Is the United States Winning the Fusion Race? Featuring Bob Mumgaard | Betting on America

[00:00:01]Fusion powers the sun and the stars. For 70 years, scientists have asked whether we could harness it to power human civilization. Not from a mine or a pipeline or even a tanker crossing the straight of Hormuz, but from a machine running on hydrogen extracted from water. Now, for most of those 70 years, the answer has always been the same.

[00:00:21]Wait 30 more. Bob Mumgard begs to differ, and he has the technology to prove it. In his words, "Unless you're really paying attention, it feels like it's impossible and then all of a sudden it feels inevitable, and that switch can happen very fast."

[00:00:38]The question is, who makes the switch first? China's 15th 5-year plan names fusion a strategic priority. The same playbook it ran for solar panels, batteries, and semiconductors.

[00:00:50]Its fusion reactors are breaking records. its machines may generate electricity from fusion within years, not decades.

[00:00:58]Now, in the United States, we're relying on a different model, on open ecosystems, not industrial policy, not a 5-year plan.

[00:01:07]Instead, we're using light touch government support, but really relying on private capital, university spinouts, national laboratory partnerships, and allied co-investment.

[00:01:19]The question for us today is whether that bet is the right one for one of the most consequential acceleration technologies of our time. I'm Naven Girishanker and my guest today is scientist, entrepreneur and co-founder and CEO of Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Bob Mungard.

[00:01:37]Welcome to Betting on America.

[00:01:46]>> [music] >> Bob Mumgard, thank you so much for joining Betting on America. It's a it's a pleasure to have you.

[00:01:55]>> Glad to be here. Thanks for having me.

[00:01:56]>> We spoke a few months ago and I was struck not only with your ability to go deep into fusion technology and the constraints and the challenges and the opportunities, but your ability to connect the dots across the US science and technology ecosystem. So I want to talk about all those things and uh take advantage of your being here to do that.

[00:02:16]But let's first start with the technology. Uh you know most Americans they know what that fusion is not vision but then that's kind of where the conversation ends. So educate us please uh about the technology.

[00:02:31]>> Yeah. So fusion is the process that happens inside all the stars. So it's the source of almost all the energy really in the solar system galaxy universe. Um, and it's a happen that are very specific conditions inside stars.

[00:02:46]Um, and it has some major advantages. It doesn't use a lot of fuel. Almost no fuel. In fact, that's why the stars are still around. Um, and uh, it you could turn it on and off anywhere if you could get it to work on Earth. You could build it many, many different places. It doesn't care about the weather, time of day. It doesn't care about what's under the ground. Um, and the challenge of course is you need to create, you know, a machine that creates the right conditions inside of it so that you can make this fusion reaction happen. Same way like you build a brewery to make the right conditions for beer to happen, right?

[00:03:19]>> Um, more complicated machine, more physics that's going on inside there.

[00:03:24]Um, but we're at the verge right now where we can see what those machines are look like. We understand that science.

[00:03:30]Um and uh you know it's a really big deal because it it really is an energy source that uh is free from a lot of constraints. You know it doesn't have the geostrategic constraints. It doesn't have this the fuel that you need to to go find and move around and have access to. It doesn't have the emissions. Um and so that is intriguing as an energy source at an an area we need a lot of energy.

[00:03:53]>> Well, what does it require as inputs um when you're when you're making stars?

[00:03:59]>> Yeah. So you know once you have the the machine worked out so you make that in a factory and then that is something that you know exists for many many decades.

[00:04:06]Well you actually feed it you feed it like very small amounts of of hydrogen special hydrogen. Um uh and by by small amounts I mean like very small amounts.

[00:04:16]So like a single uh bottle of water has enough of the hydrogen that that you infuse um to like power your entire life for your entire lifespan.

[00:04:25]>> Wow. Um and you know it's a big multiple if you think about like um fat powering like a coal power plant.

[00:04:34]>> Yeah.

[00:04:34]>> Know it's like a train of coal every day.

[00:04:38]>> Yeah.

[00:04:38]>> Well, fusion is more like the same amount of power but from only a few nuggets of that coal.

[00:04:45]>> That's phenomenal.

[00:04:46]>> That's the big difference.

[00:04:48]>> And what what is I've heard you say that you you make a star using big magnets.

[00:04:54]How do magnets play in? What kind of magnets are these? Explain that a little bit.

[00:04:59]>> Yeah. So, you know, the the the real effort here over the many decades and people have been working on this for a long time. They made a lot of progress is that we figured out that to to sort of have a star on Earth um you need to do something that um different. You can't just, you know, stars are very big. They're very heavy. Can't do that.

[00:05:18]And so instead, what you use you can use very strong magnets, >> right? And those magnets basically like make it so that you can really really well insulate the fuel. So that way it can get really really really hot.

[00:05:30]>> Yeah.

[00:05:31]>> And uh if it's well enough insulated, you can get it really hot without using a lot of power.

