3-0 Yesterday! Sunday's MLB Best Picks and Predictions for May 10th!

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[00:00:00]Welcome back everyone. It is Sunday, May 10th in the MLB. Our best plays are incoming as always. My name is Austin, joined by Logan and today we are joined by your guys favorite special guest. Get it on out Logan. Yeah, baby. A three and0 sweep. Exactly what we needed to bounce back. Kyle Harrison's under sweat free. Nats Marlins over sweat free. And Nick Curts cashing his first AB. That is a three and0 sweep. We love to see it back in the green today. Now we're on a Sunday slate looking where we got to lock in and deliver the people some winners. And it is Mother's Day. So, happy Mother's Day to all the mothers out there. We probably got about a whole three watching the video. So, if that's you, we appreciate you. We love you. We We uh we're going to deliver a two and0 little winning day for you today. So, let's get the job done, Logan. Let's do it. I'm going to let you lead things off. You had a great over yesterday. You got another one today. Where you headed?

[00:00:47]Yeah, it's as you mentioned, it's Mother's Day. So, happy happy Mother's Day to to them all out there. Let's deliver a winning day. A half unit for me today, though. It's Mets and Diamondbacks over eight and a half minus 115 odds on DraftKings. I mentioned a half unit. I loved my over yesterday like and and it and it paid it. It It did. It It wasn't really a sweat bet.

[00:01:07]This one I like a little bit less. And it is a Sunday in baseball. Austin and I preach this all the time. It's like a weird It's a weird day on the slate.

[00:01:15]Getaway day for most teams. But I think we get a kind of a bucking of the trend of what we've seen the first two games of the series. Virtually no offense. But Sunday is kind of where the trends go to die. I mean, if you you see a lot of high-scoring series, sometimes on Sunday you get like a three to one ball game out of nowhere. I'm hoping we kind of get a a flurry of runs in this game. And at surface level, if you look at these two starters on paper, Brazaban right now is scheduled to be the starter for the Mets and uh and on the other side, it's Edward Rodriguez. If you look at those two eras just kind of head-to-head, it's not telling your brain you're taking over. It's two sub3As.

[00:01:51]But behind Brazobond is David Peterson, who the Mets have already said should be the the bulk uh middle relief guy in this one. And you know, early on in the season, I've had amazing success fading David Peterson. He comes in with a 6.29 ERA, 1.6 whip. In incredibly bad numbers, Arizona already saw him earlier this season, five earn runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks. So, they've seen him before and they've already absolutely tagged him. Can they do that again today? Because what what we've been seeing the trend with a lot of these teams is they've been hiding their bad starting pitcher behind an opener. We saw it with Latell yesterday in the in the Nats game. I told you I I want to fade Latell. As soon as he came in, boom, the run started coming from the Marlins. It was It's just a funny how that works. Hopefully that's what we see similar in this one. Opponents are hitting 381 off of Peterson sinker, 292 off his foram. I mean, it's just like those those are your like bread and butter pitches and he's just not not getting batters out on them.

[00:02:50]Diamondbacks have crushed lefties this year. First in batting average, six in OPS, seven to WRC plus versus lefties.

[00:02:56]It it's like whoever they bring in, even like besides David Peterson, if they bring in any sort of lefty, I think the Diamondbacks can get to him. And again, there's a guy like Sha Maniah lurking somewhere in the pen as well. I think I think it doesn't matter who they who they put out there. Brazon has just the opener. I think this offense is it's kind of been in a little bit of a slump, but David Peterson could be the slump buster they've they've been needing because the Diamondbacks, like I said, they just haven't been putting up a ton of runs right now. This in my opinion, little bit of a buy low spot on this offense because they they're we know what they're capable of. On the other side, Edward Rodriguez starts for the Diamondbacks. 2.5 RA 4.22 FIP 5.03 Sierra. So what what what when I look at baseball, you can look at eras, you can look at fip, you can look at whip, you can look at Sierra. There are so many other metrics besides eras that can tell you kind of how good or bad a pitcher may be pitching for. You can guys can go research FIP and CR all you want, but basically they're just different metrics of saying how good or bad a pitcher is, taking out some different factors in there. I think those those other numbers besides the ERA is kind of telling the story of I think Eduardo Rodriguez is is a little bit lucky with that sub3 RA. I just think he's a regression candidate as the season goes on. I faded him before. I've had some somewhat success against him. You look at his his strikeout his strikeout rate is low. His walk rate is high. Three plus walks in four straight games. So sometimes you get away with that. Sometimes the teams don't really make you pay for that.

[00:04:29]Other times, three walks can result in a five five run inning in in a hurry. Now, we know this Mets team Mets offense bad.

