In constitutional impeachment trials, the presiding officer must be a qualified lawyer, and the trial's outcome depends on evidence presentation and senatorial voting, with the process serving as a critical mechanism for democratic accountability and rule of law.
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“JOEL, CHIZ, SARA DUTERTE TRIAL”: Justice Carpio Analysis
Added:Ronald Trump.
All right. [snorts] Just gonna put this live here.
Okay.
All right.
Okay.
Justice. I'm about to begin. We're good.
5 4 3 2 1.
>> Welcome back everyone. This is the latest episode deep. of course retired associate justice Antonio vice president we're moving towards the exciting part just to be clear this is just an alumni thing in Oxford I just had to take a picture so thank you again justice Scorpio for your patience and and and your commitment series of analysis about the upcoming trial of the century in many ways justice nitty-g gritties what could be the trial and mechanics and all. May I ask if you think it's unfair that [snorts] Jesus Cado is considered now a Bayani but not Joel Villaina because as we correctly predicted last week Joel was going to defect right and good luck the shortest living Senate President so justice shortly as the potential overseer of the about Joelani, what's going on? But he got the deputy Senate majority leadership, which is an interesting turn of events.
>> Well, uh, in the case of Chis, uh, there are talks that he he will be the presiding officer. Uh so today uh Is Bayan and all many other organizations came out with a uh joint statement opposing the selection of Chis to be the presiding officer because first of all he was the author of that fourth tweet uh uh the fourth tweet controversy where is fourth tweed uh means uh uh whenever you want it. [laughter] So that's it. So I hope they will not choose him. Uh maybe Kiko Pangan would be uh ideal.
So just just to be clearer formally and I would say normatively presiding officer trial obviously law lawyer by training right what are we looking at here? preferably a lawyer. Uh and uh that's the case of uh of uh Kiko Pangan and uh Chis, they're both lawyers. Uh but then uh because of the fiasco of this fort with uh that's why the first impeachment was delayed uh under Chiscudero. He sent back the uh the impeachment complaint to the house and uh it delayed everything. So uh these organizations came out with a statement but uh they should choose someone else.
So potentially lawyers senate well I mean actually I'm thinking about luminaries there in the senateum lawyer but would kiko be a problem that is more identified with the let's say anti-duter factions or or or or persuasion.
>> Well, uh I I think most of them have uh identified themselves with one faction or another. So, and we're there are a few lawyers there uh uh and uh he's the least controversial uh when it comes to this uh impeachment case. No, you have Cayano. He's a lawyer, but obviously he cannot be chosen anymore. and uh Chase also because he was the presiding officer when the first impeachment complaint was filed.
So uh has never been the uh presiding officer in this uh particular impeachment. So I think uh no no baggage You mean presiding over disaster officer? Um because I mean the fourth last year but just as going back to this um Supreme Court standing is there any way that other branches could be involved in this uh because of course Congress will be in the prosecution, Senate will be the venue. Can they get help from the Supreme Court? Supreme Court justices or chief justice preside? Uh no unfortunately that's uh written in the constitution. Uh when the president is the one uh being impeached then it will be the chief justice otherwise uh the senate will choose among themselves. No, normally it's the Senate President, but the Senate President now is not a lawyer. And it's probably, of course, it's uh common sense to choose a lawyer if there is one who's acceptable to everybody.
Um, of course you correlary question justice is should we worry that the fact that cheese is now being considered as a presiding officer again in spite of everything the president has also implied that he's kind of okay with the idea uh I mean you can see where the question is going and now Joel is now even the deputy senate majority leader should that make us worry about anticipate accountability measures I'm just putting it very diplomatic ically because I think not long ago everyone was expecting inevitable for their alleged involvement in anomalous flood control or infrastructure or budget issues. Not to mention financing financing problematic.
Well, uh we cannot uh uh we cannot uh avoid suspecting that there are some trades offs here, some uh uh bargaining.
Uh but uh hopefully that uh uh that will not impinge on the fairness and the uh and the uh expeditious uh resolution of the impeachment. No. So, uh very disturbing, but uh I think uh we'll just have to uh pri uh prioritize uh the most important things and the most important thing is to uh com uh to uh resolve this impeachment uh uh to the satisfaction of the public. No.