[00:05:36]>> Yeah.

[00:05:36]>> And eventually you get it hot enough, insulated enough, dense enough, and it will start to make the fusion action go vigorously at a level that will start to produce large amounts of fusion power, more power than it takes to heat it up.

[00:05:49]And so that's the the mechanism that happens inside these machines.

[00:05:53]>> Yeah.

[00:05:54]>> And uh you know they're pretty advanced machines to do this. We're still figuring out exactly what they should be. Um but uh at the heart of it is this science of how this hot stuff plasma interacts with things like magnetic fields. There's other ways to do it too, but magnetic fields are the way that most the world studies.

[00:06:12]>> Yeah. So let's linger on on some of these issues around the technology again just from a layman's perspective. What's the machine called?

[00:06:21]>> Yeah. So, the the type of machine that we use and it it broadly studied around around the world and many examples have been built. It's called a tokamac.

[00:06:28]>> Tok.

[00:06:29]>> Basically, a magnetic bottle. Yeah.

[00:06:31]That's kind of an odd word, but it's been around for a while and we built many different versions of it and they've gotten better and better and higher and higher performance and and so um but they're magnetic bottles that that inside them take tiny tiny amounts of fuel like level of grams like a grain of rice.

[00:06:48]>> Yeah. um and heat them up to temperatures that are hotter than the center of the sun and do so in a regime where um you could uh overcome the amount of energy used to heat it up from producing more energy from a future.

[00:07:03]You've said that, you know, scientists have been working on this for years, for decades, and the challenge has been how do you get to the point where this can be a commercially viable source of energy? You I've read and I've heard describe six milestones or benchmarks that you think are necessary to hit for this to actually then become viable uh for human to power human civilization.

[00:07:29]Could I ask you to walk through those and kind of red light, green light us as to where we are on those or yellow light?

[00:07:36]>> Yeah. So, um the uh first you have to make a machine that can even make plasma. Many many different types of machines exist to do. That's been done for a long time. Then you have to make it so the plasma is hot hot. It's like in a regime of fusion. Not quite all the way to making it as much fusion, but it's it's really hot. like 100 million degrees hot. Even 10 million degrees is is considered hot. So 10 million degrees.

[00:08:03]>> There's about a half a dozen types of machines that have done that. Okay?

[00:08:08]>> And dozens of examples that have done that. Then you got to get it to the point where it's hot, it's insulated, it's dense enough to be even in the neighborhood of fusion.

[00:08:17]>> There's only a few types of machines that have done that. There's these tokamax. There's these things called stellarators. There's these laser inertial laser systems. They've all done that. Still not yet where it's useful.

[00:08:30]It's still science effort at that stage.

[00:08:33]>> Yeah.

[00:08:33]>> The next one, the fourth milestone is you're now actually making fusion power, fusion reactions, and you're making them where it's more power from the fusion than it took to get it hot.

[00:08:44]>> Now you've got the basis something useful. The fusion reaction is adding >> to everything.

[00:08:50]>> That's the heart of a fusion power plant. doesn't mean that you're actually using it to make electricity yet, but like you've shown that you can get to the right conditions, >> right?

[00:08:59]>> And you make actual fusion energy from the reactions.

[00:09:04]>> There's only been one machine that has done that. That is the machine in California called NF. It's a big laser.

[00:09:10]>> It's a testament to the the national um science program, national labs.

[00:09:15]>> Yeah, >> we're building a machine in Massachusetts. It's anticipated to do that.

[00:09:19]>> Okay.

[00:09:19]>> And all the predictions are that it will do. Um, the next step is now you've hooked that fusion piece, that very specific fusion piece into the more general piece of just a power plant.

[00:09:30]>> Okay.

[00:09:31]>> And you're taking the heat from fusion and you're turning it into electricity.

[00:09:34]>> You're making electricity where it's more electricity out.

[00:09:38]>> Yeah.

[00:09:38]>> Than in everything that you're consuming. So you're selling net electricity. You you have a gross you have net electricity leaving your plant.

[00:09:45]Your meter is spinning.

[00:09:46]>> Net net energy >> net energy gain from that process. Yeah.

[00:09:51]So, first you get net energy gain from the plasma. Okay. And then you get from the plant electricity.

[00:09:55]>> I see. Okay. Yep.

[00:09:57]>> So, those are milestones four and five.

[00:10:00]>> Doesn't say what the cost point is.

[00:10:02]>> Then the last one is you do this at a cost point that is beats the market everywhere in the world.

[00:10:07]>> Yeah.

[00:10:07]>> Um and and so those are the steps. So the world is sitting at the point where they've got an example of net net energy from the the plasma.

[00:10:16]>> Yeah. and NE. We got another one being built in Massachusetts by us. We got one being built by China. Um and then people are planning for the first power plants.

[00:10:27]Our first power plant to make electricity turn the meter from going in to out. Uh that that plant is going to be in Virginia.

