ILTV Security Brief | Trump To Iran: Agree Now Or Face Massive Bombing

追加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:12]Welcome to YTV Security Brief. I'm Khalibben Davided. Each week we focus on the latest developments in security and defense relating to Israel in the Middle East impacting on this region and beyond. And we start with our top items of the past week.

[00:00:28]Israel readies its air defenses as the US Navy attempts to reopen the Straight of Hormuz by escorting tankers through the waterway. After Iran fires on shipping in the Gulf and renews its air strikes on the UAE, President Trump pauses Project Freedom, claiming there is some progress towards a peace deal.

[00:00:47]Now, despite another round of planned talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese envoys, the IDF continues to clash with Hezbollah as the terror movement violates the ceasefire in the security zone. An Israeli air strike eliminates two terrorists on a motorcycle and the IDF destroys several buildings housing Hisba forces.

[00:01:08]Troops from the IDF's 205th Brigade destroy eight underground terror tunnels in northern Gaza, eliminating dozens of terrorists and forces of the Crusher Brigade of the IDF neutralize five armed terrorists from Hamas's Bleia Battalion as they approach soldiers along the Green Line border. Israel announces the purchase of new squadrons of F-35 IAD stealth capable jets and F15 IIA heavy strike aircraft from the US for billions of dollars dramatically reinforcing the Israel Air Force's arsenal and the IIAF gets a new top gun. Major General Omar Tishler assumes command of the air force replacing outgoing chief Tomare Bar. And now our big story. The week started with President Trump trying to break Iran's resolve with project freedom, reopening the straight of Hormuz with US naval forces while also blockading Iranian ports. The Tehran regime responded by attacking shipping in the Gulf and resuming air strikes on the UAE, shaking an already fragile ceasefire. Israel prepared for a resumption of the war.

[00:02:14]But yesterday, Trump announced that while the blockade will continue, he was pausing Project Freedom, claiming that great progress has been made toward a final agreement with Iran. Now, the Tyran regime denies any such progress, but Trump has just tweeted that a final deal has been laid at the table of the Iranians, and it's time for them to accept it or face retaliation. Let's listen to what President Trump had to say earlier.

[00:02:42]They didn't shoot the ships that were guarded by us. I'll tell you that. We knocked down a lot of missiles. So, what happens is that we have uh a situation where we have total control. As you know, the blockade's been amazing. It's like a piece of steel. Nobody's going to challenge the blockade. And uh I think it's working out very well. We're going to see. I can say this, Iran wants to make a deal. What I don't like about Iran is they'll talk to me with such great respect and then they'll go on television. They'll say, "We did not speak to the president. We did not I just spoke to we did not speak to the president."

[00:03:20]>> Well, joining us for more is reserves IDF Colonel Avital Leavich. He is off now the director of AJC Jerusalem.

[00:03:28]Avietal, thank you for joining us. Uh first of all, I do want to ask you uh events moving quickly now. President Trump claiming there's some kind of deal, a fi he seems to think a final offer from the US on the table for Iran to take it without shooting. Uh I think the what is in Trump's mind here? How convinced are you that we may be going to a resumption of the war despite the fact it's pretty clear that he really wants to make some kind of deal right now?

[00:04:01]>> So let's talk about the strategy with Iran. The strategy has actually a few layers. The first layer and the immediate one and the lengthy one was the military action and this layer of pressure and actually uh targeting different Iranian assets was supposed to bring the Iranians to the negotiating table and make them engage with some sort of concessions. That was not efficient enough. After 40 long days in which Iranian different assets, strategic targets, nuclear scientists, besiege, revolutionary guards were targeted day in and night in that was not sufficient. Therefore, there is now the second layer of pressure and that is the economic pressure. What President Trump has been actually doing is he has been talking in the Iranian language, the economic language because Khv if you remember when the Iranian delegation came to Pakistan for the first talks at the round table a few weeks ago half of their delegation consisted from economic experts. So the Iranian goal is to get money back. They need the economy to revive to relum. They have sanctions which need to be lifted. They have a lot of assets which are frozen. So this is their main issue. Now the big question remains here the enriched uranium. Will Iran be willing to give it up or not?

[00:05:34]And will President Trump would be ready to negotiate in this tweet that he mentioned on this issue of the enriched uranium? Well, that definitely that is a sort of red line for Israel and it seems it has been for President Trump. But how concerned should Israel be though that an agreement may be reached on that issue, but none of the other issues that are of concern with Israel uh for Israel, the uh uh Iran's arming and support of its terror proxies across the region, its ballistic missile program, and the fact that if an agreement is reached that includes the lifting of sanctions on Iran, uh that will strengthen the regime to the point where it could develop these other threats against Israel.

