since there were views that interest rates were also jumping, risk management is something that should ideally be done starting from a bull market.

[00:10:18]Even if you were unable to respond, I think it would be good to refer to the ideas we are sharing in our comments today. Yes, I think so. By the way, I hear that bond yields are jumping significantly right now. Do you have any Doxy or follow-up regarding this? But actually, just like you wrote in the comment, I also went up to 4.692 and it was so scary. I’m really scared of this too. [Laughs] Well, I mean, the war needs to end first before the main trigger can really be resolved. Actually, if the US was going to go this far, I also think they should have just ended it with bombing early on instead of just agreeing to a ceasefire. It has been three weeks now, and contrary to expectations, they kept saying they would bomb, then saying they wouldn't, then saying they would, then saying they wouldn't.

[00:11:07]During this period, inflation has been rising, oil is scarce, and prices have gone up. On top of that, when passing through the strait, Iran wo n't be able to bomb you anyway because you consider this maritime trade so important. Seeing that they plan to collect fees here, and have even created a department to collect tolls under the pretext of protection money in Bitcoin, doesn't it make you wonder if this isn't a bit of a difficult situation for the U.S. because they have provoked something that has little to lose?

[00:11:39]Ah, right.

[00:11:40]But once this is resolved—or rather, once it is truly resolved—I feel like all these centimeters will drop sharply. Once the war ends completely and the strait is cleared, since interest rates are all shelf-type, I think they will drop sharply, right? Hmm, I think this is a bit of a scary section right now. Really. hmm. The interest rate over there wasn't dropping. I barely missed a single day today, either. I think it slipped a bit at the end when they mentioned they would likely consult with Iran. yes. It seems that interest rates are too high. Especially, isn't our country exploding right now? It seems like our country's government bond yields are in complete chaos too. It has hit exactly the peak line today, just as interest rates exploded in 2022. That's Uri. yes. yes. So, since it has reached exactly the previous high line, if interest rates rise further from here, it will set a new record high. So, personally, looking at it from the current perspective, I believe that the upward trend in Korean bond yields needs to stop at this point. However, if you look at these things from a medium-term perspective, there is a possibility that buying pressure will enter to some extent, with the view that Korean interest rates will no longer be able to rise starting today. Because interest rates have reached a significantly high level, fundamentals suggesting that it will be difficult to rise any further could form. So, there are also perspectives suggesting that today's turning point might be quite important. And today's topic was massive net selling by foreign investors. So far, foreign investors have been continuously selling Samsung Electronics and, in the case of the declining SK Hynix, and Korea has been supporting these selling volumes. So, regarding these things, how we should interpret the stock market... yes. I would like to talk to you all about these topics. yes. So, to briefly explain to you the content I prepared for today... yes. yes. What people are really worried about is that the stock price has risen too much recently, so wo n't it drop significantly?

[00:13:38]you're right. In the past, there were actually quite a few cases where stock prices rose significantly like this and then fell sharply the following month. And what kind of dark bubble was it in '98?

[00:13:49]you're right. I believe it was back in 1998 when it rebounded after crashing. yes. So, this is data from Kiwoom Securities. Back then, anyway, after a rally continued overwhelmingly, it usually fell the following month, but looking at the monthly growth rate now, it is true that it rose incredibly fast.

[00:14:07]It's almost a 4-con bubble. yes. It is true that it rose really quickly.

[00:14:12]However, when looking at the weekly figures for these rapid rises, you can see that after the sharp drop early last April, it rebounded quickly and rose, and as time goes by, it is gradually declining. So, looking at these factors, it seems that speculative buying pressure is gradually calming down. yes. From this perspective, rather than a rapid rise going forward, the market is now viewed with a cautious momentum. You could look at it like this. However, from this perspective, there are questions the market has. No, foreigners keep doing this. This is becoming a problem right now. And what became an issue in April was that people really bought a lot of 'T' that doubled in value on the Hong Kong stock market. But as this gets sold off, uh, aren't foreigners exiting now? Then, isn't there some kind of fundamental problem on the Korean side? There are a lot of these kinds coming out. But, there are two arguments regarding this. The first argument is this: No, really, something unknown about the fundamentals of the semiconductor industry is deteriorating. For example, if interest rates rise too high, wouldn't Big Tech companies be unable to invest? That would become a problem. And regarding cloud services and things like that, someone eventually has to consume them, but the consumption market is also going to worsen. So, there are also arguments that we should sell because the fundamentals are deteriorating. It is not the second. Recently, it has surged too much in a short period of time. And from this perspective, there are claims that properties being sold for capital gains are simply appearing on the market. So, when asked which of the two arguments is correct, in my view, there was a "what if" issue regarding the fundamentals, was n't there? Then the foreign ownership stake needs to decrease. So, the stakes held by foreigners should be decreasing, but in my view, despite the possibility that foreigners are selling—as you can see below, even though the blue stone is selling— you can see that it is rising with a significant stake. So, in my judgment, it is... Looking at the current market, rather than selling because semiconductors are performing poorly, the stock price itself has risen significantly over a long period recently, almost 100%. Then, regarding this, aren't they now realizing some capital gains and rebalancing?