[00:10:35]>> A lot of people uh when it comes to critical and emerging technologies are concerned about the labtomarket transition.

[00:10:43]What I hear you saying is you're pretty far down that road. You're basically peering into the market at this stage.

[00:10:50]Is that right?

[00:10:52]>> Yeah. So, you know, from the lab to science transition, um, you know, fusion has been done in the lab. We know how the science works. We have computer codes that predict it. We have example machines that have been built. They're not commercial machines, but they're at the National Labs University. And what we're doing is we're taking that that foundation >> and we're bringing in the customer, bringing in utilities. We have partnership for instance with Dominion, bringing in the offtakers of power partnerships with with Google. Um, and we're bringing a bunch of engineering, a bunch of supply chain, a bunch of sort of the engineering problem solving, but productization, >> right?

[00:11:30]>> And coupling it. And we're demonstrating that by building this machine in in in Massachusetts and then planning and getting ready to build the first commercial machines and and this transition out from a science to an industry. You know, every existing industry today has gone through that like you know sometimes it happens fast.

[00:11:50]Usually it happens faster than people think. Think about like what AI went from like pure research to like application like blink >> biotech before that. You know, you can go back to nuclear power, you can go back to flights, you can go through all these these things or you have this this moment where you understand how it works, you have existence that it works.

[00:12:10]Now turn it into a product and fusion's going through that trajectory. Um, and it's going through it like real time.

[00:12:16]>> Now Bob, you're a scientist and obviously uh made significant contributions in this field as a scientist. Now you're entering this you're now far into this world of trying to make something commercially viable.

[00:12:31]Uh so you're also a manufacturer if I understand it correctly. Explain this process because you hear a lot of talk about reindustrialization uh in the United States. Well, you're in a in an industry that's industrializing for the first time. Um what is that like as a as the CEO of a manufacturing company as well? Well, you know, this I I came uh from MIT. I was I was there for a long time and uh we had this question of like what would a fusion industry look like because there's not an existing fusion industry, right? And uh and so that really was an impetus for the company even starting. Um and this is you know in the about 10 years ago.

[00:13:13]Uh and you know what it would look like as it turns out is like yeah you got to make fusion machines because what fusion is is energy not as a natural resource that you're consuming.

[00:13:23]>> Instead it's energy as a thing you make.

[00:13:26]>> Right.

[00:13:26]>> And you make a a widget.

[00:13:29]>> Yeah.

[00:13:29]>> And that widget then makes energy.

[00:13:31]>> Yeah.

[00:13:31]>> And so we got to figure out how to make that widget. Turns out it's a complicated widget. It's a plant. It's got many many parts and a big supply, >> but it's a widget nonetheless.

[00:13:40]>> And so we're um uh part of that. You know, these these tokens have these very large magnets. And we had to we had used a new magnet technology to to be able to make these much more commercially interesting. [clears throat] And so we had to build a factory to actually make those. And of course, that [snorts] factory didn't exist before. So like who should be the right people? You know, where do you hire from? Like and turns out like making fusion machines is kind of like making planes or rockets or ships.

[00:14:07]>> Yeah.

[00:14:07]>> So we got people from all those industries. Um and we have a factory here in Massachusetts that makes uh these large high high magnetic field magnets. Um and it employs people several hundred people. They work you know shifts all 247 um to to put together our uh our fusion demonstration machine Spark. So, you're literally building a supply chain that didn't exist before.

[00:14:33]>> Um, >> yeah.

[00:14:35]>> And I can imagine there are all kinds of considerations as you do that, particularly around the regulatory framework, one that's probably still wet clay. Uh, I wanted to ask you your thoughts uh on on how that regulatory framework is evolving uh relative to say a fision uh nuclear fision and there are differences. So I want to hear that and then I have some questions around the capital side of the story. But let's start with the regulation.

[00:15:02]>> Yeah. So the the regulation um when we started to build this this plant uh [clears throat] outside Boston Spark uh it was a you know like constitutional level question about what who even had jurisdiction over regulating a fusion machine. And so you know we went through a process um as an industry actually we started a process. So the industry has carried on and we've been a participant in that uh is like oh let's figure that out let's get some regulatory certainty >> right >> um and we were fortunate that we had enough time to figure this out and also that we had uh nuclear regulatory commission who was uh instructed by Congress to like really take this seriously.

[00:15:43]>> Yeah.

[00:15:44]>> And the UK had actually frontr run the United States in this and the UK figured this out first.

[00:15:48]>> Wow. But the um the NRC ran a two-year process and lots of public consultation and decided unanimously and then later um passed by by Congress as law that fusion would be regulated separately from fision because it has a very different hazard base. It's it's the opposite reaction. So like it should be very different >> and so it's regulated in a way that makes it much easier to innovate. It makes it much easier to um to build the actually the regulations are enforced by the states. So you have local representation in uh the actual plant.

[00:16:23]That's because the plants themselves the hazard base. You don't have any scenario that's a meltdown or or a runaway.

