Why GAS PRICES Are About to Get WORSE...

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]The number on your gas pump this Memorial Day weekend was not just a price. It was a bill for a war that our government started and has not quite finished yet. I want to talk you through exactly what's happening in the oil market right now. What Wall Street is celebrating and the structural reality underneath the headline that the market has not quite priced in. By the end of this video, you're going to understand exactly why the Iran deal optimism flooding your financial news feed right now is the most dangerous kind of market optimism and what it means for your gas bill, your portfolio, and even the Fed's next move. Let me start at the pump because that is where the story actually begins. For most American families, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline this Memorial Day was $4.56 according to AAA. That is a $138 higher than the time this time last year. It's up more than 50% since the war with Iran began on February 28th. I almost never drive anymore. You guys know that.

[00:00:54]Thankfully, most of my market watching happens on a Bluebird terminal, not a gas pump. But I drove this weekend and I want to tell you the difference between watching crude oil prices tick on a screen and physically watching a $100 drain out of your wallet into a fuel tank, guys. Something else entirely.

[00:01:13]Just last January, the same car, same tank was about 40 bucks to fill. That is a $60 difference per fill up. Once a week, 52 weeks, that is nearly, guys, $3,000 a year. It's gone before you spend a single dollar on anything else that you might want to buy. Now, multiply that by 130 million American households that own a car, and you start to understand why the University of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 53.3.

[00:01:42]deep in recession territory even as the S&P 500 prints all-time highs above 7,400. We have some videos on that from last week. You should check them out.

[00:01:52]That $3,000 gas tax is not a round error, guys. It's real structural cost on real households. And almost nobody on Wall Street is talking about it that particular way. So, let me tell you what actually happened in the oil market this week. WTI Crew dropped more than 6% and Brent lost 7% in a single session. That was yesterday when the rest of the markets were closed and it was triggered by President Trump saying that the US and Iran are very close to a deal that would reopen straight over moves. The market celebrated immediately not surprisingly and crude fell. Gas futures also fell. Financial media though called it relief. Now here's what the proposed deal actually looks like because the headlines are doing a pretty poor job explaining it. The framework calls for a 60-day ceasefire extension. During that window, Iraq agrees to reopen the strait with no tolls and clear the mines that it deployed during the conflict. Now, that sounds pretty good. The United States will lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and allow Iran to sell oil freely again. Both sides then sit down for broader negotiations on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Guys, the uranium question doesn't get resolved in the deal. It gets negotiated inside the deal's window. Hopefully, that is a meaningful distinction there. And as of this morning, guys, nothing's really been signed. If you like this type of content, please click like and consider subscribing. It's really important to be in the know about this stuff. We hope that you'll do it with us every single day. Now, here's what I want to show you, the data that Wall Street is not leading with, because I've been covering the Hermoose story for months now. and what the crude futures market is doing right now tells me that traders are pricing a best case scenario without reading the fine print. The International Energy Agency, that's the IEA, confirmed that global observed oil inventories drew down 250 million barrels in March and April combined. 4 million barrels per day of inventory depletion for two straight months. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. You don't rebuild a 250 million barrel inventory deficit, guys, in 60 days. Physically impossible. Then there is Saudi Arabia. Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure during the conflict reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by roughly 600,000 barrels per day. The Manifa facility took damage equivalent to 300,000 barrels a day. The Koreas facility, another 300,000. And that's confirmed by Bloomberg and the Saudi energy ministry in April. These are not facilities that you just flip on with a diplomatic signature. The engineering timeline to restore full capacity is measured, guys, in months. Energy executives who actually operate in this market are on record. Full normalization of Middle East oil supply may not arrive until 2027, guys. And here's the shadow data point that I've not seen leading any mainstream financial coverage. You know, I love the shadow data. The strategic petroleum reserve sits at 374 million barrels as of midmay. That's down from roughly 409 million barrels in early April. The IEA coordinated collective release of 400 million barrels from member nations. Strategic reserves beginning in March. You might remember that. That was big in the headlines back then. The emergency ammunition that helped contain prices earlier in the conflict has less powder in it now than it did then. We borrowed from tomorrow to pay for today. And tomorrow, my friends, is getting closer. And it's getting closer fast. Now, here's a question that keeps me focused. If the deal is signed next week, then the straight reopens on schedule, what exactly reopens? Well, the waterway clears, but the inventory is not rebuilt. The SA production capacity is not restored, and there's a 4 to 6 week refinery lag before you see any crude price move at your pump. Guys, four to six week lag minimum. That's once you see prices go down. Even perfect deal execution doesn't reach your gas station until mid July at the earliest. The market's celebrating the opening of a door into a room that still needs months, guys, of reconstruction. So, let me give you three things you should actually be watching because these are the numbers that matter for your financial life, not the crude futures tape. Your gas bill. If the deal holds, and I want to stress those words, if it holds, you're looking at a gradual drip down to the high 30s in most optimistic scenario by late July. The Gas Buddy summer forecast of $4.80 as the average between now and Labor Day starts to look too high that the deal closes on time.

[00:06:33]That is real relief. That matters. But these talks have collapsed before multiple times and similar signals of progress and each time they collapsed.

[00:06:43]The inventory cushion was thinner than it was this time. So your portfolio, you got to watch that. The market has front run a deal that has not been side yet, guys, on top of a supply picture that argues for tighter markets, not looser ones. Talks break down from here. You don't get a reversal to where prices started. you get a move to somewhere materially worse because the inventory situation has deteriorated and the SPR has less capacity to buffer the shock.

[00:07:12]The downside is asymmetric. Traders are pricing the upside. You are pricing the downside right now. You really need to focus on that. And now number three, the Fed's Kevin Walsh has was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair this past week. I think it was last Friday. He inherited a central bank paralyzed by energydriven inflation all year. Three offc members hinted at their last meeting that their next move could be easily be a rate hike as a rate cut. A genuine crude price roll back removes one of the most stubborn inputs from the PCE inflation calculation. We're going to get that later this week, so pay attention to that. And gives war some cover to think about rate relief. That would be pretty good, but only partial cover. Shelter is still elevated guys in the PCE. We have to watch for that. Service and services inflation uh has nothing to do with Hormuz and that is higher as well.

[00:08:07]Tariff driven goods prices are completely separate story we haven't even talked about yet. Middle East deal doesn't solve Bor's problem. It removes maybe one log from the fire that's still burning on three other fronts right now.

[00:08:21]If I could only have filled my wife's tank halfway this weekend on the theory that by next week prices might be lower.

[00:08:28]I did because I know better than to bet on a household expense on a deal that has not even been signed yet in a market where the cost of being wrong is measured in dollars per gallon. So your truth bomb for today is this. The market is pricing a deal that hasn't been signed on top of a supply picture that can't be repaired in 60 days. And when optimism is your only position in a market this thin on inventory, the cost of being wrong lends directly on the family at the pump. So sorry. Join me every day for Wall Street Truth Bombs, where I drop them right here before the market figures them out. The headlines move the markets, but the real story is in the shadow data. That's why every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. Wall Street time, we go live with the radar report. We break down what's actually driving the markets. inflation, Fed policy, oil, housing, credit risks, liquidity, and the biggest macro stories Wall Street is watching right now as we speak. No spin, no narratives, no politics, just policy, just real analysis designed to help you understand the risks, the opportunities, and what could happen next. I'm Mark Malik, founder of Truth Bombs, and this is where we connect the dots before the rest of the market even catches on. Join us live every Thursday at 4:30 p.m.