Inside The Data: How MASSIVE Will Jalen Carter's Next Contract Be?

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:09]Welcome to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds. I'm Jeff Moher. And of course, when we're talking inside the data, we are talking Sam Finkele, our data and analytics expert. And we've got a great uh two-part podcast series lined up. And Sam, I say it's great because we're going to it's a little bit of a blast from the past. When you first started doing shows with us, one of your specialties was uh doing predictive outcomes of free agent contracts for not just the Eagles, but the NFL. And lately, we just haven't really had time to take a deep breath, get away from the X's and O's, and really talk about contracts, which is your specialty. And now is a good time of the year to look at contracts. Um, we're not doing what we do on Inside the Birds, which is go through, we do contract shows, Sam, I'm sure you've heard them, where we kind of say, "What does this contract currently mean for so- and so's future with the Eagles?" That's something that I do.

[00:01:00]What we do is look at some some guys who could be up for extension soon, what that might mean for them, what the market will dictate. Uh, and certainly that's been relevant for the Eagles, right? I mean, look at Jaylen Phillips and Milton Williams in the last two years. They got huge contracts on the free agent market. Um, so we'll start with defense, right? I think of a guy like Moro Jomo who we'll talk about who I'm sure the Eagles would love to extend, but I'm sure his agent is saying, "Hey, you you just had a really good year last year. You're going to have one more really good year on this awesome defense." And then you too could go be like Milton Williams or Jaylen Phillips next year in free agency if you stay healthy and you have um a really productive season. So, uh, I'm going to let you take it from here as far as I know that we've when we talked, you have changed a little bit on how you do your predictive algorithm to determine contract extensions and contracts.

[00:01:54]>> Yeah, absolutely. I made a couple changes um, for a bunch of reasons which we'll get into. Um but yeah, the the new model uh I feel a lot more confident in predominantly because originally what what I was doing was I was adjusting for cap inflation manually. So I I was looking at how the salary cap has grown each year over year including that COVID year where it went down and taking the average and adjusting that way.

[00:02:23]What I have determined is that may not be the best estimate just because cap is growing at it's not you can't really average that out. It's hard to capture that value. And so what I thought was the better way to do that is look at percentage of cap at signing.

[00:02:40]>> And the reason why that's better is because the percentage remains constant and regardless of how the cap inflates, they generally slot in around that percentage. So you you take the percent of cap at signing, which again, you look at the comps and see where it slides in uh and where where that player relates based on their statistics. Um and you know, could they grow or was it like an anomaly? There there's certain factors that you look into and we'll get into each of those factors. And then you take that number and then you take the cap, multiply them, and then that's how you get the actual dollar figure. And I think that this methodology is better >> because it'll account for the cap inflation that I tried really hard to correct for, which is really hard to predict and made it almost a non-variable because it already accounts for it itself.

[00:03:31]>> Right. Right. Okay. So that that's a good adjustment and you expect that to lean toward more accuracy. I always feel like a little bit of empathy for people like yourself who do this and the over-the-c folks and stuff like that because, you know, every free agent period when we go through free agency uh and preview it, Adam and I, I always say the the teams you really have to watch out for are the teams that have rookie quarterbacks but are doing fairly well, decently, like they want to start contending because they have so much more money to throw around than teams that have a quarterback making top market money, which is now about 10, 11, 12 teams that have 50 million a year quarterbacks, right? You have like your halves and have nots. Absolutely. And so >> like Bryce Young, Panthers on a rookie deal, so they can >> $30 million for Jaylen Phillips two years ago. Drake May, they liked what they saw. They knew that they had what they they're a guy. So they throw what was it? $26 million at at Milton Williams. you know, the Broncos had done it and every, you know, Cam Ward, I mean, they went >> the Titans threw 17 million a year at Wale Robinson, which is like, you know, and I'm not trying to be disrespectful to Wel Robinson. It's just illustrating my point that I feel like this is one of the most difficult jobs to do projecting caps when you just don't know the volatility and the pressure that some teams face when they have these quarterbacks under rookie deals to just go out and get top tier talent at all costs.