[00:16:36]We can also think about it in this way. Given that interest rate levels have risen sufficiently and surged in such a short period, there is a favorable environment for profit-taking sales to emerge. Especially from the perspective of those looking to manage risk, they viewed April and May as favorable months for capital gains to emerge, given that the market could clearly shift toward interest rate hikes starting in the second half of this year. So, it is somewhat difficult to view it as having fundamental strength.

[00:17:10]There are indicators that allow you to practically check the fundamentals. Now, this is called the EPS growth rate. So, the requirement is how much the performance increases. Actually, even just looking at the first quarter, January, EPS is what is referred to as earnings. I'm asking this based on KOSPI earnings, but when I looked at it in January, it was 450.

[00:17:29]But now it has gone up to almost 920. I think this is where the point we need to consider comes in.

[00:17:38]Manager Jeong Myeong-je, your performance has increased significantly like this, hasn't it? yes. Do you think performance can improve like this regarding this? I noticed that a lot of questions are being raised here right now.

[00:17:50]But actually, some of my doubts are starting to be resolved.

[00:17:55]Anyway, as you know, Code, these are semiconductors.

[00:18:00]Originally, they pursued sales by stockpiling inventory and pushing it out, but now... [snorting] there is a continuous lack of supply, so it is a space where they need to purchase next year's volume right now for the long term.

[00:18:13]Right? So, regarding the price, there are now deals emerging that bind it into a long-term contract called an LTA, which eliminates uncertainty by guaranteeing that the company will sell to you above a certain price for the entire year. Therefore, while it might be difficult for the stock to rise sharply from its current position where earnings could drop or fall drastically, it also seems unlikely to decline significantly after earnings forecasts.

[00:18:35]However, in situations like this, people often ask if we should be paid ten times the amount, because if the return on investment appears consistent, shouldn't we be paid double? To that, we have actually heard that it goes up to nine times. almost. yes. That's right. If we assume the earnings here are 900 points, the index is determined by how many times the multiple is applied. If we assume 900 points and apply a multiple of nine times, it goes up to 8,300 points.

[00:19:00]And even if earnings were to decline slightly from the current perspective, given that it is 8,000 points even with a multiple of only nine times, it hit that point and came back. In fact, a multiple of nine. So, if the stock market improves and earnings turn out well, since the average was a 900-point multiple of 10 times, it could go up to 9,200 points. There are quite a lot of claims like this coming out right now. virtually.

[00:19:24]So.

[00:19:26]Looking at the current earnings momentum, the multiple is currently only about eight times. Since it is about eight times higher, when asked if it is really expensive now, people do n't see it as expensive. So, since there is no fundamental downturn, the stock market level itself can sufficiently rebound in the current phase; however, the arguments are that stock prices may not be able to rise significantly because interest rate levels are rising so high. However, here, the market is currently presenting two types of bonds as an advanced concept. Now, it is like this. Ultimately, what the market is curious about is whether the earnings will turn out well.

[00:20:04]So, the people currently advocating for this have a track record. There are also people who say this becomes 1,000 points. no. There is also a minority opinion that if things get really bad, it could drop to 800 points. Or, if things go really well, there are people who could reach 1,500 points.

[00:20:19]Say it like this. If you assign 10 times the number of columns here. Anyway, assuming Toro grants 10x multipliers to everything, the minimum goes up to about 8,000 points and the maximum goes up to 15,000 points. Now, the argument here is the method of inferring how much performance will be generated. At least not right now. Because to verify this right now, we need to check the second-quarter earnings results, which will be announced in the third quarter. We can only know what the valuation will be once it comes out, but at least from my perspective right now, the narrative is that nobody knows until the third-quarter earnings announcement. Uh, I wonder how much it will cost. Then, the argument is that if this narrative is still alive until the earnings announcement, let's keep going.

[00:21:04]So, the volatility would be quite high.

[00:21:06]However, from the current perspective, as I mentioned earlier, if long- term contracts are secured to some extent, it is difficult for performance to decline that significantly. Then, given that the upside is strongly open while the downside is supported, there will likely be significant buying pressure to purchase when the stock price falls to a certain extent. The upside being infinitely open is expected around the second quarter—that is, the current phase. However, once the third-quarter earnings are announced, if any guidelines regarding the performance appear from that point on, the upside will likely be blocked. So, looking at the market in this segment, I think it might hit a wall around here if earnings perform well to some extent. As for the second quarter—or to put it simply, until the third quarter when second-quarter earnings come out—if we assume that the narrative of the stock market proceeding as an AI cycle is still alive, then up until the second quarter. There are still quite a few possibilities for it to run. But starting from the third quarter, there is a possibility of taking a bit of a breather while looking at the earnings. But wouldn't the possibility of that break appear around the third quarter? So, looking at it from the current standpoint— whether from a fundamental or narrative perspective—we don't see any indicators that could cause a sharp downturn yet; this is simply what is visible when looking at EPS, multiples, and market grounding. So, if we look at just half of it, the exact concern is that as interest rates continue to rise, eventually leading to a rate hike by the U.S. and a decline in consumption, it is correct that buyers of memory semiconductors will reduce their purchases. I'm lowering it because I'm afraid something like that might come out now. Because if something like that comes out, all those forecasts will be lowered.