[00:16:29]There's no uranium. There's no plutonium. There's no connection to you know the the fision weapons. There's no um uh uh long live nuclear waste where you're thinking about many generations.

[00:16:40]Instead, it it's actually regulated in the same framework that like a cancer treatment center is regulated where you're you're protecting the employees.

[00:16:49]>> Wow. Okay.

[00:16:49]>> And it's an industrial process. So like it's not just the fusion specifically.

[00:16:53]It's the rest of it.

[00:16:55]>> So that's actually been established in the United States now. It's now the law of the land. The rules are out and the spark facility in Massachusetts already has its license, its operation license.

[00:17:04]>> Interesting.

[00:17:05]>> Um and so that's that's super exciting.

[00:17:07]and and now the rest of the world is is sort of playing catch-up in some ways and um uh you know it's an important aspect of uh the US you know acting as a leader in this area we think is very important.

[00:17:19]>> Uh just a thought there um do you anticipate in the future maybe far into the future competition between states given that they are kind of in the pole position of the regulation around this?

[00:17:32]Um, not really. Uh, you know, because the the basic principles are the same everywhere. So, it's not like you you shop it. Um, right.

[00:17:41]>> Uh, you want to be sure that you have a state that has a capability. Um, and so in Massachusetts, uh, where our Spark is, you know, we've had a strong, um, capability here from the beginning. Um, in Virginia where, um, uh, the commercial power plant ARC is is is, um, undergoing permitting. uh you know they actually established a a leadership position under the governor for a fusion person and they're building out the regulatory framework in the state to to be able to to properly handle this.

[00:18:12]>> Got it. That it's very interesting unique and probably like fortuitous that >> uh you do not have an o ownorous regulatory framework. It gives it's permissive of innovation. There is another side to it though if I understand it correctly which is getting on the grid. That's not something that happens immediately. So when you think about constraints to making this a viable source commercial source of energy or commercially viable source of energy I should say uh talk a little bit about getting on the grid because it's not doesn't happen with the snap of the fingers. Yeah, that's right. And it's it's interesting to think about like, okay, fusion is this advanced technology, right? Yeah. But one of the the benefits of fusion is it makes power that you can put anywhere. Um, and it looks like a power plant that would say like a coal or gas power plant in the sense that the grid has something that can turn on, off, uh, and run. So, you poke it literally to the grid almost the exact same way. Um but actually doing that for any power plant is a a bit of an ownorous process these days.

[00:19:18]>> Yeah.

[00:19:18]>> And so in many ways like the longest lead time activity to a fusion power plant some of it is that interconnection. Um >> and we actually just filed the interconnection application. So this is the the technical document that goes through all the attributes of the the energy project fusion project. Yeah.

[00:19:37]>> For the Virginia project. We just filed that with PJM which is the largest uh transmission grid. Um and so it's been a multi-year process to even just uh you know get the drop down menu for fusion at PJM. Um so they can understand what to do with the application.

[00:19:55]>> Well, it seems to me for an emerging technology um it's really important like with other emerging technologies to have revenue predictability over time. Um and given that it takes some time to get you know that interconnection, do you feel that plays into or it affects your ability to go out to investors and say look this is a viable there's there's ROI here that's competitive with other sources of energy or other emerging technologies.

[00:20:26]>> Um it's still a little bit early because you know you got you're lining up all the pieces and and really that's what we're doing. It's like >> there's a a puzzle that has to be put together and like you know first look you're like oh I don't even know how to start but then you start to put the pieces together right >> and you can see where it's coming all together and so one piece is like okay do I have a site >> do I have a supply chain >> right >> do I have the ability to hook it to the grid do have a utility partner >> do I have an offtaker who's going to buy the power they agreed on the price >> do I have the regulations they're going to let me turn it on right >> do I have the technology technology that that I know works.

[00:21:04]>> Do I have the ability to deliver it and construct it? And so we're going through piece by piece by piece so that by the time the last piece goes in and the last piece should be the technical piece because we'd hate to have the everything else hold up innovation. The fundamental engine here is a technical innovation engine, >> right? Okay. The last piece is the technical piece that will happen with the machine in the facility in Massachusetts operating and making more power out than in that fourth milestone.

[00:21:34]>> Yeah. Well, like you've raised a meaningful amount of private capital. I mean, it's quite a quite a statement for what you've done here. And uh just for in the interest of transparency, Nvidia, Google, Draen Miller, 12 different chi Japanese companies have invested um in in Commonwealth Fusion Systems and I think it's something around $3 billion, but I can imagine well I don't know can imagine that that's not nearly enough in terms of what you're trying to achieve.

[00:22:05]Um what are the biggest challenges you faced in mobilizing private capital?

[00:22:12]Yeah. So, you know, it's it's about $3 billion and it's a very deep uh techn a very deep capital stack engineered that way and long-term patient capital that can look and see there's this big market that can be addressed with technological change. Yeah.