[00:04:59]>> Absolutely. And I think that a lot of that can be addressed by using this new method. But again, I mean, it's not a perfect method. There's still going to be teams that will put a higher percentage of their salary cap, you know, allocate it towards these nonpremium or even premium positions with especially when they have they don't have the constraint of a quarterback contract. I think that's a really good way to describe it and I think that's very accurate.

[00:05:24]>> Right. So, what I asked you to do with knowing on the Eagles, you know, who will either be up for an extension at this time next year because they're on their rookie deal and it'll be three years through, right? Or players that might have a new role, an expanded role.

[00:05:42]You know, I'm I'm sort of trying to be uh cute here, but I'll get like when we do offense, we're going to talk about Herz and Devonte Smith. They're not per se up for extensions, but new role for Dvonte as wide receiver one and of course Jaylen Herd's last year of guaranteed money. Those two guys will be considered for extensions at this time next year if not sooner. So we'll get into that on that episode. For defense, what we're going to do this one, these are more the conventional you're you're you know it's time for you you're on your rookie deal. We're going to talk about Jaylen Carter. We're going to talk about Mororrow Amo. And we're going to talk about JLX Hunt because they're all either already right now due for an extension or will be at this time next year. And we want to look at how the Eagles are going to make this work with them. We honestly I defense was tough because I could have thrown Cooper to Gene and Queen Mitchell in there and then we would have done like 30 guys. Um maybe we'll continue to do this part three and part four, but I wanted to focus on the front seven because that's where the Eagles have a lot of money invested.

[00:06:41]>> Yeah, absolutely. and uh definitely can do this experiment for a bunch of different positions, a bunch of different players, >> right?

[00:06:48]>> But I I just I I think you're right.

[00:06:50]These are the ones you should prioritize at least right now.

[00:06:52]>> All right. So, when we get into those three, before I kind of share the screen and show the crafts, I I want you to go through uh more of your methodology. You just talked about some of it, but the three bullet points that you wanted to bring bring to light here.

[00:07:06]>> Yeah. So, I think the first thing that we have to qualify is that the 2027 salary cap has not been set by the NFL yet. I mean, there's no way it could be at this point. So, it's dealing with a projection, right? Um, and there are going to be errors in that projection because nobody can accurately project that. I will say that over the cap and spotrack are both very close in their projection. Uh, over the cap is at 327 million. Spotra is at 323 million. Um, and so I I went with Over the Cap just because I I typically like their content as a little bit better. Uh, no shade at Spot, but I >> Yes. No, I agree with you. Go over the cap is a little bit for my liking more a little more accurate on the contracts.

[00:07:53]Yeah. And the salary cap.

[00:07:55]>> But that being said, I mean, they're not that far off. Right. So I think an important caveat is once that contract once that uh salary cap is set uh the contracts may vary because again it's based on a percentage of salary cap at signing. So I think it's really important to understand that the projections could go up or down depending on where the NFL salary cap is stand is actually set, >> right?

[00:08:18]>> Um so that's a variable that is out of our control and it's just something to acknowledge and it may change the actual analysis or you know determination in the future. So I think that's a really important thing to say.

[00:08:31]>> Got it.

[00:08:32]>> Um and again that's the estimate we used. Um, and then another thing is that factor in relevant statistics, age when signed, market scarcity, and comparable salaries in the market. That's typically the methodology uh that is used. And yeah, that's kind of where we'll start.

[00:08:49]>> All right. Real quick, two questions off off what you said though. Um, when we're talking about projecting a salary cap, when does the new TV deal kick in?

[00:09:00]Because that always >> 2029.

[00:09:03]>> Okay. So this is going to be all right.