[00:22:53]Right? It seems our stock is currently rebounding because people are still buying it even at these rates.

[00:23:01]So that is correct.

[00:23:02]Anyway, above all else, I think it's important that the interest rate level tomorrow, or whatever it is [laughs], comes down quickly.

[00:23:07]Ah, well, it’s not an easy situation, but anyway, yes.

[00:23:11]Yeah, we went up to 900 per pound. It's up to 900 per now, right? There are many who argue that it needs to go up tenfold again, but in reality, most of the P/E ratios are being driven up by 3 points and Hynix.

[00:23:24]So, please keep 3 points and Hynix in mind. But as Manager Jeong Myeong-je just mentioned, interest rates are extremely important. The one I brought yesterday was 4.6, but today I managed to beat it even at almost 4.7. So, looking at the current range, the important line I see is that even if it rises sufficiently to the 4.8% and 8% lines, given past experience, neither the US nor the Korean stock markets have fallen as much as expected despite rising interest rates.

[00:23:53]So, from our perspective, isn't it dropping significantly? However, in the past, when bond yields rose this much, they actually dropped by 2 or 3 percent. But in this case, the drop is smaller than expected. Because they might have had the experience. Or in the market, they ask, "Hey, why are you so worried about interest rates going up by just 0.1% or 0%?" If we say that we wo n't reduce our investment because of this, then it might be okay. Or even if interest rates go up, hey, so what if they go up? You could also view the stock price as being cheap. I do n't know what your thinking is, but the rising interest rates are a burden. So, we need to come up with an idea here. If you are currently worried because interest rates have been rising, and your main concern is indeed interest rates, then first and foremost, you must also consider the perspective of how high these rates might go. Secondly, we also need to check what indicators might ultimately lead to a decline in interest rates. People typically look at WTI crude oil prices, but you can't predict that. So, first of all, what I am focusing on is how the central bank will act in these zones—that is, in an environment where oil prices are currently high? Because even from the central bank's perspective, it can limit interest rate levels depending on what stance or attitude it takes. As recently as April, the Fed was able to control bond yields down to 4.5%. If oil prices were to skyrocket, they said it was temporary and suppressed it to less than 4.5%.

[00:25:30]However, since the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were released this past May, there are indicators that make it difficult for even the Fed to claim that this is temporary. So, if you familiarize yourselves with the details, you will be able to see what indicators emerge next month and whether interest rates can be controlled.

[00:25:53]Okay, the content is difficult, but I'll just try to do it simply. There was originally a outlook up until now. The outlook so far is that the arguments of the proponents of monetary policy are as follows.

[00:26:03]Interest rate levels are expected to fall in the future. They argue that current interest rates are too high and that they will eventually fall. The reason is... The current price increase is due to a temporary supply shock, not strong demand. So, regarding interest rate policy... It is a policy that ruins demand. But with oil prices rising right now, isn't the fact that prices are jumping up a lot?

[00:26:26]Oil prices are skyrocketing; can you control them by raising interest rates? The point is, you can't catch it. If you raise interest rates, it will only ruin the economy and you won't be able to control inflation, so just lower the rates. These kinds of claims are emerging. And there are also indicators such as the job opening ratio that show the economy isn't doing very well. And what the market is really worried about is... If oil prices skyrocket and spill over into other prices, it will be chaos.

[00:26:48]So, the core essence that you need to be aware of is... One price is going up. If prices in other places all go up together because of the rise in prices, it would cause a huge uproar.

[00:26:59]But originally, if almost other prices were to rise, the hourly wage should also go up, but the problem is that wages are not high right now. That is why, hey, even if oil prices rise, we couldn't convert them to the prices of other goods, so it has been empty until now. However, the problem is that there is also a recent rise in what is called inflationary expectations, which is the sentiment that prices will go up in the future. It's gone up too much. It has gone up a lot. However, in the case of inflation expectations based on current surveys, the short-term outlook has risen, but the long-term outlook has not. But there is a long-term inflation expectation survey that could be released next month. If the current trend continues, long-term expected inflation in next month's survey could also spike.

[00:27:46]So, since the Fed's top priority is stabilizing sentiment expectations, they may take a hawkish stance; however, indicators suggesting that inflation figures could spike are being released slightly this month.

[00:28:02]This is called the GSCPI, and it assesses how much the price shock from oil prices is being transmitted to other areas of price. For example, we had the year 2021. There was a time in 2021 when used car prices skyrocketed.

[00:28:19]Then, at that time, this claim emerged.

[00:28:21]Hey, regarding the skyrocketing used car prices, is n't it just that the temporary system is causing a surge in only one specific item? So that's why. It makes no sense for us to raise interest rates based on the fact that only this one item is skyrocketing. It was a mess. The argument was that, at the very least, for interest rates to be raised, prices for other things, not just used cars, must all go up together. But the reason used car prices went up at that time is... It was because there was a shortage of semiconductor supply. At that time, if used car prices were rising due to a shortage of semiconductor supply, one would have essentially understood the essence of the situation and wondered if this could cause home appliance prices and other inflation to rise as well.

