Commodity Market Updates with Kunal Shah - Head of Research (Commodity)

[00:00:20]Om Hello Everyone This is Kunal Shah of Commodity Research from Nirmal Bang We do this weekly webinar three times in a week Monday Wednesday and Friday where we try to navigate you about the outlook on commodities what are the possible trends about you should be doing.

[00:01:20]So first of all, we saw progress on this peace deal over the weekend.

[00:01:27]Where it has been said that the terms and conditions between the US and Iran have been finalized and this deal will be signed by the US and Iran in Switzerland on Friday. So because of this we have seen optimism across all markets.

[00:01:44]Gold and silver have continued their upside.

[00:01:47]I told you on Friday as well that it looks like it's headed towards 44,400.

[00:01:52]Silver is seen moving towards 7475. So the bullish trend will continue from the international point of view and the Indian rupee will be appreciated.

[00:02:05]Due to this, gains in the domestic market will be less but it will continue to move up.

[00:02:13]So still the view is to buy dips in gold and silver.

[00:02:17]Gold around 4400 to 4450 on COMEX and MCX, if that should translate to 2 to 3% upside and silver I think 73 to 74, so around 5 to 6% silver can increase further. If the rupee appreciates by 1% then the gain will be less.

[00:02:38]Now talking about crude oil. So crude oil WTI almost broke $80 once today and $83 so I feel that crude oil can have a maximum downside of $34.

[00:02:56]WT is at $76 and Brent is around $80 and I think it's bottoming out.

[00:03:02]Because the G7 nations have been selling their inventory continuously for the last three months, I feel that these people will have to gradually fill their inventory again and to fill the inventory they will have to buy oil. So I feel that oil may see a further decline of 3 to 4% but it should not fall more than that because two factors are the main ones. Demand from China was weak and everyone was continuously getting goods from the US, Europe and Japan from their reserves.

[00:03:41]So right now, as soon as the hormones open, the flow of oil will gradually increase. It will take three months for production from the Middle East to increase by three to four million barrels.

[00:03:53]So I think it will remain under pressure in the short term but not in a long term recession. If we talk about metals, my view on metals was also bullish.

[00:04:09]Accept Aluminum. I had told you that aluminium will not be able to rise much and if you see the data, aluminium is the only metal which could not rise much, all other metals are rising rapidly. So aluminium is down by ₹11 today compared to other commodities. So when this conflict started, what happened in this conflict was that when Iran carried out a retaliatory strike, the aluminium smelters everywhere in the Middle East, including in the UAE, were shut down.

[00:04:44]So the production was reduced by approximately 5 million tonnes.

[00:04:47]So now as this war is coming to an end, the hopes of this production gradually starting will increase. So because of this I feel that gradually from here we have seen a steep fall in the prices of aluminium today.

[00:05:06]I feel that there will not be a very aggressive steep fall from here but there is space for four or five more falls. So around this should stabilize at 357.

[00:05:22]Around 355, I see aluminum stabilizing.

[00:05:25]So my view on copper is bullish.

[00:05:28]Copper should be bought on dip. If it decreases by ₹10 then it should be bought and zinc will also remain slightly higher. So other industrial metals will remain bullish. I have no bearish view on copper.

[00:05:38]So whatever has happened is bullish for other metals ex aluminum. And I told you about aluminium also.

[00:05:47]Secondly, I am seeing another minus point in copper that as the supply of hormones becomes normal then the supply of sulphuric acid will gradually increase. So whatever copper smelters have been closed due to non-availability of sulphuric acid, they will gradually start functioning.

[00:06:07]So the producers will project a slight increase in copper production after the end of the war. So copper may also come down by 2025 but its underline is very bullish.

[00:06:24]I will quickly answer the questions now.

[00:06:28]Sir, at what level should one buy gold and silver? I do not look at the technical levels but in my opinion, gold should be bought below ₹200-₹300 and silver below $400.

[00:06:37]Hello Kunal ji. Now which side is silver looking bullish? It looks set to go up to $74.

[00:06:43]Naresh Soni ji sir, what is the view on silver for Friday, there is still a bullish view on silver. Target of 7475 Kunal Bhai Friday prediction was thumbs up. Thank you very much. Copper will come for Rs 1500, Shailesh Bhai. Copper target will be 1500. It may decrease by ₹1.

[00:07:02]But overall attention is fast. Sir, the deal between US and Iran will be done now.

[00:07:06]Imtiaz ji, if inflation also comes down then yes. Yes, all this will happen gradually. It will not happen immediately. Now when the data comes next month, inflation will be reduced.

[00:07:15]So the probability of rate high will decrease and the probability of rate cut will gradually increase. Vishal Kapoor ji Silver Kunal ji how are you?

[00:07:26]What will the silver range be? So in my opinion it should not go below $67 and should go up to $4 to $75.

[00:07:32]Sir why base pack suddenly became weak intraday? You had mentioned about aluminium but I had mentioned about copper, exactly copper, similarly in copper if the traffic becomes normal again then the supply of sulphuric acid will increase and as the supply of sulphuric acid increases then the production at all the copper plants which were closed due to the availability of sulphuric acid will slowly start increasing, so in this expectation we have seen correction in copper in the market also.

[00:08:02]Copper is my view unchangeable. I am bullish on copper overall.

[00:08:07]Even aluminum has my attention on the upside. But in the near term, some pressure will remain big in aluminium.

[00:08:14]Sir please tell me the base matter positioning. A slight correction may take it down by another ₹1. Copper does n't look any more bearish than that.

[00:08:24]Any trade conviction on your target basis?

[00:08:28]Gold and silver seem to take me further up the ladder.

[00:08:33]So I think any some Gupta ji can do zinc by wood by zinc. There is room for growth of four to five to four 5%. It may increase by ₹4-₹5. Shailesh Salunke ji sir will the gold be worth ₹ lakh? It seems difficult to say.

[00:08:53]Sukh Edu Blocks Kunal Bhai good news for market now his level and we level silver level to enter for the investment in ETF 68 $9 all looks good. Ram Prakash Soni ji sir, you had said on Friday that there will be a rise in gold and silver and that has come. Thank you very much Ram Prakash ji. Sir your view Pradeep Kumar Bhutada ji sir copper gold silver bot on wednesday after seeing your video please suggest I am feeling bullish in gold and silver and trail my stop loss and copper ₹120 maximum down side after that there is bullish so I think I have answer to all the same question mostly the question from USDAR you can sell it it will come down a little more so thank you everyone. See you on Wednesday.

[00:09:52]Till then have a great time and that's it.

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