[00:22:27]>> That you know is limiting a bunch of other people's businesses. So, there's >> demand no shortage of demand. Let's go attack the technology.

[00:22:35]>> Right.

[00:22:36]>> Um and so we've been able to to put that together. That's one of the largest private um backings of any energy company for sure. Um and uh you know it's been uh eye openening experience because it really is uh an enabler of our ability to go fast. Right.

[00:22:52]>> Right.

[00:22:52]>> Anyways we look like you know like a SpaceX type structure. It's vertically integrated do a lot of work ourselves.

[00:22:59]>> Yeah.

[00:22:59]>> Iteration very quickly and parallel >> and uh you know not there's not actually capital that's really set up for that.

[00:23:06]So fortunately, we've been able to to find people that that that see the opportunity, see the way that we can operate. You know, we consistently do what we said we're going to do. So we've been able to to build that. Um we're very transparent, so you know where we are in our path. We peer review publish all of our science so you know what we're based on. Um and that's all contributed to being able to put that capital together. Is it enough capital?

[00:23:30]It's not enough to go build up a power plant right now, but it's in the right order of magnitude. It's not like we have to go and like raise many many times that. Um yeah.

[00:23:38]>> Uh and so we feel confident in like our ability to do that. But it is a situation where like >> you know we're at the edge a bit of like the US capital markets and and really like we're a globally investor base for us. Um, right.

[00:23:51]>> And so seeing riskbased capital >> understand these types of opportunities >> um in deep tech um uh is uh you know we really are are at the vanguard of that and and you could really only do that in the United States frankly but even in the United States there's a limit and like other places in a more centralized world like you know in some cases our biggest competitors is China who has a program that is capitalized many times over what we are.

[00:24:17]>> Yeah. and they didn't have to spend their time uh putting together an investor certificate.

[00:24:22]>> So, that's a good segue to talk about competitors because it's good to understand what you're doing uh and then it's good to keep in mind what your competitors uh around the world are doing in this area. So, let's let's start with China and then I want to you mentioned the UK and maybe there's some others that we should talk about. But when it comes to China, their um their their current 5-year plan or the 15th 5-year plan prioritizes fusion as a strategic priority along the lines just in the same vein as quantum and 6G and other technologies and they so you get a sense of how important it is to them. My understanding is they've deployed significant amounts of public capital, sovereign capital as well behind this similar playbook to what they've done in other areas, chips and so on and so forth. Um, give us your sense of the orders of magnitude. Where do you think they are? Is is the technology the constraint for them or is it the capital that's the constraint? Where are they relative to us, relative to you?

[00:25:24]>> Yeah. So you know the US and and and allies particularly UK, Japan, uh Germany, you know, really strong historically in the fusion science and and talk more about where the US uh government is in fusion but like strong in the science but not um commercialization focus. M >> meanwhile what the Chinese have done is quickly you know over the last about 15 years >> they have used the global science they've internalized it and then what they've added is they've added a large amount of capital and people and centralization >> um and so the strategic competitive studies project the group that did the AI report they have a fusion report right >> and as I was a commissioner on that >> and as part of that you know was a a detailed study of what is the state of the Chinese program, >> right?

[00:26:15]>> And the Chinese program has put somewhere depending on how you convert somewhere around $10 billion into it since 2022 when N showed that this was possible.

[00:26:26]>> Um that is dwarfs the public approaches in the west.

[00:26:31]>> You know they are building a China a fusion city type situation where they've mobilized the largest state-owned enterprises. think China grid, China National Nuclear, put them around their established uh fusion research centers, expanded those and are building the facilities that have been on the drawing boards for many years in the US. Um and so that's you know laying the groundwork that will eventually pay off in a series of uh you know major advances like infusion in deep tech and in these areas like quantum all those like the advances don't happen on a quarterly basis they happen because you build ecosystems you invest in facilities you compound learning and they're doing that and they're doing that in a systematic way they're doing it from behind frankly on the technology and and science. Yeah.

[00:27:26]>> But they have great scientists and they they they do have great technology. And so that's um in the landscape we expect to happen on the global fusion landscape is to have the them at a much much more uh important significant leadership level that will go alongside the private companies which are primarily US-based and we are by far the largest well most capitalized of them. Um and meanwhile you're looking and seeing some other countries start to signal increased ambition and and start to leverage public programs and partnerships with private programs.

[00:27:59]>> Yeah. So that's really interesting. You describe what China is doing. Not surprising given that they have deep pockets. They have a strategic orientation towards these advanced and or these acceleration technologies. They have a national security impetus for doing that. So do we. But they have a particular approach. Let's just hit a couple of other countries, our allies in market-based democracies and what they're doing. Uh Germany, I think, is doing. Tell me about what Germany's doing. Uh and a couple of others in terms of government. Yeah.