[00:28:59]That is why the GSCPI was created back then—to comprehensively examine semiconductor supply, shipping, and various freight costs to check how much supply-driven issues spilled over to different product categories. So, when you do that, there is a way to look at the chart. On the side, supply chain shocks typically occur in the range of 0 standard deviations on average, but recently, starting from the last few weeks, it has reached plus 1 standard deviation, almost 2 standard deviations. This is what it is.

[00:29:37]Normally, if the cost of supplying—to put it simply—was 1 million won, now we have reached a situation where the cost has suddenly skyrocketed to an extreme level compared to normal—to the point where we practically have to produce it at around 2 million won. This was created recently. Recently, indicators have emerged showing that quite a few supply-side bottlenecks are actually occurring, and this is starting to show up slightly in the Producer Price Index. Now, regarding the PPI data, it measures how much the prices of intermediate goods and similar items have spiked after excluding energy and food prices. Even up until February, when there was clearly no price shock—although this could be due to the impact of tariffs—there are stages one, two, three, and four. To put it simply, the Circle is just a basic material, the 2 is an intermediate, the 3 is a slightly higher-grade intermediate, and the 4 is a finished product. If we look at it this way, overall, it started to spike a bit starting in March, and then from April onwards, it spread across the board. You can see this, right? yes.

[00:30:54]What is it about prices spikes across the board starting in April? So, looking at this, it is highly likely that the supply-driven price catch-up shock is actually transferring to a wide-ranging price shock. There is a significantly high possibility that prices will also come out high in the CPI and PPI to be announced in May. That is why there are arguments emerging that interest rates must be raised at the Fed if the price shock becomes widespread in this way, and the period we were able to recognize this indicator was between May 12 and 14. And regarding the bond yields that started to spike, they began to jump starting last Friday. You can view it as an environment where bond yields had been maintaining at 4.5%, but then Japan said, "We can't handle international competition," and combined with bond supply and demand, everything spiked together. So, we need indicators that show these negative factors are being resolved.

[00:31:44]To see if they are being resolved, we need to look for indicators showing a decline in prices in May or June.

[00:31:53]Then interest rates will definitely drop.

[00:31:56]Or, if oil price levels drop, interest rates will drop immediately as well. So you just need to check two things. The best thing is that oil price levels drop. It would be best to check this, so ideally, it would be to check when the blockade of Hormuzhu is lifted, but it is impossible to predict. Then, the other thing is that even if oil prices rise, we just need to see indicators showing that these prices are stabilizing more than expected due to supply-driven shocks. For example, this time, while negotiating with China regarding tariffs, Trump said he would lower tariffs on certain items.

[00:32:27]Then, if the extent to which such price satisfaction is easing is visible as an indicator, bond yields may not rise any further. yes. So it is good to check these indicators, but to check them, you need at least next month's prices.

[00:32:41]Until then, it is quite likely that bonds will maintain their current high interest rates. So, rather than viewing it from the perspective that interest rates will definitely fall rapidly for the time being, it is more accurate to think that the high-interest rate environment could remain quite high until next month's inflation indicators are confirmed.

[00:33:00]I think it would be good to check these things. Or, interest rates will likely react sensitively depending on oil price levels. I think it would be good to check these things. So, this is a point you need to be aware of regarding interest rates. If rates remain unchanged until next month, it could have some impact on the stock market.

[00:33:16]But if I may give you a tip, even in an environment where interest rates are rising. The bubble hasn't ended yet.

[00:33:24]I have brought up all of this regarding the past Da-Com Bubble. Starting from 1999, prices rose significantly even during the Da-Com Bubble period. Looking at the price indicators at that time, if you look at the chart on the right, prices rose significantly when they went from 2% to almost 4%. They raised interest rates at that time. So, even when interest rates were raised despite rising prices, the stock market didn't take a downturn. yes. And the time when it actually took a turn was... At that time, today was over 50 pp and did n't drop. Then, a crash occurs as Intel downgrades its rating. So, ultimately, the core essence of a bubble period is... After all, interest rates are rising and the market is uncertain. You get stuck with the leading stock. A unique flow. So prices are rising too much. You must all be worried, saying that interest rates are rising. You can see that prices are going up like this, right?

[00:34:18]You can see that the high and low prices will be maintained starting next month, right? From this perspective, when asked whether leading stocks will decline, they do not decline easily. According to the flow of the past. And what the market is worried about right now is that if leading stocks falter, stock prices could crash. This is supposed to be dirty, but as we saw earlier, if you look at the KOSPI index, it is ambiguous whether the current level is completely expensive. From someone's perspective, it might look cheap.

[00:34:43]Then, interest rates are rising sharply right now, so interest rates are going up drastically. So even if the stock market takes a downturn, hey, it's already at a cheap or reasonable price right now, so what more could it possibly fall? So, you can see it like this. The reason the stock bubble was frightening in the past was that stock prices, which had risen to bubble levels, plummeted as earnings guidance was also lowered, causing a crash. However, looking at current stock prices— such as Samsung and SK Hynix—one could argue that from some perspectives, they are in an overvalued territory, and even if the bubble bursts, the decline would only be about 20%. Of course, some stocks are indeed in a bubble. Some stocks may have bubbles, and in their case, if interest rates are raised sharply and the stock market takes a downturn, their prices could fall significantly; however, if you judge that there are no major problems in terms of fundamentals... Even if the stock market takes a downturn, it may not fall significantly. From this perspective, if you continue with your current ideas, what you need to check is that if interest rates become high, there could be a concentration of investment in leading stocks.