[00:09:05]So that's always something to factor in because I know agents want to either push for the whatever deal they sign to expire before that year so that they can reset, right? Or make sure that there's a huge jump in in money that year to account for that. So but we're still a couple years away. And then the second thing I'm just it's a point I'm going to bring up. I assume that over the cap and spot rack and and sites that do this, they calculate the next year's salary cap based on what the jumps have looked like from year to year to year to year. Correct.

[00:09:38]And then they try to project. I do wonder if the number higher number this year of international games that the NFL is about to play will make that number actually even higher than projected because I think that they're taking a I think they're playing way more international games this year than they did last year. So I know that there's cost to the NFL that there's also some huge merchandising and sales and all that benefits that that's why they're doing it.

[00:10:06]>> Absolutely. Yeah. I I think you're probably correct on that for sure.

[00:10:11]>> All right. So So we'll work off 327 million. Could be could it probably not going to be less, could be more.

[00:10:17]>> Yeah, that's that's the assumption I would go under for sure.

[00:10:20]>> All right, cool. So let's start with um a name everybody's really been wondering about. We're going to we're going to start with Jaylen Carter because he has had his fifth year option picked up and he is he could sign a contract right now. That's he's through his third year.

[00:10:39]Uh he is in the same boat as Mororrow Aomo. The only one that we're going to talk about who couldn't sign one right now would be JX Hunt because he would not be available until next year. So when we talk about Jaylen Carter, we literally could get an extension tomorrow.

[00:10:53]>> Yeah, that's very true.

[00:10:55]>> That's why we're trying to do this now and really uh get into it. So first thing you did was look at statistics.

[00:11:00]Why is that? uh because I think that is one of the biggest determinations as to what your salary is because what you produce and again I think interior defensive line's a weird one predominantly because it won't show up in statistics every time. I mean, particularly with Jaylen Carter, I mean, your impact is you're getting double teamed, you're opening up, you know, lanes for your teammates and and I think it's really hard to figure out the value just based on statistics, particularly for this position. And again, once we do the offensive side for for a guard or really any offensive line, it's hard to 100% determine your value based on purely statistics, >> right?

[00:11:42]>> Um, look at these. Go. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

[00:11:45]>> No, no. I was just going I do think it's important. That's the only thing I was going to say.

[00:11:48]>> Sure. And and every almost every power agent I know actually has in their agency a person who is in charge of compiling not just statistics like um some of the ones I mean like really advanced data. I mean anything that could support their client's uh case, you know, like underlying metrics, everything. I mean books. They come in with books of stats and data uh to try to get the most amount of money for their client. But the one thing that's interesting about Jaylen Carter, and I am, let me be absolutely unequivocal about this. Jaylen Carter is not Derek Barnett. However, the it's, if you remember, Derek Barnett had a really good rookie year when the Eagles drafted him in 2017 and then sort of regressed as it went on. Uh, Jaylen Carter's numbers, stats, overlying metrics say a little bit of regression, but we also know he was dealing with shoulder injuries, but that's part of it.

[00:12:43]>> Yeah, definitely. I mean they all they do say the best ability is availability and that there is some you know validity to that.

[00:12:50]>> Um but to the same degree someone of Jaylen Carter's caliber doesn't really happen very often and correct >> again you cannot specifically for him you cannot >> quantify basically his value just based on statistics and I think that's a really important point that I would say >> there you go and that's a lot for defensive tackles especially you see that too. So, the Eagles picked up his fifth year option, which is uh I think around $27 million, Sam, for 2027, >> which means it's guaranteed. So, that means any conversation about a contract extension begins at at least $27 million full. I mean, and that's that's honestly the low baseline, but you can't you wouldn't you'd have to fire your agent if you somehow signed a contract that was going to guarantee you less money than what you're already guaranteed on the on the fifth year option. 100% 100% agreed with you completely.

[00:13:46]>> All right. So, let's you just you listed here the interior defensive line market as a reasons of what comparison.