[00:28:31]>> Yeah. So, we've had a situation where we effectively have like five countries that have said they want to have the first fusion power. We got the US, the UK, got the Germans, got the Japanese, got the Chinese. Um and so they're all building their own sort of approach to that.

[00:28:46]>> Yeah.

[00:28:47]>> Talked about uh the the Germans have just recently announced a large about three three two and a two and a half to three billion euro package to work with the the private um companies to go and towards this. the the Japanese just uh uh uh was coming out of Japan sort of on the order of like 40 billion dollars of a big effort to go on fast on on uh faster on fusion. The UK has got a a multi-billion dollar effort um centered around Oxford and so you're starting to see these these merge you know the US rhetoric but we haven't seen shift >> tell me about the US what are we doing or not doing >> so in the US um you know this this is a policy >> discussion get a little policy wonky here right >> yeah yeah please >> so the US fusion primarily exists within um the department of energy office of science so sits next to the people that build the large hit collider making the Higs Bzon.

[00:29:49]>> Yeah.

[00:29:50]>> It's a purely science-driven thing.

[00:29:53]That's not an office that knows how to commercialize anything. That's not an office that's thinking about commercial deployments or energy or how it fits in the grid or supply chains. That's way outside their mandate, >> right?

[00:30:03]>> Um but that's where it lives now. And and frankly, it looks like a science program. It looks pretty much the same as it looked 15 years ago. Mhm.

[00:30:11]>> Um and so that's a bit of a a challenge.

[00:30:14]So there's a few things that have happened. So, you know, there's been an attempt signaled by the last two administrations, >> right, >> to turn this into current administration, um Biden and and Trump, one um turned this into a real energy, >> right, >> push, >> right?

[00:30:30]>> And they've done a few things, you know, they've put a pilot program together that is based on what SpaceX and NASA did.

[00:30:38]>> Yes.

[00:30:38]>> Milestone program, right? That's an exciting program. It has some really good policy implementation, but it's like funded at a level that, you know, for us is >> not it's around error, right? And compared to the Chinese, Japanese, >> it's a it's a few a it's a few hundred million or a few million.

[00:30:56]>> Not even. It's it's it's, you know, sort of 50 million a year.

[00:30:59]>> Yeah.

[00:31:01]>> Right. What would if you scale that up, what would you have them spend it on?

[00:31:04]Are we talking about something like a blended finance structure to blend public and private LPs in a fund to go after potential fusion investments? Is that what you have in mind?

[00:31:17]>> No, it's not even that esoteric. Like actually the playbooks exist for other we've done it before for other energy technologies and other advanced technologies. So, and the the Fusion Industry Association, the um uh the academic group, uh they have a a road map that that pretty much lays this out.

[00:31:36]You know, the sort of total bill here is on order of $10 billion. That's like what leadership infusion is going to cost.

[00:31:42]>> Okay.

[00:31:42]>> Um and that's not like every year.

[00:31:44]That's like, you know, put it in once some care and feeding after, but like most of it all once. And some of it is we got to revitalize the test stands at the national >> Okay. national labs. Okay. So that's a chunk of it.

[00:31:57]>> Yeah.

[00:31:58]>> Some of it is we need to uh do some work on uh some technologies that are not on the science. They're really on the engineering um things by materials and how you get materials at scale, the right materials, >> right? And then a portion of it is to do something that would look like what we did with uh say SpaceX and getting up to the International Space Station in the early 2000s and would look like what we're doing today with Advanced Nuclear and something called the ARDP program. Y >> which would be to help these companies capitalize the first generation of power plants.

[00:32:30]>> I see.

[00:32:31]>> Because that first plant that's really hard to finance.

[00:32:34]>> You're spending a lot of money on concrete and steel and labor. put together a plant that has a lot of stuff that is like stuff that has already been done but has like a key piece that's new that's fusion that has to work >> and the end result of that plant is you sell electricity but >> you can't really pull all the money from all the sales electricity up front because you you can't point to a working plant.

[00:32:55]>> I get it. So that's the type of >> so these kinds of they're almost like industrial commons type investments because >> given the system we have with our deep and liquid and creative financial markets you will naturally attract investors when those things have been done with those constraints removed you could see much more capital crowding in.

[00:33:17]Is that your sense?

[00:33:18]>> Exactly. and and and what we saw same problem of like you're going to build a rocket well let's show the rocket works >> before everyone crowds in private capital into rockets right and that's what the government helped do and the government had a reason to do that which is access to space well government has a reason to have fusion right now which is access to large amounts of abundant energy in a global strategic race where energy is you know terminal for a lot of things um >> let let me ask you one more question about government because um I had under secretary Dario Gil who has been doing some phenomenal stuff with uh Genesis mission uh on the on the podcast and obviously he's prioritized fusion uh as one of the national goals for Genesis mission the goal of which is to accelerate scientific discovery and the productivity of scientific research so way kind of upstream of uh some of the stuff you're working on obviously not completely disconnected um what's your perspective on what Genesis mission is doing in the fusion space and how to fill out the different pieces you need.