[00:35:57]However, if these leading stocks are not expensive, you might consider holding onto them. With this in mind, I have brought you these contents today. It's so good. yes. yes. So then, at that time, yes, yes. Did only Intel go up?

[00:36:12]Ah, well, IT companies like Intel have risen a lot. yes. However, since there is a representative company like this among them, I wanted to let you know.

[00:36:21]Actually, I’m just noticing it myself, but why is the stock not working well here right now, so you have to press this directly? A little bit yes. Uh, if you ask if it's hard, yes.

[00:36:33]Actually, if we were to put it in words, the current interest rate is about 4.5%. yes.

[00:36:40]Ah, yes. It's down there. It's about 4.5 right now, isn't it? Then yes, yes. At around 4.6%, if I buy a 10-year bond now, it means it gives me an annual return of almost 5% —roughly 4.6%—is that correct? Even if you buy something like a corporate bond, it's almost 5%, right? So, I think it might be easier to understand if you think of it as a situation where the stock price only goes up if you buy stocks that can earn you more than this—stocks that can unconditionally give you a return of at least 5% every year. So, the easiest answer to the question of why stocks become less attractive when interest rates rise is, in my personal opinion, that if you buy U.S. bonds right now, they pay the annual interest rate of 4.6% for the 10-year bond written here. that's right. However, if interest rates fall, you can also earn capital gains. But if demand starts to split regarding whether I can generate an annual return of over 5% for 10 years after buying a U.S. organization like Micron or Nvidia, then the stock market might waver a bit, and that is correct.

[00:37:43]But then, just when I realized, "No, that's not right. We're going to make 20 to 30 percent every year," I wondered if the money was shifting to the companies that are currently making more money? Right. So, I suppose there is a bit of a concentration in the leading stocks.

[00:37:55]you're right. Especially in the current environment, there aren't as many companies as you might think that can earn a 5% return annually. yes.

[00:38:06]Anyway, yes.

[00:38:09]I also... regarding the directors, excluding Samsung Electronics and Hynix... I feel a bit sad, and it hurts my heart too [laughs].

[00:38:20]Anyway, I’ve brought some news about the directors from yesterday. If you look at the news, people are screaming about how interest rates have gone crazy. Even after giving it careful thought, the reason people ask if many will go up, excluding Samsung Electronics and Hynix, is that a great many KOSDAQ companies have very high debt ratios. Most of the companies that generate that cash revenue are semiconductor companies. So, since the semiconductor industry is doing well, affiliates that are not tied to AI are actually in a somewhat difficult situation right now.

[00:38:58]Therefore, it seems that the high interest rates are becoming a burden for those that are not tied to AI. So, interest rates are high. Then you have to pay more interest, and paying interest reduces your profits.

[00:39:11]Then, it seems like a vicious cycle is occurring where stock price estimates are also coming down. For example, even if a company is making money—whether it's bio-money or cash—and its debt ratio is 400 billion or 200 billion won, if interest rates rise by 2%, interest expenses increase by billions of won again.

[00:39:37]There are concerns that profits might slow down due to such worries. However, since the semiconductor sector scoops up cash even after incurring borrowing costs, it is not significantly affected by interest rates, which is why I think people are flocking to it even more right now.

[00:39:48]Also, based on my personal observations recently, among the companies with relatively good returns in the market—even small stocks—first-quarter operating profits have been announced, and for sectors with tremendous earnings, the stock prices have been fluctuating significantly, and the performance of these companies is all excellent. Should n't we look into that aspect? So, it seems we are in a situation where we need to look at sectors that performed well in the first quarter and are not scary to invest in even if interest rates rise. In particular, I did n't bring this up just because of this specific stock; I did so because of the information regarding the KOSDAQ, where the debt ratio continues to rise. Apparently, the debt ratio for the KOSDAQ remains at 122%. Given that the debt-to-equity ratio is also very high, I think it could be more vulnerable to COSAK when interest rates rise.

[00:40:46]Next, regarding Samsung Electronics, if we look at the details, it seems that while they are still trying to calm things down, negotiations are still ongoing.

[00:41:01]Furthermore, regarding the border issue that was a topic of discussion this year, the reason for the move yesterday is that, as the CEO of Samsung Electronics mentioned, Chinese companies are expected to surge in next year. The reason I call this a " down cycle" is that, to put it simply, let's say Dubai Jjondu cookies were very popular, and we sold them at four stores. We were making ten of each and selling 40 every year, but word got out and people started demanding 80 instead of 40 every day. So, these shops are saying, "We can only make 40 at a time, but if you make 80, line up and sign the contract." The current structure is that I line up to sign contracts, ensuring you can take home a certain minimum selling price every day for a year.

[00:41:51]Now, Chinese DRAM manufacturers posted profits in the trillions of won during the first quarter. So, for example, these kids issued a lot of certificates, and while there were originally four Duzhongku stores owned by our country, the Chinese kids added two more, and now they are saying, "We will make 60."