[00:13:53]>> Yeah. I because I think ultimately what you what an agent does what the team does is they'll look at the market and the comps. And I think this just getting an inside this process is very helpful for our listeners and our viewers. So, I I kind of wanted to show it.

[00:14:07]>> And you say where would Jaylen Carter fit? And I think the best way to do that again is the percent of cap because it makes all else equal. You can't really look at the numbers of the salary because it it really just matters from a a standpoint a snapshot, right? And I think the best way to capture that snapshot again is that percent of cap because it it takes out the actual numbers and it says this is what a team allocated >> for this player based on the percentage of salary cap. And I think that's the best way to look at it.

[00:14:39]>> Sure. Um, and it it takes the years out of it because again the salary cap jumps significantly each year. So it kind of makes all else equal at the end of the day. Um, and so what they'll do is they'll look at the player and they'll say based on their statistics and based on their value, where do they fit on this?

[00:14:57]>> Got it.

[00:14:58]>> So of this Go ahead.

[00:14:59]>> No, no, go ahead.

[00:15:00]>> I was just going to say this is a pretty diverse list. Uh you have a couple of guys I think that become the um the non-comparison like a Chris Jones who's 30 years old on his like fourth contract. Right.

[00:15:11]>> Sure.

[00:15:11]>> Uh so naturally when you see that happen like with Brandon Graham these guys get paid really well for on one-year deals and it winds up being like a a larger percentage of the cap. So not necessarily as um relative to what we're dealing with Jaylen Carter. And probably the same thing you would say with DeForest Buckner who's 30 years old and uh Dexter Lawrence who's already like a couple years into his second contract.

[00:15:35]>> Sure.

[00:15:36]>> Okay. But everybody else relevant data points though I would say.

[00:15:40]>> Say that again.

[00:15:41]>> I do think they're re relevant data points.

[00:15:43]>> Right. And by the way, these were the age when they sign I don't want to make it sound like this is how old they are right now. This is the age of the contract that they when they signed it.

[00:15:51]>> Correct.

[00:15:52]>> Okay. Uh so your your deductive reasoning then would lead you to believe about what about Jaylen Carter?

[00:16:01]>> Yeah, I think based on the market and based on his statistics and based on the potential growth upside um of him as a player and development, uh I do think he if he has a, you know, a not great season by his accounts, I could see him slot under that Chris Jones salary cap at at 11 and a half. I I think that's what the numbers may suggest.

[00:16:25]>> Um, but I also could see him blowing it out of the water. I don't think by that much, but I do think it would be between I think a fair range would be about 11.5% to 13%. And again, that would translate to based on our estimate and based on our the variable of that we're we're assuming the assumption we're of 327 million that would be 37.6 to 42.5 million a year. So what would lead you to believe that he Jaylen Carter would command a a little or I don't want to say significant but a higher percentage of the cap than someone like Jeffrey Simmons at the time that he signed or Quinnon Williams at the s time he signed.

[00:17:06]>> Yeah. I mean again those are pretty good you know reference points. Um, but I I think that there are are significant arguments for Carter being, you know, more covet more more valuable or or coveted higher than those players at the time.

[00:17:22]>> Um, and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that again, Carter has just >> allowed his teammates to succeed at at a level and and honestly he's a um I don't want I don't want to say victim, he he is a benefactor of his circumstance. I think that his defense is better than both Quinnon Williams and Jeffrey Simmons defenses.

[00:17:44]>> Um, and I think that what they'll use is other statistics on like how he how his teammates do around him. And I think that because of this Fangio defense and all the people around him um there is value um in Carter basically because of everyone around him because of the scheme and I think that >> I I tried to a lot of these analyses I tried to do an upside analysis. Um, I try to create the floor, too, which is why I slotted it under Chris Jones, but I I did a lot of assumptions that he is going to continue to have a good season or or do really well in the next year.

