This Is Where Bitcoin Bottoms... (Historical Signal Proves)

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]This is where Bitcoin's about to bottom.

[00:00:04]This is a very interesting chart for Bitcoin and we must discuss it within today's update video because these lines actually perfectly predicted where Bitcoin bottomed out during bear markets and previous mid-term year. So, that's what we are going to discuss. Within today's video, we will discuss a lot more than only that like the upcoming new Fed chair which take office tomorrow and the effect on that on Bitcoin and much more within today's update video.

[00:00:34]So, make sure to first of all come over to the channel, subscribe to the channel. If we can push this video above 50 likes again, that would be absolutely amazing and from there we can dive into the most important content. Starting off with two very important moving average trend lines for Bitcoin on the weekly time frame. I'm talking about the 210-week moving average and the 300-week moving average here for Bitcoin because these lines do show us a very clear and important pattern in trying to predict where Bitcoin could be bottoming out this bear market once again because between these lines, that is exactly where Bitcoin does bottom out during the bear market. If we go back all the way to 2014, which was that first big bear market and also mid-term year, we had the bear market and we saw it bottoming out and wicking below the 200-week moving average then bottoming on the 200-week moving average before starting a major new bull market. Same can be said here for 2018.

[00:01:36]During COVID, we also willed towards the 300-week moving average and same can be said for 2022 when we even broke below those levels and if you would ask me, there is an opportunity that Bitcoin in these weeks towards the 300-week moving average level. What we of course did see during all of the bear markets and during all of Bitcoin's history is that these lines are slowly contracting together and now we are looking into quite some contracted lines. So, it is definitely possible that Bitcoin even weeks below the 300 weekly moving average level, but if there's something we learned from 2022, that is going to be one of your best buy opportunities for Bitcoin because just looking to this, if you would have bought Bitcoin there at those levels in 2022, it would have been the absolute bottom and you would have made quite a large profit, a profit of about, let's just count it out here, 700% so in 7x on your Bitcoin position.

[00:02:36]I do not necessarily think that those returns are going to be very realistic now once again here next bull market, but I do think a 3 to 4x is most definitely going to be possible for Bitcoin, which would put us at about, let's say the 200 now even over the 200k level. So, it might be a little bit too euphoric to even, but let's start with 2 to 3x for Bitcoin is definitely possible from of those lows I would say and those lines we need to keep our eyes on them because there we can see where Bitcoin could potentially be bottoming out where we can accumulate a lot of Bitcoin and of course increase our spot holdings during the bear market, which is my biggest goal here during the midterm year. Then we have this important pattern playing out which we discussed many times in the channel with the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh taking office tomorrow and every single time we have a new Fed chair or just the new term of the Fed chair getting started, there we see some major pivots for Bitcoin. It's not only due to the Fed chair, I do think markets do like to tend the Fed chair because the S&P 500 is probably also going to test the new Fed chairman, but I also think it's due to seasonality. We are now in May and usually May is a bearish pivot month for Bitcoin during the midterm year. So, it simply does make a lot of sense here.

[00:03:49]If we look into the current Bitcoin relief rally, we are doing something very similar like we saw here during 2022 where we also had a relief rally. I think if we compare Bitcoin here with 2022, it's more likely that we are in this stage indeed than that we are in that stage because I do see people making the comparisons with this stage and this stage too, but I think that's that's not quite correct because if you would be aiming for something like that, it would mean that from off the high to the low, you're going to drop another 66% to the downside and I do not think that is too realistic to be honest because that would be putting Bitcoin at about 30k level. I think this might be the most bearish case out there and I do not think it's a very realistic one because if you counted all the way back to the top side, then Bitcoin would have been dropping over 70 or almost 75% and that's very similar to the drawdown we actually saw in 2022 where we had some major black swan events. So, I do not think it's going to be likely we repeat that. I do believe in diminishing returns and that is why I do think it's much more realistic this is our high and we drop to the low and that's about a 40% move still, so it's still a quite a significant move here and that would indeed put Bitcoin at about that 50k level and I think that is a very realistic level because if we look into the historical data, it's a level where also some liquidity can be grabbed from off these important wicks here. Like we saw here in some of the initial Bitcoin moves up, we had a major rejection at that level and here during the 2024 consolidation, we had a big bounce from off those levels. So, I think some liquidity can be grabbed there and Bitcoin could potentially bottoming out at those levels, but I do not think this here is a very realistic scenario for Bitcoin. That's just my opinion there. Before we dive further into today's update video, make sure that you check out the first link in the description down below because there you can claim some free Ethereum trading positions. And second of all, if you are still looking for a place to be trading, I also have my own trading community where we have a completely free public community and a VIP community, but with the second link down below, you can join the public community and you will get access to some free trading positions.