[00:42:08]Then, couldn't the price negotiations fall through a bit? So, since you brought up the topic of the downcycle yesterday, there was some fluctuation in the stock market the day before yesterday.

[00:42:19]So yes. Then China would have to raise its technological capabilities to that level.

[00:42:23]Ah, actually, the technology can't be improved right now. So, this is the semiconductor generation, yes, yes. Now, the generations are divided into a, b, xy, and z. This is the most old-fashioned one. This is the latest, ah, x is the oldest, and China has caught up a bit with xyz. So, as far as I know, what is currently being developed is this C. yes. Uh, since my computer is lagging a bit, let me let you know that we are currently developing in C. We are currently developing Stage C, but China cannot do it right now. As far as I know, China has now caught up to level Z. We have caught up to the level of One Jet, but there is still a gap remaining regarding C. To bridge that gap, we still need equipment from the manufacturer known as ASM, so there is still a long way to go to catch up. However, the reason the semiconductor industry is doing well right now is that there is massive demand for memory, even excluding HBM and the latest DRAM. So, I would like you to understand that the very fact that they are following us like that could be a bit of a burden for us. yes.

[00:43:39]So, I think it would be enough to just keep in mind that there have been some concerns recently. Yes.

[00:43:52]Yes, on the right and left. uh. yes. Next, if we just take a look at the news, there was an issue where it was reported that Hyundai Motor and the CEO of Kia Motors would list Boston Dynamics on the stock exchange. But originally, the content was released around June of this year, so people went in with the expectation that it would happen in 2027. However, as some details emerged, it seems there were some concerns, with people wondering, "Is n't this going to be pushed back to 2028?"

[00:44:22]So, I think you can view it as Hyundai Motor having had some issues like this, and is the recent rise in its stock price due to this? As far as I know, there was talk that Boston Dynamics decided to go public in June so it could be completed as quickly as possible.

[00:44:37]Furthermore, the persistent concern is that given the massive amount of money being invested, these companies ultimately need to make a profit to prove that this isn't an AI bubble.

[00:44:51]However, the most important aspect of making money is whether you can actually make money; the medium through which you earn money is very important.

[00:44:59]So, what came out a lot were robots, autonomous driving, and then AR glasses. Whether it involves utilizing AI on the surface or laptops that use AI on- device— laptops with things like Choi Ji-T built-in—these aren't popular right now, but demand is emerging. I'm not sure how it will turn out, but what we think will generate the most profit is, first of all, robots.

[00:45:31]There was this issue, but if the IPO is pushed back a bit, it seems like expectations are starting to build. Next, to mention another piece of news, I was wondering which direction we should look, and the rally in China yesterday was the worst. yes. Also, as domestic demand is collapsing, China is once again in a situation where it has to inject money into the economy. China is already in a situation where its economy is stagnating and continuing to experience negative growth, giving the impression of deflation, so it is considering other measures to stimulate the economy. If domestic demand is boosted in this way, it could lead to active spending by Chinese people. Actually, looking at all the news from yesterday, regarding beauty editing in China, and the money Chinese people are spending at duty-free shops after coming over to our country—the money spent domestically— stocks like hotels are doing well these days, and domestic department stores are all doing well, aren't they? If China implements stimulus policies in this direction, we might get entangled once again. I think it would be good to take a look at it from this perspective. It seems we are currently in a polarized situation where, while the U.S. is suffering from inflation, China's economy continues to lean toward recession, raising concerns. I would appreciate it if you could look at it this way, and another point is that consumption in our country is also becoming polarized.

[00:46:43]Actually, department stores are laughing, university marts are crying, and Daiso is laughing.

[00:46:48]So, consumption of extremely expensive items worth several million won is currently very active. However, items costing 100,000 won or tens of thousands of won are n't being consumed at supermarkets. So, while people buy a lot of luxury goods worth 1 million or 2 million won, they don't buy items at supermarkets; instead, there is a significant demand for them to go to Daiso to buy cosmetics and similar items. So, this is referred to as the K-shaped economy, where expensive items remain expensive and cheap items are consumed at even lower prices, causing hardship for the middle class.

[00:47:18]Currently, this is dividing the economy into premium experiences and ultra-low prices. So, when we invest right now, could you please just consider that investing in these ambiguous middle-price areas carries a slight risk? With consumption currently in this state, cheap food and beverages like those at convenience stores are actually selling well, and while really expensive omakase restaurants are doing well, the mid-range options aren't performing as well. As for themes, did stock prices essentially already rise recently when there was talk of government subsidies? The reason I mentioned this is actually because, even if you buy stocks of clothing or domestic companies right now, yes. yes. Ah, when you are analyzing the situation, if you look at medical companies with good stock prices, those that sell very expensive clothes, or— uh, as I mentioned earlier—those selling medical products related to China, or those with good sales targeting foreigners, or those doing well in areas like Seongsu or Hongdae— those that sell very expensive clothes tend to have good performance. So, if you understand that this is the current trend, for example, if you bought shares in medical companies and wonder why your company's performance isn't good while another company's is doing well, I would like you to consider whether this is a situation similar to the current K-shaped consumption trend where expensive clothes sell better and cheap clothes don't. Yes here. yes. I thought that would happen, and anyway, while there was a huge scream of fear regarding secondary batteries, Korea is actually starting to look like a smiling country. Another person just commented saying they are worried it might go down the same path as the secondary battery market [clears throat], but the fortunate thing is that it is true that the demand for AI and electric vehicles is skyrocketing. So, battery material prices are also at their highest level in three years.