[00:18:24]>> Got it. Um, if you were his agent, you'd probably push for a deal to get done before the start of this season and probably for three years, right? because that would mean you get 2026, 27, and 28 and then free agency 2029 when you said the TV money kicks in, >> right?

[00:18:45]>> Yeah, 100%.

[00:18:46]>> For the Eagles, you're probably going to push for a five-year deal, but the Eagles have given out a lot of three-year deals themselves. So, they they want cap maneuverability as well.

[00:18:54]And honestly, with Carter's injury history, um somewhat of his off-field stuff, he's been all right, but there's been a little bit um maybe it's probably safe on both sides then to revisit it after the third after the TV money kicks in.

[00:19:07]>> Absolutely. I I think those are really good points. Um what do you think about this projection?

[00:19:12]>> Uh I think it makes sense. I think comparatively to Quinnon Williams and Jeffrey Simmons, he's played on a winning team that's won a Super Bowl.

[00:19:19]He's been a big part of it. Uh the Eagles typically I think your your graph here illustrates how the Eagles feel about the position because Jordan Davis is on this list at 8.6% of the cap and he's coming off one like really awesome.

[00:19:36]He hasn't had a great career. He's had a really good last year. Um and even then I'm not sure you put him up in the same list of the as as some of the guys here.

[00:19:46]So that's the Eagles though. They will they cover the position. um they want to keep their guys and they want they they will spend big on on those kind of guys.

[00:19:54]>> Yeah, absolutely.

[00:19:55]>> I'd probably go closer to your 11.5 than 13%.

[00:20:00]Um so probably closer to the 37.6 and the 425, but again that's still make going to make him the highest paid DT in uh in the league if he signs that.

[00:20:09]>> Yeah.

[00:20:10]>> All right. Good stuff. Speaking of DTS, we'll go on to Mororrow Amo.

[00:20:17]>> Absolutely. And talk about someone whose role has grown and has you know actually done the opposite gone from we looked at Carter who some sort of regressed statistically omo did not he he actually you know progressed.

[00:20:32]>> Right. Right. You know how we always say like training camp doesn't matter and you know last year is a perfect example because at the Philly voice me Jimmy Kempky and some of the writers we go to every training camp practice and each day we pick who we think is a star. uh of the of the three stars. We picked three stars of training camp and at the end Jimmy tabulates who are who got the most stars, right? Well, last training camp, the offensive player with the most stars was Jan Dodson. Had a great camp, didn't really translate to a great season. The defensive player with the most stars was Moro Jomo and it absolutely translated into a breakout year. I mean, the guy went from no career sacks in two years to just six alone last year. His sack percentage obviously way up. his pressure is way up. Um, and a good pressure percentage.

[00:21:20]>> Yeah, absolutely. And I actually I I almost feel bad that I didn't mention this, but >> with Jaylen Carter, his uh pressure percentage at 12.3 is also for his first year was crazy.

[00:21:33]>> Yeah, that's right. 12. Yeah, there it is. 123.

[00:21:37]>> I think that's worth mentioning, especially when we're looking at Ojo. Uh because that 9.1% for JMO on his best year was pretty good too, >> right?

[00:21:47]>> Um >> you'll notice though both of them had their highest when they were more rotate much fewer snap. Obviously the more you play that that number is going to come down a little bit.

[00:21:57]>> Absolutely. I think that's worth discussing for sure.

[00:22:01]>> Absolutely. All right. So we go back to what the interior Dline market looks like with some uh added So you added some names on this list. Yes. Uh I took the top end and kind of condensed it a little bit just because again we have to look relative to where they are. I don't think Moro is going to reset the ideal market. I think Carter will.

[00:22:25]>> So I think just looking comparably where they are. And by the way, this actually made me feel a lot better about Jordan Davis's contract >> doing this analysis because I I think >> he actually does slot. I I do think he got paid more than he probably could have or should have.