[00:34:23]I think you've kind of answered that already, but ju just locate Genesis mission in your your best uh kind of version of what the US government should be doing around fusion.

[00:34:34]>> Yeah, it's it's a you know really good um uh idea that centralized uh AI and how AI can accelerate things. That's that's great. And like we're seeing that still early days to see how that's going to go. You know, it's still shaping up.

[00:34:48]But Fusion's got a bunch of areas where it could contribute where it's got, you know, large scale compute experience.

[00:34:55]It's got, you know, issues like materials and and plasma physics that actually benefit and have already benefited from from scale up and speed up from machine learning and now AI.

[00:35:06]>> But of course, it also has this challenge too where we're not going to compute our way out of building plants, right?

[00:35:10]>> Like we got to build plants. like you can't you need data and like when you're at the forefront the absolute forefront of human civilization the people that go and build the plants to get the data are going to be the ones that get the benefit of all the AI. So like China shows up with a plant that's making data like that's going to be way more important than a Genesis mission that doesn't have that data.

[00:35:31]>> Yeah. Um and so you know there's an impetus here of like we got to get you know stay at the forefront with facilities so that we can actually feed this back because you know instructor game >> such great perspective um uh wonderful I have I have a question so you've talked about magnets and it immediately my kind of antenna went up because you hear the same conversation you know in another arena of emerging technology and people think rare earths critical minerals, critical mineral choke points, Chinese processing of critical minerals and then you know where that story goes. Do you have similar vulnerabilities with the type of magnets you use? Because that is a geostrategic issue that could be looming. Is that relevant?

[00:36:20]>> It's it's not that relevant. Um and and there's a key differentiation here which is when we talk about magnets usually people's experience with magnets are permanent magnets meaning you know a cube that like attracts another cube right all the time right >> and those are made out of rare horse things like nobbium dysphorium >> and they're super important the things you put in motors and and and all sorts of applications.

[00:36:45]>> Yeah.

[00:36:45]>> Um uh that's the type of magnets that we use. Those magnets wouldn't be strong enough.

[00:36:50]>> Yeah. We use magnets that are actually electromagnets. So, okay. Current in a wire. If you like remember grade school, like you know, putting a wire around a nail and putting on a 9volt battery, that's an >> electro. Yeah.

[00:37:01]>> And most people don't ever interact with those except like maybe if you get an MRI, >> right?

[00:37:05]>> Um, and our electromagnet fusion use broadly, they are very strong electromagnets. They're made of like super specialized wire and there are some rare earths in it enough that like it's in the name, >> but it's a it's like a dopen. It's like a a small amount. It's not the main part. So like a fusion machine's total rare earth critical mineral, you know, sort of inventory is like a fraction of an equivalent uh you know, wind farm or solar.

[00:37:35]>> Yeah.

[00:37:37]Um this is that's very helpful and and in a way encouraging. Um, you know, I I listen to folks like Dario. I listen to folks who are in the technology fields and they describe um AI, quantum, and chips as this triumvirate of technologies that have all kinds of kind of mutually self-reinforcing benefits to each other that can have a compound effect. And in a sense, when you're describing fusion, it seems to me that should be part of that mix, right? Um, tell me if I have that right. I know maybe this is too much of an alleyoop for you because you are in the fusion business, but just step back as a scientist, as someone who's been watching the US re-industrialization process underway. Explain to us how fusion is not just one of 13 technologies, but something meaningfully different here.

[00:38:33]>> Right. So, all those technologies we just talked about, super high leverage.

[00:38:37]They all need they all need energy. Mhm.

[00:38:40]>> They need energy all the time. And the more energy you have, the more of those technologies you can deploy.

[00:38:46]>> Energy is the bottleneck.

[00:38:47]>> Yeah.

[00:38:48]>> Right now, the way that we get energy is like by and large, the same way we've got energy for many, many decades, >> right?

[00:38:54]>> It's constrained. It's constrained by, you know, the geography. It's constrained by what's under our feet.

[00:39:00]It's constrained by what happens in the weather. It's constrained by where we put it.

[00:39:04]>> Yeah.

[00:39:05]>> And if you were to say, I want to like 10x the amount of energy that we used, >> right? You couldn't do it with the existing energy system.

[00:39:11]>> Yeah.

[00:39:11]>> You need a a shift >> and like that shift is energy that >> doesn't have a constraint on it. It's energy that you can build that's that is uh you just build it in a factory and fusion can be that it it has the attributes.

[00:39:25]>> Yeah.

[00:39:25]>> But also we're at the very beginning of the fusion story. Like the fusion machines that we look at today, they seem complicated to us. Like we're still figuring them out.

[00:39:34]>> Okay. But the Wright brothers, their plane felt pretty complicated to them, right?

[00:39:39]>> They were still figuring it out, right?

[00:39:40]>> That looks nothing like the plane that I just flew here, [laughter] >> right?