>> So, I mean like How is this [laughter] like like okay for now like what are we looking at here justice very selective justice if is held accountable for indeed any proven uh violation of the constitution and her mandate they play the partit lesser evil like what are we looking at I'm sorry. Just I have to spell this out. But because of all people if Ronald is scared to make a comment or comment, then I'm beginning to wonder what on earth is going on.
Well, uh we will know uh in a few weeks because the um man said that he will file the plunder case against Joel Villainva and if he does not uh push through with that filing then it may it must have something to do with Joel jumping ship. No. Uh but uh it could be that they're just delaying it delaying the filing. So, uh, that will be acceptable. Uh, but, uh, I hope they didn't, uh, uh, agree to just drop drop the case.
Basically agree, they will have to wait before joining Jingo. Um, we'll give them more time to enjoy in this beautiful world.
Okay, next thing we know they'll drag on this trial for Okay, now let's go to the trial because what if they'll drag on this trial forever?
Like >> is there a time limit there time frame mechanics now we're looking at justice when it comes to the upcoming trial of Suta? Well, uh [clears throat] so they will start uh I understand uh in uh July and uh July, August, September. They're saying that by October it should be over. They should uh complete everything. So I think it will even be faster than that.
But uh more or less uh it should not exceed October.
It should not or it could not. I mean ano ba legal? I mean it uh it can exceed October if they delay everything but [clears throat] uh we hope that they can finish this by October because uh that's enough time really I mean you can see they can keep on I mean we have seen politicians doing that I mean there's a big uh you know there's a big argument that the reason why ending Middle East is because Prime Minister held accountable disaster in terms of defending his country attacks in October 2023. So incentive to keep on getting into forever wars.
So I'm worrying like they'll keep on dragging this trial. Um but when it comes to the trial uh justice so the prosecution team will like mechanics is this going to be similar in the past impeachment uh like to what degree instructive precedence or president erup like what are we looking at or generous what are we looking at in terms of this? Well, it will follow the same procedure uh generally in the impeachment of uh CJ Corona, Chief Justice Corona. So uh we have seen that already and uh the most important thing here is uh uh the impeachment court should subpoena the bank accounts and the uh bank officials who have knowledge or who know the the history of these bank accounts >> and and and justice how should we how do we feel about this in terms of prosecution team. Do do you think they have uh the right people?
Do we have the uh the right evidence this time and how this is going to turn out differently? And at the same time, civil society groups for again last year.
Well, uh the uh the chief uh prosecutor is Congresswoman Luistro Jerville Luis and I think she's very competent and uh and they've been practicing. So, they're ready, I think, and uh I have confidence that they will be able to present the evidence and the uh with the witnesses uh uh with the right witnesses uh to establish the uh uh guilt beyond reason guilt. No, this is not a criminal case. So, it's really up to the senators how they view this.
But I think from the point of view of the public uh they will be able to convince the public that uh there are enough grounds to convict. know whether they are actually they will actually vote to convict that's another matter >> and and and and and justice um issue how how important is this trial for Philippine democracy now especially after everything that has happened over the past years and how how important is this?
Well, it's uh very important because this is not just uh uh uh loss of government funds or malveration or uh bribery involving uh uh public officers.
But this really connects to the death of 30,000 Filipinos because anglabasto uh where did those uh 6.7 billion uh emanate? Where did these huge amounts come? Uh who deposited this uh who issued these checks? No. So I have a I have a my analysis is this will show that uh some personalities involved in the drug trade have deposited money here. No. So >> related.
>> Yeah. Related to and so it goes also to the HEG because if this uh uh those who deposited uh uh checks uh with amounting to millions of pesos, tens of millions of pesos in the bank account of the former president used jointly with the family. Well, that that will that uh that uh evidence will reverberate all the way to to the Hague. No.
So, this one really uh uh is not merely uh draft and corruption.
It involves extrajudicial killings.
So it it's you know it's it's huge. This is huge.
So basically we cannot get this one wrong.
Checks and balances.
What did you say to that argument?
>> Well, uh the people might vote them back to office [laughter] uh because uh you have to establish whether they have committed this terrible crimes. No. and then the people will not vote for them. And if you don't establish that, the people might vote for them.