[00:06:03]So, just come and check it out and if you like all of the stuff in there, make sure to also sign up for the VIP, but you can just start off with these free setups in the public community because all of the setups we shared so far did hit our take profits target, so that's quite amazing. You can join with the second link down below. There's a lot more value in there, but I don't want to keep repeating myself every single video. You can just check it out if you want to get started with trading. Now, I do want to discuss some important news we've seen hitting the markets yesterday with the first of all, Nvidia reporting higher earnings than expected once again. So, they did beat their earnings and that's very very positive thing for markets because this is of course the biggest company in the world and if you are going to see some very negative earnings, you might also see a big reversal for the US stock markets. Then, second of all, we had some huge news regarding Iran coming out. This was just about an hour ago that Iran's supreme supreme leader ordered that the uranium stockpile must remain inside of the country and this is a very important demand by Trump and probably over the last few days we've seen that Trump was saying we are now in the final stages of talks with Iran. But if this news is true, it's going to be a huge deal breaker because the most important thing for Trump is the nuclear dust, the nuclear aspect and if you are not going to see some compromise from off the Iranian side, I do think more escalation will be likely. And then for Bitcoin, on the short-term perspective, an extension higher remains to be possible, but I think the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin makes a higher low here and then from off there starts moving back down once again towards that 74K level. Now, we have been bouncing in the 75K support zone, but I think we're going to lose that 74K. We might be dropping even lower from off there, but of course, you will see some bounces on the way in the trend down. But, I think since Bitcoin broke the most important uptrend here, the current trend is going to be down unless Bitcoin is going to make a new higher, a new local high, then of course, it gets reversed. But, I do not think that's quite the realistic scenario. I think a higher low here is more likely and then a continued move down for Bitcoin. The rising wedge remains to be in play also. The rising wedge broke down, and this is a bearish continuation pattern, which always, or not always, but most of the times does play out further to the downside. So, I don't think this was the Bitcoin up. I think we could continue much lower, and your rising wedge target will be laying at about the 665K level, and I think that is going to be possible over the next few weeks. It won't happen in a simple move, but could go quite fast once Bitcoin is truly going to start dropping here. Then, a statistic I do want to discuss about Ethereum because Ethereum itself, the chart's not too interesting, so that's why I'm not specifically discussing it because Ethereum is looking even more weak than Bitcoin. But, I do think on the long term, Ethereum is going to be a great investment. I will be making some big Ethereum buys once again. I've not really started buying too much Ethereum because I do think it's still a little bit overvalued in terms of where we are sitting with potential rate hikes later in the year with very tight liquid to be expected over the next few months. So, I do think Ethereum is going to come lower. That's where I do will be accumulating. I think below 1.5K are going to be some good buys for Ethereum, and just lower from off there, I would say. But, what I do want to discuss is that we do see the Ethereum staked supply getting higher. So, the people that are actually accumulating are holding their Ethereum at the current levels. There's not that much selling pressure at the moment, and seems like smart money is actually holding for the next few years here by staking most of their Ethereum, which course, a very positive signal. So, that was it for today's video. If you did enjoy this video, make sure to subscribe to the channel, and then I will see you guys within my next video. Later.