Strong US economic data, such as May nonfarm payrolls beating expectations with March and April revised up by 93K, can shift market expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes, while geopolitical tensions like the Israel-Iran conflict create additional market volatility; AI sector stocks may enter consolidation after initial gains due to lack of fresh catalysts, with key volatility triggers including CPI, PPI, earnings reports, and major corporate events.
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Tensions Resurface | MACRO TRADING DESKAdded:
So, so value macro trading desk. US equities remain caught between macro pressure >> [music] >> and the AI trade. Over the weekend, Israel and Iran escalated again. Israel struck Beirut, crossing Trump's [music] previous red line. Iran then launched its first large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel since the April ceasefire. Before Israel responded Monday morning with air strikes on Iran.
Trump is now urging restraint, [music] telling Iran it has fired enough missiles and should return to the negotiating table. In the US, [music] May nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with March and April revised up by 93,000 jobs. The labor market remains stable, supported by the manufacturing recovery. Employment is no longer [music] a clear reason for Fed cuts, and markets are starting to price more hike risk. Still, [music] yields moved only modestly. The two-year rose 10 basis points, and the 10-year rose five. Friday's decline looked more like crowded tech profit taking, Broadcom, Google issuance, Meta issuance rumors, and Nvidia memory capacity headlines all pressured AI names.
>> [music] >> AI is not broken, but after compute X, the sector lacks fresh catalysts and may enter consolidation. Watch CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, Oracle earnings, >> [music] >> and SpaceX listing headlines as key volatility triggers. On Sodexo, watch US tech 100, oil, gold, Bitcoin, Mag 7, and AI-linked assets.
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