Um and optimistic justice if ever trial no matter what's the verdictal regardless final votes numbers unfortunate considerations assuming verdict accountability.
>> Yeah. Well, if the uh bank records are opened, the bank officials will testify uh who issued these who deposited these amounts. And uh I think uh there's really no need for conviction even if uh uh there won't be 16 uh senators who will vote to convict. No, because it's there. You cannot uh and you cannot uh change that. Uh it's proof of uh how can somebody get 6.7 billion in his account.
So it could uh come only from government funds or from drug money or both.
So uh this is huge. No. And we've seen it. The the Amla people already said 6.7 billion came in. So it's a question of who who where did this money come? Who deposited the checks because the that amount has been established there. So uh this will be clarified and there's really no need to convict her. But uh my thinking is once this uh this is confirmed and the checks uh the issue the issuers of the check can be identified.
I think there's uh the the people will just decide uh who to vote for in 2028.
You don't need a conviction.
Um Anomalous alleged anomalous bank activities added value when it comes to reliability to make the right choice when it comes to rule of law.
Although trial lower house. Well, the lower house we know the amount but who are the people who put this money in in the bank account and if these people you can deduce already from the uh from the list of depositors why they deposited I mean and the depositors will be subpoenaed also.
why are you deposing so much money? So, it will really convince everyone.
I say right now they're still denying but uh once the bank records are brought and the bank officials will testify I mean [laughter] So justice, let's try to do from the other side of the equation.
I mean, I'm not saying to avoid accountability, just for the for everyone to be ready for this maneuvers, legal tactics considering Supreme Court. I think they're trying to have the Supreme Court to come in from all different ways.
very unlikely. Um, so now it really goes down to what happens in inside the Senate prospective legal tactics and also supporters.
Can they sabotage it again?
Hey, I'm not ruling out anything. If just to get enough numbers all the basically to help Sutter, what will stop them from doing other crazy things down the road?
>> Well, uh I think they fired their best shot already uh because they they were able to seize the leadership.
uh they really forced it because once uh they have the leadership uh by just a majority vote they can dismiss the uh although it's not really correct because there must be a trial but they will take their chances. Uh what Sara did was to file uh in effect a motion to dismiss not a uh and a motion needs only a majority vote to grant that was I think the plan not to have a trial because the moment you have a trial they'll have a problem because the bank records will come out no will be produced.
So their game plan was to cease the leadership and then dismiss the impeachment complaint by majority vote.
Let it be fought in the Supreme Court because the Constitution says once the Senate receives the articles of impeachment, trial shall forth with proceed. A motion to dismiss is not a trial.
So, but but they're going to uh do a motion to dismiss and grant it precisely because they want they don't want a trial.
But that was frustrated that was uh countered by well the minority uh the group of Gachalian turned to be turned out to be the majority were able to get people to transfer Scuddero and Joel.
So, It's uh I I I think they they themselves uh don't know how to uh solve that problem now. Well, there are rumors of uh agitating the military, but I don't think the military will move. No. So, >> is that how you see the Maritas 18, sorry, the Marines 18 uh the whole expose whatever? Well, and and that's part of their plan, but it's a dud that it has become comical, the 18 Marines.
>> So, it's really uh very they're in a very tight spot now. So, I don't know what else they will do because the trial will proceed.
No.
Um justice, they did it all.
He threw it everything.
They did it all. They they threw their best shots at Justice Scorpio.
Um, are you expecting, again, I know this is more a Ronald Lyama's kind of question, but are you expecting that more senators will defect over time as this gets worse for one side and although we can debate about their motivations? I mean you could also see the others also defecting solar mommy >> there could be more defections actually >> and and and you're optimistic now Sherwin could be the right person to navigate this difficult times again just to be I mean was like number three2 I mean I think No one is denying that but at the same time arc of redemption from the go to the vote on the the the trial last year.
So I think in a way he has redeemed himself or at least he's center enough no to hold the whole thing together.
Yeah, I think it can hold uh uh the the majority together because well, first of all, the majority don't want to rock the boat anymore. It will be a problem if uh the majority will have to choose another uh leader. No. uh and uh I think uh uh 2 three years ago they nobody really knew if uh uh these bank accounts existed. I mean they they couldn't tell for sure. No. So uh we cannot blame uh uh Gachelan for causing up to Sara at that time. No.