[00:06:18]So you're mentioning two issues that were not even a part of the JCPOA agreement in 2015. The proxies, we're talking about the Houthis. We're talking about the pro-Iranian Iraqi militias. We are talking about of course which has been consistently firing at Israel and we'll touch upon that later. That has not been a part of the 2015. But all of these examples are not an existential threat for Israel. the only issue which is a pure existential threat on Israel and by the way not only on Israel because although Israel is the focus there are other countries within this range it could be European countries it could be our Gulf neighbors and it could be other Arab countries as well that issue of enriched uranium that is sufficient to something like 10 to 11 nuclear bombs this is the existential threat and this is an issue that Israel cannot agree to if this will be excluded from any agreement which I I don't think it will be but if it will be then Israel will need to reserve uh the power to go back and retrieve that enriched uranium >> and let's look at the option that uh Iran does not move ahead with uh or agree to the removal of that enriched uranium and we do see a renewal of US strikes on Iran. uh what what do you think Israel's role will be? I mean, there's a lot of speculation about will Iran attack Israel and if Iran does not attack Israel, should Israel be a part of a renewed air campaign against Iran?

[00:07:58]>> Well, we saw in the last 48 hours how desperate and pressured Iran is. And how did we see that? First of all, they threatened every hour a different senior Iranian leader came to the media with a different threat. One of the threats you recall was the following night is going to be a very tough night. The whole area will burn. And of course, nothing happened that night. It's obvious that the Iranians are not looking to further engage militarily with the US and Israel. For that, they chose a relatively easy target, which is the Gulf States. It was Oman and the UAE. So of course they will not do anything to trigger an Israeli attack or an American attack uh because they understand the price they will pay and they have paid it 40 consecutive days uh in March. So I don't see them making those kind of mistakes. However, if as President Trump just tweeted, if we will resume the fighting, I think it will be very different from what we have seen thus far. It will be powerful. It will be strong. It will be on targets that have not been targeted yet. And again, the ultimate goal will be to bring back the Iranians to the negotiating table with concessions.

[00:09:16]>> All right. Well, uh, Avietal, since you, uh, mentioned it earlier, let's move from the directly from the US Iran war to an interrelated conflict. Israel's battle against. Now, despite a US imposed ceasefire, IDF forces are still clashing with the Iranbacked terror movement as it continues to violate the truce terms uh with its operations in South Lebanon.

[00:09:38]Meanwhile, Israeli and Lebanese envoys are set to meet again in Washington for a third round of talks this week. Here's US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Lebanon situation.

[00:09:50]>> There's no problem between the Lebanese government and the Israeli government.

[00:09:52]Israel doesn't claim any land in Lebanon belongs to them. And by and large, I think a peace deal between Lebanon and Israel is imminently achievable and should be. The problem with Israel and Lebanon is not Israel or Lebanon. It's Hezbollah. This is not new. This has been going on for a very long time. What is our hope? Our hope is to engage the Lebanese and Israeli governments under, you know, our mediation at the table to achieve this. and that is having Lebanese armed forces and a Lebanese government not just with a willingness but with the capability to begin to challenge Hezbollah and disarm them because the Lebanese people are also victims of Hezbollah.

[00:10:28]>> Avietal again we have another ceasefire a sort of shaky ceasefire in name only.

[00:10:34]I mean there are fighting in South Lebanon IDF the IDF is suffering casualties there. uh these talks, they're proceeding, but they're not necessarily leading anywhere. How far much more can this or should the status quo persist in uh Lebanon?

[00:10:53]>> So before I answer your question, I want to maybe remind the viewers of a different history, maybe a more optimistic one because until the 80s, we had an open border with Lebanon. We Israel had an open border with Lebanon and through that border thousands of Lebanese came to work in Israel. The relations were wonderful relations between the two countries but then was founded and the whole situation deteriorated. Now has been accumulating weapons for 40some years. The Lebanese government had received the chance according to the previous ceasefire in November 2024 to actually collect the weapons and make surebala is no longer present in that area. Unfortunately, as we are being seeing now with the IDF activity, the amount of weapons which is still there on the ground is humongous.