[00:49:16]Lithium, nickel, and cobalt prices have all rebounded significantly.

[00:49:23]From this perspective, everything has jumped up recently. It's LG Solution, right? And now that the situation has come down quite a bit, I kind of think it might be okay for us to take another look at it.

[00:49:33]Next, regarding this, actually, just like with electric vehicles, demand is really important. I also think that this is actually a very important situation right now.

[00:49:43]yes. Because, as far as I know, even in the U.S., the surplus energy differs between the West and the East. For example, as far as I know—though I am not entirely sure—in regions like California, there is an oversupply of solar power.

[00:49:57]In fact, there is so much money left over there that there is a significant demand for a system to store this surplus electricity when the solar power goes out across the entire region.

[00:50:10]So, in those regions, since there is a lot of solar power, they actually need to install additional power grids and ESS. It varies by region, so even in the eco-friendly sector where there is surplus energy, simply installing a lot of eco-friendly equipment is n't necessarily good. If there is surplus energy, it needs to be stored and distributed so that it can be used nationwide. Therefore, the demand for secondary power is actually in a very good situation. However, the biggest problem here is that there was some concern that if China and the U.S. reconcile significantly, they might use Chinese batteries instead of ours. You can view this as a concern, and even if relations between the U.S. and China improve drastically, it is still bad news for our battery companies.

[00:50:49]When looking at electric vehicles, were n't there some important things like legislation? There were issues like subsidies, and things like that probably aren't a big problem for me right now. Rather, the issues seem to be related to eco-friendliness, solar power, and violence.

[00:51:03]So, our country's batteries are not bad right now. However, if we do not impose heavy tariffs on China, we could fall behind.

[00:51:10]I think it would be fine if you just knew this much.

[00:51:12]Then, news is also coming out about biotech companies that nobody pays attention to these days. Both the 19th and the 19th were yesterday. Now, regarding the leading stock Alteugen, there is the fact that its partner, Mer, continues to win patent lawsuits, and also Celltrion is a biotech company listed on the KOSPI that is generating significant earnings. However, since the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continue to rise while the others do not, the situation is such that they are actually making an effort to appeal to shareholders by sending letters promising to raise the stock prices as soon as possible. So, even in sectors where the situation is bad, companies are somehow acknowledging it and making moves to overcome this gap. Therefore, even though things are spiraling toward the worst-case scenario, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea for us to at least take a moment to understand the situation. yes. yes. So, I just gave a detailed explanation for each sector. In the case of batteries, the biggest concern right now is that although business conditions have improved, there seems to be some widespread worry that Korean companies might fall behind if the U.S. starts using them again after having stopped using Chinese ones.

[00:52:23]Then, regarding consumption as well, stock prices weren't bad when AI fell. Because consumption remains steady. However, when making investment decisions, I would like you to focus on whether the market is firmly gripped by extremely undervalued stocks or if the very expensive sector is generating strong performance.

[00:52:39]Additionally, if China decides to implement stimulus measures again, it would be good to look into companies that could benefit from China's domestic demand, or rather, its travel demand.

[00:52:49]As for robots, while they are ultimately the primary means of generating revenue through AI, I do think there is some lingering concern that their IPOs could be pushed back by another year.

[00:53:03]Next, regarding semiconductors, the main points seem to be how much China will surge and to what extent the U.S. will loosen restrictions on Chinese semiconductors. yes. Looking at the Director's remarks, such as the interest rate hike, it seems you have covered almost every issue overall. Are you saying that a decision regarding the Rose strike will be made today? It seems like we are starting something new in the city again, so we thought it would be good to watch the news. We plan to explain everything, answer about three or four questions, and then greet you again.

[00:53:33]Also, since I have already explained the Lijiang attire, I think the same applies to the other stocks that didn't rise when semiconductors fell. It seems the biggest factor is that earnings estimates for the remaining stocks are continuously being cut as interest rates keep rising. After all, everything is ultimately for your own benefit. If interest rates are 0%, it is good because investors who borrow a lot of money to invest will make more money. However, due to market characteristics such as high debt, it seems that the KOSDAQ is in a difficult situation.

[00:54:03]That's right. In fact, even those who wanted to buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix until now might sell their existing underperforming stocks and move to these if they hear that Samsung and SK Hynix are going down. yes. There are various things. It seems there were a few issues. yes. yes. Uh, I heard that Mr. Mast has an interview, so if the opportunity arises later, I would like to [clear his throat].

[00:54:28]Uh, Masson looks like someone I've seen somewhere before. yes.

[00:54:31]Oh, really? [Laughs] You might end up working right under me, but I hope you do your best to meet me when the opportunity arises. yes.

[00:54:39]Then we'll be able to meet again. [Laughs] I will introduce you. yes. In the case of Hyundai Motor, its stock price has dropped quite a bit recently, hasn't it?