Um just let's move to the last part of our discussion which is related moving parts. Um so one of the things is okay um the Senate is doing what they can do. SP 13 SB1 BBM Twilight Twilight Zone Twilight years legacy years although of course so he has to show something right he has to show something in terms of accountability but what about the pink progressive centrist movements uh justice as we speak my meetings Ug coalitional kind of meetings or informal liberal party Magdalo Akbayan among others. Uh again uh it looks like Lenny is the strongest but Bam and Ree are also not doing too bad in the surveys in terms of head-to-head justice because again under the one Samb Bayan umbrella there were efforts in the past to to finally put something together and if ever is one open to support someone who's not within that circle someone who's not Kiko Riza Bam or Lenny someone who's I don't know Tulfo family name where are we on that debate because the Tulos are also doing very well in the service Irwin in the vice presidency raf is I think even beating s in the head to head in some of the surveys I've seen um for 2028 in terms of that discussion justice I think people are also looking at >> well right now I think uh Lenny is still uh uh the best candidate uh uh to to run against Sara. Uh but uh Lenny has not said anything uh that she will she would reconsider. So I think the if after the trial right after the trial and people already know the uh the the real situation. Uh then at that point uh that's the last moment for Lenny to to decide if she wants to reconsider because at that time the ratings of Sara will plummet and uh she will move up and she will be the front runner already and if she still doesn't want we'll just have to look for somebody else.
>> So basically October is there hard deadline again everyone wants to fil by that time by well okay before the end of the year I don't think uh because uh you still have the entire 2027 seven.
Uh but uh that will be really at the uh we cannot delay it longer than October or November.
So hopefully before 2027 clarity on this that should be the we cannot let uh 27 uh 2027 come in without uh choosing one already >> and last justice. Um so um 10th anniversary of arbitration West Philippine Sea. Um discussion we should move to the next phase of legal warfare against China. Um and building on that something that since ever and of course Wall Street Journal I remember very well laid out next wave of legal warfare. where go where are we in terms of that? Um, is this the right time also to do this considering the Philippines is uh the ASEAN chair? Um, I'm not sure how much you followed it, but of course we lost to Kyan for a non-permanent security council which tells you isolated us in the UN General Assembly.
We should play more safe at this point in time. I mean, how do you also see the president inviting Vladimir Putin, ICC wanted alleged war criminal to visit? I know it's supposed to be a nice team, but I know in the past South Africa and Indonesian major demured on that question uh and Mongolia was heavily criticized for actually welcoming Putin last year. So where are we on that? Uh Justice Scorpio on this China Russia should Philippines play it safe this year as Cherai or no let's escalate let's go for it. Well, uh I think uh the we can wait for the uh sayan summit to finish and then file the arbitration case. But the problem is I don't think uh this administration is is minded to file an arbitration case. I've been uh pushing for this for the longest time and uh I don't think they want to file.
they uh it looks like they don't want to displace China for whatever reason. So they will not do anything. That's the big problem now. So uh the I think we will have to uh look at the next administration if you want uh an arbitration case to be filed. I mean there's a lowhanging fruit the arbitration over the extended continental shelf. We cannot lose in that case. Uh and China will not cannot win in that case because China is so far away more than 350 nautical miles. But this administration doesn't seem to want to file even if it's it's a winning case. There is no way we can lose. They don't want to do anything.
So uh it uh so we'll just have to look at the next administration. It looks like uh they don't want to displace China. That's the big problem.
drastically crazy on China in ways that Russia and US have been doing over the past few years. But obviously complacent but so far some of the nightmare scenarios we were worried about and should continue to worry about fruition um like for instance reclamation of Scarbor another showdown over the second tool.
So argument DFA is let's not rock the boat. Let's just get through this year.
This is a crazy year and then I think there's also an expectation will even come to Manila for the summit. Uh although now I'm a little bit more skeptical of that than let's say 5 months ago. Um how do you see that argument justice? Now maybe we shouldn't rock the boat right now because as bad as things are it could get dramatically worse considering the the backdrop. You know I am worried with this thinking that uh uh let's uh the Chinese prime minister or president is coming to Manila so we should not do anything. That's exactly what happened during the time of uh president GMA. Uh the Chinese said our prime minister will not go to Manila uh if you don't remove the uh the landing ship that was beached in Scarbor because we two landing ships one in a Ying Shaw and one in Scarbor.