[00:22:41]>> Yeah, but he slots in pretty well with the rest of these names. I'm I'm pretty comfortable, especially >> Yeah, I'm I'm sure that this involved a little bit more of projection that he was going to continue to to trend upward and not just be what he was last year, right?

[00:22:55]>> Sure.

[00:22:56]>> Um I mean, Bar is a pretty dominant player when he's healthy. Leonard Williams just won a Super Bowl. He's he's always been a really good interior pass rusher. Probably a little more so um yeah, definitely more so than than Jordan Davis.

[00:23:08]>> Sure.

[00:23:09]>> Uh Kenny Clark, I guess the contra I mean earlier in the contract I loved Kenny Clark like three to four years ago. I signed it in 2024. Um he's sort of regressed a little bit as he's gotten older. But yeah, but hey, I mean right now the 49ers are stealing Odigua. He's a good player. 7.2% of the cap.

[00:23:28]>> Exactly. And you know what's crazy is Originally when I was doing that analysis when the Gizua signed I thought it was a ridiculous contract just based on the number but again it's the percent of cap that matters and that's that's kind of when my line of thinking started particularly with the Milton Williams 2 when I was pretty my projection was a lot lower but I wasn't the only one who projected them lower but I I think that this analysis is better and I I hope it proves to be I I don't hope I know it's going would prove to be more accurate.

[00:24:01]So, >> all right. So, so then I guess the conclusion I would draw is if if you what this tells you is that Moroja is likely to command between 8 and 9% of the cap. Even if it's 7 and a half to 9% of the cap, we're looking at like 23 to $30 million APY. And I just don't see how the Eagles can be able to afford him, Jordan Davis, and the number that we discussed with Jaylen Carter. Right.

[00:24:29]I know that Eagles would love to have Moro Jomo wrapped up. Uh they've talked, but this situation again I I think that you know JMO's agents probably telling them look look what could be out there for you like it was for Milton Williams and and Jaylen Phillips if you just continue to you know do what you've been doing for the last few years.

[00:24:49]>> Yeah. And and I mean interestingly to your point uh we talked about Milton Williams got 26 million, right? And and I think you have to naturally compare Milton Williams and Moro Jomo, but if you look at it, that was 9.3% at the time of signing. Uh I don't think Moro is going to get that 9.3. Yet his num his salary cap number or his salary number for APY is actually going to be higher than Milton Williams contract.

[00:25:16]But again, overall cap, right?

[00:25:18]>> Exactly.

[00:25:18]>> Right.

[00:25:19]>> And I think that's Yeah. Yeah. That No, that that's that's really interesting.

[00:25:23]Um, man, this is a tough one for Howie.

[00:25:26]I know he would love to have Moro Jomo extended and have that those three guys, but it's really difficult. If the if these projections are going to come to fruition, that would be really difficult.

[00:25:35]>> Agreed.

[00:25:36]>> Well, looks like another year of a third round uh of the third round compensatory pick for the Eagles. He'll take it.

[00:25:43]>> Yeah, 100%.

[00:25:45]>> All right, good stuff. All right, we'll finish off with JX Hunt, uh, edge rusher, who last year, Sam, you may recall, set a franchise record by leading the defense in both sacks and interceptions.

[00:26:00]>> Yes. I'm not sure if that's like first of all, it's a great stat for him. Not sure that's you know obviously the secondary I'd be you know how the like the competitions are in teams like if I'm a corner on the team if I'm Quan Mitchell or Cooper Dean or Rick Woolen I'm telling Chelix Hunt this year there's no way no way we're letting him do that again.

[00:26:19]>> No and I and I don't think I think if you record all the history of the Philadelphia Eagles I don't think that's happened very often.

[00:26:28]>> Uh no no like I said he was the first in history to have the most interceptions and sacks. So yeah, but yeah, to your point, it's probably the first time a front seven guy has led the team in interceptions.

[00:26:38]>> That's what I meant for sure.

[00:26:40]>> Or an edge guy.

[00:26:41]>> Yeah.