[00:11:47]The presence of terrorists on the ground is still very much there. The estimation is that there are many hundreds of them on the ground operating from uh villages all across the south Lebanon area. Now here is the challenge.bala still has massive capabilities. Is not kamas. These are not 30,000 people. This is a 100,000 people with 40 something years of flow of cash which actually helped and supply different kinds of uh uh military assets, military weapons and so on. They can also fire north of the Leitani River, north of where the area of uh uh the IDF is is there. But here is what I'm hearing through uh uh the Lebanese media in the past 48 hours. I'm actually hearing the president of Lebanon, President Dun, who actually admitted that he's willing to negotiate with Israel. And as Secretary Rubio said, this is true. We have no territorial demands from Lebanon. We are hearing from the Lebanese media that maybe now is not the time to meet Netanyahu in Washington. Maybe the uh the final conclusion will not be relevant to the Lebanese interest. So gradually the voice I'm hearing is actually a voice of maybe not going all the way which is kind of concerning because Israel said we are here. We are extending our head to peace. We are willing to sit together around the table and negotiate. The problem in Lebanon, as in the rest of the region, is the internal divide between the different sectors in Lebanon. We've seen that over and over again. It's not related to Israel. And this is an issue that can can shadow actually the um the chances of success of these future negotiations.

[00:13:39]Let's let's >> let's talk about the chance of success because Secretary Rubio says the perhaps there's a willingness on the part of the Lebanese government or even military to take on Isabella. But he talked about the capability and a lot of questions whether that the Hezbollah is really an army in and of itself. what has to be done in order to at least create a force within Lebanon that is willing that is able to take on Hisbala.

[00:14:11]>> Well, as long as present in the country, I really don't see another option. I don't see hope from that matter because a lot stronger than the Lebanese army.

[00:14:21]And I'll repeat the sentence because it doesn't make sense when you hear it the first time, but let me repeat it. Ala is stronger than the Lebanese armed forces.

[00:14:31]They have more assets. They have more expertise. They have more operational experience because I'll remind you KHV that when the civilian war in Syria took place actually sent thousands of its fighters to get operational experience there on the ground. So as long as present and is not completely erased from the country, I don't really see a chance for future relations between our countries sadly.

[00:14:59]>> Right. I want to move now south to the situation in Gaza. There was a meeting uh yesterday between the so-called border of peace uh set up by President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

[00:15:11]Again, you could see a kind of similar parallel with the situation in Hisbala.

[00:15:16]There's a a ceasefire largely in name only imposed by the US a situation which IDF forces are in constant conflict with terrorists and a the inability to to disarm a terror force. What chances of pro any prog real progress is there on the Gaza front?

[00:15:38]you know, everybody's uh focused on the Iranian issue a little bit on Lebanon and and Gaza is sort of forgotten, but we are seeing a very worrying uh situation in Gaza, especially in the 47% which uh is remained inhabited by Gazans and and Hamas is controlling the area.

[00:15:58]Hamas is controlling the streets. We see armed kamas uh personnel all over the that area those 47% in addition to that they have resumed controlling a part of the aid putting millions again millions and millions in their pockets and why is that critical because as long as they have that money they can pay off additional people of kamas they can recruit additional people which they have in been investing efforts in we see 15 year olds, 16 year olds, 17 year olds recruited uh to Kamas and they are every single corner. They're controlling the bakeries. They're controlling the stores and the people, this is the worst part, KHV, the the local population >> is frightened frightened by Hamas. And as um uh the special envoy um Ladenov said, we need to disarm Hamas and demilitarize Gaza in order to continue to the second phase of the 20 points planned of President Trump, >> right? Um Avital, earlier I mentioned this latest arms purchase, hugely significant for the Israeli Air Force.

[00:17:11]Uh but it does come against a backdrop of increasing uh both I would say political opposition towards Israel certainly among Democrats. We're seeing some trends against Republicans as well as public opinion uh in in some ways turning uh uh against Israel. This also accompanied by expressions of anti-semitism of the like we haven't seen before. I want to ask you because as both someone who is worked with the AJC, a US Jewish organization on these issues, but also as someone who's been involved in the in the with the IDF, how much of a concern this trend has to be to Israel, both as an expression of anti-semitism, but also impacting on the USIsrael relationship, even the security relationship.