[00:04:36]I that's just breaking news. Mets offense has been bad this year. But can they be turning a corner against lefties? I think so. 250 batting average in their last five versus lefties, which is better than their season average, 219 batting average versus lefties. So, really, they they were abysmal versus lefties to start the year. I think recently we could see a lot of these, you know, bats wake up against Eduardo Rodriguez. Again, a guy that I just don't trust to have consistent strikeout against. I think his last one he had a ton of KS. I just don't really see that uh in in his in this start. The the Mets, then we go to the bullpen, too, because once these two starters come out, uh well, Brazabond, then Peterson, then maybe someone else. The Mets are 13th in bullpen ERA, likely down uh Craig Kimbell and Warren. Warren is one of their better bullpen arms. So they're they're going to be missing a couple of those guys. There are some really suspect ERA guys in that Mets bullpen that I really hope the Diamondbacks can get to Peterson early and then get to some of those mediocre bullpen arms. And then the Arizona 19th in bullpen RA likely down Clark and their closer Seawald. I'd be surprised if Seaw pitches. He's he's supposedly taxed. And with when you're missing your closer, it kind of just like shuffles the the bullpen around in a really uncomfortable manner. Arizona plays again Monday as well. So, I really think we could see some really B and Ctier arms out of that Arizona bullpen. The Mets could score late in this one. So, I think we get runs all throughout this one. Love the over as my favorite play on this Sunday slate. But Austin, you got a prop. Where you going?

[00:06:04]>> Yeah, we got one hits, runs, and RBI's prop. I tried to find another outs prop for us today. We've been crushing the unders. But look, when there's not one on the board, there's a reason I don't force one every single day because sometimes the outs can be all over the place. But let's talk all about this guy who plays out in LA. We're taking Azie Alb's obviously of the Atlanta Braves over one and a half hits, runs, and RBI's currently minus 129 on DraftKings.

[00:06:26]So, I'll give you a couple leans in just a few minutes. I just couldn't decide on a bunch of different guys and sometimes on Sunday when you take the bigname guys to just get the day off. That's happened plenty of times where they're just not in the lineup or it's just not a great day for him because you get earlier start times and stuff like that. But I really wanted to back Azie Alb's against Justin Robleski, a lefty. And the reason why is Azie Albies has crushed lefties this season, batting.381 with over one OPS. And in fact, he's over this line two or more HRRS in 12 of 14 starts against left-handed pitchers. Now, Robleski and you could argue Bryce Elder on the other side pitching for the Braves. Those are two guys do some regression. If you look at Justin Robleski, the guy is pitching to a 1.25 RA. If he doesn't get injured and he's a sub two RA at the end of the year, I I mean we I might never show up again because it's just not going to happen.

[00:07:16]His expected RA is a 4.24 and he's first percentile and whiff percentage, second in K percent. So again, the guy that's not getting swinging misses. Now you're facing a Braves lineup that they have crushed righties, they've crushed lefties, there's a reason they lead the league in runs per game or they're up in the top three. I don't exactly remember where they are in that shuffle right now. Again, Azie isn't a guy that's going out there, you know, putting 100 plus exit villas, but what he's doing is hitting where the defense isn't, which is just as good as, you know, hitting that hard contact. And what I really like is the spot he's going to bat in the lineup. Yesterday, they put uh Mauricio Duban batting leadoff. I think they'll probably do that again today against a lefty. It probably be Duban, Baldwin. I would be I would expect Alb's and then Matt Olsen. So, we're sandwiched between Baldwin who hits lefties really well. Matt Olsen who is as dangerous as it gets right now. So Azy's going to continually get pitches to hit or coming up with guys on base asking him to put the ball in play and do the do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do the job and the pitches he's going to see a four seamer slider and a curveball all three pitches he hits pretty well Justin Robleski has struggled against lefties this season so again Olsen and Baldin should have their chances and especially if they're hitting the ball well we get more chances for Azie if he gets on base or to get guys in scoring position for him to deliver with just one hit yesterday broke a mini twoame hitless skid with two hits, two RBI's, and a run. So, big five HRs for him. And I think this is a sneaky good spot for him to get the job done. So, Azie, big fan today. I think he gets the job done. I love Logan's over. Those are two official picks for Sunday slate of action. In terms of some other leans I had before we get on out of here, uh I looked at some lefties versus Chris Basset. I wanted to bet on Nick Curtz again, but he's at a two and a half line and I'm like, two and a half, not really what I want to do. Um, Tyler Sodestrom is another lefty, but he just isn't seeing the ball well for the A's, but like Chris Bass is getting tattooed by lefties. Another one, lefties versus Andrew Abbott. Little weird one is Abbott's a lefty as well, but really the only one you can trust on the Astros is Yordon and his lines are a little bit unplayable. Hasn't also, the Reds are not afraid to walk him consistently either. And then lefties versus Kade Kavali. I think he's given up a 380 batting average. So, looked at Xavier Edwards, looked at Kyle Sters. Kyle Sters had a big game yesterday. Can he do it again today? Feels like Sters has a decent batting average, but all the hits come in one game and I feel like yesterday might have been a game late.

[00:09:34]So ultimately, I like Alb's a lot. I'm just going to roll with him. Not going to force a ton onto a Sunday card.

[00:09:40]Tomorrow, another short slate. And then probably Tuesday, you see it's back to full slates. It's three, five, four, five picks on the card. But either way, we appreciate you guys for tuning in.

[00:09:48]Thank you guys again. Have a great Mother's Day as tell your mother you love her. And uh hopefully you guys have a great Sunday. We'll see you guys back in tomorrow hopefully with a little bit of a mini little 2 and 0 broom out.

[00:09:57]We'll see you guys then. Peace out.