[00:26:42]>> Uh as we see here, he exploded from one and a half sacks to six and a half. Uh 2% sack rate. Man, look at those pressures from 9 to 57. So I just want everybody to understand the math here.

[00:26:55]He played about three times as many snaps from his rookie year, his second year, but he had about six to seven times as many pressures and his and he more than doubled his uh it's about a 30% increase, right? In in uh No, no, hold on.

[00:27:12]>> Uh 300% increase in quarterback percentage. I'm bad at math, Sam.

[00:27:16]>> You're talking about for the just the pressures?

[00:27:18]>> Yeah, pressure percentage.

[00:27:20]>> Yeah.

[00:27:21]>> 7.4 to 17.3.

[00:27:23]Yeah, it's he what he like 5xed it. So >> yeah. So really good. We'll just say it was amazing what he did.

[00:27:32]>> Yeah.

[00:27:33]>> All right. So let's look at the the edge market and and try to comp here. And >> good of you to point out that Grenard is already occupying 8.1% of the cap on his extension.

[00:27:44]>> Yeah. And I also think eyes will naturally wander to the Jaylen Phillips, which is why I didn't cut him off here >> where he got 10%. Um I I also we >> I think he got overpaid personally, but again it's because the contract thing.

[00:27:59]>> Yeah, it is it is now definitively a comp and a precedent that is referred to in the salary.

[00:28:07]>> Um I do think you know that seven if he can maintain that 17% quarterback pressure rate that is elite. That is definitively elite. And the problem is edge like quarterback is one of the most like it is it is one of the highest paid positions in football and it's probably a little bit overpaid in a lot of ways >> and that helps these players that do well. Um, and so also I I think it's worth mentioning first before we even go into this that even though Will Anderson >> got paid the highest as an edge player, Micah Parson's contract is still the highest as percent of cap.

[00:28:48]>> Right. Good point.

[00:28:50]>> Um, despite being a little bit lower because it was a year prior. And I I just think that that it's only.1% more.

[00:28:57]But I think that goes to show you that, you know, a lot of these times these agents are like, "We got a record setting contract." And yet like it's not unprecedented.

[00:29:07]>> Right. Right. So th this this is probably the most difficult projection of all of your three guys because of how young and how much upside that Hunt has. Would No, I don't think anybody would be surprised if Jix Hunt had 12 and a half sacks this season, like 35 quarterback. It's something that pushed him into that 10% of the cap or higher category. But I also don't think anybody would be shocked if he fell more into the 8 to 10 sack like the OA Caroffisk kind of category which is you know seven and a half to eight and a half%. So like his money could be anywhere, man.

[00:29:47]>> It could. And I I tried to, you know, project higher upside more than downside, but >> right, >> it's kind it is it's really hard to do.

[00:29:56]Um, and so I I felt comfortable with that 7 and a half to 9%. I went back and forth on the numbers and I >> I think it was really I I really paid attention to that one especially compared to your other two and I thought that one was probably the they're all fair but that one really because of the difficulty in trying to project it was like kind of on the money.

[00:30:17]>> I appreciate that. And so I think that puts him anywhere from 24.5 to 29.4 million a year.

[00:30:23]>> Right. Right. So, and that's that's interesting with Grenard currently occupying 8.1% of the cap. And then so that throws sort of a curveball into the future of um Nolan Smith who's on his who's also had his fifth year picked up.

[00:30:41]So, that one is not as expensive as Jaylen Carter's obviously. I for I think it's like only like 13 12 or 13 million >> if I'm not mistaken. So, it's it's 13.7 million for um for Nolan Smith. So, you know, if they wind up giving or if he winds up earning Hunt a a 7.5 to 9% of the cap type of contract, then it's I think it's going to be really difficult for them to retain. They may just ride it out again with uh Nolan Smith, let him leave in free agency, get a huge uh compensatory pick, or maybe he becomes trade bait. Yeah, totally could see that. Totally could see that.