So what the GMA administration did was to remove the landing ship that will be beach in Scarbor.
So the Chinese prime minister came here but look what happened because we had no landing ship there. They took over Scarbor.
I mean uh this idea that uh oh let's not uh displace China. But China has a plan.
They are going to get it anyway.
We we we we cannot uh uh uh tailor our actions uh on the whims of China that one day they put the uh floating duck on scarab remove it but they will put a again a bigger floating duck.
So we we just have to have a long-term strategy that this is what we will do regardless of what China does because we've got we've been there. China will tell you, oh we only we're only putting a sh fisherman shelter. We're only putting a radar weather station on fiery cross reef. But all of these shows are now air and naval bases of China. So we we have to be more strategic. uh we cannot just respond because China is dangling uh uh candy. Uh we we should not lose sight of our long-term goal. So uh uh I'm my thinking is that China will build really on Scarbor one day and that should be uh what we will attack. how to stop China from building on Scarbor because the logic of the situation means they will build because they need an air naval base to uh to control the basis channel to prevent the Americans from entering the ba the South China Sea in case of uh invasion of uh they invade Taiwan no and uh in caseh there's a conflict uh between among the countries in the dispute uh on the South China Sea. They don't want the Americans to enter the South China Sea. They want to control the Basi channel. So uh that is uh that is their plan. That has always been their plan and they wanted to the mere fact that they cease means they they have a long-term plan on Scarbor and uh during the summit of the G27 in uh China uh American satellites uh saw uh dredgers from China proceeding to Scarbor to reclaim Scarbor and Obama President Obama called a prenise not to do it because there will be consequences. So there is really that plan and now China has declared the Scarabor as a nature reserve marine nature reserve and to to maintain that they need to have a people on the on uh uh in a mon uh to to man the monitoring station that means it will be occupied by China and once it's occupied it's like the fisherman shelter it will morph into an air and naval base.
So, uh we just have to have a long-term plan on how to stop that and we don't have that long-term plan.
>> One way I look at this justice is if logical step China anyway I look at the uh arbitration phase, second phase of arbitration as a kind of an anti-corion measure. No. um uh not to mention of course anti-corion initiatives trade for instance you reimpose but the thing is you can only use that like every time it's kind of a nuclear option on our part so the worry is that if we throw that at China then bargaining chip it's just a matter of duking it out and whatever comes after that it makes sense to also build our momentum in terms of defense capability reassurances from US working with Japion initiatives.
Yeah, we're actually doing that. We're expanding our security arrangements. Uh we have uh we just signed with France uh a VFA vis forces agreement. Next will be UK and uh maybe later on with Netherlands or Germany but uh we we are expanding uh but of course these are these are not mutual defense treaties. No and uh but that's what we've been doing and but and I agree we have to really beef up our military because at the end of the day that's really the hardware we can use. No. uh at the end of the day it will boil down to that whether you have a deterrent capability and uh if we uh if we develop enough deterrence then uh China will uh uh will back off. Uh [clears throat] but uh it takes time to build that deterrence. You cannot buy uh ships or airplanes off the shelf. No, takes time.
So, but we really have been uh uh acquiring more uh naval assets. But uh if only we can stop the uh pork barrel the flood control projects and put them put the money into uh uh acquiring naval assets. That would be the best. No, that's why we we we uh we we have to do these things to try to stop this uh flood control projects because they are eating away eating up our budget for naval defense in the 2025 budget.
Uh what they did was to remove the budget for uh acquisition of uh [clears throat] naval and aerial assets for the West Philippine city.
They put it in pork barrel in the DPW about 30 billion. Uh those are the things that we have to stop no so that uh the we we can acquire more assets, strengthen our defense. So uh and we we have to do this simultaneously with other things. But uh uh I think uh the an arbitration would be the most friendly act we can do because that's uh a peaceful settlement of dispute.
So uh and if we don't do that uh China could just reclaim Scarbor and that ends it. We It will be useless for us. The arbitration will be useless the moment China is there.