[00:18:01]Yeah, I think uh from an Israeli perspective, the relations between Israel and the US are critically strategic important. Uh Israel is an asset for the US in its current location here in the Middle East. in the intelligence it provides in the partnership close partnership it provides in the technology capabilities in the assets it's bring to the table there is no other country in the region like Israel and that's why we see such a close bond between the countries especially in the last uh in the last year or so the problem is as I understand it is the both democratic party and the republican party are overgoing different kinds of internal processes policies which actually affect at the end of the day the longtime relationship with Israel for political reasons for a whole set of reasons which are not talking about the main issue and this is the this is an American interest to have a strong relationship with Israel from the Israeli perspective I expect the Israeli politicians to be bipartisan in their approach and not glorify one party over the other because we understand that the leadership ship changes once we have the Republicans, while we have the Democrats. From an Israeli political perspective, Israel should remain and keep a bipartisan approach. Unfortunately, that is not always the case. In any case, if I'm looking forward to the future, the Israeli government will need to heavily invest in these relations with both parties because as I said, this is critical for Israel's existence here in the region, but also it's a very important interest for America.

[00:19:50]>> Let me ask you, there are some on the other side who look at the current situation. We mentioned three imposed ceasefires basically on Israel by the Trump administration who are concerned that on security issues Israel is losing some of its independence to the US in this situation. What's your feelings on that?

[00:20:08]>> I don't think the issue is independence.

[00:20:09]Uh to be honest when you have lengthy ceasefire the problem is the main problem is that your enemy is actually better prepared for the next round and this is the issue. Therefore, you have to limit those ceasefire. They can be in endless ceasefire because as I mentioned, Kamas is getting ready for the next round in Gaza, recruiting people, rearming, uh distributing new plans, operational plans. Iran is doing the same. Iran is right now doing the same and is trying to regroup after uh this uh current ceasefire as well. So the problem is that when these terror groups come better prepared for the next round instead of being surprised then we are actually weaker when we operate. So I think this is the biggest concern >> right? Uh uh let me just finally ask you 30 seconds. Do you think we're going to get a resumption of the uh US or how prepared should Israel's should be for maybe heading back to their bomb shelters?

[00:21:16]First of all, the resilience in Israel is very high and and one of our expertise is is to from sitting in cafes to running to shelters within seconds. I think we're are very skilled at that.

[00:21:27]Uh, I think that if the current agreement on the table, the current American proposal on the table will be rejected or if the Iranians will try to stall time, then definitely there's a high chance of going back into some kind of a limited in time round with a whole different set of targets, more intense than what we have seen before.

[00:21:49]>> Well, hopefully the key word there will be limited amount of time. Uh, Colonel Avid Taleovich, director of AJC Jerusalem. Thank you for joining us on ILV Security Brief.

[00:22:00]>> Thank you. Thank you, KV.

[00:22:03]>> And now a final word. It was a big week for the Israel Air Force. The government announced a major arms purchase, buying one additional squadron each of F-35 IADER stealth capable jets and F-15 IIIA heavy strike aircraft from the US for billions of dollars. It's a huge investment, but one well worth it. These fighter jets manufactured in their basic form by the American airspace giants Lheed Martin and Boeing and then upgraded with Israeli made technology proved their worth in combat carrying out Israel's devastating air strikes on Iran during operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury. Hailing the acquisition, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared, "These aircraft will strengthen Israel's overwhelming air superiority for decades to come." He also said the government would add 350 billion shekels to the defense budget in order to produce such weapons independently and not be dependent on foreign suppliers. Though it remains to be seen if even with that kind of funding, Israel can develop the manufacturing capability to create such largecale armaments from scratch. But it was another major move in the IAF that is perhaps more significant for the future of this country's defense. The Air Force got a new commander with Major General Omar Tishler taking over from outgoing Air Chief Tomare Bar. Like his predecessors, the 51-year-old Tishler worked his way up through the ranks as a fighter pilot, leading Israel's successful air strike on Syria's nuclear facility in 77. He went on to serve as the IIAF head of air operations and chief of staff, overseeing the planning and execution of operations Rising Lion and Epic Fury against Iran. Tishla's promotion was made on his outstanding record within the security branch he will lead. This was a choice decided on merit alone without any other political considerations. It's the kind of exemplary appointment that should always be the case when it comes to selecting any of Israel's leading security and defense postings from the cabinet on down. But unfortunately that is not always the case. At least though this remains the case when it comes to the air force. So yes, of course it's vital that Israel acquire the world's best aircraft and then add on to that its unique cuttingedge technology while constantly expanding its own domestic defense industry capability.

[00:24:45]But there's still no substitute for having the world's greatest pilots in the cockpit or the commanders who know best how to utilize all that new technology in the aerial battlefield. At the end of the day, it is that top gun human element that keeps the IAF flying high. So, good luck, Commander Tishler, and thank you for joining ILV Security.