[00:39:44]>> That's awesome. Yeah, I love that.

[00:39:46]>> That is like the power of technical innovation, >> right?

[00:39:49]>> So, it's not just you have fusion now.

[00:39:52]It's like it has this loop in it >> that it will get better. It will get better and better and better because we'll learn more. We're at the birth of something and the things that will make it better are yes building it in factories but there are also things that it's powering.

[00:40:07]>> Yeah.

[00:40:09]>> Yeah. And so uh fast forward a few years from now we have a robust ecosystem that allows provides the incentives for innovation and scaling of fusion like it has for other technologies.

[00:40:24]What is at stake here with fusion? like give us like the the positive scenario on where this could flow both for the US and the rest of the world. Give us what is at stake if we fall behind meaningfully.

[00:40:37]>> Well, you know, the fundamental markets are going to be intelligence and energy and fusion gives you a big lever on the the energy. Uh, and so, uh, in a world where like you know that you can have as much energy when and where you want it, like that's a very unconstrained world, both psychologically, but also just industrial. Like I want to reindust, if you want to re-industriize a country, you're going to have to re-industriize the power.

[00:41:02]>> Yeah.

[00:41:03]>> And like you want to do that in a way that is, you know, built from the ground up on modern technology stack, not in just, you know, old plants. We turn turn them on, right?

[00:41:13]>> Um, [clears throat] >> and so we get to do that with Fusion.

[00:41:15]Fusion offers that opportunity. offers an export market like it it doesn't depend on um you know shipping large amounts of stuff in ships through straits.

[00:41:26]>> Yeah.

[00:41:27]>> Right. Yeah.

[00:41:27]>> You put a plant there, it runs >> Yeah.

[00:41:30]>> and generates electricity, generates you can use power other things. Doesn't have to be electricity, can be other things.

[00:41:35]Um uh and so that's a big potential market. And of course um it's a technology that like will get better and better. And so it's going to be hard to catch up.

[00:41:46]>> Yeah. Yeah, you know, these things that that have a selfreinforcing loop in them, you know, really depends on where you start. And so, um, you know, the idea that you can be like a second mover and watch what something else does.

[00:41:58]Well, yeah, that's really hard to catch up.

[00:42:00]>> Yeah.

[00:42:00]>> And you can see that in chips, you can see that in planes, rockets.

[00:42:03]>> Um, and so, uh, you want to be there.

[00:42:06]You want to be there first.

[00:42:08]>> You want to be there at scale. You want to have the ecosystem. You want to then turn that into a global powerhouse.

[00:42:13]>> Yeah.

[00:42:14]>> Yes. And of course, if you don't, doesn't mean someone else won't.

[00:42:18]>> That's right.

[00:42:19]>> Um, and and that could could shift a lot of things.

[00:42:23]>> I got to ask you about your journey. I mean, you started as a scientist, you're now doing this with CFS. Like, you're you're a manufacturer, you're an entrepreneur, you're really building a supply chain. Like, just get personal for a second. How did you get to do this? Like, what was the pathway for you? And what was your motivation?

[00:42:43]because this is not easy stuff.

[00:42:46]>> I'm I'm still at, you know, I'm still a scientist and like this is >> Yeah.

[00:42:50]>> most powerful idea that that humans have done is a testable hypothesis, right? So like we're running a big experiment.

[00:42:56]>> Yeah.

[00:42:56]>> Right.

[00:42:57]>> Um and it just isn't an experiment that's just, you know, quantum physics.

[00:43:01]An experiment about policy and industrialization. Yeah.

[00:43:06]>> Innovation, right? And the goal is to like make that a clean and high probability experiment.

[00:43:12]>> And so that's the way I go about it. And then like as part of that because the mission is so so big um you can hire great people.

[00:43:20]>> So while we do at CFS all those things you talk about >> Yeah.

[00:43:23]>> you know I'm not an expert in all those things right >> but I've been able to find world experts and they've found world experts and it's built a a robust now company. It's over a thousand people um from a wide range of industries that are all adding their viewpoint and expertise about like well how should the fusion industry work?

[00:43:42]>> Yeah. And in the process, you know, building a plant, factory, running the factory, >> supply chain, doing the the PhD level science, engaging with the governments, all those things that you need to have a fusion fusion industry. We built a capability here that, you know, it's common fusion systems. It's not, you know, Commonwealth fusion device.

[00:44:03]>> Tremendously inspiring, Bob. I hope you'll come to CSIS when you're next in Washington and continue to educate us. I wish you the best. It's a phenomenal story and journey and one that's not only great for you and your company, but really great for this country. So, best wishes.

[00:44:20]>> Thanks for having me.

[00:44:21]>> Thank you for listening to this conversation with Bob Mumgard. You can find this episode of Betting on America and more on csis.org, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Naveen Girish Shanka reminding you that everyone has a role to play in the tech race.

[00:44:38]>> [music]