[00:31:21]>> Would you say it would be very difficult to envision contract extensions for both Hunt and Nolan Smith with Grenard already occupying 8.1%.

[00:31:30]>> Correct. Yeah. There's not a world where that happens, especially considering all the other contracts that are coming up in the next couple years.

[00:31:38]>> Right. I mean, we just talked about the Carter one, the Ajomo one. We did not have we haven't discussed about the one that Quinan Mitchell Cooper to Gene I mean that you just can't pay everybody and when you're as deep as they are at edge right now uh someone something's got to give you know >> 100% 100% agreed.

[00:31:57]>> Good stuff my friend. By the way, if you're thinking about hitting any away games this season, check out Eagles fan travel. They put together full weekend experiences for Eagles fans. That's flights, hotels, game tickets, tailgates, exclusive events, even appearances from former players. It's honestly one of the coolest ways to experience an away game. Head to philadelphia eagles.com/travel to secure your spot. Hey, Philly fans, game day is stressful enough. Parking, traffic, long lines. We've all been there. But when it comes to your cannabis, Camden Apothecary makes it easy. This is the dispensary for sports fans. Just minutes outside of Philly, with plenty of free parking, you'll be in and out fast. No hassle, no waiting, and they don't just care about convenience. Camden Apothecary is all about the guest experience. Their staff makes sure you feel taken care of every time you walk in. Plus, they carry only the best quality cannabis at the fairest prices. So whether you're stocking up for the tailgate, the watch party, or celebrating a big win, you know you're getting the good stuff without overpaying. They even show love to the community with specials for fans, students, service members, and healthc care pros. Camden Apothecary, top quality cannabis, great prices, and an experience made for Philly fans 21 and up. That is it for the three defensive players. I hope everybody feels a little more educated on what we're looking at.

[00:33:28]A lot of money and after going through this, I think I think it's almost impossible for them to retain a JOMO u unless he's willing to agree to a team friendly deal. I should throw that caveat out there. Uh Carter, I see that happening, but we we kind of have to see how this year goes, right, with with the show. Look, I think that they will try to get it done before the season starts because it makes sense to.

[00:33:53]Um, but we'll see. And then Jix Hunt is not eligible until next year. So, he's got the most really. He's got the most on the line.

[00:34:02]>> Yeah, totally agreed. Totally agreed.

[00:34:05]>> I think if a JO just has the exact repeat of last year with the same cast around him, he's going to get paid pretty well on free agency. Maybe not maybe not the third the 26 million Mil Williams made, but around that based on the projections just, you know, get six sacks, get a bunch of pressures, get a high win rate. He's not as good of a run defender, so maybe that'll hurt him a little bit, but he's those long arms and those passing lanes, man.

[00:34:32]>> I almost guarantee he's going to get more than that 26 million. And again, that's >> Yeah, but I think that's reflected if if he goes on the open market. Again, that that's if he goes on the open market.

[00:34:43]But again, that's just because the salary caps in increased so much. I I just almost it's almost a foregone conclusion in my head, barring any catastrophic, you know, season ending injury, not god forbid, or anything like that. Um I I would almost guarantee he'll be over that 26 million, >> which actually makes me think as we close it off here, Sam, like what would even a team friendly deal look like?

[00:35:08]Like is that 22 million? Still, I don't know if affordable on the Eagles part with Davis and Carter and everybody else.

[00:35:15]>> Yeah, I think a team friendly deal would be that around that $22 million for sure.

[00:35:20]>> Still not sure that they can make that happen unless it's a two-year deal, something like that.

[00:35:23]>> I totally agree, but I think it's worth pointing out for sure.

[00:35:26]>> Yeah, great stuff, Sam. Really, really good stuff. Looking forward to our next episode when we do this for some of the guys on offense that we mentioned.

[00:35:34]>> That's going to do it for this episode of Inside the Data for Sam Finkele. I'm Jeff Moer and again you've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.