>> Uhhuh. So what you're saying is that it's too late now phase. So the only counterargument to that would be do we have what it takes to withstand you potential repercussions because it is possible that China will opted because as you admitted it's going to take time for us to have like deterrence deterrence while we're still building up things. So what you're saying is that in the short to medium run anyway. So and then let's hope we're ready for the repercussions. I'm just trying to figure out just is the policy.
Well, the when we sued China in the first arbitration, the worst thing that they did was to stop our [clears throat] importing our bananas. But we easily readily found new markets uh because uh we actually buy more from China than uh chi uh than we sell to China. So if they disrupt trade, they'll have a problem because uh uh they're the ones uh uh having a trade surplus with us. So that's why they they didn't uh expand the uh their action.
They just tested it with a banana. But uh we were able to resolve that. So uh I don't think they they will do anything that uh that will upset the trade flows.
Uh but uh what else can we do?
That's a big problem. Uh if we remain as is they will continue to they will continue their creeping invasion.
>> Right. Um and and on on the Putin part, Justice, you you let's just say it was just a polite diplomatic uh invitation to Putin. I mean is was also wanted by ICC. So weird. Now we cooperate on ICC with Dong, but on Putin we are just going to ignore ICC uh warrant of arrest. That's kind of weird, isn't it?
>> Well uh yes. Uh but I I I think it was just uh uh what do you call this? the kahon it was just a >> a forum like yeah >> yeah it just uh a for formality to to extend invitation but the president did didn't really expect Putin to be traveling when there's a hat war going on in his uh in in the dawn bus in his border the last thing he would do is to come here >> but yeah cuz well he went to Mongol in Vietnam the other year, you know, and uh is the propaganda points Russia is going to score. They're going to say, "See, even the Philippines, democratic, liberal country allied to the US is open to invite us, so we're good." And this is Azan after all. Although, I won't be surprised if Trump would be happy to see Putin in Manila later this year. I mean, who who knows, right?
But I I really don't know the logic of inviting uh of uh Putin uh uh because uh our uh our sympathies are with Ukraine of course because uh there are two nuclear armed superpowers that are trying to overturn the existing legal order.
Russia by invading Ukraine, China by uh invading our maritime zones.
So I don't know why we and that these two are really coordinating to overturn the existing legal order. I don't know why uh uh we will be inviting Putin here. uh he he doesn't really he cannot uh influence China in in in stop in uh in uh in in slowing down its activities in the South China Sea. No. So I I I can't see the the the the rational behind that invitation.
>> Exactly. awkward. I know that South Africa had to withdraw their invitation to put him before bricks summit I think Supreme Court or constitutional court made it clearly South Africa with the ICC although they're still a member of ICC I think last time I checked unlike the Philippines no so it it's not as straightforward but let's just hope it was just a formality but then again even with formality you can be a little bit more uh wise around We're open to Russia sending its represent to return our deposit when we bought those helicopters.
>> 300 million first range 60 million I suppose. No.
>> Yeah. We we paid and uh we we canled it so we forfeited that amount >> or they can send us oil. Um, last time I checked my waiver Russian oil and I think Iran okay legit you can buy last time I check yeah Russia can pay us in oil okay that's okay >> for all we know that's that's in the books no because we need that oil we need that uh resources at this point in time in as much as and anyway they owe that to us as as you mentioned correctly no um but again we're in crazy times no thanks to Trump I think both Russia and Iran Oh, uh soon we'll be legally I think even more Iran than Russian peace deal will be able to sell their oil and um and gas internationally. So we're in the midst of really really dramatic moments.
Justice Scorpio for that really comprehensive analysis of so many things. No, and very authoritatively obviously um not authoritative but I always appreciate your very measured authoritative interventions.
Justice Scorpio and looking forward to catching up with you in person soon.
Justice discussions live commentary.
Marleta will join us live justice. We'll have a panel discussion between the twoaries. [laughter] Looking forward to the justice.
>> Oh, Marcoleta said he he's expecting a warrant of arrest. So maybe we should just visit him in jail. So let's do it before we can do a pre and post production with with our good friends there in the Senate. Justice Scarpio again for keeping you up late but really really appreciate your fantastic interventions. God bless and talk to you soon po.
>> Thank you Richard. And thank you.
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