[00:54:51]LG's stock price has also dropped significantly recently. For stocks like this, are there any specific perspectives on how we should view them?

[00:54:57]I just have such a headache these days, so I think the best solution I can think of is to view it from a profit perspective. However, in the case of Hyundai Motor and LG Electronics, LG Group companies did not earn more money. Ah, right, right. But for those that were originally valued five times as robots, we gave them ten or fifteen times more.

[00:55:19]Right?

[00:55:20]So, it seems that those that have risen based on that valuation are a bit vulnerable if interest rates go up, while those like Samsung Electronics and Lynx that keep making more money seem like a good choice since they are making more money anyway.

[00:55:30]So, I actually think it might be a bit difficult for things like that to add value when interest rates go up.

[00:55:34][Snorting] That’s kind of my opinion. This is just my personal opinion, but I also agree with that stance. yes. yes. yes.

[00:55:41]Also, Minbo, you said you just want me to cheer you on, so I hope today is a day filled with fighting spirit and strength, and that the stock market becomes a happy one. I hope you always stay strong.

[00:55:53]Gugu also mentioned that there isn't much talk about short selling, but rather than everyone dying out, the market has already lifted all regulations on short selling, so it is already taking place. So, it is likely a market where prices tend to rise like this even after short selling is lifted. So, since it is a market that runs well whether there is short selling or not, if earnings go up, the short sellers might all go dead, just as you mentioned, so yes. In terms of investment, there is actually a lot of short selling on stocks with rising earnings, but the first-quarter results came out exceptionally well. In that case, the short seller actually has to pay it back.

[00:56:27]With short covering. In such cases, the stock price can gain more momentum, so it would be beneficial to take advantage of that as well. You asked what the KOSDAQ multiples are, but since I don't check KOSDAQ multiples very closely, I haven't been able to look into it actively. However, as far as I know, regardless of the situation, the multiples of companies other than semiconductors have all risen together, even when considering forward earnings. So, regarding the data I saw in the past, I debated whether or not to bring it here and decided against it. If you include only Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the multiples look low, but the moment you exclude those two, everything becomes expensive. yes.

[00:57:04]I think we can check those perspectives. And regarding KOSDAQ, biotech is also very important, but since biotech is so sensitive to interest rates, I personally feel that the war needs to end. [Laughs] Ah, when the war ends, yes. I have a feeling that if the war ends, there will be expectations that interest rates will drop, followed by oil prices potentially rising, and then if a bottleneck arises where funds related to that are released, money might flow in in large quantities.

[00:57:31]But since the war isn't ending, it seems like people are flocking even more to sectors that are sure to make money. I think the real top priority is for the war to end. yes. Even if the war ends, the supply bottleneck mentioned earlier— called GSCPI—was scary because prices can rise even after the supply is cut off. Then, even if oil prices fall, there will be a problem. So, for the war to end, it must end before July. If the impact continues until July, the ripple effect will last longer than expected.

[00:58:01]So, in my opinion, it should be resolved sometime between June and July. Gyulgyul asked, "Yes, you asked a question.

[00:58:14]It seems like interest rates are high right now, so what is the maximum level they could go up to?"

[00:58:20]As for interest rate levels, there are about three indicators we can check. In the case of the 10-year bond yield, it moves in a total of three ways.

[00:58:28]There is something called the real interest rate. You can simply view it as growth, and then there is something called expected inflation.

[00:58:34]Next, there is something called Premium. If we assume that the real interest rate level is currently around 1% and that the economy is healthy, we receive 2.5 to 3.0% in expected inflation. And recently, bond premiums have risen significantly. This has come up now, so you can receive about 0.6. I saw 8 from 0.6 to 0.8. Then, assuming the current economic recession is not the maximum possible level, the value real interest rate and expected inflation will range from 3.5% to 4.0%. If premium factors are applied, it ranges from 4.06% to 0.81%, so you can view the maximum potential increase as 4.6% to 4.8%. So, in my view, since it is at the 4.8% level, it has risen quite a bit to a sufficiently high interest rate in the current range. yes. So, the additional point where interest rates could be affected is not significant. From this perspective, I also have a point where I think a section where the control could come to a close might appear. yes.

[00:59:33]So, regarding interest rate factors, it might not be as sensitive as expected from now on, and there is also a possibility that it will move according to fundamentals. Well, it could even lead to a conversation like this. yes. Uh, as a last question, you mentioned the impact of a 3x launch at double the price. If it is launched at double the price and people buy more of it, as far as I know, a certain portion of it would require actually buying Samsung Electronics and Hynix stocks. So, I am aware that there are improvements in terms of supply and demand. yes. yes. But anyway, yes. So [laughs] a lot of good things are being released, but anyway, given the high interest rates, it seems like only those with consistent earnings will do well. So, we should focus well on that side. Also, I saw for the first time what Code mentioned earlier; I did n't know that a market where everything is concentrated on a single stock could exist even in a bottom-down bubble, but since that could happen now, I think it would be best for us to respond carefully until the war ends.

[01:00:34]I think we can wrap up the broadcast here for today.

[01:00:36]Thank you so much for visiting today, and I will see you again next week. That's all for today's broadcast. Thank you. yes. thank you